Slow track, fast track, and the “Galactic Club”

Discoveries in the physical and biological sciences suggest that intelligence is widely distributed throughout the universe. Before long, either we will decide that these discoveries have pointed us towards a false conclusion, or we will obtain undeniable evidence of extraterrestrial life. After finding one extraterrestrial society, we are likely to discover others and, in this manner, become a part of the “Galactic Club”. Following the “slow track”, an initial encounter will lead to accelerated search efforts that will put us in touch, one by one, with additional societies. Following the “fast track”, our initial contact will be with an affiliate of the Galactic Club, and this society will give us instant access to other members. The physical constraints imposed by interstellar distances, coupled with our understanding of large social systems, suggest that the Galactic Club will be large, stable, slow-paced, and exert only loose control over its members. The two tracks have different implications for managing initial contact, protecting our security, knowledge transfer, handling culture change, and preserving our identity.     

Applicability Of The Conservatism Accounting Convention in China: Empirical Evidence

“Conservatism” is a widely accepted accounting convention in the industrialized world, but it has long been slated and prohibited in China under the orthodox ideological influences. To date, the conservatism convention has not been fully adopted or implemented in Chinese accounting although the Chinese government has made substantial efforts to reform its accounting system to bridge the gaps between the accounting practices in China and other industrialized countries in recent years. This study has, through a wide range questionnaire survey, empirically investigated the applicability of the conservatism accounting convention in China. We found that the survey respondents (consisted of business accountants, management, government officials, bank loan officers, investment analysts and auditors), in general, held no negative attitudes against the conservatism convention under the changing business environment in the country. There is clear evidence that various interested parties of business accounting would support an expanded adoption of “conservatism” in Chinese accounting. The study findings will facilitate a proper assessment of the future development of accounting standards and practices in China.     

Psychology, meaning and the challenges of longevity

Humankind has begun to reap one of the most valued harvests of its scientific and technological pursuits: a significant increase in human longevity. We now live longer than ever before, due in large part to advances in medicine and health care that provide those who have the opportunity to afford them a lifespan that for many approaches or exceeds the 100-year mark. It is now within the realm of possibility that people will live lives of 125 years or more within the next century. However, our ability to increase physical longevity may have outstripped our ability to deal individually and socially with these new lives, these new existences that go well beyond what has traditionally been considered a “working life”. How well-prepared are we psychologically to cope with the meaning of a life that extends to as much as 150 years or more? In this new “age of longevity”, what are the challenges for psychology as a resource for humanity in its quest to give definition to the experience of being alive, as well as for managing the affairs of everyday life? Traditional developmental theories in psychology tend to articulate early stages of life in detail, but are generally mute on the matter of later life. Cognitive psychology has been inclined to view longevity as leading to a deterioration of mental faculties due to “aging”. This paper examines the psychological implications of increased lifespans from an optimistic perspective by reviewing current developments in research on cognition, emotion and aging. The review identifies trends in psychology that, if emphasized and strengthened, may lead to improved theoretical frameworks that cast longevity in a positive light, and that identify how people can find meaning and fulfillment throughout their whole lifespan.

“Grow old along with me! The best is yet to be, The last of life for which the first was made.” Robert Browning “Rabbi Ben Ezra”

I first encountered Browning’s works as an undergraduate, and being a pre-engineering student at the time my tendencies toward poetry were stunted to say the best. Few of the great works of literature my teachers compelled me to read at that stage of my life and development made enough of an impact to last beyond the length of the course requiring their reading. Much has changed since then and my interests in literature and what literature has to say that is of value for our lives has deepened. But Browning’s enthusiastic call to join him in aging has always been a fascination. Indeed, what could be more of a contradiction to modern attitudes about becoming elderly than to claim “the best is yet to be”? What can be more of a challenge to how we approach the relationship between being young and being old than to claim that the last of life is “for which the first was meant”? What can the possible rewards of the golden years be that transcend the glorious enthusiasms, unfettered optimisms, and just pure physical conveniences of being young? Or, was Browning simply trying to sucker us all into a fait accompli, the hopeful outcome of which is the envy of the very youth that the aged often envy so much?There is little enough envy of the aged today. I approach these years with great caution, recognizing that how I look upon those who are two decades older than myself will, in turn, condition me to see myself in those years much in the way that I see them now. “Aging” is not something anyone really wants to do. We want to, at best, “grow older”, a perspective that carries with it a more positive spin: growing wiser, growing up, or simply “growing” with all of its new-age connotations of personal enlightenment and becoming. I am not “aging”, I am “becoming at one”.The language we have adopted to talk about the time-course of life, and particularly about the years in the latter third of that course, does much to frame both how we live those years and how we anticipate them in our youth. Our expectations are ones of decline, physical debilitation and mental infirmity. We “retire”, as in withdrawal into seclusion, away from the mainstream of life and into the backwater eddy of inaction. On the shelf.Much of this view has been reinforced by how humanity has approached examining this aspect of its own time course through science. We study aging with an eye to how its effects influence the abilities of those so afflicted to perform or operate compared to those who still have a grasp on their full faculties. And, of course, we find that as people grow older, they do not approach life in the same way as do younger people.Part of our view on life comes from the very way in which science is funded: those interested in the last of life often receive their support from the National Institute on Aging, not the National Institute on The Last of Life for Which the First Was Made. Research agendas often focus on identifying sources of infirmity and potential prostheses, either physical or social, that can ease the lives of the elderly on their way toward achieving the goal of successful aging. All too often, success in aging means imposing relatively few demands on social resources or on the lives of younger people, such as family members. In our “ageist” society, elderliness is not generally equated with status and stature. Less and less, the young “listen” to the old out of deep interest in their lives and their experiences. Wisdom is the providence of the freshly matured and recently educated.The shortcomings of life in the advancing years are many and well-documented in the research literature. Memory spans decrease, information retrieval becomes less reliable, and new information is less readily assimilated. As people become older, they appear to rely more and more on automatic processing of information, quick associations and the like, rather than deliberative and conscious reasoning [1]. For the older mind, intuition is at least moderately preferred over analysis. For example, younger people tend to interpret stories analytically, focusing on details, while older people tend to focus less on a story’s details and more on its “gist” and its underlying significance to things that are important to them [2], and tend to do better at grasping and dealing with information in terms of its holistic meaning [3 and 4].The effects of these differences in information processing between young and old can be seen in practical matters of everyday life, such as decision making and judgment. Johnson [5], for example, found that older adults use simplifying decision strategies more often than younger adults. These strategies, such as noncompensatory rules that consider only the positive or the negative aspects of a decision option but not both, relieve one of the psychological burden of making complex and effortful tradeoffs, at the possible expense of efficiency and accuracy. Chasseigne et al. [6] found that as people age, they become less consistent in their use of information in making judgments and predictions; even reducing the overall information load and demands on memory does little to improve the reliability of their judgments. ¹     

Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM

We amend the conditional CAPM to allow for unobservable long-run changes in risk factor loadings. In this environment, investors rationally “learn” the long-run level of factor loadings from the observation of realized returns. As a consequence of this assumption, we model conditional betas using the Kalman filter. Because of its focus on low-frequency variation in betas, our approach circumvents recent criticisms of the conditional CAPM. When tested on portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market, our learning-augmented conditional CAPM passes the specification tests.     

Extended peer communities and the ascendance of post-normal politics

This paper describes an approach to the operationalisation of extended peer communities that deploys uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy, and examines the crucial role of trust. Trust underwrites both the dialogue central to extended peer communities and the functional utility of the knowledge so created, because when “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high … and the framing of the problem involves politics and values as much as science” (Ravetz J. Knowledge in an uncertain world. New Scientist 1990;127:2) the taken-for-granted trust in ‘normal' science is no longer assured, necessitating the cultivation of trust by other means. It is argued that extended peer communities provide a focus for the ascendant politics of the post-normal realm, in resonance with recently articulated insights into broader social theory.“… we continue to believe in the sciences, but instead of taking in their objectivity, their truth, their coldness, their extraterritoriality … we retain what has always been most interesting about them: their daring, their experimentation, their uncertainty, their warmth, their incongruous blend of hybrids, their crazy ability to reconstitute the social bond. We take away from them only the mystery of their birth and the danger their clandestineness posed to democracy” (Latour B. We have never been modern. Hemel Hempstead (UK): Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993:142).     

Interstellar humanity

Fifty years after Olaf Stapledon's landmark essay “Interplanetary man?”, we propose the coming era of “interstellar humanity”. Over the next 1000 years the domain of humanity will increasingly spread to the stars, a process that will alter our future in profound ways. At least three factors will drive this expansion: (1) increased understanding of cosmic evolution, changing our perception of ourselves and our place in the universe; (2) contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, bringing knowledge, wisdom, and problems of culture contact now unforeseen; and (3) interstellar travel, transporting humanity's emissaries to at least the nearest stars. The consequences of these events are not predictable in detail, but may be studied by examining the lessons of cosmic evolution; by using history to analyze the reception of new world views and intellectual culture contacts on Earth; and by anticipating the likelihood of success in interstellar travel and its effects. The prospect of interstellar humanity during the next millennium is likely to have an effect on all branches of terrestrial endeavor, whether religion, philosophy, science or the arts. The stage of human drama will be vastly expanded.     

CRITICAL THEORY AND ACCOUNTING HISTORY: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

This paper briefly examines the contributions that postmodern (critical) research has made to the historical accounting literature and the opportunities that this new body of literature has created for traditional historical researchers. I suggest that the “new history” that has rendered the “familiar strange” has provided new understanding of our discipline that should be welcomed by all historians. The paper briefly examines two areas, the emergence of double entry bookkeeping and cost accounting, to demonstrate the new insights that critical historians have provided to what has been considered a settled agenda. I conclude by noting that the diversity critical research has added to the accounting history research should be celebrated, but caution that we not engage in the modernist strategy of trying to find a “certified path to knowledge.” Accounting history will be enhanced if our community adopts the values–tolerance, willingness to listen, and respect for alternative views–ithat have enabled researchers in other disciplines to flourish.     

How can IMF policy eliminate country moral hazard and account for externalities?

Costly crisis prevention has positive external effects, which leads to free-riding of governments on each other's efforts. “Ordinary” IMF loans aggravate existing externalities, reinforcing the under-investment problem. We consider the reform proposals of the “Meltzer commission” in both loan and insurance models and show how the IMF can eliminate country moral. The efficiency-ensuring loan policy accounts for given externalities and involves effort-contingent discounts on interests or the extension of credit volume. Similar results hold for the insurance framework. Ex ante participation requires that smaller countries be “subsidized” by large ones, or that IMF policy consider distributional aspects in addition to efficiency.     

To sum up: avoiding unsustainable futures

An analytical summary of the discussions on the European Societal Bill follows that ‘unacceptable futures’ can be avoided.The papers in this Special Issue of Futures have tried to unfold the many faces of the Societal Bill, that is the behaviours, and their financial counterpart, of the social groups more effected by expected demographic changes. We did so in particular by focusing on modelling strategies that translate parameterised behaviours into economic flows through the channel of institutional arrangements currently operating in European societies, i.e. eligibility conditions and tax and benefits formulae. As for the last point one must not forget that certain behaviours respond strategically to certain eligibility conditions.Our aim in this paper is to conclude on the implications of the previous analysis. These implications are quite varied and they will be summarised at different levels. Despite a certain pessimistic stance occasionally used here in order to emphasise the consequences of doing nothing, we want to argue that prompt societal adaptation can be a way to avoid what we will latter call “unacceptable futures”.In a way, what we do in this chapter is not a full futures analysis for we mainly explore the “trends” scenario rather than anticipate alternative, and more acceptable, futures. However, we will say something about alternatives latter on. For the time being, let us set the scenario of the “unacceptable futures” in order to ascertain the order of magnitude of the challenge ahead and the need for action.Societal adaptation is obviously the key word for action. Individuals, by nature, will always try to counter those developments that hit them worst and institutional and administrative arrangements should facilitate this while assuring social compatibility. The fuel for the engine of change—individual action—will always be there but the engine itself must change so as to select the best behaviours by creating the right incentives. Welfare enhancing institutional innovation thus goes well beyond mere financial balancing of the Societal Bill. If well designed, it will also imply financial soundness. The latter however can be obtained without the former. But without institutional innovation and behavioural change the financial soundness of the Societal Bill would hardly make us better off.     

An “American Dream” theory of corporate executive Fraud

In this paper, we first describe a “Broken Trust” theory that was introduced by Albrecht el al. [Albrecht, W. S., Albrecht, C. C., & Albrecht, C. O. (2004). Fraud and corporate executives: Agency, Stewardship and Broken Trust. Journal of Forensic Accounting, 5, 109–130] to explain corporate executive Fraud. The Broken Trust theory is primarily based on an “Agency” theory from economic literature and a “Stewardship” theory from psychology literature. We next describe an “American Dream” theory from sociology literature to complement Albrecht el al.'s (2004) Broken Trust theory. Like the Broken Trust theory, the American Dream theory relates to a “Fraud Triangle” concept to explain corporate executive Fraud. Finally, we provide some anecdotal evidence from recent high profile corporate executive Fraud to explore the American Dream theory. We conclude our thoughts on corporate executive Fraud from a teaching perspective.     

Comprehensive state health reform initiatives

Policy makers, consumers, providers and purchasers of health care will do well to pay close attention to the many comprehensive health care reform initiatives under consideration by state legislatures.     

A writing intervention for the accounting classroom: dealing with the problem of faulty modifiers

Good communication skills continue to be viewed as critical for success in accounting. This paper demonstrates a writing-skills “intervention” that deals with faulty modifiers, a grammatical problem that can inhibit accounting students and professionals from achieving the clarity and conciseness widely regarded as essential in the accounting profession. The intervention consists of a handout distributed to students – fashioned to sensitize them to the pervasiveness of faulty modifiers and help them avoid the problem – and an in-class discussion of the handout. By design, this intervention is both inexpensive and unobtrusive. For the accounting instructor, we provide in the body of the paper a technical, but unpedantic and informal, analysis of faulty modifiers, including numerous examples of the problem, accompanied by alternative corrections. To date, few papers in the accounting education literature that deal with writing problems present direct assessment evidence. To assess the efficacy and perceived value of our learning intervention, we collected assessment data – both direct (i.e., a set of three diagnostic tests) and indirect (i.e., feedback from a student questionnaire) from two institutions at which our learning intervention was tested. These data suggest than an intervention of the sort described here can be valuable in remedying discrete weaknesses of student writing. In a larger sense, we believe our paper can be used as a model for the development of similar “interventions” that cover other grammatical problems, and that can serve either as stand-alone entities (similar to the method proposed by Reinstein and Houston (2004) [Using the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “plain English” guidelines to improve accounting students’ writing skills. Journal of Accounting Education, 22, 53–67]) or as complementary resources to more comprehensive and formal writing programs.     

Financialized accounts: Share buy-backs, mark to market and holding the financial line in the S&P 500

In recent years the US corporate sector has deployed more cash from operations to finance the repurchase of outstanding share capital for treasury stock. Shares repurchased for treasury stock can help flatter earnings per share, fund senior management share option compensation schemes and finance corporate acquisitions. In financialized accounts these are now significant transactions which, it is argued, serve the financial interests of managers and investors.The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is now demanding a “greater use of fair value measurements in financial statements” with the result that share options and corporate acquisitions will be “marked to market”. This will force a financialized ratchet because managers in the S&P 500 will need step up cash extraction if they are to hold the financial line.     

Putting Humpty Dumpty back together again? The structures of knowledge and the future of the social sciences

Fifty years ago it was clear what the social sciences were, what they did and where they were going. This consensus was the product of the long-term construction of the structures of knowledge that resulted in the institutionalization of a set of disciplines that would function to guarantee ordered change in the social sphere in the name of “progress” through scientific control, exercised by “experts” and based on “hard facts”. After 1945, the scholarly legitimacy of the premises underlying the partitions separating the disciplines and the practical usefulness of the distinctions declined and from 1968 were overtly contested. It is contended that the structures of knowledge, including the social sciences, have entered into secular crisis and thus a period characterized by the heightened transformative capacity of agency typical of transitions. Since no outcome may be predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms, this paper ends by considering modes of scholarly participation in the transformation of the social sciences.

“Don’t you think you’d be safer down on the ground?” Alice went on, not with any idea of making another riddle, but simply in her good-natured anxiety for the queer creature. “That wall is so very narrow!” Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There

Fifty years ago a serious discussion focused on the future of the “social sciences” collectively might have sounded at best like self-reflexive narcissism or simply a waste of time. At worst it might have seemed merely absurd. That is not to say that there were not significant disagreements within and across the social science disciplines. There was, however, a widely held consensus on the intellectual and institutional organization of knowledge that recognized boundaries among the humanities, the social sciences and the sciences, and the singular disciplines of which they were composed.The exposition that follows will begin with a sketch of the historical construction of this relational structure, both constitutive of and constituted by material reality, which left open the possibility for theoretical and methodological innovation and substantive development but at the same time disciplined the trajectory of such developments.This sketch will be followed by an overview of how the upheavals of the 1960’s dramatically foregrounded the premises of disciplinary autonomy (indeed, that had never been totally devoid of controversy). As the foundational principles of theoretical approaches, methodological practices, and proprietary subject-matters underwent radical change and race, gender, and class constraints on the make-up of faculties and student-bodies were opened up through a combination of critical reflection and direct action, questions concerning the future intellectual and institutional centers for the production of legitimate and authoritative knowledge of human reality emerged dramatically.Finally, the crisis in the long-term evolution of the internal contradictions of the “two cultures” structure of knowledge and thus also of the social sciences suggests imminent structural transformation. No outcome is predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms and their institutional organization, but elective agency will be a vital ingredient in their construction and in imagining the possible alternative social structures of which they will be an inseparable part. The last question to be addressed, then, concerns the modes of scholarly participation in this transition.     

When courts are overgrown with grass: the role of courts in the 21st Century

What will be the social role of courts over the future? This essay explores this question by examining the “five dimensions” of judiciary—the judiciary as a branch of government, subsystem of the legal system, as a forum for resolving dispute, as public agency, and an institution of a changing society. It considers the duty of courts to safeguard the interests of future generations; the place of courts during “the end of authority”; the increasing use of artificial intelligence in formal adjudication, and concludes with a time when “the courts of justice are overgrown with grass”.     

On the role of sunk costs and asset specificity in outsourcing decisions: a research note

The accounting literature has argued that firms overengage in outsourcing because they tend to ignore the transaction costs involved in buying services from external suppliers. A field experiment with managers of health care organizations shows that decision makers are actually quite sensitive to the asset specificity associated with the “buy” option in an outsourcing decision. However, they also appear inappropriately sensitive to the sunk costs inherent in most real-life outsourcing decisions, and may actually underengage in outsourcing. Prior commitment to internal procurement systematically reduced the willingness to outsource, relative to a pure “make or buy” scenario.     

Can we control health care costs?

The health care system will never go bankrupt, the author of this article asserts. But the expense of maintaining it is putting such a strain on our resources that bankruptcy sometimes seems not so far off. The controls and devices we use, like certificate-of-need requirements and health management organizations, obviously have not slowed the rise in costs. We need to focus our attention on three elements in the picture that can do the most about curbing expenditures: the health care administrator, the physician, and the business organization (the labor union as well as the corporation). The author offers suggestions for action from these quarters.     

Defining the road ahead: thinking strategically in the new era of health care reform

Understanding the implications of the new health care reform legislation, including those provisions that do not take effect for several years, will be critical in developing a successful strategic plan under the new environment of health care reform and avoiding unintended consequences of decisions made without the benefit of long-term thinking. Although this article is not a comprehensive assessment of the challenges and opportunities that exist under health care reform, nor a layout of all of the issues, it looks at some of the key areas in order to demonstrate why employers need to identify critical pathways and the associated risks and benefits of each decision. Key health care reform areas include insurance market reforms, grandfather rules, provisions that have the potential to influence the underlying cost of health care, the individual mandate, the employer mandate (including the free-choice voucher program) and the excise tax on high-cost plans.     

Cost uncertainty and budget overspending: A safety-first perspective

In this study we model a cost center manager's decision about how to achieve a required level of output. The spending plan that the manager adopts is expected to result in successful performance, but at an uncertain cost. The uncertainty associated with the spending plan is inversely related to the expected cost. The analysis presented in this article suggests that a manager who exhibits Safety-First behavior and wishes to avoid large budget deviations is more likely to exceed what he or she perceives to be the overspending limit rather than the underspending limit. That manager will tend to incur costs in excess of the budget. This mathematical result has an intuitive appeal; a manager is willing to pay a certain “risk premium” to avoid the risk of large budget deviations and accompanying adverse consequences. This result has implications for both performance evaluation and budget setting, particularly in the public sector. Under the circumstances that we describe, using budgets in evaluating managerial performance may be misleading. Another application of our study relates to the “budget creep” phenomenon and how, under particular circumstances, its size can be reduced.