Information, Trading, and Product Market Interactions: Cross-sectional Implications of Informed Trading

I present a simple model of informed trading in which asset values are derived from imperfectly competitive product markets and private information events occur at individual firms. The model predicts that informed traders may have incentives to make information‐based trades in the stocks of competitors, especially when events occur at firms with large market shares. In the context of 759 earnings announcements, I use intraday transactions data to test the hypothesis that net order flow and returns in the stocks of nonannouncing competitors have information content for announcing firms.     

Reaction of Bank Stock Prices to Loan-Loss Reserve Announcements

Significant own and contagious stock-price effects of bank LLR announcements exist despite the fact that these accounting adjustments have no concurrent cash-flow implications. Consistent with expected information effects, negative abnormal returns surrounding LLR announcements tend to be much more important in the case of regional as opposed to money-center banks. Accounting measures of bank soundness, and possibly regulatory pressure, appear to influence the market's assessment of LLR information for both announcing and nonannouncing banks.     

Intraindustry information transfer: An analysis of research methods and additional evidence

This study analyzes estimators used in information transfer research. It concludes that tests which use the announcing firm's abnormal return to proxy for the information signal generally overstate the significance of information transfer due to cross-covariation of regression disturbances. However, some related approaches may actually understate information transfer. Another approach, based on direct estimation of the signal, yields an estimator that is less sensitive to assumptions about regression disturbances. This study also tests hypotheses concerning the influence of industry structure on information transfer, since the econometric analysis suggests that prior results concerning this issue should be interpreted with caution. The evidence indicates that transfers are most pronounced in homogeneous and concentrated industries.     

Risk and risk management of spillover effects: Evidence from the literature

In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the existing theoretical and empirical literature regarding spillover effects (effects of a crisis event in an announcing firm on other firms). In particular, we focus on the mechanism behind spillover effects and investigate factors that drive spillover effects. The results of our literature analysis show that spillover effects are most often significantly negative, that is, lead to losses in nonannouncing firms and depend on certain events and firm characteristics. On this basis, we derive implications for the risk management of spillover effects. Taking previous work on certain individual risk‐management measures into account, we are the first to provide a holistic spillover risk‐management process.     

Quarterly earnings announcements and intra-industry information transfer from the Pacific to the Atlantic

In this study, we explore intra-industry information transfer of quarterly earnings announcements for six major developed markets including the United States. Using an event study methodology, we find that the average cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of peer firms exhibit a positive and significant relationship with the CARs of announcing firms in the same country and industry over the three-day window surrounding quarterly earnings announcements. During periods of high past market volatility, earnings announcements demonstrate magnified information spillover effects on peer firms. Also, our results suggest that announcing firms with larger market capitalization generate greater intra-industry information transfer.     

Board Structure and Intragroup Propping: Evidence from Family Business Groups in Hong Kong

Using earnings announcement events made by group member firms in Hong Kong, this study examines the governance role of boards of directors in curbing propping activities within family business groups. We find that earnings released by group member firms affect the stock prices of their nonannouncing group peers in a manner consistent with intragroup propping. More importantly, this effect is less pronounced when the announcing firms have a larger board or a board with a higher proportion of independent directors, but more pronounced when they have an executive director from their controlling families acting as board chairperson. Furthermore, the monitoring effect of boards of directors is strengthened for firms subject to new regulations increasing board power. Our results suggest that board oversight can mitigate propping activities.     

Cost-based transfer pricing

This paper compares the performance of alternative cost-based transfer pricing methods. We adopt an incomplete contracting framework with asymmetric information at the trading stage. Transfer pricing guides intra-company trade and provides incentives for value-enhancing specific investments. We compare actual-cost transfer prices that include a markup over marginal costs with standard-cost transfer prices that are determined either by the central office ex ante (centralized standard-cost transfer pricing) or by the supplying division at the trading stage (reported standard-cost transfer pricing). For the actual-cost methods, we show that markups based on the joint contribution margin (contribution-margin transfer pricing) dominate purely additive markups (cost-plus transfer pricing). We obtain the following results. (1) Centralized standard-cost transfer pricing dominates the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face low cost uncertainty. (2) The actual-cost methods dominate the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face high cost uncertainty and later, at the trading stage, the buying division receives sufficient cost information. (3) Reported standard-cost transfer pricing dominates the other methods if the central office and the divisions ex ante face high cost uncertainty, and the buyer has insufficient cost information at the trading stage.     

Information transfer and firm‐level strategy

In this article, I examine a previously unexplored avenue for information transfer: similarities in firms’ strategies. This examination is based on the idea that information transfer is likely to be positively related to similarity in business activities. Drawing on the concept of generic strategies found in the strategy literature, I develop a measure of strategic distance between firms. Using this measure, I provide evidence that information transfer is positively related to the similarity of firms’ strategies. In addition, I find that this information transfer is strongest when the announcing firm is large or has persistent earnings.     

Conditional event studies,anticipation, and asymmetric information: the case of seasoned equity issues and pre-issue information releases

Information disclosed before equity issue announcements could reduce the price drops at the announcements by (1) reducing uncertainty about managers' private information, and/or (2) helping investors to anticipate the equity issues. To distinguish between these effects, we examine the determinants of firms' decisions to issue equity, and develop a conditional event-study procedure, based on Acharya [Acharya, S., 1988, A generalized econometric model and tests of a signaling hypothesis with two discrete signals, Journal of Finance, 43, 413–429.], that distinguishes between anticipation and asymmetric information. After controlling for differences in uncertainty across firms, we present evidence that stock split declarations, dividend announcements and earnings releases help investors to anticipate equity issues, but do not reduce asymmetric information.     

Investor and Analyst Reactions to Earnings Announcements of Related Firms: An Empirical Analysis

In this article I examine the response of investors and analysts of nonannouncing firms to the earnings report of the first announcers in the industry. The error in the earnings forecast of the first announcer is found to be informative about the errors in the contemporaneous earnings forecasts of subsequent announcers in the industry. However, investors and analysts do not appear to fully incorporate the information from the first announcers' news in their revised earnings expectations for subsequent announcers. This apparent underreaction to the first announcers' news leads to predictable stock returns for subsequent announcers in the days following the first announcement. Results of this study can be seen as further evidence of investor and analyst underreaction to publicly available information.     

Evidence on Risk Changes Around Audit Qualification and Qualification Withdrawal Announcements

Qualifications to an audit report may provide the basis for an auditor's claim that the user was warned about an unusual risk. If audit qualifications highlight changes in firm risk that are material, then the announcement of a qualification should be associated with an increase in the risk of the affected firm. In this paper, we test this proposition. Our initial tests do not detect a shift in systematic risk around qualification announcements; however, subsequent analysis shows that firms announcing recurring material uncertainties have higher levels of systematic risk than firms announcing initial qualifications. Furthermore, we document a significant decrease in systematic risk for firms publicly announcing qualification withdrawals. These results are consistent with announcements of qualification withdrawals providing more timely information to capital market participants than announcements of qualification issuances, which are more likely to have been pre-empted by alternative sources of information. Our findings also indicate that unsystematic, or firm-specific, risk changes significantly around qualification and withdrawal announcement dates. Although systematic risk is of primary importance to investors, information regarding company-specific risk may assist other outside users (i.e., lenders, regulators, employees, rating agencies, etc.) in evaluating a given firm's ability to satisfy its existing contracts. In total, this paper provides evidence that may be useful to many external parties regarding the association between the material uncertainties that are highlighted in audit reports and changes in firm risk.     

Intra-industry information transfers associated with earnings releases

The impact that a firm's earnings releases have on the stock prices of other firms in its industry is examined. For an identifiable sub-set of firms, the results are consistent with a significant information transfer occurring between the earnings release firm and the other firms in its industry. This subset is identified by examining the impact of the release on the stock price of the announcing firm. The magnitude of this impact is more significant for a sample of firms which have a larger percentage of their revenues in the same line of business as the earnings release firm vis-á-vis a sample with a lower percentage of their revenues from the same line of business. Alternative interpretations of the empirical results are also discussed. The research findings have implications for information content and market efficiency research and for research on policy issues associated with disclosure regulation.     

The effect of restatements on trading volume reactions to earnings announcements

This paper examines whether restatements affect trading volume reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. It closely follows the theoretical model developed by Kim and Verrecchia (J Account Econ 24:395–419, 1997) that decomposes the trading volume reactions around earnings announcements into the effects of pre-disclosure and event-period private information, and examines whether restatements change the trading volume reactions to earnings announcements in the post-restatement period. We find that restatements increase the degree of differential event-period information, leading to more divergent interpretation of earnings announcements subsequent to restatements. We also find that investors have less differential pre-disclosure private information in the post-restatement period, consistent with the view that investors’ beliefs converge when facing higher uncertainty in the information environment. Finally, focusing on irregularity restatement firms, we document that the effect of restatements on trading volume is more pronounced for firms announcing restatements after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act and after dismissing auditors and experiencing executive turnover. Overall, these results indicate that restatements affect investors’ behavior in forming judgments regarding earnings announcements.     

Properties of Accounting and Finance Information and Their Effects on the Performance of Bankers and Models in Predicting Company Failure

When the number of cues provided to a banker for a decision is increased it may (1) increase their information load (number of relevant cues), (2) increase their data load (number of irrelevant cues), and (3) reduce their uncertainty. Models, on the other hand, are not affected by information or data load. The results from this research show that as the number of cues provided to bankers increases, uncertainty reduces, data load increases, but information load is unaffected. The uncertainty reduction increases the decision accuracy of both the bankers and models. Due to the data load experienced by the bankers but not the models, the models have superior performance. The implications for future practice and research are discussed.     

The economic determinants of interest rate option smiles

We address three questions relating to the interest rate options market: What is the shape of the smile? What are the economic determinants of the shape of the smile? Do these determinants have predictive power for the future shape of the smile and vice versa? We investigate these issues using daily bid and ask prices of euro (€) interest rate caps/floors. We find a clear smile pattern in interest rate options. The shape of the smile varies over time and is affected in a dynamic manner by yield curve variables and the future uncertainty in the interest rate markets; it also has information about future aggregate default risk. Our findings are useful for the pricing, hedging and risk management of these derivatives.     

A TEST OF THE EASTERBROOK HYPOTHESIS REGARDING DIVIDEND PAYMENTS AND AGENCY COSTS

Easterbrook (1984) argues that dividend payments may be an ambiguous signal unless the market can distinguish growing firms from disinvesting firms. Shares of growing firms that announce both financing and dividend increases are predicted to rise more in value than shares of firms announcing a dividend increase alone. We examine the relation between prior financing activity and the market response to initial dividends and find evidence consistent with the Easterbrook agency cost model.     

CHANGES IN CAPITAL STRUCTURE,NEW EQUITY ISSUES,AND SCALE EFFECTS

This study determines the impact of a new issue of common stock on security holder wealth and the magnitude attributable to transaction costs, tax shield dilution, wealth transfers, and informational content. The empirical results indicate that shareholders of firms announcing new equity issues experience significant, abnormal, negative returns. The per share transaction cost accounts for 22.6 percent of the observed abnormal return. The tax shield dilution effect accounts for 7.8 percent. No evidence of a wealth transfer effect is found. Thus, approximately 70 percent of the abnormal return can be attributed to new unfavorable information that becomes available to the market.     

宏观经济信息与金融市场关联性——来自混频动态条件相关系数模型的证据

宏观经济信息是金融市场之间相互传递的重要信息内容,有效利用宏观经济信息是否有助于更好地理解金融市场关联性？为此,本文运用混频动态条件相关系数(DCC-MIDAS)模型分析了我国四个重要金融市场之间的动态相关性如何受到纳入的宏观经济信息的影响。结果发现:(1)工业增加值和货币供应量M2负向影响金融市场关联性,经济政策不确定性和通货膨胀水平反之。前三者是影响金融市场关联性较为重要的因素,而通货膨胀的重要性相对较低;(2)宏观经济信息作为市场关联性的长期成分相较基于市场信息的模型可以获得至少1.45%的效率提升。(3)工业增加值和通货膨胀对金融市场关联性的影响较为稳健,货币供应量M2和经济政策不确定性的影响表现出周期性特征。经济上行阶段工业增加值、货币政策信息带来的效率提升更为明显,经济下行阶段政策不确定性相对重要。本文研究结论对于加强金融监管协调和防范金融市场风险共振具有参考价值和指导意义。     

In name only: Information spillovers among Chinese firms with similar stock names during earnings announcements

We examine whether investors' attention on salient firm characteristics affects information spillovers during corporate earnings announcements. For market participants in China, the stock name is a salient feature of listed companies. We find that the market reaction of non-announcing firms to earnings reports of announcing firms is greater across firms with similar stock names. The incremental information spillovers among similarly named stocks are stronger for larger announcing firms and on days with fewer earnings announcements. The incremental information spillovers between similarly named stocks do not fully reverse in the post-announcement period, consistent with persistent investor behavior predicted by the salience theory. There are also significant return comovements among similarly named stocks. Our findings suggest that investors with limited attention are likely to focus on salient stock names and overestimate the economic connections between similarly name stocks. Our study extends the behavioral finance literature by showing how investors' attention on salient firm features can bias their reaction to unrelated peer disclosures.     

The debt market relevance of management earnings forecasts: evidence from before and during the credit crisis

We investigate the credit market’s response via changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads to management earnings forecasts and evaluate the importance of these forecasts relative to earnings news during the periods before and during the recent credit crisis. We document that credit markets react significantly to management forecast news and that the reactions to forecast news are stronger than to actual earnings news. Consistent with the asymmetric payoffs to debt holders, the forecast news is mainly relevant for firms with poor credit rating or announcing bad news. We also show that the relevance of management forecasts to credit markets is particularly strong during periods of high uncertainty, as experienced during the recent credit crisis.