现代商业银行资产负债管理:科学,还是艺术?

科学和艺术是人们观察世界、探索世界的两种模式和方法。在现代商业银行资产负债管理领域,同样存在科学和艺术两种管理模式和方法:对商业银行资产负债的业务总量、匹配结构和定价水平的合理把握,需要运用科学有效的资产负债模型和工具;而对商业银行风险控制与业绩回报、资本约束与业务增长、当期收益与长远价值之间关系的合理平衡,则更多地体现为一种艺术上的统筹协调。因此,商业银行资产负债管理是一门科学还是一门     

商业银行资产负债管理与转型

正编者按:资产负债业务是商业银行赖以生存的业务主体和收入来源,如何有效运用资产负债管理理论框架和工具方法,在银行业务的风险和收益相互平衡的基础上,实现银行短期目标和长期价值的有机协调,一直是理论界和实务领域追逐和讨论的热点。在当前商业银行资产负债规模不断扩大,业务结构和市场环境日趋复杂的形势下,加快建立符合国际化大型上市银行要     

经济资本管理出效益

经济资本管理应运而生,日益成为银行管理技术的核心,也成为当前商业银行发展高级化的必然选择。过去一二十年间,国际银行界的风险管理,从资产负债管理逐步向以风险计量和风险优化为核心的全面风险管理过渡,银行更加注重资本管理和价值管理,     

资产负债比例管理的理论与实践

一、资产负债比例管理是一种具体的管理方法1、理论源泉。资产负债比例管理在理论上源于资产负债管理理论。资产负债管理理论形成于70年代,盛行于80年代。这一理论是继负债管理理论,资产管理理论之后出现的一种综合性理论。这种理论也称作资产负债联合管理理论。它是一种协调银行各种业务以实现其经营目标的全面的管理理论。这一理论强调银行在其资产负债业务中必须同时管理资产、负债的数量结构、期限结构、利率结构和风险结构,以使银行在市场     

现代商业银行资产负债管理：科学，还是艺术？

科学和艺术是人们观察世界,探索世界的两种模式和方法。在现代商业银行资产负债管理领域,同样存在科学和艺术两种管理模式和方法：对商业银行资产负债的业务总量、匹配结构和定价水平的合理把握,需要运用科学有效的资产负债模型和工具;而对商业银行风险控制与业绩回报、资本约束与业务增长、当期收益与长远价值之间关系的合理平衡,     

农村信用社实行资产负债比例管理的难点

农村信用社实行资产负债比例管理的难点董祖锋资产负债比例管理是西方商业银行采用的一种先进的管理方法。具体内容是指银行按照负债制约资产的原则，根据负债的性质、结构和总量来决定资产的投向、结构和总量，从而实现资金的流动性，安全性和盈利性之间的协调平衡。今年...     

农业银行必须实行资产负债比例管理

农业银行必须实行资产负债比例管理徐红一、什么是资产负债比例管理所谓资产负债债比例管理，是指金融企业的资产与负债之间、负债与资本之间、资产项目之间保持一定的比例关系，达到资金总量和结构的平衡。通俗地讲，各项存款是负债业务，各项贷款是资产业务。负债业务是...     

巴塞尔Ⅲ框架下我国商业银行风险资本管理研究

G20峰会上确立的巴塞尔Ⅲ框架重新诠释了资本的定义,建立以"资本约束"为核心的资产负债管理将更被我国广大商业银行所重视。在巴塞尔协议Ⅲ框架下,"逆周期"式的资本监管要求和流动性管理标准将催生新的资本管理方法,这不但是我国银行在巴塞尔协议监管下参与国际竞争的必然选择,也是中国商业银行管理转型、平衡资本配置与风险补偿、真正提高整体盈利能力的前提和策略手段。本文将探讨在巴塞尔Ⅲ框架下如何采用资产负债管理的策略和方法对风险资本进行有效管理。     

宏观变化、银行结构与流动性风险——基于流动性覆盖率LCR的实证分析

流动性风险是商业银行面临的最重要、最致命、最隐蔽的风险之一。本文基于内外部因素分析框架,运用压力情景下的LCR作为风险评价指标,通过构建VAR计量模型,借助脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,定量验证了宏观变化、结构调整对大型、中型银行流动性的冲击效应及贡献度大小。研究发现,外部宏观因素对银行流动性风险的影响增强。其中,大型银行得益于被动负债和中央银行的救助优势,对自身资产负债结构摆布及流动性风险管控能力更强;中型银行由于同业及表外业务过快扩张,流动性风险更为突出。据此,宏观层面要更加注重宏观流动性把控,强化金融监管行为的有机协调;微观上则应进一步提升银行流动性风险管理能力,加强同业、表外业务的全面流动性管理与监管。     

以经济资本管理推动银行资本节约型发展

经济资本管理的核心就是在银行内部建立资本约束机制,以资本约束风险资产的增长,有效控制银行的总体风险,使经济资本与监管资本保持协调平衡,确保资本充足率水平达到监管要求     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.