Supply Chains,Global Financial Shocks and Firm Behaviour towards Liquidity Needs

Driven by the increasingly important role of supply chains in global production, this paper studies empirical association between global credit‐market shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs across countries and industries. Focusing on the adjustment of working‐capital financing, we find two pieces of supporting evidence from international firm‐level panel data covering the period 2002:I–2012:IV. First, for industries where specific investment in the input supplier–customer relationship is large, firms are more exposed to credit‐market shocks. We find that measures of global credit‐market shocks are negatively associated with trade receivables, trade payables and inventories, conditional on the level of contract intensity in the industries where firms operate. Second, firms in emerging markets are more vulnerable to credit‐market shocks than are firms in developed countries. We are also able to verify the economic significance of sales growth, operating cash flows, cash stock and firm size in the overall adjustment. Our findings highlight the importance of balance‐sheet contagion along supply chains during the 2007–09 global financial crisis.     

Did Globalisation Influence Credit Market Deregulation?

We investigate whether globalisation influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970–2010. Globalisation is measured by the KOF indices of globalisation. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross‐sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalisation and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality using predicted trade openness as an instrumental variable and show that this approach gives rise to different conclusions. Two‐stage least squares estimations do not show that globalisation had a causal influence on credit market deregulation.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

新形势下中国粮食价格与粮食安全研究

中国粮食价格支持政策对粮价波动的影响比较大,加之粮食市场的开放度不断提高,粮食价格政策托市的现象日益突出,且国内外粮食价格倒挂现象依然突出,国际粮食价格传导对国内粮价的影响越来越大。从粮食生产与需求、粮食国际贸易和库存情况看,中国当前粮食安全是有保障的。但考虑到近年来全球粮食贸易呈现一系列新变化,中国保持粮食价格稳定难度正在提高,且种子安全、耕地安全问题不容忽视。应积极应对美国粮食霸权,进一步完善国内粮食价格体系、加大农业科技投入、加强基本农田保护,并不断优化粮食国际贸易,以确保中国粮食价格稳定,更好地保障中国粮食安全。     

Trade barriers in East and South East Asia: the implications for retailers

Many countries in East and South East Asia have erected trade barriers at various times since 1945. Many retail markets have therefore been closed to outside influence and investment. In the 1990s however such measures are being reversed and markets in East and South East Asia are becoming increasingly open. This openness is both a willing embrace of outside investment and a less willing acceptance of external pressures. This paper reviews the changes taking place and concludes that those retailers taking advantage of the opportunities are faced with a variety of problems. Indeed, it would seem that the removal of international trade barriers simply leads to their replacement with more difficult domestic market policies.     

我国海运服务贸易竞争力影响因素的实证研究

本文基于钻石模型中竞争力影响因素的理论,选取2001²010年我国沿海规模以上港口的外贸货物吞吐量、交通运输业生产总值、货物贸易出口额、远洋运输量以及海运服务贸易开放度等5个指标对我国海运服务贸易竞争力的影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明,国内市场需求的增加和海运开放程度的加大能提高我国海运服务贸易出口额。本文基于实证结果提出提高自有船舶运输比例、调整海运开放策略以及提高海运行业竞争力等对策建议。     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.     

Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?

What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans between 1980 and 2000. A key finding of this paper is that the probability of market access is not influenced by a country's frequency of defaults, and that a default, if resolved quickly, does not reduce significantly the probability of tapping the markets. We also find that trade openness, a standard measure of a country's links with the rest of the world, and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country's vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of economic policies and institutions appear to influence the government's ability to tap the markets. We also document that the average exclusion from international credit markets following a default declined from four years in the 1980s to two years in the 1990s.     

对外开放程度度量方法的研究综述

从贸易方面度量开放程度的指标有外贸依存度、关税率、有效保护率和数量限制平均覆盖率、非关税壁垒覆盖率、价格扭曲度等。从金融角度来研究开放的指标有外汇黑市溢价、本国对外投资和吸收外资的流量、存量、增长率以及它们占GDP的比重等。有些学者运用计量方法测算选定指标的理论预测值,通过比较实际值与理论预测值的差异来度量开放程度。国内学者一般选择3至6个分指标的加权平均值来度量我国经济的对外开放程度。     

中国发展内循环经济与拉动内需的思考

中国巨大的经济体量仅仅依靠外部需求拉动已不太现实,内需市场和内循环经济的重要性由此凸显。2018年中美贸易战爆发以来,外部经济环境变化使得外循环经济的可靠性大打折扣,中国急切需要一个强大稳定的内需市场予以支撑。中国企业自主创新能力和全要素生产率提升能力不足、企业在全球价值链分工中的位次不利于提升制造业部门工资水平、经济金融化和钱生钱逻辑倾向不利于扩大中等收入群体规模等问题,逐渐成为当前中国拉动内需、发展内循环经济的突出体制机制障碍。应采取积级应对当前不利局面、推动经济增长内生动力机制转换,积极应对美国打压、培育内需市场为中国高科技发展提供动力,坚持国内国际双循环发展新格局,加快形成两个市场良性循环机制等措施,推动中国经济持续健康发展。     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

中国国内服务贸易规则体系完善的建议

随着互联网、大数据的发展,国际服务贸易在全球价值链中的地位日益提升,与货物贸易一并构成两大贸易支柱。GATS作为第一部世界服务贸易框架性规则,对服务贸易的发展和顺畅运行做出了巨大贡献,但是其保护程度和开放程度已逐渐难以适应当前服务贸易的发展。多哈回合的停滞不前导致CPTPP等大型自由贸易协定相继产生,使得国际服务贸易规则有了进一步发展。中国服务贸易规则体系是中国调整国际服务贸易关系的法律集合,作为国际贸易法的国内渊源,中国国内服务贸易规则对于适应服务贸易发展现状和衔接国际服务贸易规则有着重要作用,本文即是通过分析国内服务贸易规则的现状及不足,并在借鉴CPTPP的基础上,提出建议。     

The trade credit channel revisited: evidence from micro data of Japanese small firms

It is suggested that trade credit can be a substitute for bank loans for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have little access to external funding sources. Using unique cross-sectional survey data of Japanese SMEs, we conduct a deep investigation into the substitutability between bank loans and trade credit. This survey contains rich information on the suppliers of trade credit to SMEs, thus enabling the examination of the channel through which credit is provided from suppliers to customers. We find that SMEs with little access to bank credit depend more on large suppliers for trade credit. We also find that when a purchase is made from a large supplier, more credit is indeed provided in the form of trade credit. Furthermore, this channel of credit from large suppliers to SMEs is only observed for solvent customers, not for insolvent customers. Our findings suggest that trade credit plays an important role for entrepreneurial firms over the financial growth cycle. For young and small firms with little access to bank loans trade credit is an important funding source.     

Surges

This paper examines when and why capital sometimes surges to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data on net capital flows for 56 EMEs over 1980−2011, we find that global factors, including US interest rates and investor risk aversion act as “gatekeepers” that determine when surges of capital to EMEs will occur. Whether a particular EME receives a surge, and the magnitude of that surge, however, depends largely on domestic factors such as its external financing need, capital account openness, and exchange rate regime. Differentiating between surges driven by exceptional behavior of asset flows (repatriation of foreign assets by domestic residents) from those driven by exceptional behavior of liability flows (nonresident investments into the country), shows the latter to be relatively more sensitive to global factors and contagion.     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

新时期内外贸一体化发展策略研究

内贸和外贸都是一国经济发展的重要动力,二者具有相互支撑、相互促进的作用。长期以来,中国一直实行内贸和外贸两条线管理模式,已经无法满足市场经济和贸易发展的客观要求。在当前全球经济下行贸易摩擦加剧、内外贸都面临着转型、出口消费投资在拉动经济增长中需要进一步协调配合的情况下,必须通过着力打造更加自由便利的国内营商环境、加快构建全国统一大市场大流通体系、大力发展跨境电子商务、扩大服务贸易规模提升发展水平等举措,切实推动中国内外贸一体化发展,为经济增长注入新活力。     

科学发展观在我国对外贸易宏观调控政策中的体现——以出口退税政策为例

随着美国金融危机的出现和加深,世界经济增长放缓,国际市场需求减少,我国出口贸易和国民经济的发展面临巨大的挑战。为此,政府不断运用出口退税政策对对外贸易进行宏观调控,以实现贸易、经济和社会的平稳、较快和可持续发展。至今我国政府已经进行了8次出口退税政策的调整,具体体现在出口退税政策的调整背景、出口退税的税负主体调整、出口退税的税率调整等方面。     

Globalization and imperfect labor market sorting

This paper focuses on the ability of the labor market to efficiently match heterogeneous workers to jobs within a given industry and the role that globalization plays in that process. Using matched worker–firm data from Sweden, we find strong evidence that openness improves the matching between workers and firms in industries with greater comparative advantage. This suggests that there may be significant gains from globalization that have not been identified in the past — globalization may improve the efficiency of the matching process in the labor market. These results remain unchanged after adding controls for technical change at the industry level or measures of domestic anti-competitive regulations and product market competition. Our results are also robust to alternative measures of the degree of matching, openness, and the trade status of an industry.