金融发展与产业结构调整关系的实证研究——以北京为例

在对金融发展与产业结构调整关系进行研究述评及理论和现状分析的基础上,运用北京市1978-2009年的年度数据。利用时间序列分析方法和回归分析方法对二者的关系进行实证分析。结果表明北京金融发展指标与产业结构调整指标相互间存在长期均衡关系,金融发展对第三产业产值的贡献度大于第二产业,对第二产业的贡献度又大于第一产业。为了促进北京金融发展与产业结构调整协调促进,需要继续完善金融体系建设,提高金融风险防范意识与机制建设;积极发展资本市场,着力拓宽融资渠道;倡导“绿色信贷”,优化信贷结构;并且继续调整优化产业结构,促进技术进步,积极转变经济发展方式。     

信贷投向与产业结构配套的灰关联分析

产业结构的优化升级有赖于银行信贷的支持。改革开放以后我国三次产业结构的调整步入银行主导时期,信贷资金的流向必然对各产业乃至各行业的发展产生重大影响。本文通过对信贷投向与产业发展的关系进行灰关联分析,观察信贷资金的流向是否与产业结构相配套,找出信贷支持产业发展过程中的问题并提出改进意见。     

产能过剩行业引发信贷危机分析

金融危机以来政府投资规模大幅增长,部分行业产能过剩情况明显,银行信贷存在风险。控制信贷风险,合理调整信贷结构及产业结构,实现贷款均衡合理增长,转变经济增长方式,是当前中国宏观经济面临的主要问题。本文对信贷危机的成因、体现和影响进行深入细致的分析。     

调整信贷结构为何步履维艰

“七五”期间,为了保证国家产业政策的正确贯彻落实,银行部门制定了与之相配套的优化信贷结构的相关政策,并且在具体业务操作上始终坚持“区别对待,择优限劣”的信贷原则。然而与国家产业结构调整一样,银行信贷结构调整亦步履艰难。原因何在呢? 一是受调整迟缓的产业结构的决定作用所影响。缺乏体制基础的金融杠杆很难对传统的产业结构产生突破性影响。在当前新旧体制转换时期,国家迫切需要立即收到实效的产业政策     

产业结构与城市化、区域经济的协调发展

在经济增长与区域经济发展中,产业结构调整与城市化始终是一个中心话题。事实上,产业结构的调整与城市化的发展并不是两道毫无关系的平行轨迹。在产业结构调整过程中,城市化推进对第一产业的优化作用,对第二产业的提升作用及对第三产业的带动作用十分明显,而产业结构的合理调整同样需要以城市为载体,以城市化为依托,并对城市化的发展起着积极促进作用     

论城市化与产业结构的互动关系

在经济增长与经济发展中 ,产业结构调整始终是一个中心话题 ,在城市经济与农村经济发展中 ,城市化也是一个论述的中心。事实上 ,产业结构的调整与城市化的发展并不是两道毫无关系的平行轨迹 :在产业结构调整过程中 ,城市化推进对第一产业的优化作用、对第二产业的提升作用及对第三产业的带动作用十分明显 ,而产业结构的合理调整同样需要以城市为载体 ,以城市化为依托 ,并对城市化的发展起着积极促进作用。     

基于偏离—份额法的城市旅游产业结构评价分析——以宁波市为例

文章基于宁波旅游业三大主体子产业2005~2011年营业收入和固定资产投入数据,采用偏离—份额法分析宁波旅游产业结构特征,结果表明宁波旅行社业获利和资产投入贡献度均最小,但具有获利增长优势;星级饭店业获利和资产投入贡献度均最大,但增长态势趋缓;旅游景区业获利方面具有一定优势,但资产投入贡献度不大。以上海、杭州旅游强市为参照,比较获得宁波旅游产业结构虽未达到最佳状态,但在逐步调整中;产业基础虽略为薄弱,但具有较好发展潜力。     

我国信贷规模对经济增长影响的定量分析——基于正规金融与非正规金融

我国是一个金融抑制的国家,信贷是我国金融市场的主要组成部分,是促进我国经济发展的重要因素。本文分析了银行信贷和非正规金融信贷两种方式对我国经济增长的作用。首先采用Chow分割点检验,研究了我国30年来银行信贷对经济贡献的阶段性差异;接着研究了GDP与银行信贷、GDP与非正规金融信贷的长期和短期均衡关系及格兰杰因果关系;并采用了非嵌套假设检验模型比较银行正规信贷和非正规金融对我经济增长影响的相对重要性。     

经济增长的区域差异:基于信贷投放的解释

银行信贷是经济增长的主要动力,本文采用我国31个省1978—2012年的数据,建立模型对东、中、西部三个地区银行信贷对经济增长作用进行分析,实证结果表明,2007年以后银行信贷对经济增长的影响大于2007年以前。本文实证还发现,不论在东部、中部还是西部,银行信贷与经济增长都具有正相关关系,但是银行信贷对经济增长的贡献水平在各地区之间存在差异,银行信贷对经济增长的贡献依中、东、西部顺序递减。建议采取差异性的货币政策、增加西部地区信贷规模等策略,以缩小区域经济发展差距、实现我国经济协调发展。     

内蒙古金融服务业发展对经济增长贡献的实证分析

本文从直接贡献、间接贡献两个方面分析了内蒙古金融服务业发展对经济增长的贡献度，并建立双对数模型实证分析了内蒙古GDP增长与银行信贷投入量和资本市场融资额的定量关系，得出信贷投入量与GDP增长高度相关，而股票市场筹资额对GDP影响并不显著且呈现负相关趋势的结论，最后提出相应的对策建议。     

A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?

Shifts in credit supply could have a bearing on house prices e.g. through financial innovations and changes in regulation independently of the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy. This paper assesses the responses of US house prices to an exogenous credit supply shock and compares them with the effects from variations in credit supply associated with a bank lending channel. The contribution of the study is twofold. First, innovations in credit supply are identified using a mortgage mix variable, thereby accounting for the market-based financial intermediaries. As a robustness check a survey variable of bank lending standards for mortgage loans is also used. Second, the policy-induced credit supply effect on house prices is disentangled and compared with the effect from an exogenous credit supply shock. It is shown that in the first 3 years credit supply shocks affect house prices exogenously rather than through the bank lending channel. Monetary policy has still a large impact on house prices, even when the bank lending channel is ‘turned off’.     

The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate

Using cross-country cross-industry data, this paper explores how industry’s growth in number of firms in Central-East Europe (CEE) region is influenced by bank concentration in both the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The CEE region shows highly concentrated banking markets and less-developed financial markets; thus, the level of bank concentration and the resulting credit supply are crucial for firm creation and survival. Despite this, there is little evidence on these countries in the literature. Our empirical results suggest an inverted-U relationship: industry growth is fostered by bank concentration, but there is a turning point from which higher concentration begins producing the opposite effect. Moreover, the positive impact has a greater intensity during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Between sectors’ analysis shows that high-tech sectors are less reactive to changes in the concentration level.     

我国银行信贷与房地产价格关系研究

文章对银行信贷与房地产价格之间的互动关系进行了完整的作用机制分析,并使用更细致和精确的数据建立VAR模型进行了实证研究。研究发现,银行信贷扩张与房地产价格上涨具有明显的相互推动和加强的作用。具体而言,房地产开发商贷款和个人购房贷款对房价都具有显著的正向影响,同时对来自房价冲击的响应也都是正向的。并且,在房价持续高速上升时期,房地产贷款规模对房价的影响力明显超过贷款利率。     

我国信用卡发卡银行定价行为特征及其效应分析

在扩大开放条件下,中国金融服务业的大门开始真正全方位向外资银行敞开.信用卡业务,作为快速提升银行盈利能力的新兴业务领域,必是中外资银行竞争的焦点.信用卡的服务定价问题,是信用卡产业发展的核心.本文在讨论我国信用卡发卡行定价行为特征的基础上,着重分析了信用卡年费竞争的不利影响,提出规范引导下的合作双赢才能够引导发卡行走出信用卡年费定价的恶性竞争.     

行业特征、负债来源与 企业投资支出关系研究——以批发零售和机械、设备、仪表制造业为例

本文以我国批发零售业和机械、设备、仪表制造业上市公司为研究对象,考察负债及负债来源对企业投资支出的影响。实证结果表明,两个行业都不存在过度投资行为,但负债比例越高,企业投资支出越少,负债对企业投资支出的抑制作用明显;债务来源方面,机械、设备、仪表制造业商业信用对投资支出的抑制作用强于银行借款;批发零售业银行借款对投资支出的抑制作用强于商业信用。     

产能治理与企业债务结构再平衡—基于商业信用与银行信贷关系视角

我国上市制造业企业的商业信用与银行信贷关系存在长期互补特征,但信号理论对互补强度的演变过程缺乏有效的解释力.为探索信号理论之外的互补机制,反思企业债务结构的信贷偏移效应,文章提出了产能驱动假说,利用面板门限模型,得到了以下结论:(1)商业信用与银行信贷会随产能增长而呈现从"替代"到"互补"的演变特征,且互补强度(单位商业信用上升伴随的信贷上升)会随产能膨胀出现从"弱"到"强"的二次突变特征,即产能扭曲会使企业债务结构快速向银行信贷偏移,这为理解企业信贷依赖的形成路径提供了产能层面的微观解释.(2)企业债务结构再平衡能力具有异质性,高研发投资及低调整成本企业借助产能治理来修正信贷依赖的能力更强,因此降低调整成本、扶植企业创新应成为优化融资结构的重要政策路径.文章在信号理论之外提出了产能驱动假说,解释了我国企业债务结构扭曲的动态特征,并从技术创新与调整成本视角为推动企业实现债务结构再平衡提供了政策参考.     

Revisiting the Effects of Remittances on Bank Credit: A Macro Perspective

We investigate the effect of remittances on bank credit in developing countries. Understanding this link is important in view of the growing relevance of remittances as a source of external finance and of the beneficial impact that financial intermediation is likely to have on economic growth. Our contribution is twofold. First, we present a theoretical model of bank credit in a hypothetical remittances‐receiving country where: (1) the banking sector is imperfectly competitive; and (2) bank rates change infrequently because of the presence of adjustment costs. We show that in equilibrium, the relationship between remittances and bank‐credit is likely to be non‐linear. Second, we look at the evidence using a panel data set for a large group of developing and emerging economies over the period 1970–2009. We find that at initially low levels of remittances, an increase in remittances reduces the volume of credit extended by banks. However, at sufficiently high levels of remittances, the effect becomes positive. The turning point of the relationship occurs at a level of remittances of about 2.5% of GDP, which would imply that approximately 50% of our sample lies to each side of this threshold.     

The bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy: The impact of the VLTROs on credit supply in Spain

We assess the impact on the credit supply to non-financial corporations of the two very long term refinancing operations (VLTROs) conducted by the Eurosystem in December 2011 and February 2012 for the case of Spain. To do so we use bank–firm level information from a sample of more than one million lending relationships during two years. Our methodology tackles three main identification challenges: (i) how to disentangle credit supply from demand; (ii) the non-random assignment of firms to banks; (iii) the endogeneity of the VLTRO bids, as banks with more deteriorated funding conditions were more likely both to ask for a large amount of funds and to restrain credit supply. Our findings suggest that the VLTROs had a positive moderate-sized effect on the supply of bank credit to firms. We also find that the effect was greater for illiquid banks and that it was driven by credit to SMEs, as there was no impact on loans to large firms. By contrast, strong firm–bank relationships were less sensitive to the positive liquidity shock caused by the VLTROs, which is consistent with the studies that find that relationship lending is a more stable source of credit than transaction lending. Finally, the VLTROs had no impact on either the degree of loan collateralisation or the probability of making loans to new borrowers, while they decreased the probability of renewing old ones, which suggests that those funds were not used for loan “evergreening”.     

企业与银行关系管理发展趋势研究

银行关系管理是对银行与公司双方合作关系的全面管理,涉及银行提供的和公司所需的全部信贷和非信贷服务.银行管理关系的主要内容包括服务价格审查、服务银行选择和银行关系审查.纵观银行关系的发展趋势,我国必将步入银行业的卖方市场,廉价信贷时代一去不返.对于企业而言,处理好与银行的关系将是一个战略问题.     

商业银行信贷风险控制要素研究

从银行信贷项目全面风险管理概念的内涵出发,构建了银行信贷项目风险控制要素的概念模型,并对银行信贷项目风险控制要素对银行信贷项目风险的影响进行了实证分析。得出如下结论：环境因素并不是银行信贷项目风险产生的主要原因,银行内部控制制度对信贷项目风险有显著影响。据此提出如下建议：中国银行业在金融风暴中应通过完善内部控制制度来加强传统信贷业务的风险管理,以保证银行业的长治久安。