开征物业税对房地产巿场的影响——基于省际面板数据的分析

从理论方面分析开征物业税对房地产市场的影响可以看出,物业税对房地产市场的短期影响是降低房价,而长期影响则不显著;实证方面,以1999~2008年我国30个省份的面板数据为样本,对商品房价格与拟开征物业税之间的相关关系做进一步研究的结果表明,房地产市场价格与物业税之间存在负相关关系,且开征物业税对不同地区房地产价格的影响存在差异。因此,与现行房地产税相比,物业税的开征会对房价起到更明显的抑制作用,可以缓解房地产市场过热,抑制房地产市场泡沫,有利于实现房地产市场的良性运作。     

物业税影响房地产价格的理论与实证分析——兼对沪渝房产税改革的比较分析

一直以来,人们对于物业税能否降低房价存在较大争议。理论上物业税影响房地产价格的主要路径是需求、供给、市场预期等,其中通过影响投资性需求而影响房地产价格是最主要的,因为物业税可促进房价与投资性需求螺旋式下降的形成,并且金融杠杆的存在加速了这一现象。实证方面,通过对沪渝两市房产税改革的比较分析,证实了物业税确实对房价产生了抑制作用。不过,物业税的覆盖面及可操作性对其效果有直接影响。     

关于物业税几个问题的思考

物业税是财产税的一种,是我国房地产税费改革的方向。就物业税的几个热点问题作了探讨,具体内容包括物业税的范畴、物业税开征必须解决的几个问题、物业税对房价的影响以及物业税的基本框架。     

区域科技创新、产业结构与房价 ——基于30个省直辖市面板数据的实证检验

依据2004-2017年我国30个省直辖市的面板数据,运用动态面板模型,考量区域科技创新、产业结构对房价的影响。结果表明:科技创新能力提升和产业结构优化均能对房价产生正向效应,但影响程度与区域经济发展水平有关,东部发达地区科技创新能力更高,产业优化较好,为房价的稳定提供了长期支撑,但这一影响在中西部地区显著性有所降低。     

人口老龄化与房价的区域差异研究——基于面板协整模型的实证分析

本文通过结构性视角,由面板协整检验证明了人口老龄化对房价波动存在长期影响,继以面板误差修正模型讨论了人口结构影响房价波动的区域差别、原因及政策建议。实证结果显示:储蓄、住房需求多元化和家庭结构是造成老年人群推动房价上涨的主要原因,但未来人口老龄化能否引起房价的长期下降,取决于青年人群对住房需求的实现能力;人口老龄化对房价的影响存在区域差异,预示着部分区域房价或已脱离实际面、青年人群的购买力与高房价间矛盾日蹙。从减缓人口老龄化对我国房地产乃至社会经济发展可能带来冲击的角度来看,应及早以前瞻性政策应对。     

试论开征物业税对我国房地产市场的影响

当前房价居高不下,开征物业税势在必行。但是,当前推行物业税将面临着地方政府的各方阻力和政策,技术和征管等多方面的难题。本文通过对房地产市场的分析和物业税开征可行性和难点剖析,就物业税对房地产市场的影响进行探讨。     

物业税脚步临近——专访著名税务专家刘桓教授

近期炒得沸沸扬扬的物业税开征问题吸引了众多眼球,很多人没有搞清物业税和物业费是什么关系,还有人把物业税和房产税混为一谈。更多对这个税种了解的人则是担心物业税推出的时机——在房价上涨到如此高位推出。到底会成为遏制房价的杀手锏。还是成为房价上涨的助推器？     

土地出让收入、地方财政支出对我国房价影响的区域差异性研究

利用2002～2011年30个省市面板数据分析土地出让收入、地方财政支出对我国房价影响的区域差异性。研究结果表明,东中西部三个区域的土地出让收入与地方财政支出对房价的影响均存在不同程度的时滞效应;短期内土地出让收入与地方财政支出对房价的作用效果并无显著的区域差异性,但就长期发展趋势来看,东部与西部地区仍以地方财政支出影响为主,而中部地区的情况却出现了逆转,土地出让收入对房价的刺激作用要显著大于财政支出。     

房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长

运用联立方程模型、面板分析技术及省际面板数据研究发现,我国房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长之间具有紧密的联系.分区域的实证研究结果显示:各地区房价的上涨与金融支持有关,过度的金融支持使东中部地区的房价偏离了经济基本面;中西部地区房价的上涨对银行信贷的扩张有显著影响,而经济增长是各地区促进银行信贷扩张的共同因素.此外,房价的上涨与银行信贷的扩张共同促进了我国各区域经济的繁荣.     

对我国物业税开征的几点思考

目前,由于我国房地产泡沫凸显,被赋予打击炒房、平抑房价利器的物业税,在中央政府提出遏制房价过快上涨之时,又一次被推到了舆论的风口浪尖之上,应否及何时开征物业已成为时下的热点问题。本文拟从开征物业税的作用和意义、面临的问题、对我国开征物业税的展望三个方面对我国开征物业税的利弊提出一些看法和意见。     

区域性系统性金融风险影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据的实证分析

依据中国大陆31个省(市)级行政区2013年1季度至2015年3季度的面板数据,构建单因素、多因素、交互效应的区域性系统性金融风险面板固定效应模型,考量区域性系统性金融风险的影响因素,结果表明：区域性系统性金融风险具有滞后性,生产者价格指数对其影响最大,且对生产者价格指数的敏感度最高,金融市场预期对金融结构具有调节作用。     

Excessive Financial Support,Real Estate Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

Using monthly panel data for China’s 30 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this article analyzes how level of financial support affects the interplay between real estate development and macroeconomic growth. Based on a threshold model, the results suggest that housing price increases substantially impede economic growth, but there is no significant threshold effect for the sample as a whole. On investigating regional cross-sectional variations, we found that local economic situation clearly impacts on this effect, with significant threshold effects detected in subsamples. While housing price may have positive influences on economic growth in the mid-west subgroup with appropriate financial support, more developed regions returned contrary results.     

地方官员更替、企业辖区知名度与股价同步性

以2009～2013年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证分析地方官员更替、辖区企业知名度与股价同步性的关系,结果表明:地市级政府官员变更所带来的政治不确定性会显著降低辖区企业的股价同步性,并且相对于新任官员来源于本地而言,新任官员来源于异地更能够显著地降低辖区内企业的股价同步性.进一步研究还发现,当地市级政府官员发生变更时,相对于辖区知名度较高的企业而言,辖区知名度较低的企业会披露更多的企业私有信息以应对政治不确定性风险,从而其股价同步性有了更大程度的降低.研究的结论证实了政治不确定风险的增加能够显著降低辖区内企业的股价同步性,客观上有助于提高股价的信息含量.     

International Diversification Strategies for Direct Real Estate

This paper will disentangle the performance of international real estate into property type performance and region selection. This helps to create an international diversification strategy for direct real estate. We use constrained cross-section regression with dummy variables for regions and property types to measure the best risk reducer. We analyze the impact of currency changes on total returns by looking at a hedged and un-hedged portfolio, both stock and equally weighted. The findings show that geographic factors have the largest influence on the volatility of international real estate returns. The average variance of the regional effects is higher than the property type effects and therefore the regional effects have a higher influence on the variation of the total portfolio. However, the regional effects are less stable through time, compared with the variance and correlation of the property type effects. Also the property type effect seems to become a more important factor for the return over time, especially when the return is expressed in local currency.     

中国货币政策传导变量的区域结构效应研究

本文基于2007-2019年的数据实证分析利率、信贷、汇率、股票市场和房地产市场等货币政策传导变量对中国八大综合经济区经济增长和物价的影响.研究发现,中国货币政策传导存在明显的区域非对称效应;银行信贷和利率渠道对各区域经济增长和物价影响的方向基本一致,影响幅度存在较大差异;汇率对各区域经济增长、物价影响的方向和幅度均存...     

甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响研究

本文在对甘肃省房地产价格波动及区域金融稳定概念进行界定的基础上,分析了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响机制,选取了甘肃省2002年至2011年的相关数据,构建了甘肃省区域金融稳定指标体系,并用熵值法计算出区域金融稳定综合指数,然后建立VAR模型,实证检验了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响.研究发现：在最优滞后2期内,房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定产生一定的影响,并且二者之间呈现负相关关系,也即房地产价格波动越大,区域金融稳定性就会降低,房地产价格波动越小区域金融稳定状况越好.     

Equity and fixed income markets as drivers of securitised real estate

This paper re-examines the sensitivity and importance of interest rates and stock market price behavior on securitised property by decomposing their long-run impact between transient and permanent effects. This is achieved in a framework that accounts for endogenously determined structural breaks within the data. The results provide a different perspective on the relationship securitised property has with these markets and sheds new light on their long-run interaction. Once structural breaks are accounted for the results show that securitised property is driven by both interest rate and stock market changes, regardless of the type of securitised property being examined. Evidence also points to companies with increased debt-to-asset ratios and companies that are tax-exempt entities are still all influenced by both the equity and fixed income markets over the long-run period, although the influence these factors have do vary across time.     

Model-free hedge ratios and scale-invariant models

A price process is scale-invariant if and only if the returns distribution is independent of the price measurement scale. We show that most stochastic processes used for pricing options on financial assets have this property and that many models not previously recognised as scale-invariant are indeed so. We also prove that price hedge ratios for a wide class of contingent claims under a wide class of pricing models are model-free. In particular, previous results on model-free price hedge ratios of vanilla options based on scale-invariant models are extended to any contingent claim with homogeneous pay-off, including complex, path-dependent options. However, model-free hedge ratios only have the minimum variance property in scale-invariant stochastic volatility models when price–volatility correlation is zero. In other stochastic volatility models and in scale-invariant local volatility models, model-free hedge ratios are not minimum variance ratios and our empirical results demonstrate that they are less efficient than minimum variance hedge ratios.     

Arbitrage Free Price Bounds for Property Derivatives

Market frictions inhibit the perfect replication of property derivatives, and define the property spread as a price measure in the incomplete real estate market. We identify transaction costs, transaction time, and short sale constraints as the main frictions in this market. Based on these frictions, we set up a framework of arbitrage free price bounds for property derivatives. In turn, we use observed derivative prices to determine the implied cost of the frictions. Lastly, we verify these values by using other research, which confirms the accuracy of our framework.