金融能力、金融决策与贫困

本文利用2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,通过因子分析法构建居民金融能力指数,运用Probit模型、工具变量法和中介效应模型实证分析了金融能力对贫困的影响以及金融能力、金融决策与贫困之间的作用机理。研究发现：（1）无论是绝对贫困还是相对贫困,金融能力能够显著抑制贫困的发生,且城镇地区相较农村地区更明显。（2）金融能力对贫困的影响既存在“抑制效应”,也存在“偏离效应”,两者之间呈现正“U”型关系。（3）经中介效应模型计算可知,在“抑制效应”下,金融能力可以通过改善金融决策来缓解居民贫困状况。具体而言,在三种不同的贫困状况衡量方式下,金融决策的中介效应占比分别为2542%,2296%和2160%。     

INNOVATION AND GROWTH WITH FINANCIAL,AND OTHER,FRICTIONS

The generation of ideas and their implementation are crucial for economic performance. We study this in a model of endogenous growth, where productivity increases with innovation and where the exchange of ideas (technology transfer) allows those with comparative advantage to implement them. Search, bargaining, and commitment frictions impede the idea market, however, reducing efficiency and growth. We characterize optimal policies involving subsidies to innovative and entrepreneurial activity, given both knowledge and search externalities. The role of liquidity is discussed. We show intermediation helps by financing more transactions with fewer assets and, more subtly, by ameliorating holdup problems. We also discuss some evidence.     

BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL METHOD PATENTS, INNOVATION, AND POLICY

Court decisions in the 1990s are widely viewed as having opened the door to a flood of business method and financial patents at the US Patent and Trademark Office, and to have also impacted other patent offices around the world. A number of scholars, both legal and economic, have critiqued both the quality of these patents and the decisions themselves. This paper reviews the history of business method and financial patents briefly and then explores what economists know about the relationship between the patent system and innovation, in order to draw some tentative conclusions about their likely impact. It concludes by finding some consensus in the literature about the problems associated with this particular expansion of patentable subject matter, highlighting the remaining areas of disagreement, and reviewing the various policy recommendations.     

金融中心形成和金融人才聚集

金融人才聚集是金融中心形成的必要条件。首先,本文提出了金融人才的二元分布规律,即金融人才的聚集和分散规律。然后,本文从金融人才的数量、占就业人员的比重、空间聚集度和人才密度等角度,对世界和我国的主要金融中心的金融人才分布特点进行了分析。最后,从人才的角度分析,上海、北京和深圳建设国际金融中心,成都、西安和武汉建设区域金融中心,杭州建设特色金融中心的条件,并提出相关建议。     

DISTRIBUTIVE CONFLICT AND MONETARY POLICY

This paper develops a public choice theory of monetary policy and compares it with political-macroeconomic outcomes theory. The paper develops support for the public choice theory from recent historical evidence. It then employs this theory to explain the difficulty of effecting monetary reform and, in the absence of reform, the difficulty of implementing sustained periods of monetary restraint.     

MONETARY POLICY,FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS,AND REDISTRIBUTION

This article examines how financial constraints affect redistribution via monetary policy. We explore a novel mechanism of monetary nonneutrality, which is based on debt limits imposed in nominal terms. Specifically, when debt is constrained by current income, monetary policy can alter the real terms of borrowing. Changes in inflation exert ambiguous effects, depending on the initial debt/wealth position and the willingness to borrow. We show analytically that borrowers can benefit from increased debt limits under lower inflation rates. This novel effect can dominate conventional debt deflation effects. We find that particularly less indebted borrowers as well as potential future borrowers gain and that aggregate welfare can be enhanced under a permanent reduction in inflation.     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

政府行为、系统性风险与金融稳定性

通过企业、银行、地方政府和中央政府四方目标函数的分析和构建博弈模型的论证,得到的结论是:以GDP等数量指标为导向的政绩考核制度和中央与地方之间存在严重的信息不对称,是近年来中央政府时常陷入“经济增长与宏观调控两难”窘境的主要原因。为此,必须尽快改革政绩考核制度,创建银行信贷监测系统,提高中央对地方经济相关信息的可获得性,有效地导向地方政府行为,在制度上提高金融稳定性和管理的科学性。     

INTIMIDATION: LINKING NEGOTIATION AND CONFLICT

A challenger wants a resource initially held by a defender, who can negotiate a settlement by offering to share the resource. If Challenger rejects, conflict ensues. During conflict, each player could be a tough type for whom fighting is costless. Therefore, nonconcession intimidates the opponent into conceding. Unlike in models where negotiations happen in the shadow of exogenously specified conflicts, offers made during negotiations determine how conflict unfolds if negotiations fail. In turn, how conflict is expected to unfold determines the players' negotiating positions. In equilibrium, negotiations always fail with positive probability, even if players face a high cost of conflict. Allowing multiple offers leads to brinkmanship—the only acceptable offer is the one made when conflict is imminent. If negotiations fail, conflict is prolonged and not duration dependent.     

CAPITAL CONTROLS AND CONFLICT OF INTERESTS

This paper is a normative analysis of the legal restrictions on international financial movements based on a formal model which analyzes the empirical observation that the degree of financial protectionism is associated with changes in the distribution of welfare among agents. The strategic interactions among four types of agents (a trade union, a firm manager, a financial investor and a government) are analyzed, and the optimal amount of capital control is derived as a Nash perfect equilibrium of a non-cooperative game with imperfect information. I conclude that a financial liberalization proposal can be supported by different coalitions of agents, according to the covariance of domestic and foreign returns and the degree of profitability of domestic industrial projects.     

金融体系特征、风险特性与企业创新

本文基于中国工业企业库和专利数据库，利用2006—2008年中国证券市场资本化总额占比的快速上升和企业风险特性的差异，探讨了金融结构和金融发展对企业创新的影响。实证结果表明，市场主导程度更高的金融结构，而非更大的金融市场总体规模，通过缓解外部融资依赖程度更高行业中的私有企业的融资约束，显著促进了高风险私有企业的创新。以上实证结果并非由金融体系特征变化前的时间趋势所驱动，并对遗漏变量等问题保持稳健。本文对于深入理解转型升级，构建支持企业创新的金融体系具有重要政策含义。     

货币政策、金融周期及其宏观经济效应

本文综合金融市场的多维信息,利用主成分分析法合成我国的金融周期指数。在此基础上,构建TVP SV VAR模型研究2003—2017年间我国货币政策、金融周期及宏观经济变量间的时变互动关系。研究发现：（1）我国货币政策、金融周期和宏观经济变量之间存在显著的时变互动关系。（2）金融传导渠道可能扭曲货币政策效力,通过金融传导渠道,货币政策不仅会抑制经济增长,还可能加剧通货膨胀。（3）金融周期对货币政策产出效应的影响滞后于对价格效应的影响。短期来看,货币政策产出效应的时变特征与金融传导渠道无太大关联,但随时间推移,金融繁荣对产出的负面影响可能最终使货币政策产出效应发生反转。货币当局应警惕金融繁荣对货币政策效力的扭曲,审慎操作,且不宜承担过多刺激产出的任务。     

FINANCIAL RISK AND UNEMPLOYMENT

There is a strong correlation between corporate interest rates, their spreads relative to Treasuries, and the unemployment rate. We model how corporate interest rates affect equilibrium unemployment and vacancies, in a Diamond–Mortesen–Pissarides search and matching model. Our simple model permits the exploration of U.S. business cycle statistics through the lens of financial shocks. We calibrate the model using U.S. data without targeting business cycle statistics. Volatility in the corporate interest rate can explain a quantitatively meaningful portion of the labor market. Data on corporate firms support the hypothesis that firms facing more volatile financial conditions have more volatile employment.     

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION AND FINANCIAL INNOVATION IN A CHARACTERISTICS FRAMEWORK

This paper shows that the characteristics model provides a unifying framework for analysing both financial intermediation and the process of financial innovation. The role of the financial intermediary is to buy-in the primary liabilities of the firm, unbundle and repackage the characteristics contained in them and issue a set of ultimate assets to households. Assets exist because the balance between the supply of and demand for asset characteristics indicates an interior equilibrium. Financial innovations arise whenever changes in supply and demand induce movements from a corner solution to the interior. A number of existing explanations of financial innovation can be expressed using this framework.     

THE DYNAMIC AND DISTRIBUTIONAL ASPECTS OF IMPORT TARIFFS

We use a dynamic trade model with two sectors and two types of workers to analyze the optimal setting of income‐generating tariffs. We study dynamic and distributional aspects focusing on the time horizon of policymakers and workers. The level of tariffs preferred by workers depends on the sector where they are employed as well as their skill class, with the relative weight of both aspects determined by the time horizon of the workers. Unskilled workers in the unskilled‐intensive sector are the ones most in favor of protectionism and might even benefit from a trade war.     

SEIGNIORAGE, DOMESTIC DEBT, AND FINANCIAL REFORM IN CHINA

This paper describes the institutional features of China's hybrid economy that have allowed the government to earn high levels of seigniorage. It quantifies both the financial benefits and implicit costs to the government of extracting seigniorage from the economy. The analysis, which is based on the inside/outside money model of Gurley and Shaw (1960), indicates that seigniorage earnings in the period 1987—1994 were large, but were earned at the cost of a rising implicit government debt and potential future inflation. The paper also outlines how the Chinese government's ability to earn seigniorage in the future may decline as the economy becomes fully monetized and as reform alters the economy's unique institutional structure.     

金融中心和金融中心体系识别方法

金融中心和金融中心体系的识别是金融地理学研究的难点,也是金融地理学持续研究的重要内容.传统识别方法采用规模指标、层次指标,或者规模和层次相结合的综合指标.由于自身的局限性加之中国区域发展条件复杂、区域差距大,传统指标在用于中国实践时不能准确揭示金融中心的范围和层次.对不同金融部门跨区域配置资金模式的分析可以定性确认金融中心的范围和层级,是对传统识别方法的补充.     

金融发展、财政分权与地区经济差异

通过对我国28个省份1990-2004年的数据进行面板分析,考察金融发展对地区经济差异的影响,以及与金融联系紧密的财政分权对于这种影响的作用.结果表明:在东部和西部地区,金融发展对经济增长产生了显著的促进作用,而在中部和东北地区,金融发展却没有形成推动经济增长的良性机制.而财政分权对金融发挥促进经济增长作用的影响在不同区域也各不相同,其中仅在东北地区和西部有利于金融发挥促进经济增长的作用,其他地区则产生了不利影响.同时,还考虑了金融政策因素,以及经济的非国有化等反映市场经济制度的变量对金融与地区经济增长之间关系的影响.最后,在实证分析的基础上提出了从区域金融的角度协调我国区域经济发展的政策建议.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY

Using cross‐country panel data over the period 1996–2012, this paper examines the impact of financial development on macroeconomic volatility using GMM estimators. In contrast to the linear relationship identified in many previous studies, we present robust evidence suggesting that the effect of financial development on macroeconomic volatility is nonlinear and U‐shaped. We also investigate the potential differences between developed and developing countries. The results of the paper add new evidence and shed interesting insights into the recent debate on the role of finance in macroeconomic fluctuations.