FOREIGN NETWORKS AND EXPORTS: RESULTS FROM INDONESIAN PANEL DATA

Most firms and plants in developing countries produce only for the domestic market and few are able to export. One plausible hypothesis is that foreign networks decrease export costs and that plants with large amounts of such networks will be relatively likely to start exporting. We focus on two types of foreign networks: foreign ownership and imports of intermediate products. Our results suggest that plants in Indonesian manufacturing with any foreign ownership are substantially more likely to start exporting than wholly domestically owned plants. The results remain robust to alternative model specifications and after controlling for other plant characteristics. There is no effect on exports of imports of intermediate products.     

High-Tech Exports from Developing Countries: A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion?

Specialization in high-tech products is frequently used to capture technological intensity of exports. A number of developing countries are among the most deeply specialized countries in exports of these products. The paper shows that the bulk of high-tech exports can actually be attributed to the effect of international fragmentation of production in electronics on trade statistics. It is confirmed in an econometric framework that while indigenous technological capabilities are associated with export performance in electronics, it is the propensity to import electronics components that accounts for by far the largest proportion of cross-country differences in specialization in electronics exports. JEL no. F10, O10, O30     

Export spillover from foreign direct investment in China during pre- and post-WTO accession

This study investigates the effects of export spillover from foreign direct investment (FDI) before and after China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, with particular consideration of the FDI source country and firm ownership structure. It uses a Chinese manufacturing firm-level panel dataset, for the period 1998–2007. In general, there are no spillover effects among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This study finds negative horizontal and positive vertical spillovers associated with FDI from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan (HMT) among non-SOEs. Furthermore, non-HMT FDI, which is predominantly from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, have statistically significant positive horizontal and vertical spillover effects on the export performance of private Chinese firms. Positive forward spillovers occurred only after China joined the WTO, while positive backward spillovers existed during both the pre- and post-WTO periods. China’s entry into the WTO intensified the forward linkage of production, implying that greater availability of high-quality inputs produced by non-HMT foreign multinationals benefited the export performance of private domestic firms.     

Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

Trade policy uncertainty,development strategy,and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China

On the basis of new structural economics theory and heterogeneity of firm viability, this study analyzes the effect of trade policy uncertainty on firm export behavior using panel data of Chinese listed companies in the industrial sector. Empirical results show that the high uncertainty of trade policy significantly inhibits the extensive and intensive margins of firm export, while heterogeneity effect occurs across firms with different levels of viability. The development strategy that violates comparative advantage strengthens the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on firm export. Despite their correlation with viability, the type of ownership, total factor productivity, and long-term loan are not suitable proxies for firm viability. Under high uncertainty of trade policy, export market diversification can alleviate the restraining effect of development strategy on firm export, whereas firms in regions with high industrial-oriented development tend to be vulnerable to cost shocks, thus reducing export market diversification. Findings present important implications for emerging market countries to enact better international trade and economic policies.     

行业关联、外资进入与出口质量——来自中国企业的微观证据

外资合理利用对实现我国本土企业技术进步和转型升级具有重要意义,文章聚焦外资的行业关联从出口升级的视角再次探讨这一问题。文章运用中国工业企业数据库、海关统计数据库和投入产出表的匹配数据,从行业内水平溢出、产业间垂直关联等多个维度系统研究了外资进入对我国企业出口产品质量的影响。文章发现:(1)外资进入显著促进企业出口产品质量升级,外资水平溢出、前向关联和后向关联的质量提升效应均显著,其中后向关联效应最大。(2)外资水平溢出、前向关联和后向关联对企业出口产品质量提升的影响渠道分别通过研发效应、中间品投入效应和市场规模效应得以实现。(3)异质性结果表明,外资进入对非国有企业、一般贸易企业、东部地区企业以及与外资技术差距较小企业的出口质量提升作用更为突出。文章为外资利用与企业出口质量关系提供了更为丰富的微观证据和理论依据,能够为当前中国新一轮高水平对外开放下引资政策调整和优化提供一定的政策启示。     

知识产权保护、东道国特征与外商直接投资:一个跨国的经验研究

经济理论表明,加强知识产权保护强化了区位优势,使得跨国公司的所有权优势和内部化优势更加巩固,从而促使跨国公司以FDI方式代替出口贸易。但过强的知识产权保护又会降低跨国公司内部化的必要性,从而导致跨国公司以技术许可方式代替FDI。因此理论上,知识产权保护对FDI的影响是不确定的。为此,本文利用1976～2000年60个发展中国家的面板数据考察了知识产权保护对发展中国家FDI的影响。研究结果显示:加强知识产权保护对发展中国家FDI的影响受到经济发展水平、市场规模、吸收能力、开放政策、关税政策和制度质量等东道国特征的制约。知识产权保护对FDI的影响存在显著的行业特征:对于那些技术含量低或不易模仿的行业如劳动密集型和资本密集型行业,东道国知识产权保护强度对FDI的影响不显著;而对于那些技术含量高或较易模仿的行业如技术密集型行业,知识产权保护强度对FDI的影响非常显著。     

生产率是出口决定因素吗?——基于中国企业的实证分析

本文使用1999～2003年全国制造业企业调查数据实证分析影响中国企业出口的因素,特别是企业生产率对出口的贡献。为了得到有效的实证结果,我们采用了OP方法及动态面板GMM估计,特别控制了零贸易观测值产生的估计偏差。研究发现:企业规模、企业出口经验和企业生产率是影响中国企业出口行为的3个重要因素,其中企业规模是最重要的因素,企业生产率对出口的贡献要小于企业规模和企业出口经验,企业区位和外资企业虚拟变量也是影响企业出口的因素。研究表明,中国的出口扩张依赖于资源和劳动力投入而非依赖于企业生产率的提高,中国出口的增长是一种粗放型增长。     

Catching Up or Pulling Away: Intra-Industry Trade,Productivity Gaps and Heterogeneous Firms

In this paper we develop a heterogeneous firm, intra-industry trade model in which countries are asymmetric in both technology and size. In the trading equilibrium, the industry productivity levels countries are jointly determined by the technology gap and trade barriers. We find that the (exogenous) technological gap is a key determinant of the size and direction of the intra-industry resource reallocation introduced by trade. Most importantly, the effect of trade on the (endogenous) productivity gap could be non monotonic over time. In the short-run, where the number of incumbents cannot adjust to trade, the effect of import competition dominates and the productivity gap between countries is closed as domestic firms in the laggard country face tougher competition from leading country exporters. However, in the long run when entry is possible, the effect of the increased export opportunities in the leading country dominates and the productivity gap is widened as a consequence of entry in the technological leader.     

Trade Propensities and Foreign Ownership Shares in Indonesian Manufacturing

This paper examines the relationship between trade propensities and foreign ownership shares in Indonesian manufacturing in 1992 and 1994. Foreign plants had relatively high trade propensities, and plants with high foreign ownership shares had the highest export propensities. Differences in import propensities among foreign ownership groups were relatively small. It might be argued that trade propensities determine foreign ownership shares in Indonesia, which historically waives foreign ownership restrictions for firms that export much of their output. However, this paper argues that causation runs from foreign ownership shares to trade propensities, because multinational firms have strong incentives to restrict access by uncontrolled affiliates to their international marketing networks, and because the relationship persists even when the effects of policy distortions are accounted for. Correspondingly, ownership restrictions that discriminate among foreign ownership groups are likely to reduce the exports of foreign multinational affiliates, but to have a much weaker effect on imports.     

Technological effort and disembodied technology exports: An econometric analysis of inter-industry variations in India

This paper attempts a preliminary test of the determinants of Indian technological capability as measured by disembodied technology exports by a sample of the largest private-sector quoted companies in India. After placing the study in the context of research on the nature of technological activity in developing countries, the authors describe the variables which they have used to explain inter-industry variation in technology exports. The results of a preliminary statistical investigation are presented. Despite acknowledged limitations of data, the authors are able to suggest some interesting tendencies which could be the subject of further investigation: (a) formal R&D is a significant positive influence on the sort of technological development which is embodied in technology exports; (b) skill and scale requirements appear to promote technological development rather than retard it; (c) the presence of foreign ownership does not seem to inhibit technological development or technology exports.     

On technical efficiency of China's insurance industry after WTO accession

China joined the WTO in 2001 and has to fully open up its insurance market to foreign competitors by 2006. However, the domestic insurance market is overwhelmingly dominated by a few large state-owned or state-controlled firms. As the market is still underdeveloped and the demand for insurance is rising exponentially, there exists huge potential, opportunities as well as challenges for non-state, foreign and joint-venture insurance companies. Efficiency is a key concern of policy makers to encourage further development of the insurance industry. This paper focuses on this important issue. It uses a panel data set of 22 firms over the period 1999–2004 to evaluate their efficiency scores by applying a DEA approach and decompose the productivity growth into technical efficiency improvement and technological progress by constructing a Malmquist Index. It then employs an econometric model to identify the key determinants of efficiency. The empirical results suggest the direction of how to improve firm efficiency. It is found that firm size, ownership structure, mode of business and human capital are important factors affecting firm performance. The results shed important light on policy design and implementations on future development of the insurance industry with WTO obligations.     

Firm Efficiency in Cambodia's Garment Industry on the Eve of the Multi‐Fiber Arrangement Termination

Applying a frontier analysis to 2004 firm‐level data, the present paper investigates firm efficiency and its determinants for Cambodia's garment industry. The study finds that firm experience and remuneration are crucial for improving scale efficiency and overall technical efficiency, while effective use of capital and adequate labor‐skill development are important for enhancing a firm's technical capabilities. Foreign‐owned enterprises with a relatively larger share of foreign labor outperform local firms. However, the present study does not reveal evidence of any advantages of a cluster‐type concentration in Phnom Penh and export markets, nor of any positive impacts of product specialization. The findings imply a need to support skill development for workers and local managers at the middle management level, and to streamline foreign direct investment measures to attract greater numbers of efficient foreign enterprises, so as to promote the development of the garment industry as a whole.     

Firm heterogeneity,foreign market entry mode and ownership choice

We study the relationship between firm productivity, foreign market entry mode and affiliate ownership choice using Kolmogorov–Smirnov stochastic dominance tests on Japanese firm-level productivity and horizontal FDI data into 20 OECD countries during the period 1985–2001. We devote particular attention to different types of joint ventures to find that affiliate ownership increases with the parent firm's TFP.     

Innovation,learning, and exporting in China: Does R&D or a technology index matter?

This paper undertakes econometric analysis of innovation, learning, and exporting in automobiles and electronics firms in China using a large-scale 2003 dataset to identify the most appropriate innovation proxy. Drawing on recent literature on innovation and learning in developing countries, it tests two alternative proxies: (i) a technology index (TI) to capture a variety of minor activities involved in using imported technologies efficiently; and (ii) the research and development (R&D)-to-sales ratio, which represents formal technological efforts to create new products and processes, often at world frontiers. A higher TI increases the probability of exporting in both industries, while the R&D-to-sales ratio was not significant. Foreign ownership, technical manpower, and the characteristics of the general manager/chief executive officer also matter. The findings suggest that China's remarkable success in the export of automobiles and electronics since initiating an open-door foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in 1978 is linked to technology transfer from multinationals; systematic investments in and upgrading of minor technological activities (like search, engineering, quality management and design); and human capital. As China's per capita income rises over time, however, formal R&D activities are likely to become more important to sustain competitiveness and technological upgrading in automobiles and electronics.     

高技术行业上市公司高管薪酬与经营业绩研究

文章通过我国192家高技术行业上市公司面板数据的实证分析,发现其高管薪酬与公司业绩无显著相关性,与公司规模显著正相关,非公有制控制的公司高管薪酬高于公有制控制的公司,而股权激励比例偏低,高技术行业上市公司高管薪酬机制的有效性有待提高。建议提高高管薪酬水平,完善薪酬结构,积极加大股权激励力度,逐步降低国有持股比例。     

制造业投入服务化对企业价格加成率的影响:基于全球价值链视角

利用中国工业企业数据库与WIOD数据库,测算中国制造业出口内涵的服务投入增值率与企业价格加成率,实证检验全球价值链视角下的制造业投入服务化对企业价格加成率的影响。研究发现:从整体来看,全球价值链视角下的制造业投入服务化促进了企业价格加成率的提升。异质性检验表明,国内服务投入、运输、信息和通信,以及专业科学技术服务投入的增强有助于企业价格加成率的提升,制造业投入服务化对东部和中部地区、出口企业、民营和外资企业价格加成率的促进作用更强。进一步研究发现,成本降低和技术创新是制造业投入服务化提高企业价格加成率的可能渠道。     

Rise and Fall of Multinational Enterprises in Vietnam: Survival Analysis Using Census Data during 2000–2011*

This study examined the survival of multinational enterprises (MNE) in Vietnam during 2000–2011 using Cox hazard models. The characteristics and ownership structure of firms and the nationality of foreign partners are found to be associated with the probability of firm exit, with a firm having greater capital share of foreign partners surviving longer. An efficient local government requiring less time for bureaucratic procedures and inspections is found to be associated with a lower probability of MNE exiting. Meanwhile, transparency in business regulations and predictability in implementing central government policies accelerate the survival of highly competitive MNE.     

Direct foreign investment in Central American manufacturing

Transnational enterprises control approximately 30% of the manufacturing output of the Central American Common Market (CACM). This paper examines the phenomenon at the level of the individual firm. A positive relationship is found between the degree of foreign control of leading firms and the degree of seller concentration in local industries. Few significant differences are found between foreign-controlled firms and their domestic counterparts when size and product mix are held constant. Foreign-controlled firms do, however, export more to CACM countries, employ more administrative personnel at higher salaries, and use less capital per unit of output.     

Firm Productivity and Mode of Foreign Expansion: Evidence from Taiwanese Manufacturing Firms

This paper builds on the recent literature on firm heterogeneity in international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), and aims to empirically examine how firm productivity affects a firm’s foreign market entry strategy beyond the simple binary choice between exporting and FDI. Utilizing the panel data of Taiwanese manufacturing firms during 2002–2012, we further classify FDI methods by whole ownership or a joint venture to investigate a firm’s foreign expansion decision. By performing Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) tests, we find that if a firm is more productive, it is more likely to choose FDI rather than exporting. However, productivity of firms choosing whole ownership is not so different from choosing a joint venture. Furthermore, a more productive firm is more likely to conduct both whole ownership of the foreign subsidiary and a joint venture formation in the case of FDI.