Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

Knowledge-intensive business services in transition economies

Knowledge-intensive business services accounted for a rapid growth in transition economies after 1989. The growth in value added outpaced growth in employment, which indicated increasing labour productivity in this sector. Studies based on input–output tables found that development of business services was closely related to development of communication services in advanced EU member countries. The input–output analysis did not confirm this relation for Slovakia and the Czech Republic and found a medium to strong level of correlation for Hungary. Development of a market economy was likely to be a major factor behind development of business services. This assumption was tested on empirical data. The use of communication and business services could be a proxy for introduction of new technologies in production functions. The functions indicated that these industries made a significant contribution to economic growth both in advanced and transition economies. Output elasticity coefficients were quite similar in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia and the EU member countries.     

Investigating aggregation bias in the case of the interest rate pass-through

This analysis examines aggregation bias in the case of the interest rate pass-through in the Republic of Macedonia. By using bank-level data, the authors investigate whether there are heterogeneities and asymmetries in the size and speed of the adjustment of lending rates to changes in the cost of the funds rate. The findings in general suggest the presence of aggregation bias in the literature, implying that the empirical studies based on aggregated data may provide biased results.     

Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance

This paper develops a model of endogenous exchange rate pass-through within an open economy macroeconomic framework, where both pass-through and the exchange rate are simultaneously determined, and interact with one another. Pass-through is endogenous because firms choose the currency in which they set their export prices. There is a unique equilibrium rate of pass-through under the condition that exchange rate volatility rises as the degree of pass-through falls. We show that the relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic structure may be substantially affected by the presence of endogenous pass-through. Our key results show that pass-through is related to the relative stability of monetary policy. Countries with relatively low volatility of money growth will have relatively low rates of exchange rate pass-through, while countries with relatively high volatility of money growth will have relatively high pass-through rates.     

Institutional development and firm profitability in transition economies

Although transition economies experience significant institutional transformations that vary in their pace and magnitude, our understanding of how such changes influence firm performance is rather limited. We examine how variations in institutional reforms and international openness in 16 transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) influence firm profitability. We enhance the understanding of this subject by showing that such institutional changes have different effects on the competitive advantages and in turn profitability of domestic firms and foreign subsidiaries. Our analysis of over 230,000 observations reveals that institutional reforms benefit domestic firms. Conversely, a completely different pattern emerges for foreign subsidiaries, indicating that institutional reforms have negative consequences for their profitability. Hence, in contrast to the established assumption that developed institutional environments are advantageous for foreign subsidiaries, the nature of institutional changes makes domestic firms the main beneficiaries.     

Organizational coping with institutional upheaval in transition economies

The radical change in corporate governance systems is fundamental to the period of institutional upheaval characterizing transition economies. Using an institutional theory framework, this paper develops a model of responses to this change. The model is tested with data from 1,723 firms in 22 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States. The results suggest that a firm’s adaptation to the new governance order will be facilitated or hampered depending on the characteristics of the institutional and organizational contexts it faces. A major implication of the study is the need to consider cultural and contextual embeddedness in explaining how governance systems transform.     

Incomplete pass-through and the welfare effects of exchange rate variability

This paper considers the implications of incomplete exchange rate pass-through for optimal monetary and exchange rate policy. A two-country model is presented, which allows an explicit derivation of welfare functions in terms of a weighted sum of the second moments of producer prices and the nominal exchange rate. From a single country perspective, the optimal exchange rate variance depends on the degree of pass-through, the size and openness of the economy, the elasticity of labour supply and the volatility of foreign producer prices. Welfare may be decreasing or increasing in the volatility of the exchange rate.     

Exchange rate exposure

In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight (non-US) industrialized and emerging markets. We find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms, though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time, suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk. Exposure is correlated with firm size, multinational status, foreign sales, international assets, and competitiveness and trade at the industry level.     

State dependent pricing, invoicing currency, and exchange rate pass-through

We analyze exchange rate pass-through and volatility of import prices in a dynamic framework where firms are subject to menu costs and decide on price adjustments in response to exchange rate innovations. The exchange rate pass-through and import price volatility then depend on the invoicing currency in combination with functional forms of cost and demand functions. In particular, there is lower pass-through, less frequent price adjustments, and lower price volatility when prices are set in the importer's currency than when prices are set in the exporter's currency.     

Price stability through price-level targeting or inflation targeting? A tale of two experiments

Price stability can be attained through price-level or inflation targeting. This paper compares the two monetary policy strategies from both a historical and a theoretical perspective. The Swedish experiment with price-level targeting in the 1930 occurred within a framework that lacked the accountability characteristic of New Zealand's current policy framework for inflation-targeting. Using a simple forward-looking rational expectations framework, we show that price-level targeting offers a better output-inflation variability tradeoff than inflation targeting in the forward-looking New Keynesian framework.     

An incentive-based model of international entrepreneurship in emerging and transition economies

The importance of firms from emerging and transition economies (ETES) is rising in the global economy. But what factors drive firms from ETES to internationalize? Prior frameworks do not allow us to fully answer this question. In this paper, we present a model that conceptually links the institutional environment, the firm’s resource investment, and internationalization. We argue that the domestic institutional attributes (i.e., the degree of specificity, stability, predictability, and enforceability) of property rights and contracting institutions drive the firm’s perceived risk and uncertainty, and therefore its resource investment and ability in pursuing international strategic behaviors. Focusing on private firms in ETES whose property rights and contracting institutions are still lacking, we name our model an incentive-based model of international entrepreneurship from emerging and transition economies (IEEE).     

J-curve effect and exchange rate pass-through: an empirical investigation of the united states

The J-curve theory predicts that the balance of trade will initially deteriorate before improving after a currency depreciation. This article finds empirical evidence that some of the 1985-1987 trade balance deterioration can be attributed to this phenomenon. Import exchange rate pass-through was found to have decreased during the 1985-1987 dollar depreciation, mitigating the increase in the trade deficit     

International trade intermediaries and the transfer of marketing knowledge in transition economies

The process of market reform that characterizes the move away from regimes of central planning in transition economies creates a need for managers to acquire the techniques and skills of marketing. In contrast with an extant emphasis on inward direct investment, this study examines the role played by international trade intermediaries in the transfer of marketing knowledge across borders. Data collected from manufacturers in central China reveal that the value of marketing knowledge transferred is contingent upon intermediary performance of export marketing services and the likelihood of intermediary replacement.     

Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies

Policy reforms targeting the services sectors are a neglected dimension of the process of structural transformation and economic development. The effects of such reforms on employment across industries as a function of their use of services as intermediate inputs are theoretically ambiguous and remain largely understudied. This paper uses sector‐level data for 24 transition economies for the 1990–2012 period to assess the impacts of services policy reforms on downstream manufacturing employment. We find a negative effect of services reforms on manufacturing sector employment. This is mostly associated with the process of transition to a market‐based economy. Controlling for transition‐specific dynamics, the data suggest a neutral effect of progress towards adopting “best practice” policies for upstream services on employment in downstream manufacturing. Furthermore, in line with the extant literature, we confirm that services policy reforms enhance productivity of downstream manufacturing industries. Finally, we find that the negative effects on downstream employment are mitigated in countries with better economic governance and human capital.     

Managing internationalization and innovation tradeoffs in entrepreneurial firms: Evidence from transition economies

For entrepreneurial firms (EFs), internationalization and innovation present two major avenues for growth. Prior research, based primarily on EFs from advanced economies, demonstrates mixed insights for the relationship between these strategies. A deeper understanding of the tradeoffs involved in the internationalization-innovation relationship may help better comprehend the issue. In this study, we draw on the organizational learning and capabilities-based literatures to examine the relationship in the context of EFs in transition economies (EFTEs). Our findings suggest that in EFTEs, internationalization is negatively associated with the likelihood of innovation. We also find that three knowledge-based capabilities of EFTEs (absorptive capacity, appropriation capability, and managerial capability) positively moderate the aforementioned negative relationship. We do not find any evidence of reverse causality (EFTE innovation impacting internationalization). Our research provides novel insights to the IE literature by shedding light on the internationalization–innovation tradeoffs that EFTEs experience.     

Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs

We propose a new explanation for the foreign exchange forward-premium and delayed-overshooting puzzles. We show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in investors' beliefs about the interest rate process. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the ‘Fama’ regression. Delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of misperception. We document empirically the extent of this distortion using survey data for G-7 countries against the U.S. and find that it is strong enough to account for these irregularities.     

Exchange rate expectations and monetary policy

The adjustment process to a monetary disturbance is studied in a model of perfect capital mobility and flexible exchange rates. Exchange rate expectations are emphasized and used to establish an adjustment process. In the short run, a monetary expansion gives rise to a depreciation in the exchange rate and a reduction in saving due to the terms of trade deterioration. The exchange rate depreciation, in the short run, may be in excess of the long-run depreciation. The trade balance in the short run may worsen. The long-run equilibrium of the analysis conforms to the Mundell-Fleming results that establish the force of monetary policy under flexible rates.     

Marketing and advertising practices of Turkish entrepreneurs in transition economies: Evidence from Georgia

As a transition economy, Georgia has an uncertain, complex, and immature business environment, typical of transition economies in the Eurasian region. In an effort to provide insights into marketing and advertising practices in the Eurasian transition economies, this study empirically examines the marketing and advertising practices in Georgia through two surveys conducted with Turkish entrepreneurs in Georgia and Georgian consumers. On the one hand, the findings of the survey of the Turkish entrepreneurs indicated that an overall adaptation strategy is needed in Georgia; in addition, foreign entrepreneurs willing to enter the Georgian market are advised to offer a variety of products by collaborating with local distributors and agents. Although Georgian consumers do not have high income, low-price strategy does not always work as consumers equate low price with inferior quality. Marketing of prestigious products are to be sold at higher prices and appropriate product positioning strategies must be developed for each target market segment. Merchandising strategies must be congruent with the target market served as well as retail stores/outlets utilized. On the other hand, the Georgian consumers demand better customer service and increased variety of products; advertising is welcomed to a certain extent as long as advertising provides useful product/brand and company information.