Pricing with Consumer Switching Costs: Evidence from the Credit Card Market

The credit card market is a natural setting for investigating the relationship between pricing and consumer switching costs. I find, using a detailed panel of credit card issuers, that switching costs are an important influence on pricing for commercial banks. The results are stronger for commercial banks with risky customer bases, suggesting that there is a relationship between default and switching costs. Switching costs appear to have almost no influence on pricing for credit unions, a result that is consistent with their status as not–for–profit entities.     

Interstate Long Distance Rates: Search Costs,Switching Costs,and Market Power

A number of authors have argued that the divestiture of AT & T did not reduce the rates of long distance telephone companies as often believed. However, the literature has offered few explanations as to why competition has not lowered rates. This study argues that rates have failed to fall due to the importance of search and switching costs in the industry. Using a panel data set of rates for the three largest long distance carriers, stretching from 1984 to 1993, a reduced form equation is specified to empirically test for the influence of search and switching costs on the price cost margin of the three carriers. The results illustrate that both search and switching costs have provided long distance carriers with market power.     

Urban Land Development and its Prices: The Effects of Conversion Costs with Redevelopment

This paper analyzes urban land development when landowners anticipate a future large-scale redevelopment by a third party developer. Landowners' initial development activities can deter such redevelopment because they impose two conversion costs on the redeveloper: demolition costs and landowners' reservation prices. These costs are eventually borne by the landowners when the developers' market is competitive. For the landowners' initial development activities, we analyze both the efficient solution and the noncooperative solution under the Nash equilibrium. In both cases, the possibility of redevelopment results in a lower level of initial development due to the conversion costs, but increases land prices. However, the magnitude of their effects is smaller in the Nash solution due to an externality. The presence of such an externality provides a rationale for zoning and urban planning.     

Win/Loss Data and Consumer Switching Costs: Measuring Diversion Ratios and the Impact of Mergers*

We propose an identification strategy for diversion based on win/loss data. First, we show that win/loss data from the merging firms and market shares in two periods for all firms are sufficient to identify the diversion ratios between the merging partners. Second, we show that win/loss data from the merging firms alone are sufficient for partial identification, and we construct a lower bound that provides a good approximation to the diversion ratio when switching costs are high. We demonstrate the performance of our method with numerical simulations and with an application to the Anthem/Cigna merger.     

The Effects of Securitization on Consumer Mortgage Costs

We examine the effects of securitization on two dimensions of consumer mortgage costs: coupon rates and loan origination fees. We find no evidence that securitization reduces the coupon rates on fixed- or adjustable-rate mortgages. Instead, securitization appears to lower mortgage loan origination fees, resulting in substantial savings for consumers. Securitization activity includes passthrough creation and collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) creation. We test for differences between the effects of passthrough and CMO creation on primary mortgage costs. Surprisingly, these activities appear to have indistinguishable effects on loan rates and origination fees, suggesting that a large derivatives market for mortgage loans is not creating value for consumers.     

The Effects of the Interstate Commerce Act on Transport Costs: Evidence from Wheat Prices

There is significant debate over the effect of the Interstate Commerce Act (ICA) on the cost of rail transport to shippers. Taking price differences across locations as proxy for transport costs, we use data on wheat prices before and after the implementation of the ICA to see if the Act led to smaller differences in wheat prices across American cities relative to a control group of European cities. We find that the ICA had no effect on US transport costs; however, it reduced their volatility substantially. This evidence supports the view that the ICA helped stabilize cartel prices after a period of significant price wars.     

The Effects of Megamergers on Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function

This paper examines the efficiency and price effects of mergers by applying a frontier profit function to data on bank megamergers. We find that merged banks experience a statistically significant 16 percentage point average increase in profit efficiency rank relative to other large banks. Most of the improvement is from increasing revenues, including a shift in outputs from securities to loans, a higher-valued product. Improvements were greatest for the banks with the lowest efficiencies prior to merging, who therefore had the greatest capacity for improvement. By comparison, the effects on profits from merger-related changes in prices were found to be very small.     

The Effect of Refinancing Costs and Market Imperfections on the Optimal Call Strategy and the Pricing of Debt Contracts

This article, which was originally written in 1986, develops a methodology for valuing mortgage-backed securities with refinancing costs. We solve simultaneously for the valuation of the mortgage-backed security (loan) and the borrower's refinancing strategy, pricing all coupon levels simultaneously. Because the borrower may refinance his or her loan and incur costs at many times in the future, the optimal refinancing decisions arise from an optimal dynamic strategy that reflects the costs of all potential future refinancings. Though the borrower faces multiple rounds of refinancing costs, the market value of the loan cannot exceed the call price plus a single round of refinancing costs.     

The Effect of Bid Rigging on Prices: A Study of the Highway Construction Industry

This paper examines the effect of multimarket contact in afirst price sealed bid government procurement auction market. It investigates whether bidprices in the highway construction industry are related to conditions that favor the formation of a cartel.Repeated contacts among firms are found to have a significantly positive effect on the winning low bidwhich leads to higher profit. Further, rivalry among few firms tends to exacerbate the multimarket effect.The results in this study additionally support the recent theoretical predictions that collusion isbetter sustainable during economic downturns.     

Opportunity Cost Pass‐Through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers

This paper investigates the transmission of fossil fuel commodity spot market price changes to procurement costs of U.S. power producers. We measure and compare the speed and magnitude with which spot prices predict procurement costs using restricted access fuel price data. Natural gas spot prices are quickly reflected in procurement costs. Coal spot prices offer very little predictive power to coal procurement costs. Although not causal, the empirical results also show differences across regulatory status. These findings may have implications for the electricity market deregulation literature that creates marginal cost curves as a competitive benchmark.     

The Effect of Mortgage Rate Buydowns on Housing Prices:

The model developed in this paper analyzes the effect of builder-financed FHA-VA mortgage subsidies or buydowns on the price of housing. Hedonic pricing equations are estimated for a locationally and qualitatively uniform sample of new tract development homes. The explanatory variables are vectors of physical and financial characteristics. The latter include a continuous variable for discount points paid by builders which is indicative of the magnitude of prepaid finance charges. The results indicate that a substantial portion of mortgage subsidy costs are shifted to buyers in the form of inflated housing prices.     

Consumer Preferences in Housing Market Analysis: An Application of Multidimensional Scaling Techniques

The value of single–family housing is a function of demographic, economic and psychographic variables. Much work has been done on the objectively measurable criteria, but virtually none on the subjective, perceptual criteria. This study uses consumer-supplied similarity measures of housing alternatives to develop a multidimensional perceptual "map" of the way consumers view housing choices. The dimensions of this perceptual space represent the evaluative criteria utilized, consciously or unconsciously, during the housing evaluation process. The analysis, although exploratory in nature, suggests that all perceptually defined market segments use the same evaluative construct; that market segments may be defined in terms of differences in the relative importance of each criterion; that market segments do not necessarily correspond to simple demographic measures; and that the major evaluative criteria in the perceptual process generally agree with those found in the literature based on objective measurements.     

Digging Deep to Compete: Vertical Integration,Product Market Competition and Prices

This article establishes a causal effect of product market competition on vertical integration. I exploit a hitherto unexplored natural experiment in the U.S. coal mining industry and a unique mine‐level organizational data set. Following an exogenous increase in product market competition, the incidence of vertical integration fell by 33% within the treatment group relative to the counterfactual. I find novel evidence that transition to the lower degree of vertical integration is driven by competition's reducing market prices by 32% which decreased the incentive to conduct vertical mergers. I discuss several possible interpretations of these changes.     

A Treatment Effect Method for Merger Analysis with an Application to Parking Prices in Paris

We propose a method of building control groups for retrospective merger evaluation. The procedure involves two parameters: a distance or radius, and an ‘order of exposure’ reflecting the notion that a merger can affect an outlet in a more or less direct way. We implement the method of estimating the price effect of a merger in the Paris parking market and illustrate the consequences of including indirectly exposed outlets in the control group. The methodology applies to any industry with spatial competition and allows one to check the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the control group.     

Timing the Start of Material Substitution Projects: Creating Switching Options under Volatile Material Prices

Firms developing new products often face the challenge of making investment decisions under uncertain input–cost conditions due to the price volatilities of the materials they use. These decisions need to be made long before the final products are launched on the market. Therefore, firms that invest in the opportunity to switch materials in a timely manner will have the flexibility to react to material price changes and realize competitive advantages. However, volatile material prices may also cause a firm to delay investment. Using real‐options reasoning, this paper studies the influence of input‐cost fluctuations on the timing decision to start new product development (NPD) and thus create the follow‐on opportunity to later replace an existing product. A model that combines waiting and switching options to derive influencing factors of the flexibility value that triggers the investment is developed and tested on a sample of material substitution projects from manufacturing firms. The results show how price uncertainty of the new and the old material, their joint price development, the expected project duration, and competitive preemption are related to the propensity to delay the start of NPD. The findings provide new insights on how timing in adopting materials can be used to hedge exposure to volatile material prices. The insights are relevant for adopters and producers of new materials, as well as for policy makers who strive for supporting the diffusion of new materials.     

A Regime‐Switching Approach to Modeling Rental Prices of U.K. Real Estate Sectors

This article uses regime‐switching models of the threshold type to analyze the adjustment process of rental prices for three U.K. commercial real estate sectors over the period 1974–2008. The nonlinear models outperform their linear counterparts in in‐sample fit. Their out‐of‐sample forecasting ability is better whenever the corresponding linear models contain a significant amount of neglected nonlinearity. Regime switches are triggered when the growth rates of rental price exceed certain threshold levels. For the industrial and retail sectors such regime switches occur in situations of strong excess demand, for the office sector they occur when there is strong excess supply.     

List Prices,Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade‐off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller's reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of numerical sensitivity tests, where we show that the greater the variance of the distribution of buyers’ potential offers, the greater is the ratio of the list price to expected sales price. Thus, sellers of atypical goods will tend to set a relatively high list price compared with standard goods. We test this hypothesis using data from the Columbus, Ohio, housing market and find substantial support. We also find empirical support for another hypothesis of the model: atypical dwellings take longer to sell.     

The Role of Market Research in the Development of New Consumer Products

Managers today face the twin challenges of producing better results, faster than ever before. Robert Davis presents a number of lessons on how market research can enhance a typical new product development and decision plan. His central theme is the disciplined use of very focused market research to make better and faster decisions about a new product throughout its development. These lessons are based on his thirty years of experience in market research, mostly in the new products work conducted at Procter & Gamble.     

The Role of Retail Prices and Promotions in Determining Cigarette Brand Market Shares

Over the past two decades, two forms of price competition have emerged within the cigarette industry: the introduction and spread of discount and deep discount cigarettes and the increased use of price-related promotions. In this paper, we use quarterly market-level, scanner-based data on cigarette prices, promotions, and sales for 50 US markets over the period from 1994-IV through 2002-II to examine the impact of price and promotions on market shares for premium, discount, and deep discount brand cigarettes. Our estimates indicate that changes in relative prices, including those resulting from promotions, account for much of observed changes in market shares.     

Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Bank and Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB‐reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the high reliance of the borrowing institutions on advances as a sign of distress. Portfolios that consist of only bank holding companies show qualitatively similar results.