次贷危机的根源与出路

<正>弗里德曼是20世纪最伟大的经济学家,当代"新自由主义者"的主要倡导者之一。早在1956年,他在《货币数量论:一种重新描述》中就已经提出了纯货币需求理论。鉴于其在货币数量论上的杰出贡献,荣膺1976年的诺贝尔经济学奖。作为反通胀的旗手,弗里德曼与凯恩斯主义争战不休,最终在二战后全面确立其货币主义的地位,正因为如此,有人将弗里德曼奉为货币学派的祖师爷。他的一些经济学思想或许能给我们时下经历的全球金融海啸提供一些政策参考!     

金融危机下美国加大对华反补贴的深层根源分析

世界金融危机的爆发和全球经济的衰退,直接影响到全球贸易活动的萎缩,贸易保护主义兴起。尤其是美国开始频频对中国采取反补贴措施,将对中国的外贸和产业发展带来重要影响。本文提出:中美贸易顺差的不断扩大是美国加大对华反补贴的直接因素、中美之间产业分工格局导致不同产业贸易竞争力失衡是客观因素、美国贸易政策的政治化倾向是美国加大对华反补贴的特有背景、中国长期发展模式积累的弊端是引致国外反补贴的内在原因。     

经济全球化与危机背景下的贸易保护主义——历史脉络、根源与前瞻

虽然传统贸易理论一直推崇自由贸易的福利效应,但自国际贸易产生以来,贸易保护就如影随形。特别是在当前全球金融危机尚未消退之际,各国出台的一系列贸易保护措施对国际贸易形成了新的障碍和压力。为了更深入地理解和应对贸易保护主义行为,文章在对贸易保护主义理论产生发展的历史脉络进行梳理的基础上,从全球化、比较优势、经济危机及国家利益四个方面对其产生根源进行了剖析,并对其未来三大发展趋势和特点进行了理论前瞻。     

从美泰事件看“中国制造”的困境和出路

2007年夏季发生的美泰玩具召回事件,使中国制造面临严重危机和挑战。美泰事件发生的直接原因是中国制造存在着企业自主品牌缺失、产业结构失衡和监管政策不健全等内部问题,以及贸易摩擦加剧等外部挑战,中国制造的内忧外困是美泰事件产生的深层原因。因此,打造中国品牌、实现产业升级、加强产品质量管理和积极应对贸易摩擦是中国制造走出困境和摆脱美泰危机的必由之路。     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

零售商业全面开放下的产业安全危机及其消解

2004年12月11日,我国零售商业迎来了全面开放。零售商业作为国民经济的终端产业,国外跨国零售大企业的进入与占领可能带来国内产业安全危机隐患。如何在遵循市场经济的基本原则与世贸组织基本准则的前提下促进本国民族产业的生存与发展是目前我国面临的重大现实问题。本文认为单靠市场的力量不足以实现本土企业的规模化与效率化,必须同时大力发挥政府产业政策的引导作用,强化必要的产业扶持、引导与规制政策。     

简析中美贸易谈判中“核查和执行机制”的可能途径

在当前中美贸易谈判中,美国提出的核查和执行机制成为焦点问题之一。但是,下一步如中美达成协议,其核查和执行机制很难纳入多边,中美也无法签署双边任何经贸合作协定或自贸协定并包括这样的机制。为此,中美必须跳出当前双边贸易冲突的狭窄框架,着眼于国际经贸治理框架的大局和中美经贸合作的长远发展,来考虑中美之间经贸合作的长期机制性安排,并从中设计下一步中美协议的核查和执行机制。     

E-coli,Repo Madness,and the Financial Crisis

All bond prices plummeted (spreads rose) during the financial crisis, not just the prices of subprime-related bonds. These price declines were because of a banking panic in which institutional investors and firms refused to renew sale and repurchase agreements (repos)—short-term, collateralized, agreements that the U.S. Federal Reserve rightly used to count as money. Collateral for repos was, to a large extent, securitized bonds. Firms were forced to sell assets as a result of the banking panic, reducing all bond prices and creating losses. There is nothing mysterious or irrational about the panic. There were genuine fears about the locations of subprime risk concentrations among counterparties. This banking system (the “shadow” or “parallel” banking system)—repos based on securitization—is a genuine banking system, as large as the traditional, regulated banking system. It is of critical importance to the economy because it is the funding basis for the traditional banking system. Without it, traditional banks will not lend and credit will not be created.     

Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU

Diverging fiscal policy paths, housing booms and diverging unit labour costs were driving forces of rising intra-European current account imbalances, which were underpinned by low interest rates. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the adjustment of intra-EMU current account imbalances has been postponed by a rising divergence of TARGET2 balances, as the repatriation of private international credit and deposit flight from the crisis economies is intermediated by central bank credit. Given that this process has brought the Deutsche Bundesbank into a debtor position to the domestic financial system, the article discusses options for liquidity absorption by the Bundesbank to forestall asset price bubbles in Germany.     

加快增长模式转型是我国彻底走出危机的必由之路

本文分析了我国旧增长模式的主要弊端和经济发展方式转变效果不明显的原因;提出加快增长模式转型是我国彻底走出危机的必由之路,而实现增长模式转型的关键在于着力推进创新.文章指出,旧增长模式的主要弊端,在宏观经济层面上,主要体现为内外两方面的失衡,进而会导致货币的过度供应和流动性泛滥.我国经济发展方式转变效果不明显的原因,一是与旧的经济发展方式相配套的体制基础还顽固地在起作用,二是还没有能够建立起有利于创新和创业的经济、社会、文化、政治环境.转变经济发展方式的核心和基础,是摈弃靠自然资源和资本投入支撑的传统经济增长模式,采用靠效率提高驱动的增长模式.推进创新要关注两个问题:一是如何发挥小企业在创新中的关键作用,二是政府如何在技术创新上正确地发挥作用.     

The International Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Economics

The objective of this paper is to explore the correlation between the recent economic crisis and economic science and demystify the dogmatic conflict surrounding them. The paper starts by summarising the various arguments against economic science and economists, considered by many to be responsible for the crisis. Following that, an attempt is made, subject to space constraints, to objectively evaluate the individual arguments. Particular reference is made to the role of both policy and the markets in the crisis and the prospects for replacing the neoclassicist school, dominant until now, with the Keynesian. The analysis concludes that economic science did not cause the crisis; however, many of its theories did offer an intellectual background or some sort of academic legitimacy to both policy and the markets, and, in the case of the recent crisis, there was not only a failure of the dominant form of economic thought but, above all, of those two. The analysis shows that there is a problem of selective use of economic theories when it comes to practical economics and that, in order to be useful, economics ought to utilise knowledge from other disciplines and take more account of interdependencies between political and social phenomena.     

Organizational Wrongs,Moral Anger and the Temporality of Crisis

By engaging with multiple narratives of a police killing involving questionable legal procedures, known as a police encounter in India, we attempt to narrate stories of what happens to those who resist organizational wrongdoing by displaying moral anger against unethical actions. The State enables police encounters to occur by arguing that exceptional and alternate methods are required to engage with the crisis of terror and crime that the nation faces. Thus, police encounters are executed in the name of the collective morality of the greater common good. Those who resist police encounters argue from the standpoint of a democratic morality by suggesting that the very efficacy of democratic institutions will be eroded if encounters are normalized. We explore questions of organizational ethics from a temporal perspective while navigating between contending moral positions regarding police encounters.     

The Asian Crisis, the IMF and Dr Mahathir

While in the literature concerning the Asian crisis extensive coverage has been given to the course of events in the countries implementing IMF-supported programmes, scant attention has been paid to other countries that also suffered from the crisis. Potential alternatives to the IMF way of handling the crisis are thus in danger of being neglected. The project on which this paper is based was funded by the Indo-Dutch Program on Alternatives in Development (IDPAD) in collaboration with the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR).