REIT Stock Market Volatility and Expected Returns

We study the relation between REIT stock volatility and future returns, focusing particularly on the financial crisis period of 2007–2009. There is ongoing debate about whether stock volatility can forecast future returns. Our findings suggest that REIT‐implied volatility is negatively related to contemporaneous stock returns; there is a significant positive relationship between REIT implied volatility and future stock volatility; and there is a significant negative relation between REIT implied volatility and future stock returns. Lastly, we develop trading rules based on REIT implied volatility to test whether these relationships are exploitable. The result suggests a potentially profitable trading strategy.     

Option Trading and REIT Returns

This article examines the relation between option trading volume and real estate investment trust (REIT) market performance. Specifically, we find that option volume increases are followed by decreases in returns. Furthermore, the portion of option volume that is orthogonal to REIT characteristics drives the observed return predictability relation, thereby suggesting that the return predictability of option trading is (at least partially) attributable to information‐based explanations. Finally, consistent with informed traders favoring option market activities due to short‐sale costs and/or constraints, we find option based return predictability is more evident within REITs than non‐REITs, even though firms within this industry are generally viewed as informationally transparent.     

The Dynamics of REIT Capital Flows and Returns

This study examines the effects of capital flows into the REIT sector on REIT returns and, simultaneously, the effects of REIT returns on subsequent REIT capital flows. The dynamic relation between REIT capital flows and returns is estimated using vector autoregression (VAR) techniques. Unlike static regression techniques, our dynamic model produces estimates of the short-run relationships, long-run relationships, impulse response functions and forecast variance decompositions. We find evidence that REIT equity flows are significantly positively related to the prior quarter's flows and negatively related to flows from two quarters ago. The evidence on the responsiveness of flows to prior returns is time-period specific. In the important post-1992 subperiod, REIT returns do not significantly affect REIT flows in any of the VAR model specifications. Simultaneously, REIT capital flows do appear to have a significant influence on equity REIT returns.     

The Underlying Return-Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis

Multifactor approaches to real estate returns have emphasized a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach originally used in arbitrage pricing theory. Use of high-frequency data, trading strategies and growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events makes the macrovariable procedure problematic. This article explores an alternative to the principal components analysis approach: independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks independence and maximizes a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA procedure based on a kurtosis maximization algorithm to real estate investment trust (REIT) data. The results show that ICA successfully captures kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for developing of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions, augmenting traditional mean–variance approaches.     

An Analysis of the Cross Section of Returns for EREITs Using a Varying-Risk Beta Model

A dual-beta asset pricing model is employed to examine the cross-section of realized equity real estate investment trust ( EREIT ) returns over bull and bear markets. No significant relationship is found between EREIT returns and a constant beta. However, beta explains cross-sectional returns when betas are allowed to vary across bull markets. This positive relationship exists for both January and non-January months. During bear-market months, no significant relationship is found between REIT betas and returns. But, during such months, size and book-to-market ratio are found to be negatively related to returns.     

Asset Pricing Information in Vintage REIT Returns: An Information Subset Test

REIT return data prior to the new REIT era offer important asset pricing information. At issue is whether empiricists should focus attention on returns series covering only the new period. We use a generalized asset pricing and information subset test to disentangle REIT information from information available in several benchmark series. Results indicate that REIT returns are informative about the discounting process during the pre–new-era period. Thus, the distribution of vintage REIT returns is not fully explained by either broad market indexes or from size-based anomalies. This study should be viewed as a useful empirical precedent for those studying REIT data preceding the new REIT era.     

REIT and Commercial Real Estate Returns: A Postmortem of the Financial Crisis

In the years surrounding the financial crisis, the share prices of equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were much more volatile than the underlying commercial real estate prices. To better understand this phenomenon we examine the cross‐sectional dispersion of REIT returns during this time period with a particular focus on the influence of their capital structures. By looking at both the debt ratio and the maturity structure of the debt, we separate the pure leverage effect from the effect of financial distress. Consistent with leverage and financial distress costs amplifying the price decline, we find that the share prices of REITs with higher debt‐to‐asset ratios and shorter maturity debt fell more during the 2007 to early‐2009 crisis period. Although REIT prices rebounded with the bounce back in commercial real estate prices, financial distress costs had a permanent effect on REIT values. In particular, we find that REITs with more debt due during the crisis period tended to sell more property and issue more equity in 2009, when prices were depressed.     

Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance

We document the presence of Markov switching regimes in expected returns, variances and the implied reward‐to‐risk ratio of real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and compare them to properties of stocks and bonds. Our evidence suggests that regime switching techniques are more successful over the period 1972–2008 than other time‐series models are. When the analysis is extended to a multivariate setting in which REIT, stock and bond returns are modeled jointly, we find that the data call for the specification of four separate regimes. These result from the absence of synchronicity among the regimes that characterize univariate REIT, stock and bond returns.     

The Dynamics of REIT Pricing Efficiency

We study the dynamics of pricing efficiency in the equity REIT market from 1993 to 2014. We measure pricing efficiency at the firm level using variance ratios calculated from quote midpoints in the TAQ database. We find four main results. First, on average, the market is efficient, with variance ratios close to one. However, in any given year, there is considerable cross‐sectional variation in variance ratios, suggesting at least some firms are priced inefficiently. Second, higher institutional ownership by active institutional investors is related to better pricing efficiency, while passive ownership does not reduce pricing efficiency. Third, REITs that are included in the S&P 500 and S&P 400 are priced more efficiently than other REITs. For the S&P 500 firms, we find evidence that this was purely driven by sample selection, while for S&P 400 firms, we find evidence that it is inclusion in the index that drives efficiency. Finally, we find evidence that firm investment, analyst coverage and debt capital raising activity can influence pricing efficiency.     

The Long-Run Performance of REIT Stock Repurchases

This study investigates the long-horizon performance of open-market stock repurchases for real estate investment trusts (REITs). We develop a new methodology to model the autocorrelation of monthly returns into long-horizon buy-and-hold abnormal return estimators. Serial correlation can introduce bias (autocorrelation bias) because the bid-ask bounce may affect monthly returns for sample firms and non-sample firms in a different fashion. Previous long-horizon event studies have overlooked this source of bias. There is compelling evidence that the market underreacts to the stock repurchase announcements. The evidence holds for different measures of the variance and the effects of cross-correlation of abnormal returns. Results are also robust to the traditional buy-and-hold abnormal return and the wealth relative estimators. We investigate the nature of the underreaction and find strong support for the undervaluation hypothesis.     

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

The impact of stock market index membership on Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns is unclear. Returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns. However, index membership also enhances the link between REIT returns and the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency.     

Corporate Governance and Performance: The REIT Effect

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) offer a natural experiment in corporate governance due to the fact that they leave little free cash flow for management, which reduces agency problems. We exploit a unique and leading corporate governance database to test whether corporate governance matters for the performance of U.S. REITs. We document for a sample including governance ratings of more than 220 REITs that firm value is significantly related to firm-level governance for REITs with low payout ratios only. Repeating the analysis with the complete database that includes more than 5,000 companies and a control sample of firms with high corporate real estate ratios, we find a strong and significantly positive relation between our governance index and several performance variables, indicating that the partial lack of a relation between governance and performance in the real estate sector might be explained by a REIT effect.     

Expected Equity Returns on Real Estate Financed with Life Insurance Company Loans: 1967–1977

This paper estimates the internal rate of return on eleven real property types for the period 1967–1977 using a national sample of over 39 billion dollars worth of real property. Returns are calculated four ways—1) before tax, before financing. 2) before tax, after financing, 3) after tax, before financing, and 4) after tax, after financing. Comparisons are then made to determine the effects of taxes and financing on the returns. Finally, the results are compared to an earlier study for the period 1954–1966 to determine the changes of the various factors over time.     

Focus, Transparency and Value: The REIT Evidence

We trace the effects of corporate focus by examining the relationships among focus, cash flows and firm value. In contrast to past studies that examine the effects of diversifying across SIC-code-defined industries, we show that diversification, even within a single industry, reduces value. Our evidence, drawn from a panel of real estate investment trusts, indicates that this reduction is not due to poor managerial performance. Project-level cash flows are actually higher for less focused firms. However, these gains are offset by higher management, administrative and interest expenses. Thus, the corporate cash flows available to shareholders are not related to focus. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that links the effect of focus on value to informational asymmetries which cause the equity of diversified firms to be less liquid. We attribute some of the effect of focus on the cost of both debt and equity to informational asymmetries or transparency costs.     

The Role of the Underlying Real Asset Market in REIT IPOs

A leading explanation for IPO cycles is time-varying supply and demand for the underlying assets of the firms that are considering going public. We test this hypothesis using REIT IPOs, taking advantage of the relative transparency of the underlying real asset markets. We document links between REIT IPO activity and both the conditions of the underlying real estate market and the price of REITs. We find no significant relation between the heat of the IPO market and post-IPO operating performance, implying homogeneous firm quality across IPO cycles. Finally, we show that lagged IPO proceeds are related to future increases in investment and in capacity utilization.     

An Examination of REIT Dividend Payout Policy

This paper proposes a new methodology for decomposing real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends into discretionary and nondiscretionary components. By examining the tax characteristics of dividends, I am able to accurately measure the discretionary component of a REIT's dividend. This methodology provides new insights into our understanding of REIT dividend payout policy. Unlike previous studies that find limited explanations for discretionary dividend payouts, I find a systematic explanation. Discretionary dividends tend to be large on average making up between 18% and 35% of a REIT's total dividend and display considerable variation through time and across firms. The main determinant of these discretionary dividends appears to be dividend smoothing. There is an inverse relationship between discretionary and nondiscretionary dividends. Even if a REIT has excess cash flow it could distribute in discretionary dividends, it will tend not to do so if it has a high dividend payout due to its nondiscretionary dividends. In this sense, REITs appear to use discretionary dividends to smooth their payout ratios.     

An Analysis of REIT CEO Stock-Based Compensation

Academic research findings on the determinants of executive compensation are mixed. Some researchers attribute this to the inclusion of stock-based compensation in the more recent studies. We study the determinants of stock-based compensation schemes in the REIT industry for the period 1997–2000. While previous research analyzes REIT CEOs' cash-based compensation, we concentrate on option compensation structures. Using the Tobit method, we study both the level of option awards and the mix of option awards to total compensation. We find that REIT CEOs receive larger option awards when they increase growth opportunities, funds from operation, earnings per share and when there is greater variability of returns. Thus, our results validate most of the theories on stock-based compensation.     

An Analysis of REIT Security Issuance Decisions

This article tests the ability of traditional capital structure theories to explain the issuance decisions of real estate investment trusts (REITs). For issuances made between 1997 and 2006, we find strong support for the market timing theory of capital structure. Controlling for past returns and growth, a REIT is more likely to issue equity when its price-to–net asset value ratio is high. This suggests that REITs issue equity in public markets when the cost of equity capital is lower in the public market than in the private market. Consistent with traditional market timing, REITs are more likely to issue equity after experiencing large price increases. We also find some support for REITs following the trade-off theory of capital structure. REITs are less likely to issue debt when proxies for expected bankruptcy costs are high.     

Asset Location,Timing Ability and the Cross‐Section of Commercial Real Estate Returns

This study examines the sensitivity of equity REIT returns to time‐varying MSA allocations of REIT property portfolios. Using a large sample of individual commercial property holdings, we find significant cross‐sectional and time variation in REIT geographic exposures and the ability of these exposures to explain the cross‐section of REIT returns. We further find evidence consistent with REIT managers being able, on average, to time allocation decisions ahead of MSA outperformance. This effect is most prevalent in non‐gateway markets, varies significantly across MSAs and over time, and is concentrated in financially flexible firms with a more diversified geographic portfolio.     

The Information Content of REIT Short Interest: Investment Focus and Heterogeneous Beliefs

This article examines real estate investment trusts (REITs) to determine the correspondence between short interest and subsequent prices. The theoretical basis for our tests comes from the overvaluation conditions created by a combination of costly short selling and heterogeneous beliefs. This article exploits the unique characteristics of REITS as they are similar with respect to high dividend payouts and differentiated by underlying real asset investments. An innovative aspect of the methodology involves partitioning firms based on investment focus as a proxy for transparency and as a determinant of heterogeneous beliefs regarding valuation. The findings (i) affirm the information content of REIT short interest and (ii) highlight the importance of investment focus in resolving the divergence in investor opinions of value. Overvaluation conditions exist among REITs with greater short interest and less transparency, whereas such valuation conditions do not appear among transparent REITs, regardless of the level of short selling.