分整阶数半参数估计的有限样本性质研究

随着对经济和金融时间序列长记忆性的研究,分整阶数估计已成为当前理论研究的焦点问题。以对数周期图回归和局部Whittle方法为代表的半参数分整阶数估计方法在实践中得到广泛应用,但对这两类半参数估计方法的有限样本性质的比较则鲜有涉及,影响了在实践中对估计方法的选择。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,在不同数据产生的过程下,这两种半参数估计方法有限样本性质的研究结果表明：在ARFIMA(0, d, 0)过程下,LW类估计量具有较好的小样本性质;在平稳ARFIMA(1, d, 0)过程下,本文建议的QGPH估计量的有限样本性质要优于其他对数周期图估计量;在非平稳过程下,MGPH的偏差最小。     

半参数变系数空间滞后模型的截面极大似然估计

在线性参数空间滞后模型中,解释变量的系数一般假设为固定常数,本文首先放松了这种假设,将解释变量的系数设定为某一变量的未知函数,提出一类全新的半参数变系数空间滞后模型;其次导出了该模型的截面极大似然估计,并证明了该估计的一致性;最后用蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法考察了该估计在小样本条件下的性质,数值模拟结果显示我们提出的估计方法在小样本条件下依然有优良的表现。     

Blockwise bootstrap wavelet in nonparametric regression model with weakly dependent processes

In this paper, we suggest a blockwise bootstrap wavelet to estimate the regression function in the nonparametric regression models with weakly dependent processes for both designs of fixed and random. We obtain the asymptotic orders of the biases and variances of the estimators and establish the asymptotic normality for a modified version of the estimators. We also introduce a principle to select the length of data block. These results show that the blockwise bootstrap wavelet is valid for general weakly dependent processes such as α-mixing, φ-mixing and ρ-mixing random variables.     

Estimators of Regression Parameters for Truncated and Censored Data

Estimators of parameters in semi-parametric left truncated and right censored regression models are proposed. In contrast to the majority of existing estimators, the proposed estimators do not require the error term of the regression model to have a symmetric distribution. In addition the estimators use asymmetric “trimming” of observations. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are shown. Finite sample properties are considered in a small simulation study. For the left truncated case, an empirical application illustrates the usefulness of the estimator.     

Time–frequency quantile dependence between Bitcoin and global equity markets

In this paper, we examine return dependence between Bitcoin and stock market returns using a novel quantile cross-spectral dependence approach. The results suggest a right-tail (high return) dependence between Bitcoin and the stock markets in the long term and that said dependence decreases significantly from yearly to monthly investment horizons. Furthermore, right-tail dependence between Bitcoin and the US stock market is the strongest compared with other stock markets. We also extract information on the time-varying and time–frequency structure of co-movements between Bitcoin and the stock markets using wavelet-coherence analysis, the results of which suggest that the co-movement between Bitcoin and the US stock market is positive, whereas, for other stock markets, it is negative at certain frequencies and time periods. Overall, the findings highlight additional risk-management capabilities of Bitcoin according to different stock markets.     

一种新的收入差距研究的计量方法——基于分布函数的半参数化估计

收入差距扩大的成因分解方法的最新研究强调描述整个收入分布,并且对收入分布的变化进行分解,进而得到各个统计量的分解,这类方法的优点是可以显示收入差距的变化主要集中在哪些收入群体中。本文着重介绍了两类对收入分布函数进行成因分解的半参数化方法:一类是Lemieux及其合作者们发展起来的权重重置法;另一类是Machado和Mata首创的基于分位数回归的分解方法。     

回弹效应加剧了中国能源消耗总量的攀升吗？

基于29个省份1995~2011年能源平衡表核算出各省份生产性能源消耗总量,构建考虑地区经济空间溢出以及能源—经济非线性关系的面板数据半参数空间滞后模型,在测算各省份历年能源产出弹性的基础上对技术进步导致的能源消耗回弹效应进行了估计,考察回弹效应对能源消耗总量攀升的影响。研究发现,中国能源消耗回弹效应具有明显的时空特征,并非所有年份均会出现回弹效应,回弹效应相对集中出现在东部省份,而经济欠发达省份回弹效应难以呈现;大部分省份所出现的回弹效应主要集中在2001年以前;能源消耗总量攀升并非是回弹效应所致,乃是由于技术水平和经济增长质量低下造成的。     

小波神经网络对沪深A300的分析和预测

针对金融时间序列非平稳性、非线性的特点,本文采用小波分析与人工神经网络相结合的方法,对沪深A300收盘价进行分析和预测。结果表明,小波神经网络有较强的预测能力,能达到预期效果。为了验证该方法的预测能力,进一步将时间序列数据多步分段,全方位地进行预测,并与小波-ARIMA模型、BP神经网络预测方法进行比较,体现了小波神经网络的预测优势。     

How do trade openness,public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach

This study explores the relationship between trade openness, public expenditure, institutional performance, and unemployment in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (formerly the Organization of the Islamic Conference). The conventional panel data techniques overlook cross-sectional dependence and yield-biased results. A new methodology called dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) is employed to deal with the issue of cross-sectional dependence. The long-run results demonstrate that trade openness is inversely and significantly associated with overall unemployment and youth unemployment in lower-income as well as all the OIC economies and positively correlated in the higher-income OIC group. Public expenditure has an inverse and significant correlation with unemployment in OIC countries overall and higher-income OIC countries. Moreover, institutional performance and foreign direct investment are negatively related to unemployment in all OIC economies. The research shows the need for the continuation of open trade policies, strong institutions, and higher public expenditure in the OIC countries in order to decrease overall unemployment—in particular, youth unemployment.     

Testing Independence in Models of Productive Efficiency

Bootstrap methods for inference in nonparametric models of productive efficiency can be simplified, reducing computational burden, when the independence condition implicitly assumed in Simar and Wilson (1998) holds. This paper surveys nonparametric tests of independence that might be useful in this context.     

Dependence structure and symmetry of Huang-Kotz FGM distributions and their extensions

An extension of FGM class of bivariate distributions with given marginals is presented. For Huang-Kotz FGM distributions some theorems characterizing symmetry and conditions for independence are obtained. The new family of distributions allows us to achieve correlation between the components greater than 0.5.     

基于收入分布的收入差距扩大成因的分解

本文采用核平滑化的半参方法估计了1987年、1996年、2004年我国城市居民收入分布曲线,并且基于收入分布又进一步分解了导致城市居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。收入差距扩大的成因可以分为两类:一是劳动者的劳动力特点的普遍变化,如劳动者教育水平的提高,行业、职业分布的变化;二是对劳动力特点回报率的变化,如教育回报率的提高,各行业、职业回报率差异的扩大等。本文发现后者是导致收入差距扩大的主要原因。     

Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil

This paper studies the relationship between futures prices of natural gas and oil. Using wavelet analysis, our research reveals that, throughout the sampled period: (1) the prices of natural gas futures and oil futures have high covariance at high frequencies but not so much at low frequencies; (2) an increase in financialization of commodities commensurate with investors search for yield results in higher covariance between the futures prices of natural gas and oil; and (3) the volatility of neither time series consistently leads the other even at high frequencies.     

基于主成分分析的我国外贸依存度的影响因素研究

文章首先对我国外贸依存度的影响因素进行定性分析,然后在简单介绍主成分分析方法的基础之上,运用主成分分析法将影响因素归为经济总量因子与经济结构因子两个主要成分。最后根据主要影响因素对构建适度的外贸依存度提出了相关政策建议。