The “Euro Illusion”: Illusion or Fact?

The changeover to the euro elicited an upsurge of research on the effects of the new currency on consumers’ conversion strategies, price estimates, price evaluations, choices, and purchases. This research includes longitudinal surveys, interviews, and controlled experiments, both natural and in the laboratory. The present article starts with an overview of this research after which it more specifically focuses on research showing an influence of the nominal value, as expressed in different currencies, on price evaluations and consumer choice. For most countries, the transition to the euro led to a lower nominal value currency. A bias known as the “euro illusion” has been documented such that the subjective value of money is influenced in the direction of the nominal value (i.e., in most countries prices and salaries seem smaller when expressed in euros than in the old domestic currency). Although the term was coined in connection with the euro changeover, the nominal representation of a currency has been shown to influence the subjective value of money in unfamiliar currencies other than the euro. Thus, tourists travelling abroad may frequently be subject to such an illusion. Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for the euro illusion. One is the numerosity heuristic and another the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic in conjunction with biased conversion strategies. The size of the euro illusion is influenced by trade-offs between accuracy and effort. Consistent with this hypothesis, task importance, time constraints, familiarity with the conversion strategy, complexity of the conversion strategy, mood, and attitude towards the country or the currency all influence the size of the euro illusion.     

Development of Finns’ price knowledge after the changeover to the euro

This longitudinal study examines the 2002 changeover to the euro in Finland in order to find out how long it takes consumers to learn grocery prices in the new currency. We are especially interested in the influence of age on the process. We used price estimate data and market price data, with six data-collection points over 5 years, the first one just before the changeover and the last one 5 years after it. As expected, consumer price knowledge was clearly weaker immediately after the changeover than during the era of national currency. However, it has not improved significantly in 5 years. The probable reasons for the decreased price knowledge are the diminution of nominal values brought by the changeover (1 euro equals approximately 6 Finnish marks) and general indifference to prices, especially low ones, brought by the increasing standard of living.     

Price developments after a nominal shock: Benford's Law and psychological pricing after the euro introduction

Retail managers use psychological pricing to make the prices of goods appear to be just below a round number. The euro introduction in 2002, with its various exchange rates, distorted existing nominal price patterns while at the same time retaining real prices. We studied consumer prices before and after the introduction of the euro by using Benford's Law as a benchmark for price adjustments. Results indicate the usefulness of this benchmark for detecting irregularities in prices, and a clear trend towards psychological pricing after the nominal shock of the euro introduction. In addition, the tendency towards psychological prices results in different inflation rates in dependence of the price pattern.     

Does Monetary Integration Reduce Exchange Rate Pass‐Through?

There are several theoretical arguments for why the adoption of a common currency (either a currency union or a currency board) may reduce the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) to domestic consumer prices. This paper examines a broad panel of 101 countries over the period 1976–2006, using two‐stage instrumental‐variable estimation techniques in order to resolve the potential endogeneity problem. The main result is that ERPT indeed tends to decline in countries participating in a common currency arrangement. In particular, there has been a strong reduction in pass‐through in the member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) since the launch of the euro. Currency boards do not appear to be different from currency unions – both reduce the pass‐through from depreciation to inflation. Furthermore, the negative impact of common currencies on ERPT is at work in both high‐income and low‐income countries. Finally, most of the reduction in pass‐through to consumer prices under common currency arrangements happens somewhere along the pricing chain between the border and the supermarket shelf.     

Advertising effects on consumer welfare: Prices paid and liking for brands selected

The effect of advertising on consumer welfare has been the subject of dispute among economists, arising largely from disagreement among scholars regarding the persuasive versus the informative role of advertising. This paper reports two experiments that explore the welfare implications of advertising effects. Experiment 1 shows that the same advertisements can either increase or decrease prices paid for selected brands, depending on the degree to which the choice situation requires brands to be recalled in order to be considered. However, an increase in prices paid caused by advertising does not necessarily imply detrimental effects on consumer welfare. Experiment 2 shows that, even under circumstances in which differentiating advertising leads consumers to select brands with higher average prices, it can provide useful information to consumers that allows them to make purchases that are more in line with their personal tastes than are the choices of consumers not exposed to the advertisements.     

The Euro Illusion in Consumers’ Price Estimation: An Italian–Irish Comparison in the Third Year of the Euro

The euro illusion is a transient phenomenon that consists of currency-related asymmetries in the intuitive judgment of product prices made by consumers. The results of a cross-country study in the third year after the introduction of the euro show a strong price estimation asymmetry in a country with an extreme exchange rate (Italy) and a weaker effect in a country in which the nominal values of the new and the old currency are much closer (Ireland). These results rule out proposed explanations of the euro illusion in price estimation that assume the sole influence of plausible anchors (reference prices stored in memory within the plausible price range), supporting instead accounts also endorsing the role of implausible anchors (reference prices outside the plausible price range). Beyond contributing to our theoretical understanding of the euro illusion, this research starts to unveil the interplay between structural factors (i.e., the currency exchange rate) and psychological mechanisms that produce long-lasting difficulties for consumers after a monetary changeover.

Illusory Price Increases after the Euro Changeover in Germany: An Expectancy-Consistent Bias

The aim of the present report is to review research demonstrating the role played by expectations for observed illusory price increases after the euro introduction in Germany. In laboratory experiments when participants are asked to estimate price changes in a restaurant following the euro introduction, the price estimates are found to be biased in the direction of the expectation of rising prices. The research also examines the extent to which a similar judgment bias is evident in other areas and how interventions counteract the bias. A further focus of the research is on the underlying process. In this respect the results show that the bias is based on a selective outcome correction process not previously described. Theoretical implications and practical implications for consumer policy issues are highlighted.

The Euro Changeover and Numerical Intuition for Prices in the Old and New Currencies

This study examines how numerical intuition for prices in euros and in the Portuguese currency escudos developed in Portugal after the euro changeover. Estimates of prices of 40 different products were collected in the two currencies and at four different times from November 2001 to April 2004. The results regarding price estimates in euros were more in accordance with a relearning hypothesis considering that price estimates become progressively more accurate by a process that is related to purchase frequency. It was also suggested that this is a very slow process and that prices in the former currency are not simply forgotten. On the contrary, the escudos remained a general benchmark for an extended period. The results regarding estimated price intuition and use of intuition in estimating prices are also consistent with a slow adaptation process. Implications for future euro changeovers are discussed.     

Export prices,selection into exporting and market size: Evidence from China and India

This paper empirically analyses the export pricing behaviour of Chinese and Indian exporters when there is selection into exporting. Previous exchange rate pass-through estimates that did not take selection into account could be biased if selection into exporting is correlated with pricing strategy. We use 6-digit product-level data across high- and low-income export destinations over the period 1994–2007 and assess a number of determinants of the degree of pass-through of exchange rates to export prices, such as the level of external demand, exporter’s wage cost, degree of competition in export markets, currency volatility and the direction of currency movements. We find systematic differences in the pricing strategies of Chinese and Indian exporters while uncovering a selection bias in exports to high-income markets, although the pricing of exports to low-income markets is independent of the decision to export. Export prices do not increase systematically with the destination market per capita income, and tend to be less sensitive in shipments to advanced nations. Export prices of India are sensitive to the volatility of the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), indicating heterogeneity in prices to maintain competitiveness, but not in China as volatility is insignificant given a fixed currency system. It is also revealed that a country with a relatively flexible currency regime and arms-length trade such as India is more likely to exhibit incomplete pass-through, whereas a country with an inflexible currency system and involved in outward processing trade is more likely to have full pass-through as shown in the case of China.     

Understanding the Impact of Online Reviews on Customer Choice: A Probability Discounting Approach

This study uses the concept of probability discounting to understand the impact of online customer reviews on consumer choice. Probability discounting describes how the subjective value of an outcome alters when its delivery shifts from certain to uncertain. An experimental study with 29 participants was conducted. Participants were run through an online shopping scenario where they had to choose whether to buy a product from a Web shop with customer reviews on reliability or from a Web shop without reviews but with a lower product price. A titration procedure over sales price for the Web shop without reviews was run over seven probability conditions. The mean switching points where participants chose where to buy the product were extracted from the experimental data, and probability discounting factors were calculated. The results supported the assumption that online reviews indicate the probability of a successful transaction online and function as a guide to choices. Implications for marketers as well as suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Consumer Adaptation Strategies: From Austrian Shilling to the Euro

On 1st January 2002, in 12 countries of the European Union, euro notes and coins replaced existing national currencies. The currency changeover required citizens to adapt in various ways. They had to learn to handle new coins and notes, and evaluate prices in the new currency. Data on how these tasks were performed by Austrians are presented. In particular, Austrian consumers applied four different strategies to establish price intuition for the euro: a conversion strategy, an intuitive strategy, an anchor strategy, and a marker value strategy. Data on these strategies show that their application varies across socio-demographic characteristics, differs with purchase situations, relates to euro attitudes, and changes over time. Although the introduction of the euro took place about 5 years ago, the adaptation process is still ongoing.     

Opposing effects of sociodemographic variables on price knowledge

This paper examines the impact of sociodemographic variables (age, income, and occupation) on price memory. We argue that these variables may exert opposing effects on ability and motivation to process price information, explaining why prior literature has found inconclusive effects of sociodemographics on price knowledge. To tease apart the influence of ability and motivation on price processing, we report the results of a field experiment among 683 shoppers manipulating an ability-related variable (familiar or unfamiliar currency) and a motivation-related variable (normal or 50 % higher prices), and we measure willingness and accuracy to recall and recognize prices as a function of consumers’ age, income, and occupation. We find that consumers with the sociodemographic drivers of lower ability but higher motivation (older, less affluent, and lower occupational categories) have worse price memory, especially when the prices are expressed in an unfamiliar currency (the ability-related manipulation).     

Olfactory priming on consumer categorization,recall, and choice

Consumer choices are mostly regulated by pleasurable experiences that arise outside of the individuals' awareness in response to sensory attributes. This research examines the unconscious mechanism underlying consumers' behavior in response to odors applying the priming approach. Five experiments show that individuals' responses to odors involve two mechanisms, one affective (affective priming) and one associative (semantic priming) that impact consumers' categorization, recall, and choice. We found that when individuals perceive an odor as pleasant, their memory for odor-congruent brand logos (Experiment 1), and categorization of odor-congruent visual objects (Experiment 2) is improved. Unpleasant odors, instead, improve the categorization of odor-congruent visual objects only when they are made salient (Experiments 3 and 4). A pleasant odor diffused in the environment also drives consumers toward odor-congruent choices (Experiment 5), providing evidence that the incidental exposure to odors may induce affective and semantic associations with unrelated objects and behaviors. We also demonstrate that olfactory cues might be more effective than other modality (visual) stimuli to drive consumer responses. An implication for marketing is that odors employed in retail settings not only may induce an experience of pleasure but also promote specific consumer responses, such as categorization, recall, and choice.     

An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.     

Emotional Factors in Currency Perception

People may fill currencies with moral and emotional meanings and become attached to currencies in a similar way that they are attached to a brand. Such meanings and affective attachments to a currency may result in people’s resistance to proposed currency changes as well as playing a significant role in everyday consumer behaviour. Following Tajfel’s accentuation theory, it is shown in two studies that (1) opinions that prices in a currency (labelled an “expensive currency”) are high result in perception of prices in this currency as higher than prices in another currency, and that (2) positive affect attached to a currency results in perception of prices in this currency being higher than prices expressed in a currency which is not emotionally laden.     

Consumer price knowledge before and after the euro changeover

This article examines how the price knowledge of Finnish consumers has changed since the adoption of the euro. Our study measures price knowledge by comparing consumers’ price estimations with actual market prices at two points in time: before (October 2001) and after (March 2002) the changeover to the euro. Furthermore, we study potential differences between three different age groups. We approach the issue using four determinants, namely (1) response percentage (the percentage of respondents who were able to give a price estimate); (2) the difference between the median of the market prices and the median of the price evaluations; (3) the difference between the average of the market prices and the average of the price evaluations; and (4) the average of the absolute deviations between the average of product prices and consumer price evaluations. Our results indicate that, on average, consumers know the prices of grocery products quite well despite the prevailing dispersion of actual prices in the market. Price knowledge was found to be rather good both before and after the introduction of the euro. Nevertheless, the good price knowledge after the changeover was probably because consumers remembered the prices asked in the old currency and converted them to euros. The majority of respondents were able to give price estimates that were within the range of actual price dispersion in stores. The results also show some deterioration in price knowledge after the advent of the euro. There was variation between different age groups, and it seems that the introduction of the euro has affected various groups differently. Consumers aged 30–50 years knew prices best both before and after the euro, whereas the ability to estimate prices had declined most among consumers above 50 years after the euro changeover.     

Learning unit prices in a new currency

In the European Union, some citizens adapt to the Euro transition by converting the new currency to the old familiar one (‘re‐scaling’), whereas some adapt by learning the product prices in the Euro (‘re‐learning’). Employing a total of 65 undergraduates in two laboratory experiments, factors that may make such price learning difficult were identified. In Experiment 1, learning of unit prices for cellular phone calls from sequences of duration–price examples was more difficult when a fixed connection fee is added to the price of each call. Witnessing the adverse impact of price variation, Experiment 2 showed that simultaneous learning of several unit prices was less accurate than learning of single unit price.     

Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX

We compare the return–volatility relation for the euro currency to the equivalent relation for the equity market, examining the sign, symmetry, and strength of the relation. We employ the euro‐currency exchange‐traded fund (FXE) and its associated option implied volatility index (the EVZ), whereas previous studies only employ equities and/or realized volatility. The equity studies find a negative asymmetric return–volatility relation for implied volatility, with a strong relation when large market movements occur. We find that the euro return–volatility relation can possess either a positive or negative sign, is asymmetric, and has a weaker relation. Thus, the sign and strength of the euro relation differs from the equivalent equity relation. Our quantile regressions show that both the positive and negative contemporaneous returns of the euro result in increased volatility in the extreme quantiles of the conditional distribution, with the contemporaneous effect showing a stronger relation when the euro depreciates. We also find that the volume of the euro‐currency ETF options affects the return–volatility relation for the euro ETF. Overall, the results here expand the concept originally restricted to equities, with the surprising results that the return‐implied volatility relation is weaker and the asymmetric return sometimes is positive for the euro currency. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:74–92, 2014     

The Socio-Political Dimensions of the Currency: Implications for the Transition to the Euro

In the first section of this paper, the author demonstrates the crucial significance of anchoring symbolically a currency in the representation of a social whole, not least when practical and technical problems bound up with the creation of a new unit of account and the associated means of payment have to be addressed. In the second section of the paper, on the basis of this analysis, a number of practical implications for the transition to the euro are drawn. The analysis starts with the irreducible political and social dimensions of money related to its traditional public functions. The differentiation of modern societies gives to national currencies a regulatory role in insuring the social bond, as the same currency must be accepted in the public economy as well as in the private one. A series of conditions of legitimacy and confidence in the currency can then be drawn from its participation in the social regulation. To achieve legitimacy, every currency must on the one hand be an instrument that can provide the necessary credit for the development of production and trade and allow people to pay their debts to the public authorities, but it must also serve as a symbol of political belonging to a community. This last dimension of the currency is very often overlooked precisely because it is taken for granted. It is these political and symbolic dimensions of money which the transition to the euro now puts squarely on the centre stage.     

Intraday price‐reversal patterns in the currency futures market: The impact of the introduction of GLOBEX and the euro

This article assesses the intraday price‐reversal patterns of seven major currency futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over 1988–2003 after 1‐day returns and opening gaps. Significant intraday price‐reversal patterns are observed in five of the seven currency futures contracts, following large price changes. Additional tests are conducted in three subperiods (1988–1992, 1993–1998, and 1999–2003) to examine the impact of the introduction of electronic trading on GLOBEX in 1992 (to assess how a near 24‐hour trading session might impact the next‐day opening and closing futures prices) and the introduction of the euro in 1999 (to assess its impact on price predictability in other futures markets). It is found that the introduction of the GLOBEX in 1992 significantly reduced pricing errors in currency futures in the second subperiod, making the currency futures markets fairly efficient. However, the introduction of the new currency, the euro, and the disappearance of several European currencies in 1999, resulted in significant price patterns (mostly reversals and some persistence) in most of the currency futures, indicating inefficiencies in the third subperiod. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1089–1130, 2006