Bayesian forecasting of UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes

The evaluation of seeding rules requires the use of probabilistic forecasting models both for individual matches and for the tournament. Prior papers have employed a match-level forecasting model and then used a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament for estimating outcome probabilities, thus allowing an outcome uncertainty measure to be attached to each proposed seeding regime, for example. However, this approach does not take into account the uncertainty that may surround parameter estimates in the underlying match-level forecasting model. We propose a Bayesian approach for addressing this problem, and illustrate it by simulating the UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes. We find that changes in 2015 tended to increase the uncertainty over progression to the knock-out stage, but made limited difference to which clubs would contest the final.     

Performance evaluation of National Football League teams

Most recent empirical analyses of production in the sports economic literature have focused on Major League Baseball. This paper extends that literature by analysing football production in the National Football League (NFL). Using the Poisson regression model, we measure the performance of NFL teams and head coaches. The measure is based on a production process where player skills are converted into games won. The evidence reveals that quality coaching is an important component in the production process. It appears that efficient coaching can account for an additional three to four victories in a given season. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency of football teams from an organisation management perspective

The aim of this paper is to assess the efficiency of football. Our contributions to the literature are the use of the resource-based theory and the strategy-structure-performance perspective as the study's framework, efficiency has been considered as the result of the qualities of the productive resources in football teams and efficiency is calculated in every area in the field of play. The results show that the entire team's efficiency is positively related to sporting success and the efficiency of attacking and ball recovery areas is directly related to the sport result and the efficiency of the team as a whole.     

Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets

The betting markets for totals in college football and arena football provide additional evidence of bettor preference for scoring. The results for college football and arena football markets are similar to those found in the professional football and professional basketball totals market. In all of these leagues, the overs are overbet. We suggest that there is a clear preference for bettors to bet the over and the extent of the bias depends upon the volume of uninformed bettors to informed bettors and limits placed on bets in these markets.     

Subcultural tensions in managing organisational culture: a study of an English Premier League football organisation

In this article, we explore subcultural interaction in the context of attempts by executives to control culture in the unusual organisational setting of football. We present evidence of five tension points in subcultural relations (togetherness or isolation, internal labour market, multiple identification and allegiances, individual and organisational requirements, and competition and cooperation). We examine how these tensions were induced and or exacerbated by the culture management efforts, as well as the ways in which the dynamics of change impacted on the objectives of executives. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the findings for theory and practice.     

Predictive analysis and modelling football results using machine learning approach for English Premier League

The introduction of artificial intelligence has given us the ability to build predictive systems with unprecedented accuracy. Machine learning is being used in virtually all areas in one way or another, due to its extreme effectiveness. One such area where predictive systems have gained a lot of popularity is the prediction of football match results. This paper demonstrates our work on the building of a generalized predictive model for predicting the results of the English Premier League. Using feature engineering and exploratory data analysis, we create a feature set for determining the most important factors for predicting the results of a football match, and consequently create a highly accurate predictive system using machine learning. We demonstrate the strong dependence of our models’ performances on important features. Our best model using gradient boosting achieved a performance of 0.2156 on the ranked probability score (RPS) metric for game weeks 6 to 38 for the English Premier League aggregated over two seasons (2014–2015 and 2015–2016), whereas the betting organizations that we consider (Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports) obtained an RPS value of 0.2012 for the same period. Since a lower RPS value represents a higher predictive accuracy, our model was not able to outperform the bookmaker’s predictions, despite obtaining promising results.     

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Using game results over a seven year span (1999–2006), we find that United States college football teams in arid regions “win” against the spread in 56.64% of games in which they host a team from a humid region. This result provides statistically significant evidence for both weak and strong form inefficiency in the spread betting markets of such games. By examining other cases of intraregional and interregional competition within the sport, we conclude that this inefficiency does not arise from the effects of travel or home field advantage. Rather, the result indicates that climate aridity is an observed characteristic for which college football betting markets do not accurately control. It is quite rare to find strong form market inefficiency arise from a single variable rather than from an elaborate, multivariable betting strategy. Therefore, the effect of climate aridity upon college football spread betting market efficiency can be characterized as dramatic. It is conjectured that remote market participants may need to “experience” certain types of relevant regional information, such as climate, to act in a market efficient manner.     

Managerial efficiency and human capital: an application to English association football

The problem of hidden action in organizations makes direct measurement of managerial performance problematic. But in English association football hidden action is unlikely to be as serious a problem because the owner observes the manager's performance each time the team plays. In this situation production frontier analysis may be used to measure managerial performance and analyze the variation in performance across managers in terms of manager human capital. Having some kind of prior affiliation with the club and achieving international recognition as a player are especially important. Overall, initial experience matters more than specific and general managerial experience. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Productive efficiency of English football teams—a data envelopment analysis approach

This paper investigates how close to their potential English Premier League Clubs play. Using a deterministic Data Envelopment Analysis Approach, the productive efficiency of 20 teams in the 2000/2001 season is measured and weaknesses of individual teams are disclosed. The sensitivity of results is analyzed with regard to different model specifications and variable combinations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DEA efficiency in agriculture: Measurement unit issues

The selection of inputs and outputs in DEA models represents a vibrant methodological topic. At the same time; however, the problem of the impact of different measurement units of selected inputs is understated in empirical literature. Using the example of Czech farms, we show that the DEA method does not provide consistent score estimates, neither a stable ranking for different popular measurements of labour and capital factors of production. For this reason, studies based on DEA efficiency results for differently measured inputs should be compared only with great caution.     

Job satisfaction in teams

This paper analyses and discusses the results of a large sample survey of job satisfaction among clerical employees working in teams. The relative strengths of association between several variables and job satisfaction are assessed and the results support the importance of on-the-job training, participation in decision making and management leadership. Questions are raised about first-line supervisors as team leaders.     

Virtual teams in organizations

Organizations continue to widely adopt virtual teams as a primary way to structure work and the recent growth in utilization has outstripped theory and research on virtual teams. The explosive growth in virtual team use by organizations and the inherent challenges of virtual teams highlight the need for theory and research to inform organizations in designing, structuring and managing virtual teams. Therefore, the purpose of this special issue is to (a) advance theory and research on virtual teams, (b) offer new directions for research on the topic, and (c) contribute to efforts to enhance the effectiveness of virtual teams in organizations. Toward this end, in this introduction we provide a brief overview of virtual teams and present an input-process-output framework to contextualize and organize the eight papers appearing in this special issue.     

On discrimination in the optimal management of teams

We study the optimal management of teams in which agents’ effort decisions are mapped (via a production technology) into the probability of the team’s success. Optimal wage schemes in such context are largely discriminatory, but we show that the extent of the discrimination crucially depends on the existence of moral hazard. More precisely, for teams with a flat structure, the domain of production technologies giving rise to discrimination is broader when agents’ actions are observable and contractible. For teams with a sequential structure, the result reverses and the domain of production technologies giving rise to discrimination is broader when there exists moral hazard. Finally, in more cooperative environments in which agents are allowed to collude, optimality does not entail discrimination, with or without moral hazard.     

Technical efficiency with multi-output,heterogeneous production: a latent class,distance function model of english football

This study combines the output distance function approach with a latent class model to estimate technical efficiency in English football in the presence of productive heterogeneity within a stochastic frontier analysis framework. The distance function approach allows the researcher to estimate technical efficiency including both on-field and off-field production, which is important in the case of English football where clubs are generally thought to maximize something other than profit. On-field production is measured using total league points, and off-field production is measured using total revenue. The data set consists of 2177 club-level observations on 88 clubs that competed in the four divisions of professional football in England over the 29-season period from 1981/82 to 2009/10. The results show evidence of three separate productivity classes in English football. As might be expected, technical efficiency estimated using the latent class model is, on average, higher than technical efficiency using an alternative method which confines heterogeneity to the intercept coefficient. Specifically, average efficiency for the sample is 87.3 and 93.2% for the random-intercept model and the latent class model respectively.     

Implementation and information in teams

A risk-neutral principal hires risk-averse agents to work in a team production process. Each agent can observe the actions taken by some subset of the other agents, and (perhaps) the realization of a random variable which is correlated with output. The principal cannot observe actions or the random variable. However, the agents can communicate with the principal, and final output is verifiable. We characterize the information structures that make it possible for the principal to implement his first best. In general it will be desirable to restrict the information available to the agents. If the first best can be implemented, then it can be implemented by a very simple mechanism, in which each agent forecasts the team output, but sends no other message.     

Champions,adapters, consultants and synergists: the new change agents in HRM

At the centre of many HRM approaches to organisational transformation and culture change is the concept of the personnel or HR professional as change agent. Storey highlighted the emerging significance of the 'changemaker' role in the UK almost a decade ago, and Ulrich has offered a powerful reinterpretation of the personnel function that affirms the significance of the HR change agent in championing competitiveness in many large US corporations. However, while the scope and influence of this role has often been questioned, the variety of forms it takes has not been satisfactorily addressed. The new survey findings and interview evidence from major UK companies presented here indicates that the change agent role has grown in significance and complexity.To partly capture these changes, a new four‐fold typology of HR change agent roles is proposed: champions, adapters, consultants and synergists.     

The Entry Draft in the National Hockey League

A BSTRACT . The study shows that French Canadians continue to suffer from entry discrimination in the National Hockey League. At the time of the draft, the future offensive performance of French Canadian (and European) players is underestimated. The addition of various measures of robustness and defensive play makes no difference. This study also takes into account the location of the teams that drafted the players. It seems that American teams discriminate against French Canadian players, while English Canada teams discriminate against Europeans. The teams from the Province of Quebec did not appear to discriminate in favour of French Canadians.     

Leadership and cooperation in growing teams

We study how the growth of teams affects leadership effectiveness and intragroup cooperation. We put experimental participants in two teams. In each team, the members voluntarily contribute to a club good. In one of the two teams, the members observe the contribution of a randomly chosen leader before they decide themselves. Two treatments allow for migration between the teams. In one of them, participants control access to their team with a voting process. By design, participants can achieve the efficient outcome only if they all move into one team. We compare the results with a leaderless setting as well as with four treatments which vary team size exogenously. The results show that high contributions of leaders encourage higher per-capita contributions of their followers which foster migration into their teams. In turn, larger teams experience even more courageous leadership and higher contributions, but the coordination effect diminishes. Nevertheless, the dismissal of potential newcomers in the treatment with voting suggests that team members see a trade-off between team size and contributions. They sacrifice economic benefits from potential entrants to maintain intrateam cooperation.     

Producer Cartels in English League Football

The institutional arrangements of sport, like other forms of human activity, are increasingly susceptible to the analytical attentions of economists. Anthony Arnold, of the University of Essex, and Ivor Benveniste, Training Manager at Levy Gee Training, examine English League football to discover inefficient patterns of cross-subsidisation, restrictive practices, a producer cartel and the exploitation of smaller clubs by larger.