AN INDUSTRIOUS REVOLUTION IN AN EAST ASIAN MARKET ECONOMY? TOKUGAWA JAPAN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GREAT DIVERGENCE

This paper addresses a question raised by Jan de Vries' on the relationship between industriousness and the rise of the market in East Asia. Was the growing industriousness in Tokugawa Japan, as de Vries suggests, a substitute ‘for the absence of markets’? The examination refers to two versions of Chayanov's peasant farm model and their empirical relevance to the Tokugawa agrarian history, with special reference to the formation of labour‐intensive peasant farming (Akira Hayami's version of an industrious revolution), product specialisation, and the markets for production factors, land, and labour. Its implications for the Great Divergence debate are also discussed.     

OPPORTUNITY OR CHALLENGE? AUSTRALIA AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, 1950–57

This paper examines Australia's approach to Western European integration in the 1950s. While superficially supportive of steps towards greater Western European cooperation, the Menzies government had an ambivalent attitude towards the integration process. Ministers and officials in Canberra recognised the importance of a strong and prosperous Western Europe, but the formation of a tightly knit Continental grouping also posed a number of major challenges to the makers of post‐war Australian foreign policy. The Menzies government soon began to wonder whether attempts to create supranational bodies in Continental Europe accorded with Australian political, economic, and security interests.     

IS A GOVERNMENTAL MICRO‐CREDIT PROGRAM FOR THE POOR REALLY PRO‐POOR? EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

It is argued that without collateral the poor often face binding borrowing constraints in the formal credit market. This justifies a micro‐credit program, which is operated by the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies to provide the poor with preferential credit. The present paper examines poverty targeting and the impact of the micro‐credit program. It is found that the program is not very pro‐poor in terms of targeting. The nonpoor account for a larger proportion of the participants. The nonpoor also tend to receive larger amounts of credit compared to the poor. However, the program has reduced the poverty rate of the participants. The positive impact is found for all three Foster‐Greer‐Thorbecke poverty measures.     

WHO DEVELOPS INNOVATIONS IN MEDICINE FOR THE POOR? TRENDS IN PATENT APPLICATIONS RELATED TO MEDICINES FOR HIV/AIDS,TUBERCULOSIS, MALARIA,AND NEGLECTED DISEASES

This paper analyzes patent data of medicines and vaccines for diseases spreading in low‐income countries. The data were retrieved from a database of the Japan Patent Office. Who invents medicines for the poor of the world? This is the main question that the paper addresses. Results indicate that not only public institutions but also private firms have played an important role in developing innovations for fighting both global diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, and so‐called neglected diseases including malaria, which seem to spread almost exclusively in low‐income countries. Moreover, the basic mechanism of innovation is similar between the development of medicines for HIV/AIDS and those for neglected diseases. Finally, among firms, infectious disease fighting innovations are quite diverse. R&D stock and economies of scope are used to explain frequent patent applications by a high‐performing pharmaceutical firm.     

GROWTH ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S AGRICULTURE WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO FERTILIZER AND NONAGRICULTURAL PRICES: DO POLICY REFORMS AFFECT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT?

The agricultural sector of Sri Lanka reacted sharply to the highly contentious policy reforms called Structural Adjustment Programs. We used a four‐sector general equilibrium model under a growth accounting approach to find out the effect of the policy (exogenous) variable on the target (endogenous) variable. Here, we considered only the most important variables, and the overall results indicate that policy changes are favorable to overall agricultural development, although their effect on the domestic food sector is negative. The most serious negative determinant under the policy changes relates to fertilizer, and our study indicates that fertilizer prices considerably affect agricultural production; it especially has a negative effect on domestic food production. Second, this paper analyzes the impact of nonagricultural price, finding that it positively helped the development of overall agriculture. Third, agricultural exports increased under the new policy reforms and made large contributions to agricultural production.     

LOUD AND CLEAR? CAN WE HEAR WHEN THE SARB SPEAKS?

Inflation targeting is a forward‐looking framework for monetary policy that has brought unprecedented transparency to the process of monetary policy. This paper aims to assess the degree to which the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has, since the introduction of inflation targeting, successfully communicated to the public its policy analysis, and, in particular, the expected future policy changes. It follows international literature in constructing a numerical index that is used to reflect the information content of the SARB's communications, specifically the monetary policy statements that accompanied each of the MPC meetings since 2000. This method allows us to judge, systematically, the degree to which the MPC has communicated successfully, and the evolution of that success over the past nine years. We find evidence that the MPC has succeeded in signalling their likely future policy decision with consistency over this period.     

WHEN DO VERTICAL RESTRAINTS HARM COMPETITION? THE ECONOMICS‐BASED APPROACH AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE BATSA CASE

An “effects‐based” or “economics‐based” approach to competition policy requires a theory of harm that causally links a business practice and its allegedly anti‐competitive effects and also weighs anti competitive effects against the pro‐competitive effects of the practice. This implies a shift away from per se prohibitions of certain practices towards case‐by‐case analysis – a move that has been hotly debated, especially in Europe. Using a case study of the recently concluded British American Tobacco case, we study the core features of an effects‐based approach to vertical restraints. We find the approach followed in the British American Tobacco South Africa case generally consistent with an effects‐based analysis, but highlight some limitations.     

FIRM PRODUCTIVITY AND INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: HOW DOES MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MANUFACTURING PERFORM?

Firm productive performances in five Middle East and North African (MENA) economies and eight manufacturing industries are compared to those in 17 other developing countries. Although the broad picture hides some heterogeneity, enterprises in MENA often performed inadequately given the middle‐income status of the MENA economies, with the exception of Morocco and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia. Firm competitiveness is a more constant constraint, with a unit labor cost higher than in most competitor countries, as well as investment climate (IC) deficiencies. The empirical analysis also points out how IC matters for firm productivity through the quality of infrastructure, the experience and education of the labor force, the cost and access to financing, and different dimensions of the government–business relationship. These findings bear important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the IC, in which industry, could help manufacturing in MENA to be more competitive in the globalization context.     

SOCIAL CLEAVAGES AND ELECTORAL SUPPORT IN TURKEY: TOWARD CONVERGENCE?

Studies on Western democracies have shown that deep‐seated social cleavages stabilize the electoral behavior and thus reduce electoral volatility. But how do social cleavages affect a party system that is undergoing democratic consolidation, such as in Turkey? In this study, investigations were carried out on long‐ and short‐term relationships between social cleavages (religiosity, ethnicity, and sectarism) electoral volatility in Turkey during the 1961–2002 period. Cross‐sectional multiple regressions were applied to electoral and demographic data at the provincial level. The results showed that in the longterm, social cleavages on the whole have increased volatility rather than reduced it. The cleavage‐volatility relationship, however, has changed over time. Repeated elections have mitigated the volatile effect of social cleavages on the voting behavior, as political parties have become more representative of the existent social cleavages.     

“Sent to Coventry?”

This paper reports on an employment training project undertaken in Coventry with partial funding from the European Social Fund. It involved community organisations, the community education section of the local authority and the university. The approach to training was developed in tandem with community capacity building aims. The partnership achieved a measure of trust, mutual accountability and open decision-making. The two-year project employed a part-time researcher whose role embraced active participation in project processes. There are lessons to be drawn for urban regeneration, whether strengthening local economies, attacking social exclusion or capacity building for people and their communities.     

DOES SOCIAL SECURITY AFFECT RETIREMENT AND LABOR SUPPLY? EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

This paper explores the effects of the social security system on retirement and labor supply decisions. Due to the regulations established by Chilean social security law reform, two social security systems coexist in Chile: the “Pay‐As‐You‐Go” and the individual account system. The coexistence of the systems allows us to better understand the effects of both social security systems on retirement and labor supply. We find that (1) larger benefits in any social security system induce earlier retirement and (2) larger variance of benefits in the individual account system induces later retirement. We do not find major impacts of social security on labor supply of individuals in the labor force.     

THE CAMBRIDGE CONTROVERSIES: OLD WAYS AND NEW HORIZONS--OR DEAD END?

‘[T]he established critics of a theory have nearly asmuch interest in the survival of the theory they criticize asits supporters; for when it is abandoned they are transportedfrom the exciting forefront of current scientific debate toa dignified but unexciting position in the museum of the historyof the subject’ (Nuti [1974, p. 364]). ‘If anything explains the heat of debates in growth [andcapital] theory, it is the difficulty thinkers in the scholastictradition have in appreciating that, for workers in the scientifictradition, it makes sense to entertain a model and use it withoutbeing committed to it; while the scientists cannot imagine whymere models should be the object of passion’ (Mirrlees[1973, p. xxi]).     

WAS THERE A GUARANTEE EFFECT FOR THE OTTOMAN LOANS IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY?

This study analyses the effect of formal guarantees of the British government on the performance of Turkish bonds issued in the second half of the nineteenth century. We compare the yields and prices of 11 bonds issued by the Ottoman government with different guarantees attached to each bond. Our findings indicate that the formal guarantee of the British government was significant in determining the prices and yields of Ottoman bonds. Even though the British guarantee had no effect on Ottoman institutions, practices, and fiscal fundamentals, the yields on the guaranteed loan did not move together with other Ottoman loans.     

CHILD LABOR AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN RURAL INDIA: WHOSE EDUCATION MATTERS?

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of child labor and school enrollment in rural Andhra Pradesh, India. A village fixed‐effect logit model for each child is estimated with the incidence of child labor or school enrollment as the dependent variable, in order to investigate individual and household characteristics associated with the incidence. Among the determinants, this paper focuses on whose education matters most in deciding the status of each child, an issue not previously investigated in the context of the joint family system. The regression results show that the education of the child's mother is more important in reducing child labor and in increasing school enrollment than that of the child's father, the household head, or the spouse of the head. The effect of the child's mother is similar on boys and girls while that of the child's father is more favorable on boys.     

PPP: <Emphasis Type=Italic>Delusion</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type=Italic>Reality</Emphasis>? Evidence from a Nonlinear Analysis

In this paper we analyze the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in a nonlinear framework using data for 18 bilateral US dollar exchange rates. Following Enders and Ludlow (2002), we use unit root and cointegration tests that do not assume a specific nonlinear adjustment. We find evidence of non-linear mean reversion in deviations from the PPP equilibrium in 11 out of 18 currencies. Additionally, to disentangle the respective contribution of exchange rate and prices to the adjustment toward the long run equilibrium, we estimate a Vector Error Correction Model. According to our empirical analysis, there exists a nonlinear mechanism to correct for deviation from the PPP equilibrium that comes mainly from the exchange rates. This is consistent with theoretical arguments on international goods markets under transaction costs as well as with an emerging strand of empirical literature. These results highlight the importance of neglecting the possibility of nonlinearity in the debate about the PPP and provide empirical evidence that supports the scenario of the PPP hypothesis as a reality.