Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

A product diffusion model incorporating repeat purchases

A logistic-based model for forecasting the rate of product diffusion given aggregate time series data was constructed. The model differs from earlier models based on fitting the logistic to aggregate data in that it includes a submodel to separate replacement demand from first-time sales. We fit the theoretical model to data and show that forecasts will be significantly more accurate using this model instead of the logistic curve.     

Technology,productivity, and industry structure

This paper examines the controversy as to the particular firm size or industry structure that is most conducive to innovation. Four major conclusions emerge from the considerations advanced here. First, contrary to the focus of the controversy, the relevant issue is not one of the economic statics. Rather, it is one of technological dynamism. Second, variety is an essential ingredient of innovative activity, which can be sustained only through equivalent variety in firm size and industry structure. Thus, there is no one single optimum firm size or industry structure. Third, the origin of interindustry differences in innovation and productivity growth lies in certain processes of cumulative causation involving a multiplicity of variables rather than any one single factor at the exclusion of all others. In consequence, we find that productivity does not advance in a uniform manner across various industries. Rather, it is characterized by an inherently uneven pattern of growth. Fourth, it is pointless to strive for a balanced growth between various sectors of the economy. Rather, an effective policy is one of deliberately lopsided growth whereby fuller development of progressive industries makes it possible to generate the additional resources required for investment in the backward industries. Finally, while the policy to stimulate technical progress and productivity growth must be formulated in a broader socioeconomic context, its focus ought to be on the internal dynamics of technical change processes.     

Invention, innovation, and economic evolution

This paper provides a synopsis of logic and adventure in the process of fundamental innovation. The contemporary viewpoint of R&D management would have us believe that innovation is a rational process subject to prediction, regulation, and control. The alternative viewpoint is advanced here that innovation is neither merely a mechanical nor solely a goal-driven process. In reality, innovative systems are inherently untidy systems. The most important clue to any possible uniformity in the behavior of such systems is to be found in their very multiformity. Thus, the process of innovation is first and foremost a self-organizing process. This theory, based on the author's work of the past several years in this area, has led to identification and explanation of several lawlike relationships in the origin of fundamental technical breakthroughs, transfer of technical knowledge, and long-term economic evolution. There are a number of important implications of these regularities for technology and science policy during 1980s and beyond. First, success in innovation critically depends upon pursuing several small-scale experimental projects at the same time. Thus popular attempts to avoid duplication in R&D activity constitute what is really a penny-wise but pound-foolish policy. Second, nothing is more important in the future than to promote greater decentralization in the conduct of R&D enterprise. Third, one way out of the current worldwide economic stagnation is to be found in the development of a few, already available, fundamental innovations such as those in the microelectronics, solar energy, and biotechnology fields rather than in the eternal search for more technical breakthroughs. Thus the need in the future is not so much for disproportionate increase in basic research in relation to technological development effort as it is for striking a congruence between various components of R&D activity.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Assessing the impact of patent infringement on new product sales

In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes.     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Strategic management: The state-of-the-art and beyond

A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era. Current planning practices show that large corporations have developed complex strategic information systems, a decision-making process that is inherently organic, and planning operations that embody cybernetic principles. However, the prevailing approach to strategic planning is severely limited because it is based upon an old model of corporate management that has become outmoded: a restricted focus on hard technology leaves critical soft issues unresolved, authoritarian hierarchies produce the typical disadvantages of bureaucracy, and a closed-system orientation isolates the firm from its environment. New approaches to business management seem to be evolving now to overcome these constraints: the frontier of economic progress is shifting to a new form of soft growth, organizational structures are being transformed into entrepreneurial networks, and the institutional role of business is expanding to include its external constituencies. These trends represent key features of a new model of strategic management—the “strategically managed corporation”— that is specifically suited for fostering strategic change.     

Scientific and technical planning in the People's Republic of China

At a time when Western market economies are struggling with ways of directing and stimulating technological innovation, China, with a highly centralized system for the planning and coordination of science and technology, offers an unusual perspective on the feasibility and operations of a large-scale, national organization of scientific and technical resources. This paper describes the mechanics of the science and technology planning process in the Chinese system and then draws conclusions on a variety of pertinent issues, such as: whether or not planning is actually conducted at a macrolevel; what are the useful sources of information for scientific and technical decision making within the system; what are the motivations for doing research in China's planned economy and how do they affect the research that is done; and, in summation, does the Chinese attempt at macroscience and technology planning really work?