The trade war's impact on the financial market: Observations from the historical global trade war - the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act

This study examines financial market reactions to political events that led to the passage and repeal of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act (SHTA) from the perspective of political uncertainty. The events were a series of debates and votes held by the U.S. House and Senate before the SHTA was signed into law in 1930 and repealed in 1934. These events increase political uncertainty about trade policy, thereby creating a unique setting to measure the impact of political uncertainty on financial market reactions. We find that each event resulted in an average loss of 3.6% in the U.S. aggregate stock market over a [−1, +1] three-day window. Such negative returns were observed at the firm level. Moreover, we find that firms with higher tariff protection performed significantly better than firms with lower tariff protection on nonevent dates. Furthermore, we discovered that trading volumes were significantly higher on event dates than on nonevent dates. Stock return volatility was significantly higher during the entire debating and voting period than during the 12 months preceding its inception and 6 months following the SHTA's passage into law. However, higher tariff protection was associated with lower return volatility outside the event window. Our findings show that political uncertainty events commanded the risk premium.     

Political uncertainty and risk premia

We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.     

Government ownership and exposure to political uncertainty: Evidence from China

The government of China started its anti-corruption campaign in December 2012. Since then, more than 600 government officials have been investigated. We regard the investigations involving senior officials as signals of increased political uncertainty. Focusing on these events, we study how firms’ exposure to political uncertainty varies with government ownership. It is found that the stock performance of private firms is worse on the event days than in normal times, whereas state-owned enterprises (SOEs) suffer less from the events. Moreover, the event-day effects are not quickly reversed in the post-event periods. Among SOEs, the negative impact of the events also decreases with government ownership. The evidence indicates that government ownership mitigates firms’ exposure to political uncertainty.     

Political uncertainty and firms' information environment: Evidence from China

How political uncertainty affects the supply of value relevant information about a firm is an important but unresolved question. Using an emerging market setting where political leaders are expected to exert significant influence on economic activities, we examine the effect of political uncertainty caused by turnovers of local government leaders on a firm’s information environment. We find that during periods of political uncertainty, the total amount of idiosyncratic information about a firm that is available to the market is reduced. The adverse effect on information supply is manifest in firms that are more politically dependent and stronger when uncertainty is more severe. Further, we provide evidence suggesting that firms react to political uncertainty by reducing the amount and the quality of information provided to investors. We find that information intermediaries such as financial analysts and the media have a moderating effect on the information environment as they increase the production of information during periods of political uncertainty. However, these intermediaries do not negate the net loss of information.     

Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880–1940

Why does stock volatility increase when output declines? The theory of investment under uncertainty implies that political uncertainty may simultaneously increase volatility and reduce output. Though cause and effect are typically hard to separate, the transition from Imperial to Weimar Germany offers a natural experiment because major political events left clear traces on stock prices. Current and past increases in volatility are associated with output declines, consistent with U.S. experience. However, political events are more clearly the source of volatility, and the results support the view that the relationship between volatility and output reflects the joint effects of political factors.     

Corporate philanthropy in a politically uncertain environment: does it bring tangible benefits to a firm? Evidence from China

We examine the impact of political uncertainty on a firm’s corporate philanthropy (CP) contribution and the associated direct tangible benefits of CP to a firm. Specifically, we examine two testable hypotheses. (1) When facing political uncertainty, a firm makes more CP, and (2) after a firm makes CP contributions during a period of uncertainty, it will obtain future tangible benefits. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we document that a firm, on average, increases its CP significantly during a period of political uncertainty (e.g. when there is a new local communist party secretary or mayor). In addition, we report that, on average, a firm’s donation in year t is positively correlated with its amount of government subsidies, corporate income tax reduction, and short- and long-term bank loan amounts in year t?+?1. The findings are robust compared to those of placebo tests and fixed effect models, as well as when using an alternative measure of political uncertainty. We observe that the results are more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) than those among SOEs, corroborating the notion that during a period of political uncertainty, non-SOEs are more willing to build political connections with new city leaders through CP than are SOEs.     

Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?

This study analyzes the dynamic interactions between changes in economic policy uncertainty and the fluctuations in the cost of credit protection. We find that the differenced iTraxx and CDX indices are Granger-caused by variations in the political environment. Within a vector autoregressive framework, impulse response functions show a significant reaction of the CDS spreads to shocks in the policy risk. Implied in these findings is the possibility that country-level risk can permeate to the corporations. Furthermore, financial institutions and traders should closely monitor political developments in order to better predict the CDS premia.     

Economic policy uncertainty,institutional environments,and corporate cash holdings

We investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate cash holdings using a large sample of international firms. EPU intensifies concerns of investors on managerial self-dealing and political extraction. Consequently, the potential cost of cash holdings (i.e., expropriation) outweighs its benefit (i.e., precautionary motives), and the optimal amount of cash holdings decreases. We find supportive evidence that firms hold less cash when EPU is high. We further show that the market discounts excess cash holdings under high policy uncertainty, but this negative effect is mitigated by stronger investor protection, better freedom of press, and better government quality.     

Overreaction and underreaction in the foreign exchange market

Research has documented overreaction and underreaction for stocks and stock market indices, but it has not yet analyzed these phenomena with regard to currency exchange rates. This paper examines exchange rate changes following extreme 1-day fluctuations for currencies in industrialized and emerging markets. In this study, the exchange rate is defined as the number of foreign currency units per US dollar. An overreaction phenomenon for currencies in emerging markets and an underreaction phenomenon for currencies in industrial markets are found. Each extreme 1-day currency fluctuation event is classified according to the type of underlying reason as described in the Wall Street Journal. Events for which no announcements (undefined events) were found are associated with a stronger tendency toward overreaction than those events for which an explanation was given (defined events). This suggests that investors overreact more when the source of the extreme fluctuation is largely unknown. The defined events are classified into two groups: economic events and political events. There is some evidence that political events are associated with a stronger tendency toward overreaction than economic events. These findings can be attributed to uncertainty. Political events (e.g., civil uprising) should be more difficult to assess than economic events (e.g., the release of an inflation report), and undefined events should be associated with the largest degree of uncertainty. Cross-sectional analysis is used to relate post-event exchange rate changes to the magnitude of the initial exchange rate change, leakage, day of the week effects, type of currency (from emerging or industrial market), and the type of announcement (economic, political, or undefined) that appeared in the Wall Street Journal. The cross-sectional analysis confirms that currencies in emerging markets experience stronger degrees of overreaction than those of industrial markets, even after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Moreover, it confirms that undefined events experience stronger degrees of overreaction than defined events, even when controlling for other factors.     

政策不确定性与企业债务融资的实证研究——来自地级市层面的证据

采用2008-2015年各地级市主政官员(市长或者市委书记)更替事件作为政策不确定性的代理变量,实证检验地方主政官员更替产生的政策不确定性对企业债务融资产生的影响,并进一步考察银行关联和政治关联的作用。研究发现：存在政策不确定性时,企业会显著降低债务融资水平,且这种影响对短期债务融资水平的影响更为显著。进一步考察结果发现：建立政治关联或者银行关联的企业政策不确定性对企业债务融资水平的影响更低。     

Does managerial ownership influence corporate social responsibility (CSR)? The role of economic policy uncertainty

To explore the drivers of corporate social responsibility (CSR), we investigate how managerial ownership influences CSR in the presence of economic policy uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that, when facing more economic policy uncertainty (EPU), firms with larger managerial ownership invest significantly more in CSR. This is in agreement with the risk mitigation hypothesis, where CSR offers insurance‐like protection against adverse events. When economic policy uncertainty is not considered, however, we find that managers with higher ownership stakes invest significantly less in CSR, suggesting that CSR is driven by the agency conflict. As managers own more equity, they are subject to greater costs of CSR. Additional analyses confirm the results, including dynamic GMM, propensity score matching and instrumental‐variable analysis.     

Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market

Using a large sample of firms with single-name credit default swap (CDS) contracts in 30 countries, we document the evidence that political uncertainty, proxied by national election dummy, is positively related to firm-level credit risk. Specifically, this positive relation is more pronounced for the firms that have no political connection or poor international diversification, and in the countries with higher political uncertainty and lower investor protections. Further, by using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence to support idiosyncratic volatility and debt rollover channels through which political uncertainty affects the credit risk of individual firm.     

Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence

Political risk models highlight that political uncertainty matters for corporate investment decisions. However, how political uncertainty matters for investment allocation decisions is relatively under-explored. In this study, we examine the impact of political uncertainty associated with national elections on foreign equity portfolio in 48 countries. Our results indicate that political uncertainty reduces international equity allocations to the host country and such reduction appears more pronounced in the election year. Further analysis shows that the interaction between political uncertainty and institutional quality has a positive and significant effect on international equity portfolio flow, suggesting that the value of institutional quality outweighs the negative effects of political uncertainty. Lastly, we find equity home bias to be negative and significant; however, the interaction between political uncertainty and equity home bias appears insignificant.     

Policy Uncertainty and the Dual Role of Corporate Political Strategies

Firms use active political strategies not only to mitigate uncertainty emanating from legislative activity, but also to enhance their growth opportunities. We find that a firm's systematic risk (beta) can be hedged away by employing various political strategies involving the presence of former politicians on corporate boards of directors, contributions to political campaigns, and corporate lobbying activities. The hedging effect is greater when firms operate in more uncertain industries. In addition, active political strategies are associated with greater firm heterogeneity and make real options more value relevant as potential drivers of competitive advantages in uncertain environments.     

Political geography and corporate political strategy

We examine the relationship between political geography and corporate political strategy by considering lobbying expenditures. We find that firms increase their lobbying intensity when local politicians cannot provide a direct link to the governing elite, i.e. when firm location on the political map shifts to an area that is not closely aligned with the president. Our results indicate that firm lobbying is a means for exerting influence on political power and is primarily geared toward building valuable political capital in order to exploit short-term opportunities. Lobbying expenditures are a matter of expediency for politically active firms that tend to spend less on lobbying when there is an alignment of power and more when there is misalignment of power. We also find that more sophisticated, better informed institutional investors recognize and/or encourage corporate political strategies that involve adjusting lobbying efforts in response to changes in political geography.     

The Relation Between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Property‐Casualty Insurance Industry in the USA

Abstract:   This paper investigates the relationship between investor uncertainty, gauged by properties of analysts' forecasts, and the stock market response to earnings. We find that uncertainty is best characterized by a comprehensive measure recently proposed by Barron, Kim, Lim and Stevens (1998) , BKLS. The BKLS measure is related to uncertainty‐inducing events, as well as factors that affect the difficulty faced by analysts in forecasting earnings. We conclude that, first, pre‐disclosure uncertainty is a significant determinant of the price reaction to the earnings release, and second, BKLS is a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty than simple dispersion.     

Is Sell‐Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?

Because uncertainty is high in bad times, investors find it harder to assess firm prospects and hence should value analyst output more. However, higher uncertainty makes analysts’ tasks harder, so it is unclear whether analyst output is more valuable in bad times. We find that in bad times, analyst revisions have a larger stock‐price impact, earnings forecast errors per unit of uncertainty fall, and analyst reports are more frequent and longer. The increased impact of analysts is also more pronounced for harder‐to‐value firms. These results are consistent with analysts working harder and investors relying more on analysts in bad times.     

Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey

This survey starts by reviewing the literature investigating whether political connectedness of companies creates wealth for their shareholders. It then moves on to examine whether there is an association between the orientation of the political executive or the phase of the electoral cycle with movements of the stock market index. The price impact of politically-relevant events, such as wars, terrorist attacks, revolutions, coups or issuance of communications by those in positions of power is also discussed. The review closes with an examination of the impact of political uncertainty on stock markets and with a reflection on the direction of causality.     

Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles

We document cycles in corporate investment corresponding with the timing of national elections around the world. During election years, firms reduce investment expenditures by an average of 4.8% relative to nonelection years, controlling for growth opportunities and economic conditions. The magnitude of the investment cycles varies with different country and election characteristics. We investigate several potential explanations and find evidence supporting the hypothesis that political uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment expenditures until the electoral uncertainty is resolved. These findings suggest that political uncertainty is an important channel through which the political process affects real economic outcomes.     

Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news

We analyze the impact of domestic and US-based news announcements of a large set of economic and policy-related fundamentals on the US dollar versus the Turkish lira exchange rate from 2013 to 2016. Since exchange rate behavior is closely related to political trust, we also incorporate the effect of domestic and global political uncertainty, using country indices based on Google search results. Contrary to previous findings, our results reveal that surprises related to the domestic economy have a greater effect on the exchange rate compared to surprises related to the US economy. Most important are the surprises related to domestic inflation and monetary policy, as well as foreign employment, while political uncertainty plays a minor role. There is also an asymmetry in the market response. Bad news about the US economy has more impact than good news, and good news about the domestic economy has more impact than bad news.