Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in East Asia: Generalized Impulse-Response Analysis

Using generalised impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the dynamic adjustment of real exchange rates to real shocks for a group of East Asian currencies. The analysis reveals that the fundamentals, or real factors, explain some, but not all, of the variations of real exchange rates, and that the different disturbances have different degrees of importance for each currency. Therefore, there is no universal panacea for fluctuations in real exchange rates. The findings leave considerable scope for policy intervention to mitigate the unfavourable effects.     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.     

Industry Policy in East Asia

This survey examines the role of industry policy in the industrialisation of East Asian economies since the early 1980s. The first section outlines the neoclassical' model and the interventionist literature that has arisen to challenge it. It distinguishes three strands in this literature: the 'structuralist' and the 'strategic' trade models and the 'fair trade' argument. The following sections evaluate the empirical evidence for Northeast and Southeast Asian economies, discuss the analytical and empirical validity of the interventionist literature and in conclusion draw attention to the diminished relevance of industry policy, given the rapid market-driven integration taking place in the Asian-Pacific region.     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia

Against the background of the rapid inter- and intra-regional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate a dynamic common factor model for output growth of 10 East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised economies. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. A number of external factors, such as the oil price and the JPY–USD exchange rate, appear to play a role in synchronising activity.     

Food Price Policy in East Asia

The primary objective of this survey is to examine the extent to which the available empirical literature suggests that economies of East Asia are following the policy trend of earlier industrialising economies in gradually changing from taxing to assisting food producers in the course of their economic development. More specifically, the survey attempts (a) to summarise the trends in agricultural incentives in East Asia; (b) to examine briefly the literature on motivations for those policy trends; and (c) to mention some of the future trade and policy implications.     

Revisiting output-price relations in East Asia

Why slower growth and high inflation can occur concurrently, while in other cases growth can be non-inflationary？ Why did aggregate demand policy sometime fail to work, given an orthogonal shock？ This study ponders on these queries by estimating the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves in four East Asian countries. Applying the Structural Vector Auto-Regression （SVAR） with the restrictions a-la Blanchard and Quah, it is revealed that while the AD and AS curves in most cases follow the textbook definitions, in some countries the AS curve is so fiat that demand expansion would have been effective to stimulate growth, and supply-based policies would be more desirable to control prices. We also found that during the crisis the supply shock played a more significant role in the price fluctuations, suggesting that focusing on AD management alone was not the best approach to take.     

东亚地区自由贸易协定进程中的日中竞争

近年来,东亚地区双边多边自由贸易协定加速发展,但拥有巨大合作潜力的中国和日本在探讨自由贸易协定方面却出现了相反的势头,日本不仅回避与中国建立自由贸易区,在东亚地区与中国展开了签署自由贸易协定的竞争,而且在中日关系不和谐的情况下继续制造矛盾。实际上,这些现象是日本实现政治军事大国战略目标的重要组成部分,其原因可以从日本外交政策中找到合乎逻辑的解释。     

后危机时期东亚货币合作的路线图

后危机时期,东亚经济体面临包括全球经济复苏具有极强的不稳定性、全球新流动性形成迫使东亚新兴经济体不得不应对资本流入的风险,以及国际金融体系面临全面改革等一系列外部风险。与此同时,东亚经济体较低的投资本土倾向,外汇储备管理难题等自身的金融脆弱性,强化了外部金融风险的影响力度。本文在评估东亚货币合作必要性的基础之上分析东亚现有区域合作机制的缺欠,提出东亚货币合作的未来路径。论文认为现阶段可行的步骤是,以储备库增资和机制多边化为契机,进一步强化区域流动性机制,并在中期建立区域货币基金;大力鼓励在区内贸易、投资和金融救助中使用本币,增加新的本币计价的区域债券发行;区域汇率政策协调可以设定为一个开放性的目标,在可行的范围内考虑联合行动的必要性。     

东亚经济周期同步性研究

本文首先通过B-B算法,考察东亚各国(地区)的经济周期。然后运用动态因子模型,提取东亚共同经济周期,并通过比较东亚各国(地区)和共同经济周期的关系,直观地判断同步性问题。最后通过B-B算法计算出来各国(地区)经济周期的数据,使用一致指数方法定量地衡量东亚各国(地区)经济周期间的同步性问题。     

The Digital Divide in East Asia

The concept of a 'digital divide'—inequality in access to modern information and communication technologies (ICTs) between industrialised and developing countries, and between urban and rural populations—has attracted much attention from policymakers, aid organisations, media and the general public. This paper places discussion of the digital divide in a broader economic context, linking it with the theory of economic growth and technological change. The network effects of diffusion of the Internet are related to the possibility of leap-frogging by latecomers. This is seen as a 'digital opportunity' presented to developing countries by the 'new economy'. This paper discusses the appropriate policy environment for bridging the digital divide, and concludes that the East Asian region has much to gain from the complementarities of its economies, their openness to trade in ICT products, and policy cooperation.     

Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis

Using a regime-switching regression model, we find evidence of synchronization between the Swiss-franc exchange rates of floating East Asian currencies and the Swiss-franc–Japanese-yen exchange rate over the period 1999–2006. The volatility of Swiss-franc–East-Asian currencies’ exchange rates is higher during the synchronization period than during the de-synchronization period. Contrary to traditional arguments concerning the yen-bloc, we find that the Export-Similarity Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment between Japan and East Asian countries are the two main determinants of yen-synchronization in the region. Finally, micro-structural analysis shows that the weeks of synchronization is greater when the yen is strong for Korea and Taiwan, but there are no asymmetric responses for Thailand, Indonesia, or the Philippines.     

东亚债券市场的新发展

债券市场发展滞后是东亚地区金融结构失衡的表现，是引发东南亚金融危机的重要原因之一。本文对金融危机后东亚各国(地区)债券市场新的发展情况进行了比较分析．以期为我国债券市场的发展提供一些启示。     

东亚区域经济整合的机遇与挑战——第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”综述

2005年11月24～25日,第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”在广西南宁市举办。本次论坛由综合开发研究院(中国·深圳)和日本综合研究开发机构共同主办,并得到了广西壮族自治区政府的大力支持。本次论坛的主题是“东亚区域经济整合:地区发展的新机遇”。来自日本、泰国、越南、菲律宾、新     

东亚区域合作赢取“弯道超车”

金融危机当下,贸易保护主义抬头。包括中国在内的东亚各经济体应抓住机遇,通过发展FTA加强区域合作,或许能迎来“弯道超车”的机会     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.