“亚洲间贸易”论的理论述评及其现实意义

传统的贸易史学认为,19世纪中叶以后,日本及亚洲各国或地区由于资本主义经济的不发达,在世界经济体系中始终处于一种从属性的地位。但日本经济史学家杉原薰通过把亚洲作为一个整体对象进行研究,提出了在学术界具有相当影响力的“亚洲间贸易”论,指出在亚洲内部存在着独自的贸易结构,这一结构以“棉业基轴体制”为核心内容、由商人主导并通过亚洲型商品链的形成而展开。因此,这是一个从欧美获得了相对自主性、显示了其自身发展逻辑的区域内贸易。本文的目的是对“亚洲间贸易”论的理论内涵进行述评,并探讨该理论对当今中国的经济发展所具有的现实意义。     

亚洲的经济整合趋势及其未来

进入21世纪,以中国和印度为主要组成部分的新兴经济体的群体性崛起导致了世界格局变化与"亚洲世纪"的大讨论。亚洲的经济增长已经明显地由各国的独立增长向区域经济整合过渡。如果21世纪真的能够成为亚洲的世纪,那么这一目标的实现一定是建立在整个亚洲地区经济上不断整合、政治上不断信赖的基础之上。因此,持续地将亚洲经济整合的趋势发展下去,通过各种方式的努力,实现东亚、东南亚、南亚和西亚的区域性经济整合,这是亚洲各国最大的共同利益,也是亚洲崛起的关键。     

“亚洲溢价”的困境与对策研究

长期以来,基于政治、经济多方面因素的考虑,中东地区的部分石油输出国对出口到世界不同地区的相同原油采用不同的计价公式,造成亚洲地区的石油进口国要比欧美国家支付更高的石油进口价格,产生了"亚洲溢价"问题。为此,亚洲国家每年需要为此多支付近50亿美元。本文考察了这一现象,研究了"亚洲溢价"的产生原因及其影响,并在此基础上提出了亚洲共同应对这一难题的政策举措。     

"家园"何以成为方法?

近年来,"XX作为方法"一语频繁出现.其中的"XX"大抵是历史学和社会科学研究对象的区域,规模大到亚洲或中国,小到国内的地区,最近它甚至缩小到"自己"了."亚洲作为方法",由汪晖借自日本学者竹内好的叙述,用以还原一个超越国族疆界的、复合的认识主体地位(即"主体间性").①"中国作为方法"是日本著名学者沟口雄三提出的,②在国内学界受到关注,指作为历史"内发动力"的中国本土思想."XX地区作为方法",似与"华南派"历史人类学家有特殊关系,指其长期研究的岭南区域的突出特征及其理论价值.③"自己作为方法",则出自近期项飙、吴琦的对话录的书名,④这本书以项飙自己的学术人生为主线,牵出一连串对乡土、学界与世界的经验和看法.     

贸易成本、要素流动与区域经济差异

本世纪以来,中国交通基础设施不断优化、物流业的迅猛发展以及国内市场化的不断加深对中国区域间要素流动、产业转移及区域经济差异的影响,成为具有重要理论与现实意义的问题。本文通过构建包含贸易成本的两地区-两部门新经济地理模型来研究这一问题,并在合理的参数条件下进行数值模拟。研究发现贸易成本的降低阻碍了劳动力、资本与可贸易产业从发达地区向欠发达地区的流动和转移,加大了地区间经济差异,从而为"迁移谜题"提供了新的解释角度。根据理论研究的结果,本文提出相关的政策建议。     

比较优势和我国商品贸易结构的对应分析——兼与日本的比较

本文以RCA指数测度比较优势,同时将商品贸易结构区分为行业间贸易、垂直行业内贸易和水平行业内贸易,然后对这两个属性变量建立列联表并以此进行对应分析。结果显示,行业间贸易在我国表现出较强的比较优势,而水平和垂直行业内贸易在我国均不具有比较优势。但是,日本的情况则相反。所以,我们不能就此否定比较优势的演进对提升贸易结构所具有积极的意义。     

大国博弈下,上海合作组织走向何方

中俄的战略处境相似,双方全面战略协作伙伴关系不断得到深化。在上海合作组织内部,中俄印"三驾马车"短时期内不会是一个完全均衡的结构,中俄战略协作将在很长时期内扮演撬动上海合作组织发展的杠杆角色,而中俄印战略合作,将为这根杠杆提供一个牢固的支点。中国致力于弘扬"亚洲安全观"和"上海精神",增强亚洲国家的政治互信,促进多边安全合作。只要亚洲国家的经济、政治、安全、文化合作能达到较高程度并形成良性循环,中国的外部环境就将彻底得到改善,而美国的对华战略也将被迫做出实质性调整。     

能力结构与经济合作的关系模型研究——以东亚经济合作为例

基于贸易引力模型、相互依赖理论以及"支配-依附"理论,本文研究了能力结构与区域经济合作的关系模型,通过对中国地区能力结构的差异分析和东亚其它国家能力结构的评价,说明东亚经济合作是分层次的,中国参与有利于合作的稳定,日本的参与有利于合作效率的提高.     

基于改进D-S模型的产业间贸易、垂直投资一体化模型研究

本文通过在标准的Dixit-Stiglitz模型中引入基于Yang-Heijdra公式的全新解法,构建了全新的产业间贸易、垂直投资一体化模型.这一模型的理论贡献有二:一是在一般均衡理论框架内将垂直型国际直接投资成功地融合在"新贸易理论"框架内;二是采用基于Yang-Heijdra公式的全新解法对模型的两种均衡结构进行了一般均衡分析、边际和超边际比较静态分析,并得出了许多与传统解法不同的相关结论.     

雁行形态理论研究新进展

20世纪80年代末至90年代初,东亚以日本为首,亚洲“四小”、东盟四国、中国随后的“雁行形态”经济发展模式倍受中外学者关注,大量的研究从正面积极评价了这一创造出“东亚奇迹”的经济理论。但自1997年亚洲金融危机爆发、日本经济陷入长期萧条以及中国经济出现持续高速增长后,对“雁行形态”的重新探讨蔚然成风,褒贬不一。本文对该理论最新的研究动态做一综述,这对中国未来在区域经济一体化进程中的发展定位及国内产业竞争力的提高和结构升级都具有重要的现实意义。     

"9·11"后美国中亚政策及其影响

"9·11"后,美军进驻中亚使中亚地区的格局有了很大的转变.美国的中亚战略在"9*11"前后也进行了调整,而在其中亚战略指导下的中亚政策对中亚地区产生了复杂的影响.作为全球惟一的超级大国,美国在中亚地区事务中的影响力上升是一个事实,在未来的时间里,这一趋势会进一步加大.     

Modeling Financial Integration,Intra-EMU and Asian-US External Imbalances

Intra-EMU external imbalances in the pre-crisis period up to 2008 are traditionally explained by EMU-oriented factors, e.g. euro-related financial integration. Chen et al. (2013) also emphasize external trade shocks, such as the competitive challenge of emerging Asia and oil exporters to EMU-periphery’s exports. Moreover, Asian-U.S. external imbalances are attributed to financial integration between East Asia and the USA in the aftermath of the East-Asian currency crises in the late 1990s (Angeletos and Panoussi 2011). Acknowledging these empirical facts this paper develops a Buiter (1981) three-country (EMU, Asia, US), two-region (EMU core, EMU periphery) OLG model to investigate the effects of both intra-EMU and Asian-U.S. financial integration on intra-EMU, Asian and U.S. external imbalances. We find that the widening of the intra-EMU external imbalances, in particular of trade imbalances, is related to the growth in Asian-U.S. imbalances and the dynamic inefficiency of the world economy, caused by excessive saving in Asia.     

“阻隔式”与“引入式”经济增长方式

在世界范围内实现生产的专一化和分工的细化是一种必然趋势。由“阻隔式”向“引入式”经济增长方式转换是发展中国家利用发达国家现有的领先科技成果,融入发达国家间的分工协作体系和产业内贸易,实现本国经济高增长的现实选择。     

Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia

This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the nontradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.     

基于VAR模型的中欧贸易“J曲线效应”实证分析

欧元作为一种新兴世界货币既在全球经济中发挥日益重要的作用,也是人民币汇率形成机制中的重要权重货币,由于欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴,故欧元兑人民币实际汇率变动对中欧贸易平衡产生重要影响。本文采用1999—2008年间欧元兑人民币汇率数据和中国与欧元区贸易季度数据构建VAR模型,并运用单位根检验、协整检验和脉冲响应函数的分析方法对欧元汇率变动对中欧贸易相对差额的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,人民币兑欧元的贬值初期会引起中国对欧元区贸易收支的短期恶化,但经过一段时间后由于我国对欧元区出口数量增加,贸易盈余趋于稳定,中国对欧元区贸易存在汇率贬值的"J曲线效应"。     

"新区域主义"与多边贸易体制的冲突及协调

"新区域主义"蓬勃发展使WTO建立的多边贸易体制面临新的挑战.文章解析了"新区域主义"自20世纪90年代以来盛行的背景及原因,指出了其与多边贸易体制的冲突根源,厘清了多边贸易体制通过管理区域贸易协定以协调二者冲突的行事思路,并根据上述研究重新定位了"新区域主义"与多边贸易体制的相互关系.     

The impact of China’s WTO accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait

This paper evaluates the impact of China’s World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait and its implications for the rest of the world by a recursive dynamic, 17‐region, 25‐sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model according to actual market access commitments that China and Taiwan have made to date. The simulation results show that both China and Taiwan will substantially benefit from their WTO memberships, and their economic interdependence and their dependence within the rest of the world will further deepen. The rest of the world may also benefit because of the expansion of world trade and improvement of their international terms of trade, but some developing countries with an endowment structure similar to China, like those in South America and Southeast Asia, may experience keener competition in labour‐intensive exports and lower prices for their products. JEL classification: F1, F02, C68, P52.     

Adam Smith on colonies: An analytical and historical interpretation

It is our conclusion that Adam Smith advocated and justified policies of anticolonialism and antiprotectionism. Smith was opposed to the theory and policy of mercantilism, which involved an emphasis on the imperialistic exploitation of colonies as a method of accumulating the precious metals within the boundaries of mercantilistic nations. Smith led British public opinion into a period when little-Englandism replaced colonialism and free trade replaced protection. This period continued as long as the Industrial Revolution enabled England to dominate world trade. After 1875, however, the industrialization of the United States, Germany and Japan intensified the competitiveness of international trade and threatened to destroy British domination of world markets. These developments caused a resurgence of the new imperialism and motivated the British government to participate in the partition of Africa and to impose British hegomony over Asia. This new imperialism ran its bloody course of military aggression before it self-destructed at the end of the Second World War.     

Social responsibility,entrepreneurship, and the goals of firms: An examination of current economic literature

It is our conclusion that Adam Smith advocated and justified policies of anticolonialism and antiprotectionism. Smith was opposed to the theory and policy of mercantilism, which involved an emphasis on the imperialistic exploitation of colonies as a method of accumulating the precious metals within the boundaries of mercantilistic nations. Smith led British public opinion into a period when little-Englandism replaced colonialism and free trade replaced protection. This period continued as long as the Industrial Revolution enabled England to dominate world trade. After 1875, however, the industrialization of the United States, Germany and Japan intensified the competitiveness of international trade and threatened to destroy British domination of world markets. These developments caused a resurgence of the new imperialism and motivated the British government to participate in the partition of Africa and to impose British hegomony over Asia. This new imperialism ran its bloody course of military aggression before it self-destructed at the end of the Second World War.     

"MISSING WOMEN": REVISITING THE DEBATE

In a series of papers in the late 1980s, Amartya Sen claimed that about 100 million women were "missing," referring to the number of females who had died as a result of unequal access to resources in parts of the developing world. A subsequent debate has refined these estimates using different demographic techniques. In this paper, we review this debate, provide an update on the number of "missing women," and investigate the determinants of current trends in gender bias in mortality. We find that the number of "missing women" has increased in absolute terms, but fallen as a share of the number of women alive. There have been improvements for women's relative survival in most of South Asia and the Middle East, but deteriorations in China. Improving female education and employment opportunities has helped to reduce gender bias, while the increasing recourse to sex-selective abortions has worsened it.