INTEGRATING A HOUSEHOLD DEMAND SYSTEM IN THE INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORK. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND MODELLING IMPLICATIONS

In this paper we argue that an accurate representation of household consumption behaviour is central to the analysis and comparison of policy interventions addressing sustainable consumption. Therefore, we propose to extend an input–output model with a specific household consumption model, at the core of which is a system of equations explaining the allocation of the households' overall expenditure across different purposes, such as buying food, the consumption of fuel for heating or electricity for cooling, education of children or travelling in terms of total expenditure and relative prices. This paper shows that the integration of a specific module for household consumption in a standard input–output model is an improvement for the analysis of the policies aimed at altering consumer behaviour.     

MIGRATION FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST IN BRAZIL:* Do Migrants Succeed?

"In this paper 1980 [Brazilian] Census microdata are used to evaluate the experiences of males who moved from the Northeast to the Southeast in the post- 'miracle' period. Using regression analysis, migrant earnings are compared to those of persons who remain in the Northeast, to estimate the average earnings gain from relocating. These results are then disaggregated by education, age at migration, period of residence, and particular sending and receiving location, to provide more specific information on which groups benefit most. Wide variation in gains is observed, but substantial improvements in earnings are reported in most cases."     

TESTING ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES

Product input–output (IO) tables are mainly constructed on the basis of product and/or industry technology assumptions. The choice is not trivial and deserves empirical analysis using input and output data at the level of establishments. This paper offers input–output compilers econometric tests to facilitate the construction of tailored hybrid technology-based product IO tables. We provide weighted likelihood ratios of the product and industry technology assumptions. Although the proposed econometric tests are aimed to be used ex ante, we construct four variants of hybrid technology-based product IO tables using establishment data from Andalusia (Spain) and contrast them to the official product IO table and the pure product and industry technology-based tables. Our econometric tests are not valid for industry IO tables.     

THE ‘REST OF THE WORLD’ – ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF MISSING REGIONS IN GLOBAL MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES

Incomplete data for the economic structure of numerous countries hamper the compilation of global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) tables. By themselves, most of these countries are of only limited importance for the global economy and incumbent environmental issues. Hence, in most recent global MRIO tables these countries are either roughly estimated or summarised in one rest of the world (RoW) region. Combining a wide range of countries, this RoW region may play a significant role in global economic and environmental accounts. We conceptualise the importance of RoW in several environmental footprint accounts and present algorithms to estimate the structure of RoW. The approach utilises the information of the economic structure within known parts of the MRIO table to estimate the unknown structure. Using this method, global warming potential and employment footprints remain stable irrespective of the chosen initial estimates, whereas natural land use footprints and individual product impacts vary significantly.     

REAL-FINANCIAL LINKAGES IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMY: AN INPUT–OUTPUT APPROACH

The recent financial crisis highlighted the importance of better understanding the interaction between macroeconomic and financial conditions. In this paper, we provide a financial social accounting matrix for the Canadian economy and use it to assess the strength of real-financial linkages by calculating and comparing multipliers with and without endogenous financial flows. It is found that taking into account financial flows increases the impact of a final demand shock on output by 4–11%. Moreover, between 2008 and 2009H1, the investment decisions of financial institutions together with the fact that non-financial institutions were unwilling or unable to increase their financial liabilities led to estimated declines in all GDP multipliers. The impact of a final demand shock on GDP declined 3–5%, while the impact of an increase in the availability of investment funds fell 30% and 55% for financial and non-financial corporations, respectively.? ^?The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to Statistics Canada. View all notes     

WHITHER CONSUMER PROTECTION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS? LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1857

Consumer protection regulation has not prevented a collapse of trust in financial markets. Theories underlying regulatory intervention require review. In the financial crisis of 1857, firms rather than public authorities restored consumer confidence. Future regulatory regimes may permit greater scope for market-based design of consumer protection measures.     

WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.     

轩尼诗X.O赏深·越慕

艺术品收藏已成为一种生活方式，它是以敏锐眼光发现价值并赋予藏品深刻生活意味的人生旅程。在轩尼诗XO看来．它更是收藏者自身生活经历的升华写照。走过生活，不断感动，慢慢地艺术的语言才能被你诠释。本期，轩尼诗XO赏深越慕——私人收藏系列为您呈现汪兴政和他的艺术收藏．聆听收藏背后的经历，分享生活之真谛。     

时代华纳总裁杰夫·比克斯教你做NO.2

长久以来，无论是政界还是企业，第二把手实在是很难做，要想当一名得力的第二把手，你必须有令第一把手的欣赏的才干，能够随时帮他，让他感到不能够缺少你；但你还必须小心翼翼地躲在一把手的光环下，避免功高盖主，让他觉着你对他有威胁；同时你还需要有非凡的平衡能力，因为你和一把手的关系非常的微妙和敏感，光靠溜须拍马、言听计从会令第一把手及同僚从心里看不起你，弄不好会永远无法“出头”不说，还有可能被迫出局。     

HOW DOES FEMALE EDUCATION AFFECT FERTLITY? A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR THE CÔTE D'IVOIRE†

This research study provides some insights into methodological issues in modeling fertility and its proximate determinants. The aim is to examine the links between female schooling and fertility in the Ivory Coast. The article first presents a brief literature review on the effect of education on fertility, describes the data and choice of econometric models, and indicates in a reduced form model the estimates of the impact of education and other socioeconomic factors on age at cohabitation and duration of breast feeding. Data are obtained from the 1986 Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey among women aged 16 years or older. A probit model is used to estimate the probability of a woman having given birth at least once. The Kaplan-Meier hazard rate (Meyer's method) is used to explain women's age at cohabitation as a function of her education, personal characteristics, and local factors such as wage rates an social service infrastructure. Duration of breast feeding is explained by household characteristics as well as cohabitation explanatory variables among a subsample of women with at least one birth. Findings from the age at cohabitation models indicate that results varied with choice of the hazard models. Controls for unobserved heterogeneity were important for estimating the effects of secondary education. Econometric techniques that captured the heaping in duration of breast feeding data did not improve the fit. Both breast feeding and education were endogenous to fertility. This means that women with more children tended to marry later and breast feed longer. Findings indicate that primary schooling had a weak impact on fertility and proximate determinants. Secondary schooling had a strong impact. Women with secondary schooling cohabited 4 years later and breast fed 8 months less than non-schooled women.     

网络门槛IN

媒体掌握着话语权。当人们把报纸当主流时．报纸掌握着话语权：当人们把电视当主流时．电视便影响着人们的判断与行为：当许多人开始上网时．网络成为话语权的一种新力量。     

从MADE IN CHINA到R＆D IN CHINA

中国离“技术大国”的梦想还有多远？ 这距离似乎正因跨国公司相继加速将技术研发中心落户中国而不断缩短。金融危机下，一拨拨外资在华工厂逃离中国，同时却有一支支外资研发大军悄然进入。中国较低的研发成本和广阔的市场潜力，让不少跨国公司将中国视为“研发避风港”。     

ON THE ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF THE BRÓDY CONJECTURE

The aim of the paper is to study the economic aspects of the Bródy conjecture: an increase in the size of a (random) input matrix causes a decline in the ratio of its subdominant and dominant eigenvalues and implies faster convergence to equilibrium [Bródy, A. (1997) The Second Eigenvalue of the Leontief Matrix. Economic Systems Research, 9, 253–258]. Simulation results provide evidence that this ratio depends inversely on the level of data aggregation and can therefore not be a good indicator of the speed of convergence of an economy to its equilibrium path. We show that this is consistent with findings based on actual input–output tables of EU member states. These results imply that theorems about the speed of convergence of random matrices are not useful in describing the cyclical dynamics of real economies.     

Researching Sales Forecasting Practice: Commentaries and authors’ response on “Conducting a Sales Forecasting Audit” by M.A. Moon,J.T. Mentzer & C.D. Smith

Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting evidence the use of a sales forecasting audit to establish the dimensions of best practice. In this commentary on the paper, the methodology underlying their approach is examined from a number of different perspectives. The commentaries examine how convincing and complete has been the choice of audit dimensions as well as how this new research fits with evidence from other sources. Both commentators and respondents agree that the topic is important to organisational practice and more research is needed to gain a complete picture of the sales forecasting function and the systems that support it. Clarifying the audit function is particularly important since sales forecasting often has a low organisational profile until events turn sour with damaging consequences to organisational viability.     

CAN THE CARBONIZING DRAGON BE DOMESTICATED? INSIGHTS FROM A DECOMPOSITION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND INTENSITY IN CHINA, 1987–2007

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17.3% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly than did gross domestic product through 2005. Through heavy governmental influence, energy intensity subsequently reduced through 2007, but just marginally. This paper uses the structural decomposition approach to understand key drivers behind changes in China's energy intensity and its energy consumption from 1987 to 2007. In our model, energy intensity change was decomposed into five factors: changes in energy efficiency, changes in share of value added, changes in input structure, changes in consumption structure, and changes in consumption volume. This paper provides insights into how changes in China's economic structure, technology, urbanization, and lifestyle affect energy intensity and energy consumption.