A REVIEW OF THE CONCEPT OF THE “DUAL ECONOMY”*

The primary object of this paper is to present a methodological study which is concerned with how to clarify and evaluate the characteristics of that social and economic structure which is called “dual economy” in today's developing countries. It attempts a critical review of the concepts developed by J. H. Boeke, J. van Gelderen, J. S. Furnivall, H. Frankel, H. Myint, G. Myrdal and C. Geertz, among those who have taken the view of “social dualism.” It concludes that the concept of a dual economy should be perceived in terms of “colonial social dualism” as a system; and that it is solely from this point of view that the nature and direction of economic development in the context of economic nationalism in developing countries can adequately be explained.     

Forced commerce and agrarian growth

The paper explains why contractually interlocked agrarian markets differ from price—and quantity—adjustments under pressures of excess demand/supply in neoclassical general equilibrium analysis. Such contractual interlocking, arising (say) from the indebtedness of the peasants, gives rise to a contrived system of “forced commerce”. This commercial mode of exploitation not only exhibits unequal relations of economic power, but more important, it is also a mechanism for maintaining such unequal power structure, often at the cost of retarding agrarian growth. The paper thus emphasizes the need to understand the very notion of “market exchange” and “commerce” in backward agriculture from an unconventional viewpoint.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION/DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS AND INDONESIA

This study examines the industrialization performance of Indonesia through a comparative evaluation with other East Asian economies. While neighboring countries actively formulated international production/distribution networks, Indonesia fell behind in utilizing the benefits of globalizing corporate activities. International production/distribution networks are supported by new economic thought such as fragmentation, agglomeration, and theories about corporate firm; and a policy package of development strategies should be designed to utilize such opportunities. The design of Indonesia's development strategies and “institutions”, however, does not conform to the globalizing world because the presence of network‐forming foreign companies is not large enough to make them influential “actors”. This author argues that the traditional comparative advantage argument for Indonesia's economic development is possibly misleading. Rather, Indonesia must learn the experience of its neighboring countries and introduce foreign companies as new actors to break the old “structure”.     

Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods

Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve economic performance. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. We analyze the impact of flat tax reform on incomes using “synthetic control” methods. We identify the eight Eastern and Central European countries that adopted flat tax systems between 1994 and 2005, and then compare post‐reform GDP per capita of “treated” countries with a convex combination of similar but “untreated” countries, while accounting for the time‐varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. We find positive impacts in all eight countries, with seven out of eight cases significant at the conventional level.     

Science and technology indicators,country size and economic development: An international comparison

Conceptual and data problems make the selection of science and technology indicators difficult. It has also proven hard to link measures of scientific and technological activity with economic development. In this paper, statistically significant results are obtained in regressing two “input” indicators: stock of scientists and engineers, and expenditures in research and experimental development, with population size and income per capita. The models adjusted include non-linearities and are structurally different country groupings. Thus the practice of utilizing average coefficients, and of applying their values to both industrialized and developing countries, does not seem justified. The econometrically established pattern tends to corroborate prior knowledge about highly qualified human resource availability and expenditures in R & D, in “outlier” countries performing both above and below the “norm”.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

Economics as Theology: Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations

Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations may be read as a work of natural theology similar in general style to Newton's Principia. Smith's ambiguous use of the word “nature” and its cognates implies an intended distinction between a positive sense in which “natural” means “necessary” and a normative sense in which “natural” means “right.” The “interest” by which humans are motivated is “natural” in the first sense, but it may not bring about social outcomes that are “natural” in the second sense. It will do so only if the social institutions within which agents seek their own “interest” are well formed. Smith provides a large-scale, quasi-historical account of the way in which well-formed institutions gradually develop as unintended consequences of private “interest.” In so doing, he provides a theodicy of economic life that is cognate with St. Augustine's theodicy of the state as remedium peccatorum. “If a great book such as Smith's Wealth of Nations is read repeatedly, on even a fifth or a tenth reading one continues to learn new things. I doubt whether anyone will ever fully apprehend all the things that Smith wished to express, and there is even more to learn from an interesting mind than its owner wished to teach us.” George Stigler (1982, p. 108)     

A competitive growth of a small midle-income country in the eurozone is far to be assured

The dichotomy of the increasing diversity of eurozone member countries and the institutional “one-size-fits-all” setting has exposed the deficiencies of the institutional economic architecture of the eurozone in the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2010. It has particularly exposed the weaknesses of middle-income countries within this framework. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal are experiencing outright financial crises. This article’s thesis is that small middle-income countries (MICs) in the eurozone face two general macroeconomic problems: (1) there is inherent macroeconomic instability; and (2) there is a problem of “competitiveness and convergence.” Small MICs’ ability to grow and catch up is demand-based and largely export-driven. Price competitiveness is an important factor of competitive growth within the eurozone. A national fiscal policy is crucial to countries’ ability to form and implement national policies for economic stability and competitive growth, which would enable a durable, above-average growth rate. Calls for a fiscal union along with the monetary union may therefore backfire.     

The Long Gestation and Brief Triumph of Import-Substituting Industrialization

As a set of ideas and practices, import-substituting industrialization became the dominant development strategy after WWII. This article examines the highly diverse origins of what became a kind of consensus, one that was most explicitly articulated through the ECLA/CEPAL “school,” inspired by Raúl Prebisch. Explicit attention is paid to the congruence of economic strategy and political formations. As the “Washington Consensus” displaces the “ECLA Consensus,” one must ask how those developing countries that have not yet industrialized may do so in the absence of high levels of protection.     

Three questions on China's “Belt and Road Initiative”

Three broad questions about China's “Belt and Road Initiative” are raised. First, what are likely to be the real objectives behind the Initiative? Second, are investment and trade, considered the “major task” of the Initiative by China, to be driven by market-based transactions, or will they be a form of foreign aid that is not based on economic calculation of gains and losses? Third, which of the 60 or so countries in Asia, Europe and Africa along the Belt and Road will likely be the Initiative's priority targets of economic cooperation?     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

What＇s So Special about China＇s Producer Services？ An Input-output Analysis

In the present study, five stylized facts about China ＂s producer services are established through international, intersectoral and intertemporal comparisons based on input --output tables. First, the overall service input ratio is the lowest in all the sample economies. Second, most producer services are supplied by the traditional labor-intensive sectors. Third, manufacturing is the biggest user of producer services, and service industry is the second, while the opposite is true for most of the other sample economies. Fourth, unlike other economies, China ＂s ＂R＆D＂ is characterized more by consumer services than producer services. Fifth, China has fairly lower service input ratios in almost all the industries. The backward and forward linkages coefficients are both smaller for ＂real estate activities＂ and ＂finance and insurance. ＂＂ Policy reform should focus not only on specific producer services but also on reducing obstacles that are inhibiting the balanced development of diverse producer services that will help China to optimize its economic structure.     

A chronology of cycles in real economic activity for Norway, 1867–1914

Abstract

Business cycles, defined as “recurrent sequences of persistent and pervasive expansions and contractions in economic activities”¹, have been a distinctive feature of the experience of capitalist countries as far back as our historical records on aggregate economic activity go. Indeed, Schumpeter maintained that “[a]nalyzing business cycles means neither more nor less than analyzing the economic process of the capitalist era … Cycles are not, like tonsils, separable things that might be treated by themselves, but are, like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them”.²     

Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth

We examine the mechanism by which human capital affects economic growth and convergence, using provincial level panel data from China. We specify alternative measures of human capital and apply them to an enhanced growth model, which we estimate parametrically, nonparametrically, and with a threshold model. Our results show that economic convergence is pronouncedly conditional on human capital across all measures. The positive “benefit of being backward” due to lower initial income is almost trumped by the negative impact of low levels of human capital in the poorest areas.     

Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?

Economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates. Even so, I believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon “best practices,” stated in the form of “general guidelines” or even “universal principles.” However, “best practices” are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice. So my first conclusion is a cautionary, and negative, one: Specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals, firms, markets, countries, and time that most any attempt to define “best practices” that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations. However, even if economics cannot identify “the” truth, it can often identify “a” truth. So my second conclusion is a more positive one: Economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies, but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories, recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances. I illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work. I conclude with some “best practices” recommendations of my own, recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort.     

Making Negotiated Land Reform Work: Initial Experience from Colombia,Brazil and South Africa

The paper describes background, initial experience, and future challenges associated with a new “negotiated” approach to land reform. This approach has emerged as, following the end of the Cold War and broad macroeconomic adjustment, many countries face a “second generation” of reforms to address deep-rooted structural problems and provide the basis for sustainable poverty reduction and economic growth. It reviews possible theoretical links—through credit market or political channels—between asset ownership and economic performance. Program characteristics in each country, as well as lessons for implementation, and implications for monitoring and impact assessment are discussed.     

La régulation des mouvements trans-frontières de déchets. Un dispositif à consolider

Following nasty affairs of wastes exports toward developing countries, international agreements (notably the Basel Convention) have been passed to try to regulate the international movements. A statistical overview (for the year 1998) of the official movements is given, but other traffics are existing and are very difficult to estimate. Some factors explain these exchanges and traffics, then the vulnerability of some countries; the waste movements generally follow the economic and social “slopes” (the “differentials”) between countries. More precisely, how to discover these traffics? What is the risk for the offender? The monitoring of the plan or the command-and-control process has to be improved. Moreover some legal aspects have to be clarified. Affairs (since 1990) and cases of substances and products are briefly reminded. More globally the requirements for a more effective regulation are brought into question.     

A search for robust East Asian development models after the financial crisis: mutual learning from East Asian experiences

The purpose of this paper is to search for new robust East Asian economic development models following the financial crisis. Specifically, this paper addresses both robustness and sustainability of Korea’s Chaebol-led model, Taiwan’s SMEs-led model, and Malaysia’s FDI-led model, respectively. East Asia’s new development paradigm can be reformulated not only by adopting and learning advanced financial innovations of global standards in the framework of Gershenkron’s “advantages of backwardness,” but also in the concept of “mutual learning” from both strengths and weaknesses of development models of the three countries. East Asia has neglected too long some inherent wisdoms that are contained in its “miracle models,” yet it shows that their different paths to development may lead to a positive policy convergence.     

International Monetary Instability All Over Again

One of the signature developments of 2016 was the move from globalization and market integration toward nationalism and protection. A headline in the Financial Times (April 13, 2017) read, “‘Sword of protectionism hangs over trade’, says IMF.” The headline demonstrates “Silo-ism”. The Fund does not recognize that the demand for import barriers in countries with large trade deficits and high unemployment have resulted from massive imbalances in international payments. Monetary instability in the 1920s and the 1930s was reflected in the overvaluation of the British pound, the undervaluation of the French franc and subsequent overvaluation of the U.S. dollar. Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, in part because the high price of the British pound depressed exports and wages in manufacturing. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has doubled since 1980, yet manufacturing employment has declined by eight million. The demand for protection in the U.S. has increased because the more rapid growth of imports than exports has led to the decline of three to four million U.S. manufacturing jobs.