Trust among the Avatars: A Virtual World Experiment,with and without Textual and Visual Cues

We invited “residents” of a virtual world who vary in real‐world age and occupation to play a trust game with stakes comparable to “in‐world” wages. In different treatments, the lab wall was adorned with an emotively suggestive photograph, a suggestive text was added to the instructions, or both a photo and text were added. We find high levels of trust and reciprocity that appear still higher for non‐student and older subjects. Variation of results by treatment suggests that both photographic and textual cues influenced the level of trust but not that of trustworthiness.     

DEALING WITH EARNINGS BRACKET RESPONSES IN HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS – HOW SHARP ARE MIDPOINT IMPUTATIONS?

Earnings functions form the basis of numerous labour market analyses. Non‐response (particularly among higher earners) may, however, lead to the exclusion of a significant proportion of South Africa's earnings base. Earnings brackets built into surveys intend to maintain response rates. Econometric tools to incorporate brackets vary from “simplistic” imputation to interval regressions. Coefficient differences are investigated here to establish reliable remedies. Monte‐Carlo simulations suggest that “simple” methods fail only under extreme skewness and when a substantial number of right‐censored observations appear in the sample. Testing procedures applied to LFS data reveal that in practice coefficients are virtually invariant to the proposed methods.     

A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy*

Abstract. This research re-examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts through a comparison of their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), O'Brien (1990), and Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, Dyckman, and Lakonishok 1978; O'Brien 1988; Brown 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist. In our analysis, we control for the differences in recency of analysts' forecasts using two different approaches. First, we use an estimated generalized least squares estimation procedure that captures the recency-induced effects in the residuals of the model. Second, we use a matched-pair design whereby we measure the relative forecast accuracy of an analyst by comparing his/her forecast error to the forecast error of another randomly selected analyst making forecasts for the same firm in the same year on or around the same date. Using both approaches, we find that differential forecast accuracy does exist amongst analysts, especially in samples with minimum forecast horizons of five and 60 trading days. We show that these differences are not attributable to differences in the forecast issuance frequency of the financial analysts. In sum, after controlling for firm, year, forecast recency, and forecast issuance frequency of individual analysts, the analyst effect persists. To validate our findings, we examine whether the differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts persist in holdout periods. Analysts were assigned a “superior” (“inferior”) status for a firm-year in the estimation sample using percentile rankings on the distribution of absolute forecast errors for that firm-year. We use estimation samples of one- to four-year duration, and consider two different definitions of analyst forecast superiority. Analysts were classified as firm-specific “superior” if they maintained a “superior” status in every year of the estimation sample. Furthermore, they were classified as industry-specific “superior” if they were deemed firm-specific “superior” with respect to at least two firms and firm-specific “inferior” with respect to no firm in that industry. Using either definition, we find that analysts classified as “superior” in estimation samples generally remain superior in holdout periods. In contrast, we find that analysts identified as “inferior” in estimation samples do not remain inferior in holdout periods. Our results suggest that some analysts' earnings forecasts should be weighted higher than others when formulating composite earnings expectations. This suggestion is predicated on the assumption that capital markets distinguish between analysts who are ex ante superior, and that they utilize this information when formulating stock prices. Our study provides an ex ante framework for identifying those analysts who appear to be superior. When constructing weighted forecasts, a one-year estimation period should be used because we obtain the strongest results of persistence in this case.     

Social Position and Distributive Justice: Experimental Evidence

Using a simple, double-blind dictator experiment, we examine the extent to which subjects' choices of distributive shares are influenced by unearned social position. We measure social position by the initial distributive shares (resources) and the subjects' ability to determine the final distributive shares (power). We find that subjects' decisions are consistent with Rawls' (1971) hypothesis that individuals expect a greater share when in a position with more power and initial resources. Finally, we test if subjects' choices under a laboratory veil of ignorance are consistent with Rawls' concept of distributive justice. “Veiled” individuals exhibit preferences that are less risk-averse and have greater variance than Rawls hypothesized.     

Political Party Impacts on Direct Democracy: the 2015 Greek Austerity Referendum

On July 5, 2015, Greek voters were asked whether to approve or reject the terms of an austerity program offered by the European Union (EU) to resolve an ongoing financial crisis. With a turnout rate of 62.5% overall, 61.3% of Greeks voted “no.” While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout’s terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonias to 73.8% in Chanion. This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the “no” vote across Greece’s 56 electoral districts. Our analysis is grounded in public choice theories of why large numbers of people turn out to vote in mass elections. In addition to controlling for standard “instrumental” vote motives, we ask whether political party labels, which serve as summary measures of partisan positioning, and party platforms, which express partisan preferences on ballot questions, are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Holding constant the unemployment rate and average voter age (at the regional level) and the fraction of young people casting ballots for the first time on July 5, 2015 (at the district level), we find that the percentage of ‘no’ votes was reduced significantly by voter support for Greece’s leading pro-austerity party (New Democracy) in the previous nationwide election held in January 2015. In contrast, voter support in January for the anti-austerity party (Syriza), led by sitting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, had no measurable impact on July’s referendum results. This finding offers support for both instrumental and expressive theories of voting and bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided by an institution of direct democracy.     

Agricultural Trade,Development and Toxic Risk

This paper uses a large database of laboratory test results to investigate the sources of international variation in pesticide residues on food products. We specify and estimate a model that incorporates contamination effects attributable to product pest sensitivity, pesticide toxicity levels and characteristics of the producing country. Among the latter, our model tests for the effects of income, education and openness to trade. We find large and highly significant “generic” differences in contamination of food products, reflecting pesticide applications that vary with pest sensitivity. Controlling for these differences, we find strong effects for income and education. Pesticide residues on agricultural products fall sharply as income increases, but rise significantly with education. Our model attributes the latter effect to the choice of more capital-, skill- and pesticide-intensive technologies in better-educated societies. We find no significant impact for openness to trade. Our results suggest that workers and consumers in low-income societies have far higher exposure to toxic pesticides than their counterparts in high-income societies, but that consumers in the latter experience significant increases in toxic exposure risk as agricultural trade with developing countries expands. The paper concludes with a discussion of appropriate instruments for resolving a potentially serious trade-environment conflict on this front.     

MANAGERIAL STRUCTURE OF BUSINESS GROUPS IN TAIWAN: THE INNER CIRCLE SYSTEM AND ITS SOCIAL ORGANIZATION

This paper examined the management structure of Taiwan's business groups. The objective was to determine how independent group firms coordinate their business. Employing longitudinal data of the top 100 groups, I investigated the “inner circle” system and its evolution. I found that group leaders occupied overlapped positions at the director rather than at the manager level, which implied a separation of strategic planning and routine administration. Secondly, the dynamics of inner circle management did not hinge upon the group president as in the Korean chaebol, nor on the norm of corporate community as in the Japanese keiretsu, but on the social ties in the inner circle. Analyzing the background of the leaders indicated that family never dominated the scene even in the early years, and their significance decreased along with environmental changes. The transition in Taiwan in the late 1980s motivated business groups to introduce more “outside” talent into decision‐making.     

Contests for Ranks: Experimental Evidence

We use experiments to analyze multiple dimensions of the relationship between rank incentives and individual performance. In our experiment (i) rank is defined as subjects' relative position in their group based on their performance in a real effort task and (ii) subjects' earnings are independent of their performance. We find that any rank incentive improves mean performance than no rank incentive, and this result is independent of the group size. In the large group, the mean performance increases strictly in all except at the highest rank incentive, but in the small group the mean performance increases weakly in rank incentives. Finally, the mean performance is significantly higher in the large than in the small group because of a higher “prestige effect.” In additional treatments in which we do not reveal the identity of the status‐prize winners, we find that average performance is identical to that in the baseline treatment without any status prizes. The last result signifies the important role that public revelation plays to enhance the strength of status. The results are important for managerial practices.     

Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?

Economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates. Even so, I believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon “best practices,” stated in the form of “general guidelines” or even “universal principles.” However, “best practices” are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice. So my first conclusion is a cautionary, and negative, one: Specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals, firms, markets, countries, and time that most any attempt to define “best practices” that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations. However, even if economics cannot identify “the” truth, it can often identify “a” truth. So my second conclusion is a more positive one: Economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies, but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories, recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances. I illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work. I conclude with some “best practices” recommendations of my own, recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort.     

Stopping on Nine: Evidence of Heuristic Managerial Decision‐Making in Major League Baseball Pitcher Substitutions

Economic agents who exhibit left digit bias over‐emphasize round numbers. Using data on managers' pitcher substitution decisions in Major League Baseball, I find that managers remove starting pitchers more often when the next pitch will result in a pitch count ending in zero. Unlike counts ending in nine, pitch counts ending in eight do not exhibit higher substitution rates despite the fact that pitchers usually throw multiple pitches before the manager's next decision opportunity. Managers apparently use rules‐of‐thumb that emphasize leftmost digits and ignore at least some future consequences of present actions. However, these significant biases disappear when the stakes are high. I find no evidence of disproportionate substitutions on the nine's in close games, and the final digit of the pitch count does not discontinuously affect the probability of winning. Managers act in a manner consistent with rational inattention, using heuristics only when the stakes are low.     

Asymmetries and state dependence: The impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates

This paper investigates the possible asymmetric response of 5-min intraday JPY/USD exchange rates to macroeconomic news announcements during 1999–2006 when the Japanese money market interest rate was effectively zero. This period provides a unique institutional setting when interest rates may rise but not decline, thereby constraining both endogenous policy reactions to news and private market expectations. Asymmetric responses to news, to the extent that they are important in exchange rate markets as they are in equity markets, would seem particularly likely to be evident during this period. We consider several ways asymmetric responses may be manifested and linked to macroeconomic news during this unusual period. We assess whether the intraday exchange rate responds differently depending on whether the news is emanating from Japan or the US; we consider the state of the business cycle; and we distinguish between “good” and “bad” news.     

Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.     

Employee Movements from Audit Firms to Audit Clients

Regulators have expressed concerns about the “revolving door” between auditors and clients, whereby audit employees move directly from audit firms to audit clients (i.e., “direct alumni hires”). Regulators are concerned that these direct hires could compromise audit quality, partly because these employees could have previously audited their hiring company's financial statements. In contrast, we examine accounting and finance executives who move indirectly from audit firms to audit clients and who could not have previously audited the hiring company's financial statements (i.e., “indirect alumni hires”). We show that indirect hires occur more often than the direct hires that have concerned regulators. We predict and find that both direct and indirect alumni hires are associated with lower rates of executive turnover and audit firm turnover. However, there is no evidence that the reduced rates of executive turnover are explained by managerial entrenchment or that these hires are associated with lower audit quality. Overall, our findings suggest that direct and indirect employee movements from audit firms to audit clients are beneficial to executives, audit clients, and audit firms because they reduce the incidence of costly turnover.     

The Diffusion of a Medical Innovation: Is Success in the Stars?

This paper relates the diffusion of the coronary stent to the presence of prominent or “star” physicians within a local peer group. The paper uses panel data on coronary care in Florida covering the period immediately following the 1995 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the stent, a significant improvement in coronary angioplasty. Adoption timing and utilization varied considerably across doctors between 1995 and 2001. We consider the role of asymmetric social influence among physicians based on professional status. Defining “star” status as having completed residency at a top-ranked hospital, we find that the diffusion of stents by non-stars depends positively on the number of stars practicing contemporaneously at the same hospitals, while we find no social influence in the opposite direction. The findings indicate that lack of local exposure to star physicians may slow adoption, and clustering of stars in a small number of hospitals may entail welfare costs.     

INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME‐SERIES VIEW ACROSS SECTORS USING LONG‐RANGE DEPENDENCE

In this paper I examine the time‐series evolution of the log consumer price index series in South Africa, disaggregating the data by sectors. I examine the time period 1990m1‐2008m12, i.e. focusing on the post‐apartheid period. I used methodologies based on fractional integration using parametric and semiparametric techniques. The results indicate that the (total) inflation rate in South Africa is long memory, with an order of integration in the range (0, 0.5). The same happens with most of the data disaggregated by sectors with values of d above 1 in the log prices. Evidence of I(0) inflation is obtained in some cases for “fruits and nuts”, “vegetables” and “sugar”, and evidence of mean reversion in the log prices is only obtained in the case of “fish and other seafood”.     

Bohn's Test of Fiscal Sustainability of the American State Governments

The dramatic fall in state revenues during the Great Recession and the resultant large budget deficits accentuated concerns about state fiscal sustainability. I employ a model‐based approach proposed by 1998 to test for sustainability. In this approach, a positive and significant reaction of the ratio of primary surplus ratio (s) to lagged debt constitutes a sufficient condition for sustainability. Based on a panel of 48 contiguous states (1961–2008) and several model specifications, I find robust evidence in favor of sustainability. Further analysis suggests that the adjustment of the components of s to debt is asymmetric with the revenue side bearing a heavier burden than the spending side. The response of s is also found to be asymmetric with respect to the level of debt. Finally, the magnitude of the response is larger in states with a higher degree of fiscal stringency in general and “own‐revenue” and “no‐deficit‐carryover” provisions in particular.     

高技术企业研发团队组织租金分享研究

传统“剩余”概念不能完全囊括剩余索取权的“剩余”,为此,本文在分析“剩余”的真实内涵基础上,提出用组织租金来代替传统的“剩余”概念。分享组织租金是企业参与者(尤其是人力资本投入者)资本权利的重要体现,也是对企业参与者的一种强有效的根本激励手段。本文在分析影响研发团队谈判力的人力资本属性和谈判环境基础上,构建了高技术企业中研发团队分享组织租金的谈判模型。     

Productivity Spillovers from FDI in Malaysian Manufacturing: Evidence from Micro‐panel Data*

Using an establishment‐level panel dataset for the Malaysian manufacturing industries for 2000–2004, we argue that differences in the proxies and degrees of foreign shareholdings in measuring foreign presence lead to opposite signs and/or significance of spillover effects. The results show significant evidence of positive productivity spillovers to local establishments in the same industry, based on a broad measure of foreign presence. However, there is no evidence of positive spillover when employment share is used as a proxy for foreign presence. Furthermore, significant negative spillover effects are related to higher employment shares of wholly foreign‐owned establishments. Although there is no significant difference in labor productivity between wholly foreign‐owned and locally‐owned establishments, both majority and minority foreign‐owned establishments have significantly lower levels of labor productivity than locally‐owned establishments in Malaysia.