New product success factors: A comparison of 'kills' versus successes and failures

The paper reports an analysis of the characteristics of those new projects that are killed, that is, terminated before commercialisation. Such projects constitute the majority of new product projects. The authors' aim was to learn from the differences between 'kills' and those that are commercialised. The latter may, of course, turn out to be successes or failures.
Their sample consisted of 250 new projects of which 123 were ultimately successful, 80 failed and 47 were kills. Two hypotheses were tested: that kills and failures had similar characteristics and that kills differed from successes in the way that failures differed from successes. Four groups of multidimensional project characteristics were measured: product advantage, market attractiveness, competitive situation, and synergy/familiarity.
The results showed that neither hypothesis was generally supported, The patterns of characteristics observed were complex but were unravelled through a computer model simulating how managers perform the evaluation process. It showed that the results could be explained on the basis that errors could be made in evaluation. For example, it is difficult to evaluate product advantage. Surprisingly, competitive situation is not a discriminator between successes, failures and kills but managers treat it as if it were. Some characteristics are perceived by managers to be negative although they are, in fact, favourable to project success.
The authors claim that these results should lead to better allocation of R&D resources among proposed projects.     

Innovation: A data-driven approach

A newly introduced product or service becomes an innovation after it has been proven in the market. No one likes the fact that market failures of products and services are much more common than commercial successes. A data-driven approach to innovation is proposed. It is a natural extension of the system of customer requirements in terms of their number and type and the ways of collecting and processing them. The ideas introduced in this paper are applicable to the evaluation of the innovativeness of planned introductions of design changes and design of new products and services. In fact, blends of products and services could be the most promising way of bringing innovations to the market. The most important toll gates of innovation are the generation of new ideas and their evaluation. People have limited ability to generate and evaluate a large number of potential innovation alternatives. The proposed approach is intended to evaluate many alternatives from a market perspective.     

the evaluation of innovation projects

Abstract . Any realistic assessment of research projects must allow for possible failures. Scaling down the Potential gain from each project by its probability of achievement ignores the expenditure on unsuccessful projects and is therefore misleading. The method proposed here is more sound: it uses a concept termed the Survival Probability Function, which is simply the probability that a Project will still exist at various times in the future. This function can be derived from estimates for the survival factors and durations of project stages. The function can then be used to calculate the statistics of project successes and failures, and can be employed in a standard Risk Analysis. More simply, if can be used as a weighting function for cash flow patterns. This leads to a comparison method for projects with different risks and different potential returns, and thus to project portfolio selection.     

Rationality,foolishness, and adaptive intelligence

Technologies of model‐based rationality are the core technologies of strategic management, having largely replaced earlier technologies that placed greater reliance on traditional practice or on communication either with the stars or with the gods. The technologies used by organizations in their pursuit of intelligence can be imagined to change over time as a result of responding to the successes and failures associated with the technologies. Although technologies of rationality seem clearly to be effective instruments of exploitation in relatively simple situations and to derive their adaptive advantage from those capabilities, their ventures in more complex explorations seem often to lead to huge mistakes and thus unlikely to be sustained by adaptive processes. Whether their survival as instruments of exploratory novelty in complex situations is desirable is a difficult question to answer, but it seems likely that any such survival may require hitchhiking on their successes in simpler worlds. Survival may also be served by the heroism of fools and the blindness of true believers. Their imperviousness to feedback is both the despair of adaptive intelligence and, conceivably, its salvation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

US telecommunications policy in the executive branch: The OTP and reorganisational alternatives

The author presents a critical assessment of the requirements of the government in telecommunications. He analyses the successes and failures of the Office of Telecommunications Policy, examines its relationships with other federal agencies, and describes the tradeoffs implicit in several of the alternatives available to it. The author concludes with recommendations for restructuring telecommunications policy in the new administration.     

Richard Hyman: Marxism,Trade Unionism and Comparative Employment Relations

Richard Hyman has been a hugely influential figure in the field of industrial relations for the best part of four decades. At a time when the future of the very subject has been questioned, we highlight three areas of Hyman's work that we believe provide fertile territory for future research. The first concerns the importance of theory and the continuing need to broaden the subject of industrial relations so that it is treated as an area in which we can examine wider questions about ‘the political economy of waged labour’. The second area is the changing nature of employee representation which, for much of Hyman's career, was synonymous with the analysis of trade unions under capitalism. The third area is one of the more striking recent successes within the subject, namely the study of comparative industrial relations. Each of these areas reveals Hyman's talent for identifying and clarifying a set of issues around the politics of work that will endure regardless of whether the subject is known as industrial relations, employment relations or human resource management.     

New Products: What Separates Winners from Losers?

There is no issue more fundamental to new products managers than understanding the factors that separate success from failure. In this article, Robert Cooper and Elko Kleinschmidt present a series of ten hypotheses which they test using data obtained from their study of 203 new products. Significantly, these products include both commercial successes and failures, since previous studies have concentrated on either one or the other. The authors conclude that product superiority is the number one factor influencing commercial success and that project definition and early, predevelopment activities are the most critical steps in the new products development process. Success, they argue, is earned. It is not the ad hoc result of situational or environmental influences. Synergy, both marketing and technical, is crucial.     

What makes a new product a winner: * Success factors at the project level.*

The research seeks to identify different types or dimensions of new product success and the specific determinants of these different success types. Based on a sample of 125 companies, including 123 new product successes and 80 failures, three independent dimensions of success were found: financial performance, opportunity windows and market share. The determinants of success differ for the three performance dimensions. Managerial implications are discussed.     

信用伦理视角下的职业经理人问题研究——基于新疆职业经理人的问卷调查

自20世纪90年代以来,我国经济迅猛发展,取得了令人瞩目的成就。尤其是职业经理人的引入及其队伍的不断壮大,更令其锦上添花。但随其快速发展的同时信用危机等道德缺失问题层出不穷。文章作者通过问卷调查分析总结出当前影响职业经理人发展的因素,并从信用伦理的视角切入,着眼于对信用理念内在德性自律引导的挖掘,又致力于信用的外在制度安排和他律强制性规则的建设,从而将自律与他律结合共建社会道德共同体：     

Identifying industrial new product success: Project NewProd

What is the key to success in industrial product innovation? This question is frequently posed, and many authors and managers have speculated as to which critical factors or variables decide the fate of new industrial products. What is missing in the debate is evidence based on actual new product successes and failures. Project NewProd is an investigation that was designed to fill this void. In this article we report the results of a study into a large number of successful and unsuccessful new products, project NewProd, whose goal was to identify the determinants of commercial success in industrial product innovation.     

The Role of Market Information in New Product Success/Failure

Although no single variable holds the key to new product performance, many of the widely recognized success factors share a common thread: the processing of market information. Understanding customer wants and needs ultimately comes down to a company's capabilities for gathering and using market information. And another well-acknowledged success factor the integration of marketing, R&D, and manufacturing focuses on the sharing of information. In other words, a firm's effectiveness in market information processing—the gathering, sharing, and use of market information—plays a pivotal role in determining the success or failure of its new products. Brian D. Ottum and William L. Moore describe the results of a study that examines the relationship between market information processing and new product success. They also explore the organizational factors that facilitate successful processing of market information, and thus offer ideas for better managing the development of new products. The respondents—marketing, R&D, and manufacturing managers from Utah-based computer and medical device manufacturers—provided information about 58 new products, including equal numbers of successes and failures. The survey responses reveal strong relationships between product success and market information processing, with success most closely linked to information use. In other words, the gathering and sharing of information are important, but only if the information is used effectively. In 80 percent of the product successes studied, the respondents ultimately possessed and used a greater than average amount of market information. And in 75 percent of the failures, the respondents knew less than average about the market at project inception, and gathered or used less than the average amount of market information during the project. For the projects in this study, the integration of marketing, R&D, and manufacturing contributed not only to the sharing and use of information, but also to overall project success. However, the results of the study suggest that the way in which a project is organized plays only an indirect role in determining new product success—most likely by improving the processing of market information. From a managerial perspective, the most important variables identified in the study are market information shared, market information used, and financial success.     

A Causal Model of the Impact of Skills, Synergy, and Design Sensitivity on New Product Performance

Notwithstanding the best efforts of outstanding managers, project team members, researchers, and consultants, no product development plan can guarantee success. Every new products organization will experience its fair share of failures, but a firm can take steps to ensure that its failures do not outweigh its successes. By benchmarking the competition, a firm can gain insight into best practices–the factors that lead most directly to new product success. To help identify these best practices, X. Michael Song, William E. Souder, and Barbara Dyer develop and test a causal model of the relationships among the key variables leading to new product performance. The proposed model identifies five factors that lead to marketing and technical proficiency: process skills, project management skills, alignment of skills with needs, team skills, and design sensitivity. According to the model, marketing and technical proficiency directly determine product quality, and ultimately lead to new product success or failure. The causal model was tested using information on 65 completed projects–34 successes and 31 failures–from 17 large, multi-divisional Japanese firms. The study participants develop, manufacture, and market high-technology consumer and industrial products. These firms judged the success or failure of the projects in this study by using seven criteria: return on investment, profit, market share, sales, opportunities for technical leadership, market dominance, and customer satisfaction. These firms generally assigned the greatest importance to customer satisfaction, opportunity creation, and long-term growth. For the most part, the responses from these firms support the relationships presented in the causal model. According to the respondents, marketing proficiency and product quality have a strong, positive influence on their new product performance, as do process skills, project management skills, and alignment of skills and needs. The responses highlight the importance to these firms of responsiveness to customer wants and needs, as well as ensuring a close fit between project needs and the firm's skills in marketing, R&D, engineering, and manufacturing. Somewhat surprisingly, the responses do not support the model's suggested relationships between skills/needs alignment and technical proficiency or between technical proficiency and product quality.     

Identifying New Product Successes in China

To examine the generalizability of the work of Cooper regarding the correlates of new product success and failure, Mark Parry and Michael Song surveyed new product development managers at 129 state-owned enterprises in the People's Republic of China. Their analysis of 258 reported product successes and failures indicated that relative product advantage and the acquisition of marketing information were highly correlated with new product success, just as in Canada. In addition, several factors not significantly correlated with success in Canadian firms emerged as significant correlates of success in the PRC. These included the level of competitive activity, the timing of the product launch, and the level of proficiency in executing activities in the early stages of the product development process.     

A Dutch test with the NewProd-Model

The paper contains a report of a test of Cooper's NewProd model for predicting success and failure of product development projects. Based on Canadian data, the model has been shown to make predictions which are 84% correct. Having reservations on the reliability and validity of the model on theoretical grounds, we set out to test it using data collected in the Netherlands.
Following Cooper's methodology, we selected 19 projects, which had already been marketed and of which 9 were clearcut successes and 10 clearcut failures. We also studied 9 additional projects, which had not yet been commercialised, as the basis for a future a priori test. The projects were given a product score according to Cooper's criteria, and predictions compared with the actual experience. Eightyfour percent were correctly classified, as in Cooper's work. From a practical point of view however the variance was too large to allow the predictions from NewProd to be used with confidence to predict outcomes unless they are clearcut.
We believe that the drawback of the methodology is that the product score is a simple combination of the various factors involved. No allowance is made for the possibility that one factor alone might be responsible for failure. We have therefore introduced the concept of a threshold value for each factor. A project for which any factor falls below this value will be deemed a failure. Based on a very limited sample of 19 cases an improvement of reliability was made to 95% of 18 out of 19 products correctly classified. The NewProd concept so modified is being applied to the sample of 9 as yet uncompleted projects, and its predictions will eventually be compared with actual outcomes.     

Case history studies in ICI Agricultural Division Research and Development Department 1968–1975

During the period 1968–1972 several projects which were initiated in Agricultural Division Research & Development Department were studied in some depth, the main objective being to try to establish the reasons for the successes and the failures. A set of six precepts (AGCAST criteria) likely to lead to success was derived from these studies. These precepts were then combined with six precepts resulting from the SAPPHO study of industrial innovation. From 1973 onwards the twelve precepts were applied; firstly to studies of finished projects, with a saving in the effort required, secondly to two ‘live’ projects which were examined so as to make suggestions for improving the management of these projects. Unfortunately, both projects were abandoned before the suggestions could be applied. Use has also been made of case studies and the AGCAST/ SAPPHO list in the design of an internal course for project managers. This is arguably the most valuable application of these studies.     

Reliability performance of fault-tolerant digital control systems

This paper presents the results of a generic reliability analysis of fault-tolerant digital control systems (F-T DCS). This analysis differs from previous efforts at estimating the reliability performance of F-T DCS in the sense that this analysis relies extensively on actual experience with redundant computer systems rather than on theoretical evaluations. The dominant contributors to the frequency of failure of F-T DCS are (1) failures within common or shared equipment, (2) software failures, and (3) inadvertent operator actions. Other contributors include loss of electric power, spurious signals that originate from within the DCS, lack of coverage, common cause failure (CCF) of redundant hardware, CCF of instrument channels, and physical damage from externally initiated events (e.g., high temperature). Much variation is expected in the reliability performance of F-T DCSs. Although some systems may operate for 10 or 15 years without experiencing system failures, other systems may fail several times during the same time interval. This variation is expected among systems of different architectures as well as among systems of the same architecture. Because most failures of DCSs can be traced to some kind of CCF, particularly software failures and inadvertent operator actions, CCFs should probably receive more attention than they are presently given when selecting an F-T DCS.     

Matching Learning Style Preferences with Suitable Delivery Methods on Textile Design Programmes

Textile design is a subject that encompasses both design and technology; aesthetically pleasing patterns and forms must be set within technical parameters to create successful fabrics. When considering education methods in design programmes, identifying the most relevant learning approach is key to creating future successes. Yet are the most suitable teaching methods being utilised? This paper discusses the learning styles of textile and fashion design students at The University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University and identifies their overall learning style biases. It then goes on to compare these two institutional approaches and examines whether the teaching methods used suitably match student learning biases.     

Network-centric digital development in Korea: Origins,growth and prospects

South Korea is currently the world leader in digital network infrastructure and the leading example of ICT-driven development. However, the explanation of how and why Korea accomplished these things is not clearly apparent from a review of mainstream scholarship. A deeper understanding of Korea’s “miracle on the Han” requires more historical, cultural, political and social context. This study addresses questions of how, when and why a nation whose infrastructures were utterly destroyed at the 1953 cessation of hostilities in the Korean War could emerge as the world’s digital network leader. It examines policy issues bearing on digitization of networks, network architecture and network technologies, along with broader context in which these policies were considered, drafted and implemented. Chronologically, the study explains the origins of digital development in the revolutionary decade of the 1980s, Korea’s rise to world broadband leader in the 1990s and its ambitious plans for next generation networks. The study concludes with a review of policy “lessons”, including both successes and failures, that may be drawn from the Korean experience.     

A contextual theory of organizational learning from failures and successes: A study of acquisition completion in the global newspaper industry, 1981–2008

This study develops and tests theory about the context‐specificity and outcome‐dependence of experiential learning in acquisition processes. First, we investigate whether learning from experience gained in different acquisition contexts is limited to influencing subsequent outcomes of same‐context transactions. Second, we analyze whether learning patterns in response to prior successes and failures differ across acquisition contexts, depending on two properties of these contexts—the degree of structural variance and the level of stimulation of deliberate learning. Learning is assessed with respect to an underexplored organizational goal variable in acquisitions: completion of a publicly announced transaction. An analysis of 4,973 acquisition attempts in the newspaper industry in 1981–2008 largely supports our theory. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

组织间创新性合作:基于知识边界的研究

组织间合作创新的本质是组织共同创造知识的活动，知识边界则从本质上反映着组织间关系与互动。于是，本文从知识边界的角度来研究组织间创新性合作．通过分析边界的三个维度，揭示出知识边界复杂性的显著增加诱发了机会主义行为．并降低了知识转移与创造的效率。进而，本文提出了摆脱困境的应对办法，包括建立知识的共同产权，发展共同语言，对边界人员充分授权以及管理者角色的转换。本文是“从企业到共同体”组织变革研究中的一次基础性探索．