Effect of the ban on short selling on market prices and volatility

We examine the effects of the short‐selling ban, imposed by Australian regulators in the wake of the global financial crisis, on the trading of financial stocks. Our findings argue against commonly stated reasons for imposing short‐sale bans. We find no evidence that short‐sale restrictions provide support for stock prices or that they reduce volatility. Moreover, stocks subject to the short‐selling ban suffered a severe degradation in market quality. Controlling for the adverse effects of the financial crisis on markets, we show that short‐selling restrictions increase intraday volatility, reduce trading activity and increase bid–ask spreads.     

The determinants of short selling: evidence from the Hong Kong equity market

While most financial regulators agree that short sellers have an important role to play in ensuring an efficiently functioning market, it is interesting to note that many did not hesitate to ban short selling during the recent financial crisis. This apparent contradiction most likely stems from a lack of understanding about what motivates short trading. In this paper, we focus on the determinants of short selling during ‘normal’ trading in the Hong Kong stock market. We find that dividend payments, company fundamentals, risk, option trading, the interest rate spread and past returns and short selling are all significant determinants of short selling.     

Short selling and the independence of business-related analysts: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates whether short-sale deregulation improves analysts' independence in an emerging market where conventional mechanisms mitigating conflicts of interest are either ineffective or absent. Short selling reduces the effectiveness of analysts' favourable opinions in creating or sustaining overvalued stock prices, thus decreasing the incentives of institutional clients of brokerages to exert pressure on related analysts to initiate coverage and issue biased opinions. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find strong evidence that stocks that are eligible for short sales experience a greater reduction in coverage by related analysts than stocks that are ineligible for short sales. When covered firms become eligible for short sales, the quality of forecasts and recommendations issued by related analysts improves considerably. Further analyses show that shortable firms with a significant reduction in related analysts' coverage are more likely to underperform and to experience stock price crashes in the future. Altogether, our results are consistent with short selling effectively restoring related analysts' independence in emerging markets.     

Against the tide: the commencement of short selling and margin trading in mainland China

China's recent removal of short‐selling and margin trading bans on selected stocks enables testing of the relative effect of margin trading and short selling. We find the prices of the shortable stocks decrease, on average, relative to peer A‐shares and cross‐listed H‐shares, suggesting that short selling dominates margin trading effects. Contrary to the regulators' intention and recent developed market empirical evidence, liquidity declines and bid‐ask spreads increase in these shortable stocks. Consistent with Ausubel (1990), these results imply that uninformed investors avoid the shortable stocks to reduce the risk of trading with informed investors.     

Short selling and stock returns: Evidence from the UK

The practice of shorting stocks was put forward as one of the causes of the recent financial crisis whereas Shiller (2003), for example, considers shorting an essential element of an efficient market. Shorting involves selling borrowed stocks and subsequently closing the position by purchasing and returning the stock to the lender. A profit will be realised if the stock's price decreases. Shorting enables investors who do not own a perceived overvalued stock to sell. Using a high-frequency UK dataset for the period between September 2003 and April 2010, our findings suggest shorting indicates evidence of overvalued stocks as significantly negative abnormal stock returns appear to follow an increase in shorting. These results do not hold, however, for shorting which occurs around the ex-dividend date. We further find that these results hold during the recent financial crisis.     

Earnings quality and short selling: Evidence from real earnings management in the United States

Prior research provides evidence consistent with managers using real earnings management (REM) to increase earnings. This study examines whether short sellers exploit the overvaluation of firms employing REM. I find that firms with more REM have higher subsequent short interest. The positive relation between REM and short interest is more pronounced in settings where the costs associated with accrual‐based earnings management are high, such as when a firm has low accounting flexibility or faces greater scrutiny from a high quality auditor. I also find some evidence that short sellers respond to REM more than to other fundamental signals of firm overvaluation. My inferences are robust to the use of propensity score matching. Collectively, my evidence suggests that short sellers not only trade on REM information, but they also trade as if they understand the substitutive nature of alternative earnings management methods. This study provides additional insight into the important role that short sellers play in monitoring managerial operating decisions and overall earnings quality.     

Informed trading before analyst downgrades: Evidence from short sellers

This paper studies short-selling prior to the release of analyst downgrades in a sample of 670 downgrades of Nasdaq stocks between 2000 and 2001. We find abnormal levels of short-selling in the three days before downgrades are publicly announced. Further, we show that this pre-announcement abnormal short-selling is significantly related to the subsequent share price reaction to the downgrade, and especially so for downgrades that prompt the most substantial price declines. Our findings are robust to various controls that might also affect short-selling such as pre-announcement momentum, three-day pre-announcement returns, and announcement-day share price. In addition, the results are independent of scheduled earnings announcements, analyst herding, and non-routine events near downgrades. Further evidence suggests that tipping is more consistent with the data than the prediction explanation which posits that short sellers successfully predict downgrades on the basis of public information about firms’ financial health. Finally, we present evidence that downgraded stocks with high abnormal short-selling perform poorly over the subsequent six months by comparison with those with low abnormal short-selling. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that short sellers are informed traders and exploit profitable opportunities provided by downgrade announcements.     

Not all emerging markets are the same: A classification approach with correlation based networks

Using dynamic conditional correlations and network theory, this study brings a novel interdisciplinary framework to define the integration and segmentation of emerging countries. The individual EMBI+ spreads of 13 emerging countries from January 2003 to December 2013 are used to compare their interaction structure before (phase 1) and after (phase 2) the global financial crisis. Accordingly, the unweighted average of dynamic conditional correlations between cross country bond returns significantly increases in phase 2. At first glance, the increased co-movement degree suggests an integration of the sample countries after the crisis. However, using correlation based stable networks, we show that this is not enough to make such a strong conclusion. In particular, we reveal that the increased average correlation is more likely to be caused by clusters of countries that exhibit high within-cluster co-movement but not between-cluster co-movement. Potential reasons for the post-crisis segmentation and important implications for international investors and policymakers are discussed.     

High frequency correlation dynamics and day-of-the-week effect: A score-driven approach in an emerging market stock exchange

Intraday correlation dynamics poses challenges to financial econometricians, especially in recently popular high frequency domain, due to non-synchronous trading and market microstructure noise. Traditional models fail to address the issues inherent to the nature of the data, which is riddled with noisy signals and missing values. We employ a recently developed method based on Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework and State-Space Modeling to remedy these characteristics of high frequency data and estimate intraday correlations in Turkish equity market Borsa Istanbul. Our findings reveal that average intraday conditional correlation rises as trading commences and lingers around certain altitude for some time, with the eigenvalues associated with market factor becoming progressively more dominant. An upward trend closes out the trading day on Mondays, which we attribute to the US market opening, whereas the rest of the week does not show a generalizable closing-time effect. Assessment of the findings across different market conditions and days of the week reveals elevated correlation levels in volatile markets as well as a distinguishable path for the beginning of the week. Beyond the scholarly contribution, the methodology can be used as a nowcasting tool and the findings are of interest to various parties like high-frequency traders, risk and portfolio managers and regulatory agencies in formulating their high frequency trading practices, hedging, portfolio construction schemes and margin requirements, respectively.     

银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响——来自工业企业的经验证据

本文在充分考虑中国信贷市场本地竞争特征的基础上,利用手工收集的商业银行分支机构独特数据构造了城市层面的银行业市场结构指标,并将其与2002-2007年中国工业企业数据库进行合并构造基础数据库,考察了银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响。研究发现:首先,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构显著提高了企业生产率,这支持了银行业市场结构的“市场力量假说”;其次,从影响机制来看,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构更有利于缓解企业面临的融资约束;最后,银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响在那些面临更多融资约束的企业中更为显著,小企业、非国有企业、新企业和高技术行业的企业从银行业竞争中获益更大。     

Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market

Motivated by the recent currency crisis in Turkey, we investigate the role of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on the high frequency stochastic jump behavior of the US dollar value against the Turkish lira, one of the most traded emerging market currencies in the world. We group the detected jumps into different types with respect to their direction (up and down) and timing (local and off-shore trading hours). For each type of jumps, we examine their relation with portfolio flows (in the form of equity and bond flows, and carry trade activity), and dispersion in beliefs for the future exchange rate level and key macroeconomic variables. We find that inflows to both equity and bond markets, and increasing carry trade activity significantly reduce the size of jumps and (partially) their intensity. On the other hand, heterogeneous expectations for the future exchange rate level, consumer price index and gross domestic product are found to increase the number of jumps and the average jump size.     

Stock splits to profit insider trading: Lessons from an emerging market

Stock splits have long presented financial puzzles: Why are they undertaken? Why are they associated with abnormal returns? Abnormal returns, particularly those coming shortly before a split’s announcement date, should raise strong suspicions of insider trading, particularly in nations with weak regulatory structures. We examined the 718 split events in the emerging stock market of Vietnam from 2007 through 2011. We found evidence consistent with illegal insider trading, particularly in firms that were vulnerable to insider manipulation and, therefore, more likely to split their stocks. When vulnerable firms’ stocks did split, they provided significant excess short-term returns. Tellingly, the abnormal returns on those stocks prior to the split announcements were also extremely high, indeed higher than their abnormal post-announcement returns. Moreover, trading volume increased prior to the split announcement date. This suspicious pattern is what we would expect if insiders were trading on their knowledge. We propose that illegal insider trading in contexts where it is possible to escape serious penalty provides a previously undiscussed and cogent explanation for both stock splits and abnormal short-term returns.     

Bond market development and bank stability: Evidence from emerging markets

We investigate how bond market development shapes banks’ risk taking in terms of portfolio structure, liquidity risk, and overall bank risk. Exploiting a bank-level database of 26 emerging markets, we find that larger bond markets are associated with stronger bank liquidity positions, lower portfolio risk of banks, and higher overall stability of banks. The effect of bond market development on bank risk taking remains robust across different levels of bank size and capital sufficiency. Overall, we find new evidence of a complementary relationship between bond market development and bank soundness.     

Value relevance of accounting information: Evidence from an emerging market

Without making any distinction of the applicable accounting standards, this paper investigates, firstly, the value relevance of accounting information from 1999 to 2012 in different segments of the Chinese stock market. This investigation includes A-shares, prepared under Chinese Accounting Standards (CAS) for domestic firms; B-shares, prepared under either the International Accounting Standards (IAS) or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for both domestic and overseas firms; and H-shares prepared under either the IAS or Hong Kong GAAP for Hong Kong and overseas firms. Then, the paper examines whether or not the converged IFRS with CAS, applicable from 2007 onwards, is more value relevant when compared with prior to the 2007's standards (CAS, IAS, Hong Kong GAAP for A-share, B-share, and H-share markets, respectively). Based on 34,020 firm-year observations and after controlling for industry- and year-fixed effects, the findings suggest that accounting information is value relevant with A- and B-share markets, while it is partially relevant with the H-share market. The paper finds that the converged IFRS with CAS is more value relevant in A-shares and B-shares and it is partially more value relevant with the H-share market. These findings have implications for both policymakers and investors since they provide further empirical evidence for the current policy procedure which harmonizes local GAAP with IFRS.     

Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates the short-term overreaction to specific events and whether stock prices are predictable in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). We find evidence of the short-term overreaction in the EGX. Losers (“bad news” portfolios) significantly outperform winners (“good news” portfolios) and investors can earn abnormal return by selling the winners and buying losers. Terrorist attacks have negative and significant abnormal returns for three days post event followed by price reversals on day four post event. Whereas, the tensions in the Middle East region have a negative and significant abnormal returns on event day followed by price reversals on day one post event. Moreover, the formation of a new government has no effect on the average abnormal returns post event in the EGX. The results also show that small firms tend to have greater price reversals compared to large firms. Overall, our results provide evidence of the leakage of information in the EGX.     

Currency futures market in India: an empirical analysis of market efficiency and volatility

As the Indian currency futures market has been in existence for over 7 years, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the 1-month USD/INR currency futures rates in predicting the expected spot rate. The volatility of the USD/INR spot returns was also analysed. Modelling volatility of the USD/INR spot rate using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model indicated the presence of volatility clustering. Using multivariate GARCH models such as the constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation, signs of a volatility spillover between the USD/INR spot and currency futures market were also observed.     

Financial market development and the effectiveness of R&D investment: Evidence from developed and emerging countries

Does financial market development enhance the effectiveness of R&D investment in an economy? To address this question, we apply three distinct approaches including (i) ordinary least square method, (ii) cross-country instrumental variable regression approach, and (iii) panel regression method. By using a dataset of both developed and emerging countries, we find that financial market development significantly contributes to the effectiveness of total R&D investment. This finding remains robust across different model specifications and individual estimation methods. Our finding provides an important guidance to policy makers in implementing a sound financial environment that can facilitate the total contribution of R&D investment.     

Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange

This study evaluates the existence of the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) as an evolutionary alternative to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) by applying daily returns on the TEPIX index in the Tehran stock exchange (TSE) in Iran. The data span of daily returns is from 1999 to 2013. In this paper four different tests in the form of two distinguished classes (linear and nonlinear) have been used to study adaptive behavior of returns. The results that were obtained from linear (automatic variance ratio and automatic portmanteau) and nonlinear (generalized spectral and McLeod–Li) tests represent the oscillatory manner of returns about dependency and independency which corresponds with the adaptive market hypothesis.     

The impact of lunchtime closure on market behaviour: evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange

This paper examines the impact of lunchtime closure on market behaviour. Between May and September, 1994 the Sydney Futures Exchange trialed lunchtime trading. The trial provides a unique natural laboratory experiment for examining the impact of lunchtime closure. The analysis reported in this paper documents abnormally high bid ask spreads, price volatility and trading volume on re‐opening of the market following lunchtime closure. These results confirm that closure has an impact on trading activity, and are consistent with the effects of strategic informed trading, a loss in price discovery and/or trading associated with risk transfer. An abnormal increase in trading volume prior to lunchtime closure is also documented, providing unambiguous evidence of trading activity motivated by risk transfer. Overall these results imply that lunchtime closure disrupts trading activity and reduces market quality by imposing additional costs on market participants.     

The impact of lunchtime closure on market behaviour: evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange

This paper examines the impact of lunchtime closure on market behaviour. Between May and September, 1994 the Sydney Futures Exchange trialed lunchtime trading. The trial provides a unique natural laboratory experiment for examining the impact of lunchtime closure. The analysis reported in this paper documents abnormally high bid ask spreads, price volatility and trading volume on re‐opening of the market following lunchtime closure. These results confirm that closure has an impact on trading activity, and are consistent with the effects of strategic informed trading, a loss in price discovery and/or trading associated with risk transfer. An abnormal increase in trading volume prior to lunchtime closure is also documented, providing unambiguous evidence of trading activity motivated by risk transfer. Overall these results imply that lunchtime closure disrupts trading activity and reduces market quality by imposing additional costs on market participants.