Inconspicuousness and obfuscation: how large shareholders dynamically manipulate output and information for trading purposes

I model a large shareholder who can affect firm fundamentals. I demonstrate that the large shareholder amplifies the component of his private information that is unforecastable by uninformed traders and thus alters the fundamental value of the firm to facilitate his trading profits: he obfuscates. I then construct a continuous time dynamic version of the model using Fourier transform methods. In the dynamic model, the large shareholder does not just simply amplify the unforecastable part of the fundamental: he also alters its stochastic structure. The model thus marries market microstructure with real resource allocation. There are two consequences: (i) the large shareholder induces the fundamental value of the firm to more closely mimic the noise traders, and (ii) market liquidity is reduced.     

CDS as insurance: Leaky lifeboats in stormy seas

What market features of financial risk transfer exacerbate counterparty risk? To analyze this, we formulate a model which elucidates important differences between financial risk transfer and traditional insurance, using the example of Credit Default Swaps (CDS). We allow for (heterogeneous) insurer insolvency, which captures the possibility that relatively risky counterparties may exist in the market. Further, we find that stable insurers become less stable as the price of the contract decreases. The analysis includes insured parties that have heterogeneous motivations for purchasing CDS. For example, some may own the underlying asset and purchase CDS for risk management, while others buy these contracts purely for trading purposes. We show that traders will choose to contract with less stable insurers, resulting in higher counterparty risk in this market relative to that of traditional insurance; however, a regulatory policy that removes traders can, perversely, cause stable counterparties to become less stable. We conclude with two extensions of the model that consider a Central Counterparty (CCP) arrangement and the consequences of asymmetric information over insurer type.     

Trader see,trader do: How do (small) FX traders react to large counterparties’ trades?

We show that information about the counterparty of a trade affects the future trading decisions of individual traders. The effect is such that traders tend to reverse their order flow in line with the better-informed counterparties. Informed traders primarily incorporate their own private as well as publicly available information into prices, whereas uninformed traders mainly magnify the effect of the informed. This pattern of interaction among traders extends to different order types: traders treat their own and others’ market orders as more informative than limit orders.     

Macroeconomic risks of supply chain counterparties and corporate bond yield spreads

The domino phenomenon that corporate failures occur along supply chain during the recent financial tsunami shows the important effects of the systematic risk of a firm’s supply chain counterparties on its credit risk (or bond yield spreads). It motivates this research to investigate the effects of supply chain counterparties’ macroeconomic risks on corporate bond yield spreads by employing 10,022 American bond observations from 1997 to 2008. The empirical results show that the macroeconomic risks of a firm and its customers are significantly and positively related to the firm’s bond yield spreads while those of suppliers have insignificant effects.     

Dancing in the dark: post-trade anonymity,liquidity and informed trading

We analyze the impact of post-trade anonymity on liquidity and informed trading in an order driven stock market. The German stock market introduced the Central Counterparty (CCP) in March 2003 for German equities traded on its anonymous electronic trading platform Xetra leading to a major change in its existing transparency regime. Before the introduction trader IDs were revealed to the counterparties of a trade, with the introduction of the CCP even after the transaction the traders remain anonymous. Previous theoretical and empirical research documents that pre-trade anonymity results in increased liquidity, while results on post-trade anonymity are mixed. We find a significant increase in liquidity measured through a reduction of 25% in implicit transaction costs. We also document that the arrival rate of informed traders is reduced in the anonymous setting. Following recent findings of Bloomfield et al. (J Finan Econ 75:165–199, 2005) that informed traders take on the role of liquidity providers we interpret our findings as indication that informed traders change their behavior in providing liquidity more aggressively in an anonymous environment.     

Rhineland exit?

We argue in favor of the shareholder model of the firm because assigning the full surplus of the firm to shareholders provides the best possible social insurance by diversifying firm-specific risks on capital markets. Coordination in wage bargaining and collective norms on what is proper compensation play an important role in reducing the claim of workers on the firm’s surplus. In Denmark, workers bear less firm-specific risk than workers in the United States do. Collective action thus has an important role to play. Politicians, however, face the temptation to please voters and incumbent workers with short-run gains at the expense of exposing workers to firm-specific risks and reducing future job creation.     

Determinants of interest rate swap spreads

This study argues that an interest rate swap, as a non-redundant security, creates surplus which will be shared by swap counterparties to compensate their risks in swaps. This action in turns affects swap spreads. Analyzing the time series impacts of the changes of risks of swap counterparties on swap spreads, we conclude that both lower and higher rating bond spreads have positive impacts on swap spreads. We also derive a risk–spread relation to test if swap counterparties are firms with differential credit ratings. Since the risk allocation between swap counterparties varies over business cycles, hence this factor needs to be controlled. We conclude that (1) similar results hold if the business cycle factor is controlled and (2) swap spreads contain procyclical element and are less cyclical than lower credit rating bond spreads.     

ADVERSE CONTRACT INCENTIVES AND INVESTMENT BANKER REPUTATION: TARGET FIRM TENDER OFFER FEES

I measure the potential economic importance of fee-contract incentives and investment banker reputation as factors that can mitigate conflicts of interest between investment bankers and their target firm clients in tender offers. I find that the fee contracts used between target firms and their investment bankers contain incentives that can create substantial conflicts of interest. Simulated losses from these adverse incentives can be large—up to 16.7 percent of target firm value. I also find, however, that when investment banker reputation capital is included in the simulation, losses are substantially reduced.     

Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area

Central bankers frequently suggest that labor market reform may be beneficial for inflation management. This paper investigates this topic by simulating the effects of reductions in firing costs and unemployment benefits on inflation volatility in the Euro Area, using an estimated New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions. Qualitatively, changes in labor market policies alter the volatility of inflation in response to shocks, by affecting the volatility of the three components of real marginal costs (hiring costs, firing costs and wage costs). Quantitatively, we find, however, that neither policy is likely to have an important effect on inflation volatility, due to the small contribution of hiring and firing costs to inflation dynamics.     

The effect of learning by hiring on productivity

This article focuses on the phenomenon of interfirm labor mobility as a potential channel for knowledge transfer. Using data from the Danish employer‐employee register covering the period 1995–2005, we investigate how knowledge carriers—technicians and highly educated workers recruited from a donor firm—contribute to knowledge diffusion and enhanced productivity in the hiring (recipient) firm. Structural estimation of the hiring firms' production functions shows that the impact of the recruitment of knowledge carriers on a firm's value added is an increase of 1%–2%. Several robustness checks confirm this finding.     

On the marketing of IPOs

Derrien [2005. Journal of Finance 60, 487–521] and Ljungqvist et al. [2006. Journal of Business] build upon the work of Miller [1977. Journal of Finance 32, 1151–1168] and claim that issuers and the regular customers of investment bankers benefit from the presence of sentiment investors (noise traders) in the market for an initial public offering (IPO). Thus we argue that investment bankers have an incentive to promote an IPO to induce sentiment investors into the market for it. Consistent with this motivation and these models, we expect that the promotional efforts of investment bankers should influence the compensation of investment bankers, the valuation of an IPO, its initial returns and trading, the wealth gains of insider shareholders, and the likelihood that an issuer switches investment bankers for a subsequent seasoned equity offering. Examining data for a sample of IPOs from 1993 through 2000, we find evidence consistent with these predictions and so with the proposition that an investment banker's ability to market an IPO to sentiment investors is important.     

Firm size,information acquisition and price efficiency

We present a model in a competitive market where traders choose between a small and a large firm to acquire costly private information, but they also obtain free public information by observing equilibrium share prices. Our major finding is the existence of a noisy rational expectation competitive equilibrium, in which there are more informed traders of the large firm than those of the small firm. As a result, share prices of the large firm are more informative than those of the small firm. Our empirical study supports the analytical results. By using a bivariate vector autoregressive regression, we are able to conduct a variance decomposition of share prices for different size portfolios. We find that prices of large-size portfolios are more informative because non-value-related price shocks are less important in driving price changes of large-size portfolios than in the case of small-size portfolios.     

Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume

We investigate the informational role of volume and its applicability for technical analysis. We develop a new equilibrium model in which aggregate supply is fixed and traders receive signals with differing quality. We show that volume provides information on information quality that cannot be deduced from the price statistic. We show how volume, information precision, and price movements relate, and demonstrate how sequences of volume and prices can be informative. We also show that traders who use information contained in market statistics do better than traders who do not. Technical analysis thus arises as a natural component of the agents' learning process.     

Learning from a rival bank and lending boom

When bankers observe a rival winning in the interbank competition for lending to a firm, they infer that the firm may be more promising than they had thought. From this consideration, they loosen their creditworthiness tests and lower the interest rates they offer in the next lending competition for the firm. Increased interbank competition reduces the impact of this observational learning and decreases the credit risk taken by each bank because of a severe winner's curse, while it increases the aggregate risk taken by the entire banking sector.     

The Value of Central Clearing

I study a contracting innovation that suddenly insulated traders of hedging contracts against counterparty risk: central clearing counterparties (CCPs) for derivatives. The first CCP was created in Le Havre (France) in 1882, in the coffee futures market. Using triple difference-in-differences estimation, I show that central clearing changed the geography of trade flows Europe-wide, to the benefit of Le Havre. Inspecting the mechanism using trader-level data, I find that the CCP solved both a “missing market” problem and adverse selection issues. Central clearing also facilitated entry of new traders in the market. The successful contracting innovation quickly spread to other exchanges.     

Conflicts of interest on corporate boards: The effect of creditor-directors on acquisitions

This paper investigates the effects on acquisitions of creditor-director presence on corporate boards. Using a hand-collected dataset for boards of large U.S. corporations, we find that companies with creditor-directors are more likely to engage in acquisitions with attributes that are unfavorable to shareholders and favorable to creditors (more diversifying and fewer cash-financed acquisitions). Consistent with these patterns, acquisition announcements are associated with lower shareholder value, higher creditor value, and lower overall firm value when a creditor is present. These results support the hypothesis that conflicts of interest between shareholders and creditors can result in value-destroying acquisitions. In addition, commercial bankers with no lending relationship are not affected by conflicts of interest. Where appropriate, our estimation strategy takes into account that there may be self selection of bankers onto corporate boards.     

Market Making with Costly Monitoring: An Analysis of the SOES Controversy

This article presents a model of information monitoring andmarket making in a dealership market. We model how intensivelydealers monitor public information to avoid being picked offby professional day traders when monitoring is costly. Pricecompetition among dealers is hampered by their incentives toshare monitoring costs. The risk of being picked off by theday traders makes dealers more competitive. The interactionbetween these effects determines whether a firm quote rule improvestrading costs and price discovery. Our empirical results supportthe prediction that professional day traders prefer stocks withsmall spreads, but offer less support for the prediction thattheir trading leads to wider spreads.     

Comparative advertising: disclosing horizontal match information

Improved consumer information about horizontal aspects of products of similar quality leads to better consumer matching but also to higher prices, so consumer surplus can go up or down, while profits rise. With enough quality asymmetry, though, the higher‐quality (and hence larger) firm's price falls with more information, so both effects benefit consumers. This occurs when comparative advertising is used against a large firm by a small one. Comparative advertising, as it imparts more information, therefore helps consumers. Although it also improves the profitability of the small firm, overall welfare goes down because of the large loss to the attacked firm.     

Working for the enemy? The impact of investment banker job changes on deal flow

This paper examines the impact of job changes by prominent investment bankers on the M&A and equity market shares of investment banks. Using a hand-collected sample of job changes between 1998 and 2006, we find that after controlling for deal and bank-level characteristics, hiring a banker from an investment bank with a more prominent industry presence has a positive impact on both equity and M&A market share for the gaining bank and a negative impact on the losing bank's M&A market share. After the banker switches firms, we find a significant amount of business following the banker from the losing bank to the gaining bank, particularly when the relationship is strong between the client firm and the banker. Abnormal returns around the announcement of a banker changing employers are positive and significant for the gaining bank, suggesting that the market views banker additions as value increasing. Overall, our results suggest human capital is a critical component of investment banking deal flow.     

Oligopolistic equilibrium and financial constraints

We model a dynamic duopoly in which firms can potentially drive their rivals from the market. For some parameter values, the Cournot equilibrium outcome cannot be sustained in an infinitely repeated setting. In those cases, there is a Markov perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies in which one firm, eventually, will exit the market with probability one. Producer surplus in the maximum collusive outcome is greater under bankruptcy consideration, because the outcome that maximizes joint profits is skewed in favor of the more efficient firm. Consumer surplus and social welfare also increase in many cases, although those effects are generally ambiguous.