Patterns of economic change in the south‐west during the fifteenth century: evidence from the reductions to the fifteenths and tenths

The fifteenth century rebates to the fifteenth and tenth form a large body of evidence which has rarely been used to assess economic change. They were set by local commissioners who employed their knowledge of the conditions within their counties. In many cases the commissioners can be demonstrated to have applied the reductions in a thoughtful and proportionate manner, often revealing local economic conditions. There is considerable variation in their application between counties and their use is greatly enhanced when compared with other sources.     

Tracking the causes of eurozone external imbalances: new evidence and some policy implications

The paper assesses the contribution of key drivers of external imbalances in the Eurozone through the estimation of a panel-data Vector Autoregressive model over 1975–2011. Growth fluctuations, initially associated with demand booms triggered by unusually low interest rates, and later with demand contractions resulting from the crisis and policy adjustments, have played an important role in current account balance fluctuations. Changes in real exchange rates or unit labor costs have played a less important role. Demand shocks have contributed more to current account balance dynamics in the Eurozone periphery than in the core, whereas competitiveness has been a less prominent factor in the periphery but relatively more important in the core. Some broad policy implications of the findings for demand management in a currency union are discussed, including for fiscal policy coordination and macroprudential policies when union members face asymmetric shocks. The role of internal devaluation policies as a means of correcting external imbalances is also reassessed.     

新世纪的深圳:新机遇、新定位、新发展

深圳经济特区,在上世纪最后的20年里发挥着我国改革开放和现代化建设排头兵的作用,这种排头兵的作用将在新世纪得到进一步的发挥。这种所谓“进一步的发挥”,意味着它与过去20年的发展相对而言,既有继承性和连续性,又有新的特征。新世纪要求它有新的定位,扮演新的角色,实现新的     

新世纪 新思路 新手笔

世人祈盼、憧憬、祝福的新世纪,伴着环球大地的升腾,开始了！ 经历了5年内部发行的《港口经济》杂志,在新世纪到来的前夕,正式创刊,公开发行,迈出了坚实的一步。 刊物在这样一种情势下创办,自然也就有了它不同寻常的意义。它应当探索21世纪港口经济发展的规律;它应当传播21世纪港口经济发展的信息;它应当为高科技信息化时代的港口经济发展作出自己的贡献。一句话,它应当办出21世纪的水平。     

The sixteenth‐century price rise: new evidence from Scotland, 1500–85

This article contributes to the emerging belief among early modern economic historians that sixteenth‐century inflation was primarily caused by monetary factors. The Scottish case study reveals a strong relationship between coinage debasement and rising prices, a contention strengthened by the fact that the Scottish experience of inflation was high in European terms, and, in particular, stands at a considerable distance from the English pattern. This study includes the first scholarly examination of prices during the 1540s, and reveals that substantial inflation first emerged during this hitherto neglected decade. Prices plateaued during the 1550s, and rose consistently from 1560 to 1585. Meanwhile real wages declined during the 1540s and from 1560 onwards. This article is methodologically innovative in constructing two baskets of commodities, designed to represent the elite experience, alongside a more traditional basket based on a working household. These reveal the divergent experiences of the price rise within Scotland: rising prices hit the poor harder than the rich due to the high cost of domestic agricultural goods in the subsistence basket and the deflationary impact of wages and luxury goods upon the overall elite basket.     

新经济与传统经济的比较分析

知识经济是新世纪最主要的经济特征和主体产业。它是为满足市场需求或创造市场需求的社会经济活动。新世纪的产业结构主要由创新型产业和集成型产业组成。我国要从工业经济向知识经济过渡,必须要借助于具有一定规模的集成型高新技术产业。     

Labour costs dynamics in the Euro area: some empirical evidence

Little is known about how the introduction of a common currency and a single monetary policy has affected the labour cost dynamics in the Euro area. The literature has focused mainly on business cycle synchronisation. This paper analyses labour costs convergence in the Euro area since 1995, combining results from different data and two complementary approaches. First we present some relevant facts about wages and unit labour cost dynamics and, in a second phase, we investigate whether the physical introduction of the euro has changed the volatility and the synchronisation of labour costs cycles, in a context of globalisation. Overall, our results indicate that labour markets in the Euro area are very heterogeneous. However, some signs of labour cost convergence are beginning to emerge. After the circulation of the euro, it seems that a reduction in nominal unit labour costs differences and an increase on the degree of synchronisation has occurred, which has been strengthened in the economic and financial crisis period.     

Nominal rigidity and some new evidence on the New Keynesian theory of the output-inflation tradeoff

This paper develops a series of tests to check whether the New Keynesian nominal rigidity hypothesis on the output-inflation tradeoff withstands new evidence. In so doing, I summarize and evaluate four different estimation methods that have been applied in the literature to address this hypothesis. Both cross-country and over-time variations in the output-inflation tradeoff are checked with the tests that differentiate the effects on the tradeoff that are attributable to nominal rigidity (the New Keynesian argument) from those ascribable to variance in nominal growth (the alternative new classical explanation). I find that in line with the New Keynesian hypothesis, nominal rigidity is an important determinant of the tradeoff. Given less rigid prices in high-inflation environments, changes in nominal demand are transmitted to quicker and larger movements in prices and lead to smaller fluctuations in the real economy. The tradeoff between output and inflation is hence smaller.     

Bribery in Indonesia: some evidence from micro-level data

This paper outlines and tests a model in which firms seek to reduce the cost of taxes and regulatory compliance by offering bribes to government officials. It finds that firms' profitability (scaled by production costs) largely determines both the amounts paid and the time spent negotiating bribes with officials. Competition between arms of the bureaucracy for bribe income seems to be a result of decentralisation, but the analysis suggests that this competition would lead to a spreading of bribes among a larger number of officials rather than to a significant increase in their total amount. Local governments may be able to raise more revenue by reducing the number of taxes and regulations and using part of the increased revenue to raise the salaries of officials, while devoting more effort to restraining corrupt behaviour. But progress may be blocked by central government tax officials increasing their demands for bribes.     

Turnpike trusts and property income: new evidence on the effects of transport improvements and legislation in eighteenth‐century England1

Numerous Acts of Parliament changed the financing of transport infrastructure in eighteenth‐century England. This paper examines the economic effects of turnpike acts, which greatly improved road infrastructure by introducing tolls. It shows that turnpike trusts increased property income in local areas by at least 20 per cent. The findings shed light on why local property owners promoted and managed turnpikes. They also show that turnpike trusts accounted for at least 20 per cent of the total growth in real land rents between 1690 and 1815, and added at least 1.65 per cent to national income in 1815.     

Internal immigrant mobility in the early 20th century: evidence from Galveston,Texas

Between 1907 and 1914, the “Galveston Movement,” a philanthropic effort spearheaded by Jacob Schiff, fostered the immigration of approximately 10,000 Russian Jews through the Port of Galveston, Texas. Upon arrival, households were given train tickets to pre-selected locations west of the Mississippi River where a job awaited. Despite the program’s stated purpose to locate new Russian Jewish immigrants to the Western part of the U.S., we find that roughly 85 to 90 percent of the prime-age male participants ultimately moved east of the Mississippi, typically to large Northeastern and Midwestern cities. We use a standard framework for modeling location decisions to show destination assignments made cities more desirable, but this effect was overwhelmed by the attraction of religious and country of origin enclaves. Economic conditions appear to be of secondary importance to our ethnic measures, even for participants at the top of the skill distribution.     

African agricultural productivity and the transatlantic slave trade: evidence from Senegambia in the nineteenth century

Agriculture has played a central role in Africa's long‐term economic development. Previous research has argued that the low productivity of African economies has posed significant challenges to African efforts to produce an agricultural surplus or to develop commercial agriculture. Low agricultural productivity has also served as a key explanation for the transatlantic slave trade, on the basis that it was more profitable to export humans overseas than to grow and export produce. However, the field has suffered from a lack of comparable empirical evidence. This article contributes to this field by presenting quantitative data on historical land and labour productivity in Africa, from a case study of the agricultural productivity of Senegambia in the early nineteenth century. Focusing on five key crops, our results suggest that both land and labour productivity was lower in Senegambia than it was in all other parts of the world for which we have found comparable data. This article thus lends support to claims that stress ecological factors as one of the main determinants of Africa's historical development.     

The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence

"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.     

绿色物流:21世纪物流发展新趋势

一、发展绿色物流是现代物流系统的最佳选择 绿色物流又称环保物流,是指为了达到顾客满意,连接绿色供给主体和绿色需求主体,克服空间和时间阻碍的快速有效的绿色商品和服务流动的经济管理活动过程.绿色物流从环境的角度对物流体系进行改进,形成了与环境共生型的物流管理系统.     

论新世纪日本经济的走向

近十年的日本经济只能用“不景气”或者“停滞”而不是“危机”或者“衰退”来形容；10年来日本的经济实力及日本国民的生活水平变化不大；其独特的公司制度既减轻了10年的经济停滞对经济的打击和对国民生活的不利影响，又延缓了经济更快地复苏；同时，日本经济正处于调整期，面临新的突破；长期来讲，没有理由为日本经济悲观。     

Sector priorities in meeting basic needs: some statistical evidence

This paper looks at what kinds of relationships exist between different indicators of basic needs satisfaction in order to make some general statements about linkages and priorities - for example, to see whether countries that have done better than average in meeting basic needs (i.e. have higher than average life expectancies) also have above-average performance in each of the basic needs sectors (primary education, basic health care, nutrition, clean water, adequate sanitation, shelter), or only in some of them. Rather than examining the experience of one particular country, this paper examines statistical indicators for the basic needs progress and basic needs inputs, constructed from World Bank data covering 86 developing countries. The results of four different methodologies confirm a high association between literacy and life expectancy. From this evidence, I suggest that basic education should have high priority in any program of meeting basic needs.     

House prices in the Ottoman Empire: evidence from eighteenth‐century Edirne†

This study uses a new dataset of 2,246 notarial deeds of house sales from one of the major cities of the Ottoman Empire, Edirne, covering the period from 1720 to 1814. It estimates real hedonic house prices and urban wealth inequality for the housing market. It shows that house size, proximity to the commercial centre, access to fresh water, and family ties were important determinants of relative house prices. These findings also apply to the different quartiles of the market, indicating limited market segmentation. It demonstrates that there was an increase in housing wealth inequality during the eighteenth century as house prices became more dispersed. The hedonic house price index provides evidence that inflation‐adjusted house prices declined substantially following the Russo‐Turkish war of 1768–74. The decline is mainly explained through demographic shocks induced by plague epidemics, natural disasters, and other population movements driven by wars, army mobilization, and political upheavals.     

The changing role of fairs in the long eighteenth century: evidence from the north midlands1

Despite the recent interest of historians in retailing and distribution, little attention has been paid to fairs. It has often been assumed that by 1800 they were mainly occasions for entertainment. Using a range of sources and focusing mainly on the north midlands, this article argues that many fairs remained significant during the eighteenth century for agricultural marketing, some business and financial transactions, and retailing. By the early nineteenth century, rapidly changing economic conditions, coupled with changed attitudes, threatened these traditional roles and fairs had to adapt or face inevitable decline.