Predictability of Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Risk Premia

This article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.     

Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determiningcountries' access to international capital markets and the termsof that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect thatsovereign credit ratings should systematically predict currencycrises. In practice, in emerging market economies there is astrong link between currency crises and default. Hence if creditratings are forward-looking and currency crises in emergingmarket economies are linked to defaults, it follows that downgradesin credit ratings should systematically precede currency crises.This article presents results suggesting that sovereign creditratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but doconsiderably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in creditratings usually follow currency crises, possibly suggestingthat currency instability increases the risk of default.     

Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers

The first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010 triggered a significant reevaluation of sovereign credit risk across Europe. We exploit this event to examine the transmission of sovereign to corporate credit risk. A 10% increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average by 1.1% after the bailout. The evidence is suggestive of risk spillovers from sovereign to corporate credit risk through a financial and a fiscal channel, as the effects are more pronounced for firms that are bank or government dependent. We find no support for indirect risk transmission through a deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals.     

构建本外币跨境资金监管机制

自2009年7月跨境贸易人民币结算试点以来,人民币跨境结算量呈爆发性增长。据中国人民银行数据公布,2012年累计办理跨境贸易人民币结算业务2.94万亿元,较上年增长41%,办理人民币跨境直接投资结算业务2840.2亿元,同比增长152.66%。据环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT）数据显示,2012年12月份,人民币已成为全球第十三大支付货币,跨境人民币已经兼具了本位币和国际货币的双重职能。但由于跨境人民币与外汇资金在监管主体、管理方式等方面存在一些不同,增加了本外币联动监管难度。     

本币优先视角下的本外币一体化监管研究

随着人民币跨境使用程度的不断提升,人民币日益成为我国涉外经济活动中的重要货币之一。坚持跨境资金管理的本币优先,既能提升人民币国际化水平,也能进一步促进贸易投资便利化。而实现跨境资金本外币一体化管理,则能避免监管真空和监管套利,形成监管合力,有效防范跨境资金流动风险。     

东亚本币债券市场发展水平参差不齐

亚行发布首期《亚洲债券监测》认为,东亚地区的本币债券市场规模在1997至2003年间增长了3倍,但是各国的市场发展水平参差不齐,大多数国内本币债券市场的规模还比较小。《监测》指出,"泰国的市场增长幅度最大,韩国的债券余额最高,而马来西亚本币债券余额占国内生产总值的比例最高。"《亚洲债券监测》是亚行对东亚本币债券市场的规模和构成、市场流动性、投资者情况、债券回报和市场波动,以及相关政策的回     

Currency Risk and Country Risk in International Banking

This paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar-denominated loans to foreign firms and governments. We conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation, deviations from purchasing power parity, and the effect of these deviations on the firm's and the nation's dollar-equivalent cash flows. Country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation's terms of trade and the government's willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes.     

Incomplete Consumption Risk Sharing and Currency Risk Premiums

This article studies the impact of imperfect consumption risksharing across countries on the formation of time-varying riskpremiums in the foreign exchange market and on their cross-sectionaldifferences. These issues are addressed within the frameworkof the Constantinides and Duffie (1996) model applied to a multicountryworld. The article shows that the cross-country variance ofconsumption growth rates is counter-cyclical and that this featureof consumption data is mildly helpful for currency pricing.In particular, unlike the standard CCAPM, the new model is ableto generate currency risk premiums at lower values of risk aversionand provide certain explanatory power for cross-sectional differencesin currency returns.     

Credit Risk Exposure with Currency Swaps

Most countries have adopted the proposals of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to cover credit risks incurred by banks and security institutions. For derivatives the exposed amount has been defined as the positive marked-to-market value plus an add-on factor. For currency swaps there are three add-on factors, depending on the remaining life of the contract. In this paper it is shown that they should also depend on interest differentials, the interest rate and exchange rate volatilities, and the interest correlation. Further, it is shown that credit risk is not always divided equally over both parties.     

Risk Premia in Foreign Currency Futures

This paper tests the uncorrelatedness of increments of daily foreign currency futures prices and derives implications for risk premia based on a heteroscedasticity-robust variance ratio test. There is evidence suggesting the existence of a time-varying risk premia. Moreover, the results suggest that currency futures price is not an unbiased predictor of currency spot price on corresponding maturity date of currency futures contract. The paper also applies a heteroscedasticity-adjusted Box-Pierce Q test to the same data set for comparison.     

Accounting for Sovereign Risk When Investing in Emerging Markets

In theory, political risk is project‐specific and should be accounted for in the estimation of the expected investment cash flows. But in practice, the political risk associated with this type of investment is typically accounted for implicitly by adjusting the investment's required rate of return or the discount rate. As the authors discuss in the article, this approach disguises the specific assumptions being made about the risk of expropriation and so makes it difficult to assess this risk properly. While defending some aspects of current practice, the authors argue that corporate executives should consider some changes. For example, although a project analysis that is shared with the host government could incorporate a risk adjustment to the discount rate, the authors suggest that more explicit analysis of the anticipated risk of expropriation should be incorporated into the analysis of expected project cash flows. This analysis could involve making specific assumptions about the “term structure” of expropriation risk over the life of the investment. Finally, the authors note that the political risk of making investments in emerging economies can be managed to some extent. Investments can be structured in ways that reduce political risk by structuring project cash flows in ways that better align the incentives of the project sponsor and the government of the host country.     

Trade Network Centrality and Currency Risk Premia

I uncover an economic source of exposure to global risk that drives international asset prices. Countries that are more central in the global trade network have lower interest rates and currency risk premia. To explain these findings, I present a general equilibrium model in which central countries' consumption growth is more exposed to global consumption growth shocks. This causes the currencies of central countries to appreciate in bad times, resulting in lower interest rates and currency risk premia. Empirically, central countries' consumption growth covaries more with world consumption growth, further validating the proposed mechanism.     

Mining Sector Currency Risk Management Strategies: Responses to Foreign Currency Accounting Regulation

This study investigates the impact of Approved Accounting Standard ASRB 1012, Foreign Currency Translation, on the currency risk management strategies of firms in the Australian mining industry. ASRB 1012 increased the responsiveness of most mining companies' reported earnings to exchange rate movements, and it was predicted that firms would alter their capital structures in response to the increased accounting exposure. The results suggest that mining companies decreased their proportionate levels of long-term foreign debt and increased their share capital and/or reserves to mitigate the effects of the standard on their contracts. This information is useful to standard-setters seeking an awareness of the potential micro and macro-economic effects of their pronouncements.     

An Empirical Study of International Spillover of Sovereign Risk to Bank Credit Risk

The severity and complexity of the recent financial crisis has motivated the need for understanding the relationships between sovereign ratings and bank credit ratings. This is the first study to examine the impact of the “international” spillover of sovereign risk to bank credit risk through both a ratings channel and an asset holdings channel. In the first case, the downgrade of sovereign ratings in GIIPS (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) countries leads to rating downgrades of banks in the peripheral countries. The second channel indicates that larger asset holdings of GIIPS debt increases the credit risk of cross‐border banks, and hence, the probabilities of downgrade.     

中国主权财富基金海外投资的风险防控

本文对中国主权财富基金的海外投资风险进行了分析,并对中国应采取的风险防范与安全措施提出了自己的建议。     

货币局制度货币风险与市场预期--兼谈香港的实践

本文用利率升水和期限升水来衡量货币局制度下的货币风险.通过考察港币近年的走势,发现在危机时,港币的利率升水严重,利率升水表明市场有贬值预期.危机模型表明,市场对政府是否坚持货币局制度的预期将影响政府的损失函数,从而进一步影响政府的行为,货币局是一种信心制度.因此,政府可以采取措施,改变政府的损失函数,更好地坚持货币局制度.     

国家信用风险的传导与影响研究——以欧元区债务危机为例

本文以欧元区债务危机为例研究国家信用风险的传导效应,首先,基于“欧猪五国”相对德国的十年期国债利差数据,分析债务危机在欧元区境内风险传导效应;其次,运用GVAR模型分析世界主要经济体对欧元区冲击的反应,重点分析欧元区GDP冲击对欧元区自身以及贸易关系密切的英国、美国和中国的影响。结果表明:希腊和爱尔兰对各国家信用风险产生的累积影响最为显著,西班牙和意大利较弱;欧元区经济萎缩造成的需求冲击对英国、美国和中国均有显著影响。     

我国外汇储备币种结构的风险分析

外汇储备构成的合理与否会对外汇储备收益造成直接的影响。我国的巨额外汇储备隐含着巨大的结构风险。这种风险体现在流动性、收益性、安全性多个方面。这客观上要求我们探索新的外汇储备投资渠道,与人民币汇率改革相适应;更加合理地调配外汇储备不同资产的构成比例,降低外汇储备的结构风险。