Reforms in Thai bank governance: The aftermath of the Asian financial crisis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of Thailand's bank governance reforms after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and then examines the stock market's response. Unlike the pre-crisis period, we find that the bank sector returns (or return volatilities) have become more Granger causal to the overall stock market in the post-crisis period. Announcements of bank governance reforms are also generally associated with significant change in bank sector returns. This adds to the proposition that improved bank governance is related to improved bank performance as measured by their bank stock returns.     

A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations. Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro–macro model, takes into account dynamic linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal or exceed 15% of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008.     

Export incentives,financial constraints,and the (mis)allocation of credit: Micro-level evidence from subsidized export loans

This paper combines an exogenous shock to the supply of subsidized credit with unique loan-level data from the export sector in Pakistan to identify the impact and allocation of such financial incentives. The removal of subsidized credit causes a significant decline in the exports of privately owned firms, while the exports of large, publicly listed, and group network firms are unaffected. Publicly listed firms make no significant adjustments to their balance sheets, and only their profits are reduced, indicating that they are financially unconstrained. Nearly half of all subsidized loans are assigned to such firms, implying a substantial misallocation of credit and an output loss to privately owned firms of 0.75% of GDP. Productivity differences do not explain the heterogeneous effects across firms.     

Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis

We investigate the interdependence of the default risk of several Eurozone countries (France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) and their domestic banks during the period between June 2007 and May 2010, using daily credit default swaps (CDS). Bank bailout programs changed the composition of both banks’ and sovereign balance sheets and, moreover, affected the linkage between the default risk of governments and their local banks. Our main findings suggest that in the period before bank bailouts the contagion disperses from bank credit spreads into the sovereign CDS market. After bailouts, a financial sector shock affects sovereign CDS spreads more strongly in the short run. However, the impact becomes insignificant in the long term. Furthermore, government CDS spreads become an important determinant of banks’ CDS series. The interdependence of government and bank credit risk is heterogeneous across countries, but homogeneous within the same country.     

Disentangling the effect of jumps on systematic risk using a new estimator of integrated co-volatility

We propose a new threshold–pre-averaging realized estimator for the integrated co-volatility of two assets using non-synchronous observations with the simultaneous presence of microstructure noise and jumps. We derive a noise-robust Hayashi–Yoshida estimator that allows for very general structure of jumps in the underlying process. Based on the new estimator, different aspects and components of co-volatility are compared to examine the effect of jumps on systematic risk using tick-by-tick data from the Chinese stock market during 2009–2011. We find controlling for jumps contributes significantly to the beta estimation and common jumps mostly dominate the jump’s effect, but there is also evidence that idiosyncratic jumps may lead to significant deviation. We also find that not controlling for noise and jumps in previous realized beta estimations tend to considerably underestimate the systematic risk.     

Quadratic Hawkes processes for financial prices

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes (‘Quadratic’ Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in Bacry and Muzy [Quant. Finance, 2014, 14(7), 1147–1166], by allowing feedback effects in the jump intensity that are linear and quadratic in past returns. Our model exhibits two main properties that we believe are crucial in the modelling and the understanding of the volatility process: first, the model is time-reversal asymmetric, similar to financial markets whose time evolution has a preferred direction. Second, it generates a multiplicative, fat-tailed volatility process, that we characterize in detail in the case of exponentially decaying kernels, and which is linked to Pearson diffusions in the continuous limit. Several other interesting properties of QHawkes processes are discussed, in particular the fact that they can generate long memory without necessarily being at the critical point. A non-parametric fit of the QHawkes model on NYSE stock data shows that the off-diagonal component of the quadratic kernel indeed has a structure that standard Hawkes models fail to reproduce. We provide numerical simulations of our calibrated QHawkes model which is indeed seen to reproduce, with only a small amount of quadratic non-linearity, the correct magnitude of fat-tails and time reversal asymmetry seen in empirical time series.     

Competition and innovation: Evidence from financial services

This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between competition and innovation by extending previous literature from manufacturing to financial services. We introduce a new measure of overall innovation by estimating and enveloping annual minimum cost frontiers to create a global frontier. The distance to the global frontier constitutes each bank’s technology gap, which decreases if the bank manages to innovate. Our innovation measure enables us to derive and estimate the model of Aghion et al. (2005b) at the firm level for the US banking industry. Based on individual bank Call Report data for the period 1984–2004, consistent with theoretical and empirical work by Aghion et al., we find evidence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation that is robust over several different specifications. Further evidence on major structural changes in the US banking industry indicates that banks moved beyond their optimal innovation level and that interstate banking deregulation resulted in lower bank innovation. Policy implications to financial reform and prudential regulation are discussed also.     

Trading networks and liquidity provision

We study the profitability of traders in two fully electronic and highly liquid markets: the Dow and Standard & Poor?s 500 e-mini futures markets. Using unique information that identify counterparties to a transaction, we show and seek to explain the fact that the network pattern of trades captures the relations between behavior in the market and returns. Our approach includes a simple representation of how much a shock is amplified by the network and how widely it is transmitted. This representation provides a possible shorthand for understanding the consequences of a fat-finger trade, a withdrawing of liquidity, or other market shock.     

Convergence and risk-return linkages across financial service firms

We examine the risk and return linkages across US commercial banks, securities firms, and life insurance companies during the 1991–2001 period. After controlling for changes in the broader stock market, interest rates, and foreign currency values, we find that return and risk interdependencies across these financial firms are significant and size-varying; larger institutions display stronger volatility transmission linkages, while smaller ones exhibit more prominent return-related linkages. The tighter link in risk among large financial institutions (FIs) suggests stronger convergence, employment of common models of risk measurement and risk management, and more intense inter-industry competition, particularly between large banks and large securities firms, compared to smaller institutions. Lack of risk spillover among smaller FIs confirms the intuition that they typically assume more localized and idiosyncratic risk. The co-movement of stock returns among smaller FIs has been helped by the effects of locally based factors, such as economic conditions and state regulations, on all such institutions, and a less diversified product set. Differences in spillover patterns between large and smaller institutions have implications on investment choices and mergers and acquisitions in the industry. Introduction of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) has had dissimilar effects on the riskiness of large versus smaller life insurance and securities firms, and an insignificant effect on commercial banks.     

Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe

Foreign currency loans represent an important feature of recent financial developments in CEECs. This might pose a serious challenge for macroeconomic stability. Against this background, we study the determinants of foreign currency loans of households, using data on the behavior of households in nine CEECs. Our results reveal that foreign currency loans are driven by households’ lack of trust in the stability of the local currency and in domestic financial institutions. Moreover, special factors including remittances and expectations of euro adoption play an important role in selected regions. The financial crisis reduced foreign currency borrowing, but there is some indication this effect might be only temporary.     

Belief updating, debt pricing and financial decisions under asymmetric information

This paper studies debt holders’ belief updating, valuation of corporate debt, and equity owners’ financing decisions during financial distress under asymmetric information. This is done within a continuous-time framework, where the relevant state variable is assumed to follow an Arithmetic Brownian motion (ABM). ABM can take negative values and has very realistic feature compared with Geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Using Chapter 11 of U.S. Bankruptcy Code as a costly screening device, we can characterize which firm will choose private workouts (in the form of strategic debt service) and which will choose to file for the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy procedure (in the form of debt-equity swap) when the firm is in financial distress. Using arguments similar to equilibrium refinements, we give a clear picture of how debt holders’ beliefs about the firm’s types are updated according to the state variable and the firm’s default behavior, and describe optimal strategies of both parties under those beliefs. We also provide an approximate solution to the debt pricing problem under asymmetric information.     

Economic value,competition and financial distress in the European banking system

In this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level (liquidity and credit risks, asset size, income diversification and market power), at the industry level (banking concentration) and macro-level (real GDP growth) on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 European commercial banks between 1996 and 2009. The observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the Shareholder Value Ratio proxy bank financial distress. We employ a panel probit regression and, given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation, we use the Bertschek and Lechner (1998) robust estimator of the covariance matrix of parameters. We show that credit risk, liquidity risk and bank market power are the most influential determinants of distressed Shareholder Value Ratio. Finally we evaluate the model out-sample forecasting performance over the 2008–2009 crisis period.     

The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets: An analysis using intraday data

This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the ‘negative covariance’ hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.     

The evolution of cost-productivity and efficiency among US credit unions

Advances in information-processing technology have eroded the advantages of small scale and proximity to customers that traditionally enabled small lenders to thrive. Nonetheless, the membership and market share of US credit unions have increased, though their average size has also risen. We investigate changes in the efficiency and productivity of US credit unions during 1989–2006 by benchmarking the performance of individual firms against an estimated order-α quantile lying “near” the efficient frontier. We construct a cost analog of the Malmquist productivity index, which we decompose to estimate changes in cost and scale efficiency, and changes in technology. We find that cost-productivity fell on average across all credit unions but especially among smaller credit unions. Smaller credit unions confronted a shift in technology that increased the minimum cost required to produce given amounts of output. All but the largest credit unions also became less scale efficient over time.     

Market power in local banking monopolies

By means of two NEIO techniques, this paper analyzes the conduct of a group of Italian single-branch banks operating as monopolists in small local areas (municipalities) in the years 1988–2005, in order to assess pricing behavior in highly concentrated banking markets. Both tests strongly reject the hypothesis of pure monopoly pricing: regardless the advantageous condition, these banks are able to exploit only partially their market power, principally by reason of the nearby competition, the latest banking consolidation trend and the local presence of big banks. Employing another sample, we also show that in duopolistic markets the conduct of single-branch banks is virtually competitive.     

THE SLOPE OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF CREDIT SPREADS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

In this article we analyze the slope of the term structure of credit spreads. We investigate the explanatory role of interest rate, market, and idiosyncratic equity variables that the recent empirical literature highlights as important determinants of credit spread levels. This study extends the analysis and assesses its effect on credit slopes for a sample of corporate bonds. We find that these factors affect credit spreads at short and long maturities in a significantly different way. A closer inspection of the credit spread slope also reveals that it is a useful indicator of the direction of changes in future short‐term credit spreads. This evidence has important implications for the trading and risk management of portfolios of bonds with different maturities.     

Hedging the black swan: Conditional heteroskedasticity and tail dependence in S&P500 and VIX

The recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlooked and not dealt with adequately. While extreme value theories have existed for a long time, the multivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalent heteroskedasticity embedded in most financial time series, and the complex extremal dependence that cannot be conveniently captured by a single structure. Moreover, most of the existing approaches are based on a limiting argument in which all variables become large at the same rate. In this paper, we show how the conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) can be implemented to model extremal dependence between financial time series. We use a hedging example based on VIX futures to demonstrate the flexibility and superiority of the conditional approach against the conventional OLS regression approach.     

A simple model of credit contagion

We propose a simple model of credit contagion in which we include macro- and microstructural interdependencies among the debtors within a credit portfolio. The microstructure captures interdependencies between debtors that go beyond their exposure to common factors, e.g., business or legal interdependencies. We show that even for diversified portfolios, moderate microstructural interdependencies have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distribution. This impact increases dramatically for less diversified microstructures.     

Pricing discretely monitored Asian options under Lévy processes

We present methodologies to price discretely monitored Asian options when the underlying evolves according to a generic Lévy process. For geometric Asian options we provide closed-form solutions in terms of the Fourier transform and we study in particular these formulas in the Lévy-stable case. For arithmetic Asian options we solve the valuation problem by recursive integration and derive a recursive theoretical formula for the moments to check the accuracy of the results. We compare the implementation of our method to Monte Carlo simulation implemented with control variates and using different parametric Lévy processes. We also discuss model risk issues.