Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals

This paper uses a panel data estimation of a simple univariate model of sovereign spreads on ratings to analyze statistically significant differences between actual spreads and ratings-based spreads. When such deviations are significant, we find that ‘excessively high’ spreads are on average followed by episodes of spread tightening 1 month later rather than credit downgrades. In contrast, observations with ‘excessively low’ spreads are on average followed by rating upgrades 3 months later rather than episodes of spread widening. The paper also illustrates how significant disagreements between market and rating agencies’ views can be used as a signal that further technical and sovereign analysis is warranted. For instance, we find that spreads were ‘excessively low’ for most emerging markets before the Asian crisis. More recently, spreads were ‘excessively high’ for a number of emerging markets.     

Yield spreads on EMU government bonds — How the financial crisis has helped investors to rediscover risk

This study analyses the determinants of EMU member states’ government bond yield spreads from January 2000 until September 2010. Using a dynamic panel regression approach, the authors show that before the outbreak of the financial crisis investors generally ignored fundamental sovereign bond risk factors. However, with the beginning of the financial crisis yield spreads for many member countries escalated. The results indicate not only that investors began to re-evaluate countries’ credit risks (measured by projections of debt-to-GDP ratios), but also that risk aversion in the markets, which increased significantly during the crisis, became a major determinant of sovereign bond spreads.     

Institutional quality and sovereign credit default swap spreads

We examine how the quality of political, legal, and regulatory institutions impacts sovereign risk premia. An improvement in institutional quality significantly lowers a country's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread, even after controlling for domestic and global macroeconomic factors. The incremental effect of institutional quality may also be economically important in explaining the variations in the level of sovereign CDS spreads. The basic results are robust to alternative model specifications, samples, control variables, measures of institutional quality, estimation methods, and controls for endogeneity. Overall, the evidence suggests that institutional quality may play a significant role in explaining sovereign CDS spreads.     

Counter‐Credit‐Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market

In this paper, using China's risk‐free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter‐credit‐risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China's credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism latent in the fundamental of this market. We also find interesting results about relationships between corporate yield spreads and interest rates and risk premia and the stock index, and these results are somewhat attributed to this puzzle.     

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.     

External Public Debt,Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis

Against the backdrop of the contagion literature, the paper analyses the impact of financial and trade linkages on sovereign bond spreads in the Eurozone crisis. Using quarterly data for a sample of EMU countries during the period 2000–13, we estimate fixed‐effect panel models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors that are robust to general forms of spatial and temporal dependence. Our main results can be summarised as follows: first, we suggest that the ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflow towards the peripheral sovereign debt triggered a re‐segmentation of financial markets and economic systems along national borders, with negative implications for risk‐sharing and the efficient allocation of capital. The ‘home bias’ effect – that is the increase in the share of sovereign debt held by domestic banks – worsened the country‐specific risk because the twin crisis (sovereign and banking) began to be conceived as more closely intertwined within countries than before. Second, the structure of international trade helps to account for the geographic scope of contagion, even after controlling for macroeconomic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Finally, the ‘substitution effect’ of public debt securities of stand‐alone emerging countries has affected more the sovereign spreads in the core than in the periphery.     

Vulnerable options,risky corporate bond,and credit spread

In the current literature, the focus of credit‐risk analysis has been either on the valuation of risky corporate bond and credit spread or on the valuation of vulnerable options, but never both in the same context. There are two main concerns with existing studies. First, corporate bonds and credit spreads are generally analyzed in a context where corporate debt is the only liability of the firm and a firm’s value follows a continuous stochastic process. This setup implies a zero short‐term spread, which is strongly rejected by empirical observations. The failure of generating non‐zero short‐term credit spreads may be attributed to the simplified assumption on corporate liabilities. Because a corporation generally has more than one type of liability, modeling multiple liabilities may help to incorporate discontinuity in a firm’s value and thereby lead to realistic credit term structures. Second, vulnerable options are generally valued under the assumption that a firm can fully pay off the option if the firm’s value is above the default barrier at the option’s maturity. Such an assumption is not realistic because a corporation can find itself in a solvent position at option’s maturity but with assets insufficient to pay off the option. The main contribution of this study is to address these concerns. The proposed framework extends the existing equity‐bond capital structure to an equity‐bond‐derivative setting and encompasses many existing models as special cases. The firm under study has two types of liabilities: a corporate bond and a short position in a call option. The risky corporate bond, credit spreads, and vulnerable options are analyzed and compared with their counterparts from previous models. Numerical results show that adding a derivative type of liability can lead to positive short‐term credit spreads and various shapes of credit‐spread term structures that were not possible in previous models. In addition, we found that vulnerable options need not always be worth less than their default‐free counterparts. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:301–327, 2001     

Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment

The paper studies how the relationship between emerging market sovereign bond spreads, economic fundamentals and global financial market conditions differs across three regimes of global market sentiment. Following the identification of periods characterized by low, medium and high volatility in financial markets, we analyze the behavior of spreads from three different angles. First, we demonstrate that the cross-country correlation of spreads increases in high-volatility regimes, implying that countries cannot fully decouple from developments in other emerging markets during periods of distress. Second, using the interactions of several domestic and global variables with the probabilities of each regime prevailing in a given period as the explanatory variables of spreads, the fixed effects panel estimation shows that while country-specific fundamentals are important determinants of spreads in each regime, the importance of global financial conditions increases in high-volatility periods. Third, we show that countries can benefit from stronger fundamentals in the form of lower exposure of their sovereign spreads to unfavorable regime shifts in global market sentiment.     

The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences

We investigate the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads on a sample of Eastern European data. A dynamic hierarchical factor model is used to aggregate information in indicators of economic fundamentals. CDS spreads are regressed on forecasts of factors. We find that domestic fundamentals explain more of CDS spread variance than global factors, largely due to their ability to explain differences in sovereign risk across countries. The effects on CDS spreads are found to be time-varying. In terms of economic significance, the factor of institutional-political strength stands out. We apply the model to study CDS spreads of Poland, Russia and Turkey.     

The near-death experience of the celtic tiger

This article narrates Ireland’s recent odyssey from the pride and envy of Europe to kneeling supplicant through the eyes of an econometric model of the government bond market. The exercise suggests that, in essence, two developments triggered and propelled Ireland’s drift towards sovereign default: first, the global financial crisis that drove Ireland into a severe recession with collapsing tax revenues and increasing unemployment; second, a gap between the post-2007 increase in sovereign default risk that can actually be linked to macroeconomic fundamentals and the much bigger increase in perceived risk reflected by high interest rates and communicated by the massive downgrades of Ireland’s sovereign debt rating.     

Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors

This paper evaluates the role of global and domestic risk factors in explaining sovereign tail risk for 18 emerging economies. Sovereign tail risk is defined as the likelihood of a sharp rise in sovereign credit risk. We find that both global and domestic risk factors contribute significantly to sovereign tail risk, with explanatory power increasing with the severity of tail risk in a non-linear fashion. Indeed, their contributions have become stronger following the global financial crisis. In particular, global liquidity conditions, commodity prices and economic growth are ranked as the major risk factors for sovereign tail risk among the EMEs.     

Multiple Ratings Model of Defaultable Term Structure

A new approach to modeling credit risk, to valuation of defaultable debt and to pricing of credit derivatives is developed. Our approach, based on the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) methodology, uses the available information about the credit spreads combined with the available information about the recovery rates to model the intensities of credit migrations between various credit ratings classes. This results in a conditionally Markovian model of credit risk. We then combine our model of credit risk with a model of interest rate risk in order to derive an arbitrage‐free model of defaultable bonds. As expected, the market price processes of interest rate risk and credit risk provide a natural connection between the actual and the martingale probabilities.     

Sovereign ratings,macroeconomic dynamics,and fiscal policy. Interactions within a stock flow consistent framework

Operating in the context of deregulated financial markets, credit rating agencies do not only ‘provide an opinion’, but also affect macroeconomic dynamics. By utilizing a two‐country stock flow consistent model that provides a representation of the Eurozone, the paper connects the movements of sovereign ratings with the dynamics of the financial market and the constraints on fiscal policy. With endogenous fiscal expenditure and an endogenous credit rating mechanism the model shows how following a recessionary shock, a rating downgrade can influence the financial constraints that surround a government, pushing it toward fiscal austerity and thereby deepening the already ongoing recession.     

Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business

Drawing on internationalization process theory, we develop a new model for firm-specific internationalization risk assessment. The model shows that firm-specific internationalization risks can be determined from a firm's experiences and from current business activities in a firm's network. Experiential risks are categorized as international, country market, network, or relationship experience risks. Risk assessment in current network activities can be determined from a firm's dependency on a network and from the network's performance and evolution. We apply our model to credit risk assessment by banks and other credit institutions. This article adds to research on financial institutions’ credit risk assessment by focusing on firm-specific internationalization risk assessment, an area that has previously received little attention in the literature. In addition, this article provides a better understanding of risk assessment in the internationalization process, shedding light not only on the risks involved in firms’ commitment to internationalization but also on the risks that banks and other institutions take when they commit by lending to internationalizing firms.     

Sovereign credit ratings,capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995–2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longer-term credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.     

Can Islamic banks have their own benchmark?

This paper attempts to answer whether Islamic banks can have their own benchmark rate. In so doing, the paper investigates the nature of the relationship Islamic interbank benchmark rate (IIBR) and its comparable conventional counterpart, London interbank offer rate (LIBOR). The dynamics of the two series are investigated to examine the stability of the spread between IIBR and LIBOR, referred to as ‘Islamic premium’ or ‘piety premium’. The findings suggest that there are both long-term and short-term dynamic relationships between the two rates providing significant evidence of their convergence and co-movement. Our results also show that the existence of the IIBR-LIBOR spread is a reflection of the cost of funding and profit potential of the participating IIBR rate-setters. We find that, in addition to the determinants of the credit spreads, fundamental news of the panel banks are dominant factors driving the ‘piety premium’. We argue that the Islamic banking industry is operating in a global context, where it is highly improbable that its rates can decouple from the global benchmarks. Given that Islamic banking products and their risk return profile are similar to conventional products, arbitrage activities force Islamic rates to converge with the global benchmark rates.     

Credit lender–borrower relationship in the credit card market – Implications for credit risk management strategy and relationship marketing

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in 2008, precipitating the international financial crisis. Many questioned the banks’ risk-taking credit system. Understanding credit risk and how the credit system functions may provide knowledge on managing credit, to avoid another such international crisis. We study the credit card field and present a pricing decision model for managing credit risk. Recent credit lenders’ portfolio re-pricing practices call for immediate attention to the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. A literature review and recent phenomena in the credit card industry reveal that the lenders’ re-pricing strategy negatively affects the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. Thus, we introduce a pricing decision model incorporating the lenders’ re-pricing strategy and the credit lender–borrower relationship. Further, we discuss the implications of, and the role of marketing in, credit risk management and the implications of relationship marketing for credit lenders in foreign markets, including the US market.     

Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis

We compare sovereign bond spreads during the international financial crisis across groups drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score matching to select a non-crisis sample for comparison with the crisis sample that is more robust to exogenous crisis dating. We find minimal changes over the crisis period in the average spreads of local-currency-denominated emerging market bonds. In contrast, the spreads of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds increased by large amounts and were subject to sovereign risk contagion.     

The components of interest rate swap spreads: Theory and international evidence

This article contains both a theoretical and an empirical analysis of the components of interest rate swap spreads defined as the difference between the fixed swap rate and the risk‐free rate of equal maturity. The components are determined by expected LIBOR spreads, default risk, and market structure. A model of the swap market incorporating debt market imperfections and corporate financing choices is used to explain participation by both swap buyers and sellers. The model also motivates an empirical relationship between swap spreads and the slope of the risk‐free term structure. The article then provides empirical evidence on the cross‐sectional and time‐series variation of swap spreads in seven international markets. The evidence is consistent with the suggested components across both markets and swap maturities as well as over time. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:347–387, 2003     

Official bailouts,moral hazard and the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market

We analyse the evolution of emerging market loan spreads at a more disaggregated level than other studies on the subject, providing statistical support to the assumption of the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market, to the extent that the pricing of interbank credit is insensitive to the nature (public or private) of the borrower. In sharp contrast, the public or private nature of other borrowers, such as corporates or financial firms, causes significant differences in spreads. These results could be interpreted as evidence of the possible role played by implicit government guarantees in the international interbank market, which lower the incentives for participants to monitor counterpart risk very closely. Furthermore, the specificity of banks is witnessed by the fact that only spreads on loans to emerging market banks have clearly declined following the 1995 Mexican bailout, whereas evidence on the pricing of lending to corporates and financial firms is more ambiguous. Although, on the one hand, this might support the view that financial assistance from the IMF gives rise to moral hazard, on the other hand, contrary to expectations, spreads on loans to Asian banks, among the major candidates in the current policy debate on moral hazard, have been unaffected by the IMF's response to Mexico's crisis.