Entry costs, industry structure, and cross-country income and TFP differences

Entry costs vary dramatically across countries. To assess their impact on cross-country differences in output and TFP, we construct a model with endogenous entry and operation decisions by firms. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. distribution of employment and firms by size. Higher entry costs lead to greater misallocation of productive factors and lower TFP and output. In the model, countries in the lowest decile of the entry costs distribution have 1.32 to 1.45 times higher TFP and 1.52 to 1.75 times higher output per worker than countries in the highest decile. As in the data, higher entry costs are associated with lower entry rates and business density.     

城市化、创新与全要素生产率增长——基于省际面板数据的经验研究

本文首先采用Malmquist指数方法测算我国29个省份1991-2007年间全要素生产率增长情况,研究城市化、创新与全要素生产率之间的协整关系,并基于面板误差修正模型考察短期波动的影响。得出结论:(1)城市化、创新与全要素生产率具有长期均衡关系,城市化和创新对全要素生产率增长具有长期的正向影响,城市化通过创新中介效应显著地驱动全要素生产率增长,这种影响在沿海和内陆之间存在差异;(2)城市化对全要素生产率具有积极的短期影响,且滞后一期影响强度大于当期,而创新对全要素生产率并不产生短期正向影响。     

Dynamics of agglomeration,accessibility, and total factor productivity: evidence from Japanese regions

With Japan’s declining population, improving productivity is important to achieving continuous regional economic growth. This study focuses on the regional effects of population agglomeration and accessibility on total factor productivity (TFP). Empirical analysis shows that population agglomeration contributed to TFP growth, most significantly in the Greater Tokyo area. The interaction (flow) of people was examined and the importance of high-speed transportation network for TFP growth was clarified as the effect of accessibility on TFP growth. Population agglomeration and the development of transportation network are thus important strategies for growing regional economies.     

The impacts of membership in multi-hospital systems on cost,productivity growth and technical change

We examine whether affiliation in a multi-hospital system contributes to higher rates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, technological progress and cost efficiency. With a 1996 to 1999 panel of 248 US hospitals (some are private nonprofit (church-related and other nonprofit) and the remaining are public (government, nonfederal)), empirical results indicate that urban system member hospitals experienced higher rates of both TFP growth and technical progress than the rates of TFP growth and technical progress experienced by urban nonsystem hospitals. Rural system member hospitals experienced smaller rates of both TFP decline and technical regress than the rates of TFP decline and technical regress experienced by rural nonsystem hospitals.     

Total factor productivity convergence in German states since reunification: Evidence and explanations

A quarter-century after reunification, labor productivity in the states of eastern Germany continues to lag systematically behind the West. Persistent gaps in total factor productivity (TFP) are the proximate cause; conventional and capital-free measurements confirm a sharp slowdown in TFP growth after 1995. Strikingly, eastern capital intensity, especially in industry, exceeds values in the West, casting doubt on the embodied technology hypothesis. TFP growth is negatively associated with rates of investment expenditures. The stubborn East-West TFP gap is best explained by low concentration of managers, low startup intensity and the distribution of firm size in the East rather than R&D activities.     

A Model of TFP

This paper proposes an aggregative model of total factor productivity (TFP) in the spirit of Houthakker (1955–1956) . It considers a frictional labour market where production units are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and jobs are created and destroyed as in Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) . An aggregate production function is derived by aggregating across micro-production units in equilibrium. The level of TFP is explicitly shown to depend on the underlying distribution of shocks as well as on all the characteristics of the labour market as summarized by the job-destruction decision. The model is also used to study the effects of labour-market policies on the level of measured TFP.     

Trade, Technology and UK Wage Inequality

This paper examines the impact of international trade and technical change on changes in the UK skill premium. We first measure trade as changes in product prices and technical change as TFP growth. Then we relate price and TFP changes to a set of underlying forces. Among our results are (a) changes in prices, not TFP, were the major force behind the rise in inequality in the 1980s; (b) changes in OECD prices and UK tariffs significantly raised 1980s skill premia through their effects on prices, and that industry concentration significantly raised 1980s skill premia through its effect on TFP.     

中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析

本文在测算和分析1982—2002年省区全要素生产率(TFP)的基础上进行TFP的收敛检验,并与收入(劳均GDP)的收敛模式做了对比分析。分析表明TFP解释了我国省区收入差距的主要部分;我们应用OLS、PanelData固定效应估计方法和DynamicPanelData(一阶差分GMM)方法进行收敛检验,得出的结论是:TFP与收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性,全国范围内没有绝对收敛,只有条件收敛,但是TFP的收敛速度明显高于收入的收敛速度。三大地区中只有东部地区存在俱乐部收敛现象。而且,我国TFP与收入的收敛模式与世界范围的TFP和收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性。     

DIVERSE ORGANIZATIONS AND THE COMPETITION FOR TALENT

We propose a theory of firm production that requires diverse inputs. We show that in a competitive labor market, firms differ in their skill composition. Organizations with higher total factor productivity (TFP) are larger and hire from a broader range of skills. Technological progress leads to an increase of all wages and results in downsizing. Quantifying productivity using our model shows that a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function generates unbiased estimates of TFP but biased estimates of marginal product and elasticity of substitution across skills. Our model also generates estimates of the TFP distribution based on CEO compensation alone.     

Asymmetric effects of shocks on TFP

We study the TFP distribution and examine the non-stationarity of productivity series at various quantiles. Using the quantile autoregression unit root test, we find that the US TFP exhibits an asymmetric adjustment dynamics, that is, positive and negative shocks might have different (permanent or temporary) effects on the TFP. Shocks dissemination depends on the local behaviour of the TFP. We find that positive shocks have permanent effects on the TFP, while negative shocks can potentially have only transitory effects.     

FDI、人力资本与我国技术水平提升——基于DEA与VAR的实证分析

本文在运用数据包络分析(DEA)测算我国1983—2007年全要素生产率的变动情况的基础上,使用基于VAR的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法研究外商直接投资(FDI)、人力资本存量与全要素生产率变动之间的动态关系。结果表明:FDI与人力资本存量的提高显著提升了我国全要素生产率水平;FDI与人力资本存量之间存在互为因果关系,且人力资本对FDI的促进作用更强。基于此,本文认为促进人力资本积累、提升技术吸收消化能力,对于引进外资和推动技术进步意义重大。     

Be productive or face decline. On the sources and determinants of output growth in Italian manufacturing firms

This article investigates the sources and determinants of output growth of Italian manufacturing firms. Applying stochastic frontier techniques, we decompose output growth into factor accumulation and TFP growth for the period 1998–2003. TFP growth is further decomposed into technological change, efficiency change and scale effects. Two key results emerge from the analysis. After confirming that both input accumulation and TFP growth are important in explaining output growth, we show that efficiency change (technological catch-up) is the most significant component of TFP growth in explaining output growth distribution. Furthermore, using a specific model of the asymmetric error component, we find that R&D spillovers, banking efficiency and public infrastructures have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on technological catch-up.     

Economic reforms,efficiency and productivity in Chinese banking

This paper analyzes the impact of banking reforms on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in Chinese banking industry. Using an input distance function, we find that joint-equity banks are more efficient than wholly state-owned banks (WSOBs). Furthermore, both WSOBs and joint-equity banks are found to be operating slightly below their optimal size, suggesting potential advantages in expansion of their businesses. Overall, TFP growth was 4.4% per annum for the sample period 1993–2002. Joint-equity banks experienced much higher growth in TFP (5.5% per annum) compared to the WSOBs (1.4% per annum).      

Information technology,efficiency and productivity: evidence from Korean local governments

This study evaluates the performance of Korean local government by measuring their technical efficiency (TE) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth and, more importantly, examining the impact of information technology (IT) on this performance. The study is different from received analysis in that a unique measure of the state of IT–the Informatization Index–is used to investigate the impact of IT on both TE and TFP growth. Empirical analyses are conducted on data from 222 Korean local governments for the period 1999 to 2001. In particular, data envelopment analysis techniques are applied to calculate TE scores and TFP growth rates for sampled local governments. The empirical findings confirm the positive impact IT has in improving technical efficiency and accelerating productivity growth. The estimated coefficients are correctly signed (with other regional characteristics controlled for) when TE scores and TFP growth rates are regressed on the Index. In addition, the findings indicate that economies of density are present in the production of local public services.     

货币升值的后果--基于中国经济特征事实的理论框架

本文在一个贸易品/非贸易品两部门模型中,讨论了真实汇率外生条件下部门之间全要素生产率变化对产业结构与贸易余额的影响。我们发现,在保持名义有效汇率固定与国内物价水平稳定的货币政策组合下,市场经济体制改革所带来的贸易品部门相对非贸易品部门更快的全要素生产率进步所带来的不仅是经济增长,还会造成(1)工业/服务业产业结构扭曲;(2)贸易顺差扩大;(3)工资水平下降,并阻碍了农村劳动力向城市转移;(4)工资下降与利润率上升,收入分配恶化。解决上述问题的关键在于人民币汇率水平调整与非贸易品部门市场化改革和全要素生产率提高。     

Changes in officials,total factor productivity fluctuation and government transformation: Evidence from Chinese prefecture cities

This paper investigates the interrelationships between changes in officials and total factor productivity (TFP) in China. The tournament competition for promotion results in a series of predicaments, such as excessive investment, duplicate construction, split regional markets and misallocations; these negative effects further inhibit local TFP. Local government transformation from driving investment to providing services can promote TFP. We use data from 230 prefecture cities between 1999 and 2013 and find the following: (a) in recent years with the process of government transformation, changes in officials have typically had less impact on TFP fluctuation than in previous years; (b) changes in officials mainly affect technology efficiency (TE) in TFP; and (c) the mediation model reveals that changes in officials' positions influences TFP through economic spillovers and tax competition. Overall, our paper offers novel evidence for the impact of government administration on productivity and technology development, which is significant for policy decisions during government transformation.     

集聚经济、基础设施与制造业全要素生产率:来自中国207个地级市的证据

随着我国经济高质量发展战略的实施,经济发展的基础设施有了很大改进。地区基础设施改进会从外部性上促进企业内部和企业之间的有效连接,降低物流成本和交易成本,提高产业全要素生产率。在基础设施变化条件下,我国分地区集聚经济对全要素生产率提升的影响差异需作分类研究,以便深入讨论产业经济高质量发展问题。使用PSTR模型,引入非期望产出的GML指数,以及有关计算产业集聚和相关多样化的指标,实证研究不同地区制造业集聚经济随着基础设施变化影响全要素生产率的机制。结果显示:产业集聚与相关多样性均对全要素生产率产生非线性影响,并基本为正;集聚经济对GML指数的正向作用小于传统的全要素生产率;集聚经济与全要素生产率的非线性关系在不同地区表现出不同的特征,东部地区出现过度集聚现象;人力资本、研发投入和外商投资均随着基础设施增加对全要素生产率产生更强的正向作用,东部地区政府干预促进当地生产水平,中西部地区政府干预作用随着基础设施增加而降低。     

Productivity,energy prices and the great moderation: A new link

We build upon recent research that attributes the moderation of output volatility since the 1980s to the reduced volatility of the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) by investigating the linkage between energy price fluctuations and the stochastic process for TFP. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until around 1982, energy prices negatively affected TFP. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover accounts for close to 68 percent of the moderation in output volatility.     

The distributional effects of selection and capital accumulation on firm productivity under imperfect capital markets

In this evolutionary model, random shocks create differences in the rate of return on capital, while individual saving and investment behavior can reduce these differences over time. Firms with either low total factor productivity (TFP) or a low average return on capital are selected for exit, and new firms enter to take their place. As would be expected, a higher turnover rate improves TFP and reduces its variation. While we show that a higher turnover rate would result in a more positively skewed TFP distribution if exit selection is based directly upon TFP, we find that when we select firms for exit based on their average product of capital, the marginal impact of a higher turnover rate is to more negatively skew the TFP distribution. Overall, our simulations highlight the importance of considering the role selection may play in shaping the distribution of productivity when econometricians seek estimates of firm inefficiency.

Population distribution,effective area and economic growth

The usual measure for the factor land is the total area. But total area is a flawed measure because land is of unequal quality. To account for land quality, we use an alternative measure called effective area. Effective area is based on spatial population distribution which captures both natural conditions and human activity. Theoretically, effective area explains economic growth better than total area that biases the measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Empirically on the basis of 40 years of panel data for the United States, an increase of 10% in effective area is associated with an economic growth of 5%, and the omission of effective area undervalues the growth of TFP by 8.1%.