浅谈失业统计对失业保险的作用和意义

失业保险可以切实有效的帮助家庭有困难的失业人员,是稳定就业、促进就业的重要手段.失业统计则是失业保险得以及时准确发放的重要依据和保障,使失业保险覆盖范围更广,发放更及时准确.     

隐性失业的经济分析与统计测算

政府公开的显性失业率无法准确反映真实的失业程度,本文通过隐性失业的理论分析,探讨隐性失业的统计涵义及其测算方法,为分析我国隐性失业水平和真实的失业程度提供定量依据。     

用失业指数预警社会失业现象的研究

利用失业指数替代失业率能比较准确、科学地反映社会失业的现实状况。文章通过失业指数计算的设计过程及其计算结果,对失业这一特定的,与经济密切相关的社会现象进行分析研究的基础上,建立了一整套监测、评价和预测未来失业变动状态的失业监测预警体系。     

改进就业与失业统计方法的探讨

本文针对我国就业与失业统计中存在的问题，按照现代经济理论和国际统计惯例，对就业、失业及相关范畴进行了理论分析，并对我国的就业、失业统计方法提出了改进意见     

论我国失业统计的主要问题及其完善

我国失业统计的主要一综合起来有两个：一是统计的失业率明显偏低，它是失业统计地域、求职活动规定、失业率计算口径、反映显性失业以及调查方法等综合影响的结果；二是其指标缺乏国际可比性，这是劳动年龄的规定、失业统计的对象等方面与国际惯例存在相当差异所致。对失业人口的重新界定是突破口；同时完善失业统计指标体系；并建立和完善以抽样调查为主、全面调查为辅的失业统计调查体系。     

论现阶段我国的反失业措施

失业率是国际上通行的衡量一个国家经济运行情况的重要指标。进入９０年代后，我国的城镇登记失业率一直呈稳步上升的趋势。１９９７年，城镇登记失业人数达到近６２０万人，登记失业率３．２％。由于统计方面的原因，上述数字还不能反映我国现阶段失业的真实情况。据有关...     

提升我国失业统计国际可比性的路径选择研究

进入二十一世纪以后，我国经济在国际的影响力越来越大，在国际市场的话语权分量也越来越重。即使在全球金融危机的影响下，我国经济依然一枝独秀，保持强劲的增长态势。但是伴随我国就业市场不断饱和，失业问题逐渐成为影响我国经济社会发展的关键，失业直接关系到经济稳定与社会和谐，长期以来我国仅仅公布城镇登记失业率，在反映我国真实失业现状方面存在很大缺陷，与国际统计体系的可比性一直较低。因此本文以我国失业统计体系为基础，与国际通行失业统计体系进行理论研究与实证研究，为提升我国失业统计的国际可比性提供借鉴。     

2000亿失业保险金为何花不出去？

失业保险金结存偏高了。据中央财经大学中国社保研究中心统计，2011年全国失业保险金收入923．0747亿元，累计结余2240．2118亿元。《经济》记者采访中发现，结存偏高的失业保险金，并不是我国就业现状的真实反映。真正需要这笔钱的失业人员，却与之无缘。目前，失业保险金制度的作用在减退。     

解决我国失业问题的思路

<正> 失业,作为现代经济生活中的一种普遍现象,其产生具有客观必然性。社会制度的不同并不能消除失业。1、对我国失业现状的估计据预测,今后十年,我国人口增长仍处于高峰期,平均每年新增劳动力将超过性失业、结构性失业、摩擦性失业、差额性失业、信息性失业、自愿性失业、地区性失业、隐蔽性失业、技术性失业等。就我国而言,在相当一段时间里解决失业问题的难点和重点应放在对差额性失业和隐蔽性失业上。差额性失业,简言之,     

布置实施调查失业率是经济社会发展的必然选择

实际失业人口和失业率是社会在一定时期内真实发生失业情况的客观反映,是统计工作中的基础指标,它们的准确性是经济学家做出劳动就业建议和政府进行就业决策的最基本前提。由于我国城镇登记失业统计在指标设定和方法上存在较大缺陷,已不能真实反映当前我国的实际失业情况。通过采取较为科学的调查失业率统计方法获得的调查失业人口,能够更加真实地反映当前我国城镇的实际失业情况,从而对政府制定宏观经济决策提供重要的依据。     

我国结构性失业的类型与对策

结构性失业逐渐成为我国失业问题的主要方面,研究结构性失业的类型有助于更好地解决我国的失业问题。我国结构性失业大体可以分为市场型结构性失业、制度型结构性失业和观念型结构性失业,前者又分为供给滞后型结构性失业、需求变动型结构性失业和机制不灵型结构性失业。根据不同的结构性失业类型,应采用有针对性的解决对策。     

Layoffs,recalls and unemployment duration: evidence from Sweden

The question addressed in this paper is whether the possibility of exit from unemployment to the previous employer affects the duration of unemployment spells in Sweden. The empirical analysis is performed using an employee–employer dataset that includes a number of enterprise characteristics and provides information on individual tenure. The econometric approach employs estimation of a competing risk duration model to distinguish between exits to the previous employer and exits to a new job. The findings suggest that greater tenure raises the risk of transition to the previous employer, while high education levels increase the risk of obtaining a new job. Moreover, the impact of benefit exhaustion is observed only for transitions to new employment.     

Cigarette demand and tax policy for race groups in South Africa

This paper calculates cigarette demand for race groups in South Africa. Elasticities are the most important information a tax policy analyst can have. Elasticities determine how the tax base will change with a change in the tax rate and thus how government revenues will respond to the tax. Elasticities also determine the excess burden that consumers will bear as a result of the tax. As such, own price, crossprice, and expenditure elasticities are calculated along with government revenue maximizing tax rates, and total and excess burdens. Parametric and semiparametric estimation techniques are used and compared. Results show that a tax on cigarettes will discourage nonsmokers from starting to smoke and mainly raise revenue from current smokers. Furthermore, it is found that consumption behaviours between groups are different implying different government revenue maximizing tax rates for each group affecting the distribution of income.     

知识失业--一个不容忽视的现象

随着我国高校扩招，知识失业现象在我国劳动力就业市场上正在浮现出来。这种现象的出现既与转轨时期特定的制度背景有关，又有社会有效需求不足的宏观经济矛盾和知识劳动供求总量与结构缺陷等方面的原因。     

工人离职、失业波动与失业保险文献评述

失业不仅涉及失业波动的影响,还包括在职工人的离队。为减少工人搜寻过程中产生的负外部性,应降低工人的信息成本。失业保险政策的实施又降低了失业工人再就业的激励性,应确立有效的失业保险水平,实现产出与社会福利的最大化。     

Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients

This article studies transitions out of unemployment for benefit recipients in Spain. We analyse the duration of unemployment, distinguishing between spells that end in recall (workers returning to the previous employer) and spells that end in exit to a new job. This distinction allows us to find that the recall hazard rate increases around the time of exhaustion of benefits. However, this happens only for workers receiving Unemployment Insurance (UI). Because we are unable to replicate this result for workers receiving Unemployment Assistance (UA), we believe the finding lends support to the hypothesis that in Spain firms and workers make a strategic use of UI.     

农业隐蔽失业模型的构建及其意义——基于劳动力数量和劳动时间双重的视角

基于劳动力数量和劳动时间双重视角构建隐蔽失业模型,分析农业劳动生产率和产出变化对各种隐蔽失业结构和数量产生的影响。结果显示:模型得出的结论与刘易斯理论一致,而与舒尔茨理论相反,政府可据此制定相关政策。     

1990年以来我国城镇真实失业率有多高?

我国政府一直没有公布城镇的真实失业率,而学者的估计往往在统计口径上不一致,方法上也还存在一定的缺陷。利用第五次人口普查资料,作了定量比较。以现有资料推算我国真实的失业率,失业人数调整法比失业率调整法更为科学,并通过线性回归法得到调节系数。我国目前城镇的真实失业率为8.8%,失业人员总量低幅增长,失业率已持续下降。     

Employment and asset prices

A medium-term relationship exists between share prices, normalized by labour productivity, and the rate of unemployment in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This helps explain decadal changes in mean unemployment, such as the shift to higher mean unemployment in the Continental European countries in the 1970s and 1980s that coincided with a fall in the level of share prices, as well as differences in mean unemployment between countries.     

Revisiting the Okun relationship

Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.