Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition. This paper draws work commissioned by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The views presented in this paper are those of the authors alone and should not be regarded as those of DEFRA or of individuals within DEFRA.     

Culture in Preferences for Income Equality and Safety Nets

Economic and social policies vary across countries, reflecting their cultures and shaping them. People in some countries are more loss averse than in others. People in some countries express stronger preferences for income equality than do people in others, and some countries offer stronger safety nets than others do. The cultural dimension of uncertainty avoidance expresses the degree to which people in a country feel uncomfortable with uncertainty and the way a country deals with the fact that the future can never be known. The author finds that uncertainty avoidance is associated with loss aversion. People are more loss averse in the domains of both portfolios and jobs in countries where uncertainty avoidance is high. Moreover, people in countries where uncertainty avoidance is high express stronger preferences for income equality, and social spending in such countries is high. The cultural dimension of power distance expresses the degree to which the less powerful members of a society accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. The author finds that people in countries where power distance is high express weaker preference for income equality, and social spending in such countries is low.     

Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

旅客行为时间价值的Logit计算模型改进研究

本文详细分析了旅客行为时间价值的影响因素,并在此基础上分析了用Logit模型确定旅客行为时间价值的理论方法。本文尝试对原有的计算模型进行改进,将旅客收入这一变量引入Logit模型,分析旅客收入对旅客出行决策的影响,以更准确地估测旅客时间价值、提高投资决策的准确性。     

Understanding Heterogeneous Preferences in Random Utility Models: A Latent Class Approach

A finite mixture approach toconditional logit models is developed in whichlatent classes are used to promoteunderstanding of systematic heterogeneity. The model is applied to wilderness recreationin which a branded choice experiment involvingchoice of one park from a demand system wasadministered to a sample of recreationists. The basis of membership in the classes orsegments in the sample involved attitudinalmeasures of motivations for taking a trip, aswell as their stated preferences overwilderness park attributes. The econometricanalysis suggested that four classes of peopleexist in the sample. Using the model toexamine welfare measures of some hypotheticalpolicy changes identified markedly differentwelfare effects than the standard singlesegment model, and provided insight into thedifferential impact of alternative policies.     

Exploring Voter Preferences in Cultural Policy: A Case Study for Austria

The aim of the paper is to explore the demographic, social, economic and politicaldeterminants of voting behavior in a recently held referendum on the constructionof a new theater (``Musiktheater') in the city of Linz (Upper Austria) in 2000. Itwas the first referendum on cultural policy of its kind in Austria, and it led to arejection of the proposal by a majority of the voters (59.70% of ``No' votes).Exploring the determinants of approval or disapproval of the proposition by usingfor group data in communities is thus an interesting question from an economic aswell as a political point of view. We find econometric evidence for the influence ofthe size of the population in the community, the distance of the community from thecity of Linz, income-related variables, variables denoting the economic structure ofthe community, and political variables such as the ratio of the communities' debt torevenues and voters' preferences in the last national election.     

金融安全区问题研究

亚洲金融危机发生后金融安全问题日益引起人们的关注,国内众多学者对金融危机、金融安全等问题进行了深入的研究,并纷纷提出建立我国金融安全区的建议。但对于什么是金融区和金融安全区却鲜有涉及,对于如何建设金融安全区更是未能给出一个令人满意的说法。笔者认为对金融安全区的研究,首先要区分由金融权力的空间延伸而形成的行政金融区和由经济运行的区域化特征而形成的经济金融区,在此基础上才能对金融我概念的内涵作出合理的归纳。     

明代北京杂役考述

明代北京内府与各衙门使用着大量杂役 ,其应役方式分为两种 :一种是抑配一些人户承当某种特定的役 ,并将这些人户编入特殊的户籍册 ,当役者一般都要长期甚至世代承充 ;另一种是由府州县从人丁事产相应的人户中点差 ,并应按规定的年限重新审编和更替。杂役户可享受一定数量的优免待遇 ,所以有不少民户投充杂役户 ,以逃避日益繁重的差役。明代中叶开始 ,各种杂役项目陆续改为折银输纳 ,许多杂役户也纳入均徭审编范围 ,两种应役方式的区别趋于模糊化     

A Latent Class Nested Logit Model for Rank-Ordered Data with Application to Cork Oak Reforestation

We analyze stated ranking data collected from recreational visitors to the Alcornocales Natural Park (ANP) in Spain. The ANP is a large protected area which comprises mainly cork oak woodlands. The visitors ranked cork oak reforestation programs delivering different sets of environmental (reforestation technique, biodiversity, forest surface) and social (jobs and recreation sites created) outcomes. We specify a novel latent class nested logit model for rank-ordered data to estimate the distribution of willingness-to-pay for each outcome. Our modeling approach jointly exploits recent advances in discrete choice methods. The results suggest that prioritizing biodiversity would increase certainty over public support for a reforestation program. In addition, a substantial fraction of the visitor population are willing to pay more for the social outcomes than the environmental outcomes, whereas the existing reforestation subsidies are often justified by the environmental outcomes alone.     

消费者的转基因食品安全管理期望研究

随着生物技术的发展,越来越多的转基因食品进入了人类的食物链。消费者认为有必要对转基因食品进行安全管理吗?他们对这些食品安全管理有哪些要求呢?通过面对面问卷调查方式,深入考查了武汉市621名消费者对转基因食品安全管理的期望,并对不同人群的差异作了分析,提出了转基因食品安全管理的建议。     

奥运科技评价方法研究

科技奥运,既是中国申办2008年奥运会成功的重要理念,也将成为北京奥运成功举办的重要保障条件。对奥运科技的相关技术领域开展评价可以将有限的科技资源优化配置,确定北京奥运的科技发展战略。论述了奥运科技评价的意义;从宏观层面对目前奥运科技的总体评价和从微观层面对奥运科技的某一子领域的优先领域评价。在科技优先领域评价的基础上结合奥运会的特点对奥运科技评价方法和指标体系提出了自己的研究结论。最后,在已建立评价模型的基础上对评价结果进行了分析。     

再分配倾向的决定:对既有文献的考察

本文对再分配倾向决定领域的既有文献进行详尽考察,认为从内在动力角度来理解各种决定因素才是根本,归纳提炼了再分配倾向决定的四大动机:经济利益动机、风险规避动机、公平信念动机和声誉理想动机。再分配倾向决定的四大动机通过不尽相同的理论逻辑机制和多种实证影响因素对人们的再分配倾向产生影响,四大动机的框架为实证研究中的因素筛选提供了有力的工具。对于该领域进一步的研究,本文提出应用实验手段的重要性,并应注意宏观变量对再分配倾向的内生性影响。     

关于所得税会计中资产负债表债务法的研究

税法与财务会计由于各自目的不同，两者很难或也没有必要做到完全统一。本文从会计角度，按国际财务报告准则第12号要求的资产负债表债务法，具体分析其理论基础、暂时性差异和递延税款的确认、计量与报告。文章认为，我国作为世界贸易组织的成员和世界资本市场的参与者，国家会计准则与国际财务报告准则趋同是提供可比的和高质量会计信息的必要前提。从资产负债表债务法在财务报表中对暂时性差异和递延税款进行双重表达的方式上看，它能使报表使用者更容易获得因暂时性差异对企业长短期财务状况和现金流量影响的信息。     

网上银行安全战略研究

互联网的迅速普及,正在引发一场全球性的商务革命。电子商务是信息时代的必然趋势,同时也给银行业的发展带来了新的机遇。网上银行的一系列过程都体现了参与各方的权力、责任、义务和利益。网上银行运作中的安全问题,已不可否认地成为阻碍网上银行发展的一个主要因素。为了确保我国网上银行的安全,可以采取以下战略。     

Allowing for Household Preferences in Emission Trading – A Contribution to the Climate Policy Debate

In the context of emission trading it seems to be taken as given that people's preferences can be ignored with respect to the whole process of fixing emission targets and allocating emission permits to polluters. With this paper we want to reopen the debate on how citizens can be involved in this process. We try to show how citizen preferences can be included in the process of pollution control through emission trading. We propose an emission trading system where all emission permits are initially allocated to households who are then allowed to sell them in the permit market or to withhold (at least some of) them in order to reduce total pollution. This proposal tries to overcome the fundamental disadvantage of traditional permit systems which neglect consumer preferences by solely distributing emission permits to producers / polluters. In our system the property right to nature is re-allocated to the households who obtain the opportunity of reducing actual emissions according to their personal preferences by withholding a part or all of the emission permits allotted to them. Such a change in environmental policy would mark a return to the traditional principles of consumer sovereignty by involving households (at least partially) in the social abatement decision process instead of excluding them. Another advantage of admitting households to the TEP market as sellers or buyers of permits is that this increases the number of agents in the permit market and thus significantly reduces the possibilities of strategic market manipulations.     

中部地区农地流转特征及影响因素分析——基于中部六省的调查

应用分类评定模型(Logit模型)对中国中部地区的农户调查数据研究表明:地权稳定性、地区经济发展水平对农地转入和转出都有显著的正向影响;家庭年总收入、非农收入比重、外出务工劳动力比重、土地流转价格对土地转出有显著的正向影响,而对土地转入有显著的负影响;户主年龄对土地转出影响不显著、对转入有显著的正向影响;户主受教育程度对土地转入和转出的影响均不显著。研究的结果表明,要促进我国中部地区农地流转,必须继续贯彻惠农政策,大力发展农村经济,完善农地流转的相关政策法规和服务,增强地权的稳定性。     

城市道路交通流对交通安全的影响分析研究

城市道路交通是由人、车、路、环境等基本要素构成的动态复杂相互融合的系统。在这四个因素之中,单纯由其中单个因素引起的道路交通事故非常少,通常都是几个因素共同作用下的结果。从城市道路交通流的交通组成和交通量两个方面对交通安全的影响进行分析研究,以期给城市道路交通条件的改善提供明确的方向。     

Preferences for redistribution and exposure to tax-benefit schemes in Europe

This paper provides evidence that attitudes towards redistribution are associated with the extent of generosity of the redistributive context experienced by the individual, as measured by the likelihood of receiving positive benefit transfers net of fiscal contribution. We estimate reduced form tax-benefit equations with the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), and match the implied parameters to the respondents of the European Social Survey (ESS) on the basis of their characteristics. The period of analysis is 2008–2016. For identification, we exploit exogenous cross-country and time variation in tax rules and market income to disentangle implications of exposure to tax-benefit rules on preferences for redistribution from the effects of changes in income inequality. We find that exposure to positive net benefits increases support for redistribution by 1.4%–3% on baseline models, the effect being robust across a variety of specifications.     

A Strategic Approach to Offshoring

In the context of a simple model of strategic offshoring, we investigate the reasons why firms may simultaneously source fragments domestically and internationally. We explore the impacts of offshoring on the production pattern of finished goods, tradable fragment prices, and welfare in a partial equilibrium context. The policy implications of attempts to restrict offshoring are also considered. The analysis shows that an offshoring equilibrium may exist in the absence of comparative advantage in fragments, that offshoring is welfare improving if the costs are sufficiently small, and that attempts (by both countries) to prevent offshoring may paradoxically lower both fragment use and price.