Exchange rate exposure

In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight (non-US) industrialized and emerging markets. We find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms, though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time, suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk. Exposure is correlated with firm size, multinational status, foreign sales, international assets, and competitiveness and trade at the industry level.     

Foreign firm characteristics,labour market restrictions and FDI spillovers: Evidence from Moldova

This paper investigates how productivity spillovers from foreign to domestic firms are affected by foreign firm characteristics and labour market conditions in Moldova. We use firm-level administrative panel data and annual survey region-sector indicators of labour market conditions in 2005–2014. Baseline regressions show that domestic firms benefit from backward FDI spillovers, while we find no evidence of horizontal or forward spillovers. Spillover effects are heterogeneous and depend on the ownership structure and age of foreign firms. Domestic firms in upstream sectors benefit from both wholly foreign-owned companies (WFOC) and joint ventures (JV). However, JVs need less time in the market for positive spillovers to materialise, while WFOCs only lead to larger spillover effects when they are older. In regions and sectors where firms experience fewer labour market restrictions, backward FDI spillovers are larger. Interacting foreign firm characteristics with labour market restrictions, we find that spillovers through the labour market channel materialise only for older FDI, regardless of ownership type. The results are in line with our expectation that WFOCs need more time than JVs to develop linkages with local suppliers and lead to spillovers through this channel. Moreover, in developing countries labour market restrictions reduce labour mobility and consequently, the size of FDI spillovers across industries.     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis

We use Mexican firm-level data to study the role of currency mismatches in the corporate sector in exacerbating the negative effects of a devaluation. We also investigate what drives Mexican firms to borrow in foreign currency. We find that holding dollar denominated debt in a devaluation adversely affects firms’ earnings and investment. However, exporters invested more than non-exporters in the same period. We also find that the negative effect of dollar debt was stronger than the positive effect of exports in the 1994 crisis for firms with positive dollar debt and/or exports, relative to firms that did not borrow abroad and/or export. This was a result of imperfect currency matching by firms. However, in the 1998 crisis firms managed the denominations of their inflows and outflows much better and these two effects were roughly equal in magnitude. We also find some evidence of currency matching by exporters, especially after the introduction of the floating exchange rate.     

Flying under the radar: Foreign firm visibility and the efficacy of political strategies in emerging economies

Although emerging markets hold great potential, foreign firms operating in those markets are exposed to a comparatively higher level of risk as compared to developed markets. We examine the role of foreign firms’ visibility in shaping the effect of the strategies they deploy to reduce their exposure to environmental risk. Building on and extending research on political strategies we develop hypotheses and test them against data from 173 MNE subsidiaries operating in six emerging economies. We find that visibility affects not only the strength, but also the direction of the association between political strategies and foreign firms’ exposure to risk. Our findings enhance understanding of the use of different political strategies for reducing their exposure to risk and of the moderating role of their visibility in emerging markets.     

Home country institutional environments and foreign expansion of emerging market firms

We propose that home country institutional environment shapes emerging market firms’ foreign expansion. We argue that better-developed home country institutional environment promotes emerging market firms’ expansion to foreign markets more advanced than the home country, while institutional instability in the home country reduces this propensity. We further hypothesize that the effects of home country institutional environment are contingent on firm-specific government ownership. Data on the foreign expansion of 921 Chinese firms in the period of 1996–2000 provide strong support for the effects of home country's institutional development and institutional instability. We also find that a high degree of government ownership weakens the positive effect of home country's institutional development on emerging market firms’ propensity to expansion to more advanced markets.     

Balance sheet effects and the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries

We investigate the choice of regime amongst hard pegs, soft pegs, managed floats and independent floats for a panel of developing countries. There is evidence of a matched ordering of regimes and country characteristics. We find some evidence for the ‘balance sheet' hypothesis that foreign liabilities in the banking system and foreign debt are associated with less exchange rate flexibility, particularly when a ‘de facto’ regime classification is used. Easily the best predictor of a country's current regime is its regime in the previous year.     

Internationalisation choices of Polish firms during the post-socialism transition period: The role of institutional conditions at firm’s foundation

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the home country radical change of institutional conditions influences the firm-level internationalisation process understood as exporting. In particular, we aim to broaden our understanding of how changing institutional conditions affect the internationalisation process of Polish firms founded in different institutional conditions; i.e. under the communist regime (before 1990), in the transition period (1990–2003), and in the post-transition period (2004 and later). We compare and contrast in each period three crucial aspects describing the internationalisation process: time to internationalisation, direction and degree of internationalisation. We find support for the assertion that the institutional conditions at a firm’s birth influence the internationalisation paths of emerging market firms in terms of speed, direction and degree of internationalisation. Firms founded either in the transition (1990–2003), or in the post-transition phase (2004 and later) are more likely to: (1) make the decision about internationalisation earlier in their life cycle, (2) enter developed markets, and (3) achieve a higher degree of internationalisation than firms founded under the communist regime (before 1990).     

Gaijin invasion? A resource dependence perspective on foreign ownership and foreign directors

While boards around the globe are becoming more international, the reasons behind this internationalization are not fully understood. In this study, we suggest that foreign ownership increases the presence of foreign directors on boards. Based on resource dependence theory, we argue that the dependence on foreign owners makes foreign nationals an important resource for firms. Using data from large Japanese stock market firms and employing logistic regression analysis, we find empirical evidence that greater dependence on foreign, i.e. gaijin, owners is associated with a higher probability to have foreign directors on the board. We also demonstrate that the link between foreign ownership and foreign directors is positively moderated by a firm’s foreign market exposure. We conclude that firms consider foreign directors a viable response to the deviant expectations of foreign owners.     

‘Dollar’ debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?

During the 1990s, the performance of several emerging economies was linked to their access to foreign capital. Colombia was no exception, experiencing a boom and bust cycle associated with an initial period of real exchange rate appreciation followed by a sharp depreciation. Although several studies have discussed the recent underperformance of the Colombian economy, few attempts have been made at analyzing firm-level data. We rely on information for a large sample of firms during 1995–2001 and examine the determinants of foreign indebtedness and the effects on firm performance of holding dollar debt amid real depreciations (i.e. the so-called ‘balance sheet effect’). In our data set, matching does seem to take place to the extent that firms in more open sectors and exporting firms have higher shares of dollar debt. Our estimations also reveal a negative balance sheet effect on firms’ profitability, while the effect on investment is generally not significant.     

Fear of floating and domestic liability dollarization

Previous attempts to analyze the effect of liability dollarization on “fear of floating” have focused exclusively on the role played by foreign liabilities. Liability dollarization of the domestic banking system, however, poses a similar risk as dollar-denominated deposits and credit impose a source of currency risk on domestic banks and firms, respectively. Findings from a large cross-country sample indicate that domestic liability dollarization plays a central role in producing a “fear of floating” among emerging market countries and developing nations. This is an important result because domestic liability dollarization is more reversible than the dollarization of foreign liabilities, providing a reason for optimism that these countries can regain flexibility in the choice of exchange rate regime and overcome their “fear of floating”.     

The moderating role of local embeddedness on the performance of foreign and domestic firms in emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of the firm’s degree of local embeddedness on its performance in emerging markets using the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey Manufacturing Sector Module data on 15,715 firms covering 78 emerging markets. We use the degree of localization of sourcing and sales to measure the degree of embeddedness in the host country market. We argue that since embeddedness brings the firm into closer interaction with local firms and institutions, the costs of embeddedness should be lower for local firms than for MNE subsidiaries, since local firms can be assumed to be better able to decipher local institutions. We find that both dimensions are subject to a reversed U-shaped function. That is, by extending the degree of local sales and local sourcing up to a certain percentage, a firm can realize positive performance growth by becoming more embedded into the emerging market, but beyond this point, the performance impact is negative. We also find that foreign firms involved in local sales seem to lose part of their ability to exploit their ownership advantages as compared to foreign firms that export their production.     

Impact of institutional reforms and industry structural factors on market returns of emerging market rivals during acquisitions by foreign firms

This paper seeks to understand the joint impact of institutional reforms and industry structural factors on market returns earned by rivals in an emerging market during foreign acquisitions. We use a sample of 238 foreign acquisitions in India during the period 2004–2013 and find empirical evidence to support the notion that institutional reforms, foreign competition and business group competition positively impact the market returns of the rivals of acquired firms. Additionally, we find that the effects of foreign competition and business group competition on rivals’ market returns are shaped by the degree of institutional reforms in the industry, indicating that firms’ market returns in emerging markets during foreign acquisitions can be better understood through the incorporation of the joint role of industry structural factors and institutional reforms.     

Foreign Ownership and Corporate Cash Holdings in Emerging Markets

This article examines the link between foreign ownership and corporate cash holdings. We utilize a data sample of firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange covering the period 2007–2015. Employing different econometric techniques for panel data, we find that higher foreign ownership is associated with more corporate cash holdings. This finding suggests that foreign investors in the Vietnam stock market are subject to precautionary motive and agency motive forcing firms to hold more cash. However, the outcome suggests potential agency problems because managers might subsequently use this cash reserve for their own advantages. These problems are even more pronounced in emerging markets where investor protection mechanism is weak. Accordingly, this highlights the importance of a monitoring mechanism to refrain corporate managers from investing in value‐destroying projects.     

The exchange rate,employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.     

The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.     

Welfare gains from Foreign Direct Investment through technology transfer to local suppliers

We hypothesize that multinational firms operating in emerging markets transfer technology to local suppliers to increase their productivity and to lower input prices. To avoid hold-up by any single supplier, the foreign firm must make the technology widely available. This technology diffusion induces entry and more competition which lowers prices in the supply market. As a result, not just the foreign-owned firm, but all firms downstream of that supply market obtain lower prices. We test this hypothesis using a panel dataset of Indonesian manufacturing establishments. We find strong evidence of productivity gains, greater competition, and lower prices among local firms in markets that supply foreign entrants. The technology transfer is Pareto improving — output and profits increase for firms in both the supplier and buyer sectors. Further, the technology transfer generates an externality that benefits buyers in other sectors downstream from the supply sector as well. This externality may provide a justification for policy intervention to encourage foreign investment.     

Exchange rate regimes, globalisation, and the cost of capital in emerging markets

This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Our results suggest that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets by reducing the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors.     

Leader narcissism and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firms

Researchers use the upper echelons theory to establish how leaders’ attributes affect firms’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), a proxy for foreign operations. This extant literature has largely ignored the impact of leaders’ psychological attributes, particularly, narcissism. We use a narcissism index of leaders of Chinese listed companies to examine the relationship between leader narcissism and firm-level OFDI for the period 2007-2017. We show that leader narcissism has a positive and significant impact on firm-level OFDI. In addition, we find that firms with state ownership and political connections show a greater positive effect of leader narcissism on the firm’s OFDI. Our results suggest that leader narcissism appears to be a stimulus to corporate OFDI, and thus in recruiting top corporate executives who are responsible for managing the international investments of the corporation, this psychological trait should be given special consideration in addition to other qualifications.     

Corporate governance and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from emerging markets

Controlling for country-level governance, we investigate how firms' corporate governance influences financing constraints. Using firm-level corporate governance rankings across 14 emerging markets, we find that better corporate governance lowers the dependence of emerging market firms on internally generated cash flows, and reduces financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment and destroy firm value. Additionally and more importantly, firm-level corporate governance matters more significantly in countries with weaker country-level governance. This suggests substitutability between firm-specific and country-level governance in determining a firm's investment sensitivity to internal cash flows.     

Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions

Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross‐border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm‐specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm‐level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.