Capital Flows to Developing Countries Show Strong Drop

Net capital flows to developing countries fell to USS780 billion in 2008, reversing an upward trend that began in 2003 and peaked at US$1,222 billion in 2007, according to a new report from the World Bank. Particularly hard hit were private capital flows, which fell by almost 40%. All developing regions were affected, with emerging market economies in Europe and Central Asia experiencing the sharpest downturn.     

资本国际化进程及其给发展中国家带来的挑战

随着国家间经济联系的加强 ,资本国际化也经历了从无到有 ,从偶尔到经常 ,从少量到大规模的历史过程。资本国际化在提高全球资本配置效率的同时也给各个国家 ,特别是发展中国家带来了一些挑战 ,鉴于此 ,发展中国家既要善于利用资本国际化带来的机遇更要采取有针对性的政策措施防范资本国际化可能带来的冲击     

外商直接投资与发展中国家的人力资本发展

人力资本不仅仅影响一国内部经济增长,同时也和外部经济交往比如外商直接投资(FDI)存在互为补充的关系。FDI能够对东道国的人力资本发展起到重要作用,主要通过影响东道国的正规教育和在职培训提升东道国的人力资本水平;发展中国家要加大本国的教育投资;鼓励跨国公司的培训活动和实施吸引人才的制度;实现FDI、人力资本和技术外溢的良性循环。     

资本深化、生产率提高与中国二氧化碳排放变化——产业、区域、能源三维结构调整视角的因素分解分析

本文对中国1995-2007年间的二氧化碳排放按6个产业部门、30个省市自治区和3种能源种类进行了三维驱动因素分解,发现居民生活消费对碳排放的影响较低,未来应该围绕生产部门影响碳排放的主要因素进行碳减排政策设计,即通过转变资本驱动型的增长模式、提高能源生产率和资本生产率、优化能源结构和产业结构来切实实行碳减排.     

海外知识资本对技术进步的异质性溢出效应——基于G20国家面板数据的比较研究

本文将海外知识资本溢出渠道分为进口贸易、出口贸易、外商投资和对外投资,通过建立指标体系测算了G20国家1991-2010年间的国内外知识资本指数,在进行异质性检验的基础上运用组间FMOLS法对海外知识资本对各成员国技术进步的溢出效应进行了比较分析。研究结果表明:进口贸易、出口贸易、外商投资和对外投资是G20国家海外知识资本技术进步溢出的重要渠道,但不同成员国的技术进步溢出效应存在明显差异。我国出口贸易和外商投资中海外知识资本的技术进步溢出效应明显,但进口贸易和对外投资中海外知识资本的技术溢出效应还不太明显。我国应更加重视优进优出的贸易政策,更加重视优化进口贸易的商品结构,积极发展技术获取型对外直接投资。     

G20 Countries Are Seeking Exit Strategies

The 2-day G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting ended on June 5th in Busan, Republic of Korea. Although the countries agreed in the June 5 Communique that the world economy has been recovering faster than anticipated, they hold different standpoints on whether to put priority to economy stimulus or flscal austerity.     

Fixed Wages or Productivity Pay: Evidence from 15 EU Countries

A simple model of the firms' decision to pay workers productivity related pay is tested using individual worker level data from 15 EU member states. We find empirical support for the key hypotheses of Lazear type PRP models which relate to firm size and permanence of employment. Other issues such as the organisation of production and the nature of the product or service were found to be very peripheral to the use of PRP systems across countries.     

贸易因素和非贸易因素对发展中国家农业生产力的影响

自乌拉圭回合以来,全球农产品贸易开放程度逐步加深。然而在这一共同背景下,不同发展中国家的农业绩效出现显著差异。除了扩大农业贸易开放这一因素外,由发展中国家的文化、制度、经济环境等因素决定的国际竞争力高低等非贸易因素对农业绩效可能产生了重要影响。本文利用世界银行和FAO等国际机构发布的多国统计资料建立面板数据模型,检验影响发展中国家农业生产力的重要因素。结果表明,发展中国家的农业生产力由生产投入的数量和结构所决定,扩大贸易开放对农业生产力的影响方向主要取决于贸易格局的变化,而提高本国的竞争力和全球化水平有利于在开放的市场环境下提高农业生产力。     

发展中国家的资本流动约束及其经济效应分析

发展中国家普遍存在着资本流动约束的问题 ,它严重制约着发展中国家的经济发展。本文首先分析了发展中国家资本流动约束产生的结构根源 ,并对资本流动约束的损失效应进行了模型分析 ,最后对资本流动约束产生的融资效应、投资抑制等经济效应进行了分析。     

A Long-Term Decline Ahead

In the past three decades,China,as an emerging market,has attracted the great inflow of foreign investments.Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has also become an important tool promoting China's economic growth.Nevertheless,at present,FDI in China is continuously decreasing,which,on the one hand,indicates that the overseas investment capacity of foreign investors is declining,and on the other hand,shows the Chinese market is becoming less attractive for foreign investments.As a matter of fact,both the external and internal environment are posing a severe challenge on the FDI situation in China.     

资本跨国双向流动:理论与现实

近年来,在国际资本流动领域中出现了一个较为特殊的现象:发展中国家的资本流向发达国家,而发达国家的资本投向发展中国家,传统的国际投资理论难以对此做出有力的解释.文章对近期国外关于资本跨国双向流动的理论进行回顾,比较典型的有资产组合理论、超国民待遇理论和财富效应理论,在介绍这些理论的基础上,考察这些理论在中国的适用性,从而探索中国当前的资本跨国双向流动的理论成因.     

British Investment Banking and Industrial Decline before the Great War: A Case Study of Capital Outflow to Canadian Industry

The alleged anti-industrial bias of ‘the City’ is examined through a case study of a constellation of financial intermediaries that raised investment capital on the London market for Canadian manufacturing industry in the decade preceding the Great War. Reflecting the considerable institutional flexibility of the pre-war British capital market, these ‘investment banks’ ranged from established merchant banks to issue houses of recent origin as well as a few stockbroking firms and trust companies. All were eager to issue the securities of Canadian manufacturing enterprises despite the substantial risk associated with such business. Moreover, they were willing to take their profit in the common shares of such enterprises rather than cash commissions; although this increased the potential profit for servicing an industrial issue, it also escalated substantially the risk assumed in any single flotation, thus belying the image of British investment banks as traditional-bound and risk-adverse.     

资本市场与国际收支:来自工业化国家的经验数据

本文从理论和经验上论证了资本市场与国际收支的关系。通过分析18个工业化国家的经验数据得出:一国如果拥有一个发达的资本市场,往往吸引较多的国外资金通过证券投资大量流入,引起资本账户顺差,与之同时往往伴随着经常账户逆差。这一结论的政策含义是:发达的资本市场是一国合理利用外资的一个重要前提;与之同时,发达的资本市场可能是一国国际收支平衡过程中实现自我调节的缓冲器。我国多年来一直保持资本账户巨额顺差,但主要是通过FDI实现的,这种格局的形成也与我国资本市场的缺陷有关。对我国而言,建设一个发达的资本市场对我国国际收支管理有着多方面的积极意义。     

金砖四国2027年取代G7

<正>被称为"金砖四国"的巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国,会在2027年之前赶上G7国家的GDP总和。近日,中国总理温家宝向外界传递了一个信息,说他"有一点担心"。注意,他并不是是担心中国,而     

Cross‐border Economic Activities,Human Capital and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for OECD Countries

We study the growth effects of outward‐ori,ented econ,o,mies by using sto,chas,tic fron,tier anal,y,sis to mea,sure the effi,ciency exter,nal,i,ties of three forms of eco,n,omic cross‐bor,der activ,i,ties – inter,na,tional trade, for,eign direct invest,ment (FDI) and migra,tion – for OECD coun,tries. The study also exam,ines whether the effi,ciency of these cross‐bor,der activ,i,ties is affected by the level of human cap,i,tal in the host coun,try. We find that inter,na,tional trade and FDI are impor,tant chan,nels for improv,ing effi,ciency, as is human cap,i,tal accu,mu,la,tion, and that the positive effects of inter,na,tional trade, FDI, and migra,tion depend cru,cially on the level of accu,mu,lated human cap,i,tal. Our results show that the impact of human cap,i,tal is impor,tant for increas,ing effi,ciency via inter,na,tional trade flows and FDI flows, while immi,gra,tion into coun,tries that are richer in human cap,i,tal enhances their effi,ciency rel,a,tively more than immi,gra,tion into coun,tries with lower human cap,i,tal. These results remain robust to alter,nate mea,sures of human cap,i,tal, con,trols on edu,ca,tion lev,els among immi,grants, and to a non‐para,met,ric esti,ma,tion of the model.     

不同国籍航班对首都国际机场空气质量影响的研究

[目的]研究不同国籍航班旅客对首都国际机场空气质量的影响,为机场的空气质量监测工作提供科学依据。[方法]采用自然沉降法对2个国际航班所使用的廊桥和行李提取区旅客到达后空气中细菌总数、霉菌总数进行监测,并应用t检验进行比较;挑取可疑菌落培养、鉴定,比较2个国际航班细菌微生物的差异。[结果]2个国际航班使用的廊桥和行李提取区在旅客入境后,细菌总数、霉菌总数结果无显著性差异,但检出的细菌种类有所不同。[结论]首都国际机场不同国籍航班入境旅客给环境带来不同影响,口岸卫生部门应对不同国籍航班的空气质量给予关注,更好地控制疫病疫情的传入。     

IMF‐Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non‐defaulting Countries

International Monetary Fund (IMF)‐supported programmes catalyse private capital to non‐defaulting countries. We find the IMF to be effective in stimulating private capital flows to middle‐income countries that participate in a Fund programme, but do not restructure their debt. IMF‐supported programmes help non‐defaulting countries to signal their willingness to reform and repay debts, thereby catalysing private capital. This signalling role appears to be more important for Fund catalysis, than the size of IMF lending.