上市公司并购重组标的资产价值评估与交易定价关系研究

并购重组业务中最核心、也是一直以来困惑实务界的问题就是标的资产交易定价问题。在实际工作中,评估价值和交易价格往往混淆不清。本文针对收益法评估值作为并购重组交易定价的合理性问题,对2009-2011年上市公司并购重组案例中收益法预测值与实际值进行了T检验,并结合实践经验,推导出以评估值为交易定价的唯一依据既不科学也不合理,并详细阐述了企业价值评估与交易定价是两种不同性质的工作,应促进企业价值评估与交易定价的有机结合,正确发挥评估在并购重组各阶段的作用。本文最后分别针对评估领域、并购交易主体双方以及监管部门提出建议:推动评估结论由单一绝对值向价值区间转变、注重博弈过程、精简行政审批以及并购重组市场化等。     

“折现率与预期收益口径相配比”在收益法评估实务中的科学性分析

2005年《企业价值评估指导意见（试行）》颁布实施以来,收益法在评估企业价值实务中得到了广泛的运用,上市公司的并购重组,国有企业的改制、股权变动等一系列的经济行为,都需要对企业价值进行评估,而上述经济行为的评估大多数都采用了收益法。随着收益法的广泛运用,收益法的评估技巧也日趋成熟和完善,但笔者却发现,折现率与预期收益口径相配比在评估实务操作中的运用仍有待商榷。     

企业并购中基于收益法的企业价值评估研究

随着市场经济在我国的发展,出现了大量的企业并购,在企业并购活动中,评估目标企业的价值是一项非常重要的工作,进行企业价值评估的方法很多,文章运用收益法对企业价值的评估进行研究,包括:选择收益法评估企业价值的原因、收益法评估企业价值的基本公式、建立价值评估模型。     

发挥评估专业优势 服务资本市场建设——《上市公司并购重组企业价值评估和定价研究》课题座谈

2011年8月10日,中国资产评估协会和中国证监会上市公司监管部在京举办《上市公司并购重组企业价值评估和定价研究》课题发布座谈会,就课题成果及课题成果对评估行业和资本市场的影响等内容进行研讨。课题探究了资产评估和财务估值两种企业价值评估体系的特点,梳理了各类评估方法在资本市场的运用情况,通过国际比较与借鉴剖析国内上市公司并购重组中的评估与定价关系,结合实际提出了我国并购重组企业价值评估的意见和建议。     

关于企业价值评估收益法中折现率的选择问题探析

随着国民经济快速发展及资本市场日趋完善,企业间的并购活动不断增多,企业价值评估在经济活动中的重要性不断凸显。收益法作为衡量企业价值的重要方法,在企业价值评估中的应用逐渐增多。折现率的确定在运用收益法评估企业价值时尤为重要。本文对折现率的相关概念和主要确定方法做了理论探讨,以期能确定收益法中合理的折现率较为真实地反映企业价值。     

专业价值评估促进上市公司并购重组健康发展

2010年度我国上市公司并购重组交易总规模达到1194亿美元,比2009年增长2.7%,上市公司并购重组交易规模占整体并购重组市场规模的比重已经超过50%。随着上市公司并购重组活动日益活跃,如何对企业资产合理评估定价已经成     

并购境外专用机械公司市场法评估案例

企业价值评估实务中,特别是涉及国内公司并购境外公司股权业务,当不具备成本法和收益法评估条件时,尝试应用市场法为委托方提供咨询服务显得非常重要。本文将结合境外并购案企业价值评估实例,对市场法的应用与大家一起研究探讨。     

上市公司并购重组企业价值评估方法选择研究

随着国内上市公司并购重组活动日益活跃,如何对企业资产合理估值定价已经成为社会和市场迫切需要解决的问题。只有真实客观的对并购重组中涉及的企业价值进行评估,才能在交易中确保各方利益得到     

关于资产基础法中评估增减值所得税的处理

我国的企业价值评估发展至今．收益法和市场法的应用越来越普遍，但从并购重组市场的评估方法应用情况来看．成本法（资产基础法）仍然占据着非常重要的地位：同时．资产基础法评估实务中的一些疑问和争议仍未得到解决，关于资产基础法评估增减值是否要考虑所得税就是其中一个争论不断、值得探讨的问题。     

创业板公司并购价值评估问题研究——基于我国2010、2011年创业板公司并购数据分析

本文以我国2010年和2011年创业板公司并购价值评估案例为研究对象,对其整体评估和交易定价情况进行描述性统计,并从评估技术方面对创业板并购中的资产评估增值度、资产评估方法选择差异、收益法参数确定、关联和非关联交易、重大和非重大并购重组进行分析,提出应综合运用各种评估方法,规范收益法评估参数确定。还从监管方面提出应加大监管力度,进一步运用市场机制,减少置入与置出资产、关联和非关联交易、重大和非重大并购重组之间的评估差异等建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.