Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*

This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets.     

ASEAN‐5 bond market development: Where does it stand? Where is it going?

Since the late 1990s' Asian crisis, ASEAN‐5 countries have expended considerable effort in developing their bond markets. However, the size of these markets relative to GDP has hardly changed. Can we explain this? And does it mean that domestic markets have not, in fact, developed? The article argues that bond market growth has been held back by a sharp fall in business investment, which has left firms with little need for bond borrowing. Even so, markets have developed in other ways, to such an extent that substantial amounts of foreign portfolio investment have begun to flow into ASEAN‐5 bonds. These developments have important ramifications. With the investor base growing and infrastructure investment likely to rise, ASEAN‐5 bond markets could expand rapidly, holding out the prospect that the region could finally achieve ‘twin engine’ financial systems in the near future.     

Empirical study on intra-regional bond investment: an application to East Asia

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, bond market development has been one of the central pillars of financial cooperation in East Asia, with concerted efforts made by the East Asian economies to integrate regional bond markets. As a result, aggregate intra-regional bond investment expanded from US$49.56 billion in 2003 to US$352.18 billion in 2017. This paper examines the pattern and determinants of intra-regional bond investment in East Asia. We analyse regional foreign holdings of long-term and short-term bonds in eight East Asian economies. Bond market size turns out to be the main concern of regional foreign investors participating in East Asian long-term bond markets. This analysis also highlights the importance of bond issuance and bond yield volatility in attracting regional foreign short-term bond investment. Therefore, initiatives to improve regional bond market development may be crucial to stimulating intra-regional bond investment and in turn enhance East Asian financial stability.     

Cross‐border Mergers and Acquisitions and Financial Development: Evidence from Emerging Asia

This paper examines the relationship between cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and financial development in emerging Asian economies. Bilateral cross‐border M&A data for nine emerging Asian economies covering 2000–2009 are analyzed with a sample selection model and a panel data model. The estimation results show that although the banking sector still plays a crucial role in facilitating cross‐border M&A, the role of equity markets has increased in importance because, in addition to cash, the issuance of common stock and the exchange of stocks have become popular forms of payment for M&A deals. Because of the relatively thin market, the primary corporate bond market plays a limited role in supporting cross‐border M&A, which is in contrast to the primary public bond market. However, for the secondary market, the corporate bond market is more effective in facilitating cross‐border M&A. The results also show that financial development in terms of stock and bond markets in their home countries tends to become more important when the target firms reside in more developed countries. In addition to financial development, the paper shows that most cross‐border M&A are invested in technology‐related and resource‐based industries while cheap labor industries are relatively less attractive.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

Infrastructure Bond Markets Development in Asia: Challenges and Solutions

To sustain economic growth momentum, Asia needs to continue investing heavily in infrastructure such as roads, ports, and power plants. Financing the region’s huge demand for infrastructure investments is an essential issue for policy-makers across the region. Against the backdrop of expanding fiscal burdens of Asian governments and more stringent capital requirements on bank lending, local currency bonds can serve as an alternative for infrastructure financing in Asia. In this paper, we use empirical analysis to identify the major determinants of infrastructure bond market development. Evidence indicates that an economy’s size is positively related to infrastructure bond market development. Furthermore, we find that Project Bond Initiative, a European Union initiative, contributed significantly to infrastructure development in Europe. The implication for Asian policy-makers is that deepening regional integration of Asian bond markets would help Asian economies to reach an efficient economic scale to foster infrastructure bond market and policy measures in the forms of credit enhancement would facilitate issuance of infrastructure bonds.     

Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?

This paper investigates the influence of international capital flows on housing prices in eight Asian countries, including China. We focus on determining whether exchange rate arrangements and capital regulations influence capital inflows and housing prices. Our results show that an arrangement to restrain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and capital controls has the potential to raise housing prices in Asia. The strong prospect of the Chinese yuan's appreciation also pushed up housing prices in China. Another expected reason for the increase in capital inflows into Asian markets is the expansion of global liquidity. Such capital flows often have a sensitive reaction to market sentiment, and an increase in asset market volatility caused by the liquidity squeeze decreases Asian housing prices. These results suggest the need to review capital controls and future exchange rate system options for Asian countries.     

Municipal bonds as alternatives to PPPs: Facilitating direct municipal access to private capital

The advantages of using municipal bonds to finance urban infrastructure are becoming increasingly evident to policy makers in emerging economies, many of whom are making efforts to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets in their countries. Municipal bonds are sometimes viewed as a less expensive way of financing infrastructure than by public‐private partnerships (PPPs), or methods that maintain greater public control over projects and service provision. The objective of this article is to place current efforts by the South African government to promote municipal bond market development in an international context. This is done by briefly reviewing the advantages local governments experience by issuing municipal bonds to finance infrastructure; discussing some experiences of other countries in trying to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets; and reviewing the need and prospects for an active municipal debt market in South Africa. The article also examines the extent to which municipal bonds should be thought of as alternatives to PPPs in an emerging economy context.     

Who is the center of local currency Asian government bond markets?

This paper analyzes nine Asian government bond markets comprising Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, China, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia, in conjunction with the US, and determines the center market from among three candidates of Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Employing a multivariate GARCH model, we find that Singapore is the center defined as the market with largest comovements in yields with other local markets in terms of the dynamic conditional correlations, and with the largest effects on other local markets in terms of volatility spillovers. Neither Hong Kong nor Japan is the center.     

East Asian Export Competitiveness: New Measures and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates the remarkable competitiveness of East Asian countries in world export markets for manufactures and develops some policy implications, both for developed and other developing economies. Using constant market share analysis, applied to data for exports from three East Asian countries–Korea, China and Indonesia–to markets in the industrially advanced economies (IAEs), it shows that East Asian countries have increased their share, not merely in IAE imports, but in total IAE market sales at the expense of exporters from other countries and of domestic IAE producers.     

Changes in the socialist countries: Contents and prospects

Abstract

This paper examines volatility transmission and conditional correlations behaviour between the US and the Asian stock markets considering the effect of the Global Financial crisis. One Asian mature market and 10 emerging markets are included in the sample. To carry out the analysis, we use a multivariate asymmetric GARCH model. Results show that there exists volatility transmission between the US and the Asian markets. Moreover, it is found that, after the crisis, volatility transmission patterns have barely changed. Finally, results suggest that the lower the country‘s level of development, the lower the correlation with the USA.     

Stock Market Linkages in South–East Asia

The present paper examines the linkages between the South–East Asian stock markets following the opening of the stock markets in the 1990s. No evidence was found to indicate a long–run relationship among the South–East Asian stock markets over the period 1988–1997; however, correlation analyses indicate that the South–East Asian stock markets are becoming more integrated. The results from the time–varying parameter model also show that the stock market returns of Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand had all become more closely linked with that of Singapore.     

Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets

This article examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the East Asian equity markets since early 1990s and compares the ongoing crisis with earlier episodes. Using the forecast error variance decomposition from a vector autoregression, we derive return and volatility spillover indices over the rolling sub-sample windows. We show that there is substantial difference between the behavior of the East Asian return and volatility spillover indices over time. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the East Asian equity markets, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises, including the East Asian crisis. The fact that both return and volatility spillover indices reached their respective peaks during the current global financial crisis attests to the severity of the current episode.     

Developing ASEAN‐5 bond markets: what needs to be done?

This paper examines development challenges facing bond markets in the ASEAN‐5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). It first assesses their level of development, finding that bond market frameworks—that is, the quality of the physical infrastructure, monitoring, and regulation—compare favourably with those in other emerging markets. The paper then considers possible further enhancements, including changes in disclosure practices as well as reforms of ratings agencies, central bank liquidity management, and taxation. It also considers steps to develop derivatives markets, which in some countries remain quite small. Finally, the article draws lessons from the global financial crisis in developed markets for the future development of ASEAN‐5 markets.     

Corporate effective tax rates in Asian countries

This paper aims to (a) calculate Devereux and Griffith's (2003) forward-looking effective tax rates for 12 Asian countries over a span of 30 years, (b) show the impact of tax holidays on the effective tax rate in Asian countries, and (c) empirically explore the possibility of tax competition among Asian countries. Through relevant analyses, I arrive at three key conclusions. First, while small countries with little rent in domestic markets set their effective tax rates at almost zero, large countries maintain much higher effective tax rates. Second, for countries that have generous capital allowance systems, tax holidays may lead to a rise in not only the effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs), but also the effective average tax rates (EATRs). Third, some Asian countries may engage in tax competition, at least over the EATR, for a limited period of time. However, while some countries have raised their effective tax rates in recent years, others have continued with tax reductions. These results indicate that the recent tax interactions among Asian countries differ from the simpler interactions seen among the European countries.     

The Spatial Impact of Cultural Distances on Home Bias across Asian Emerging Markets

Using a set of individual country-pair data on cross-border equity transactions between seven Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia) in the years 2002–2012, we document that investors are more likely to show similar extent of home bias across Asian emerging markets than the developed markets. The spatial panel regression analysis indicates that the spillover effects of cultural and economic distances are more significant than the effect of geometric distance. Investors’ familiarity about Asian countries seems to influence the similar extent of home bias across Asian financial markets, while not so in the developed countries. In particular, the spatial spillover influences of risk associated with cultural and economic distances are more prominent among the Asian financial markets than the developed countries. Our home bias model can be spatially applied to not only different regions but also to different types of investors in international portfolio flows.     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

Intraregional Cross-holding of Reserve Currencies： A Proposal for Asia to Deal with the Global Reserve Risks

Economists have put forward various proposals to deal with the growing risks of the global reserve currency system. In this paper we recommend that Asian economies hold each other＇s currencies as part of their foreign reserves. Different from crisis-fighting currency swap arrangements or crisis-rescuing fund mechanisms, this mechanism means that reserves wouM be held, with a regular arrangement in place and on an ongoing basis. We propose that the global reserve system shouM be pushed in the direction of diversification, which could be a transitional step toward a new single reserve system. This mechanism would not necessitate any currency being a globally accepted reserve currency but would mean that every currency carried some weight in the reserve system. Establishment of such a system would require significant development of regional bond markets and facilitation of macroeconomic surveillance among the economies.     

Financial integration and consumption risk sharing in East Asia

This paper estimates the degree of consumption risk sharing and analyzes the channels of consumption risk sharing among the 10 East Asian countries. Estimation results show that a bulk of cross-sectional variance of GDP, about 80 percent, is not smoothed within the region which suggests that the degree of consumption risk sharing is far from complete and very low in the region. Capital markets play a minimal role and credit markets provide a positive but limited role. These results imply that the market channels do not function well in smoothing idiosyncratic output shocks. To be consistent, we also found that the potential welfare gains from consumption risk sharing within East Asia are quite large. Compared to the OECD countries, the degree of risk sharing achieved is lower and the potential gains are larger in the East Asian countries, but the degree of risk sharing and the potential gains are similar in relatively more developed East Asian countries.     

The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?

This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia – except for Mainland China – in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.