估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析

人民币汇率制度改革的主要内容之一是为人民币汇率估算一个适度的弹性范围。本文在F-M模型的基础上构建了一个能够较好地拟合我国实际情况的汇率弹性估算模型，并利用这个模型对人民币汇率的弹性进行了实证分析。该模型没有将汇率制度进行机械的分类，而是将不同汇率制度下汇率的弹性看作是从0～1的连续分布。实证分析的结果是人民币汇率的弹性范围应该限定在围绕均衡汇率上下浮动12％以内。     

汇率制度与经济绩效关系实证研究的新视角

汇率制度与经济绩效的关系是一国进行汇率制度选择的重要依据。传统的研究方法是根据各国官方所宣称的法定汇率制度来探讨两者之间的关系。由于一国所宣称的汇率制度与其实际上所采用的汇率制度之间往往存在着较大的差异 ,一些经济学家提出以实际汇率制度作为计量标准 ,来分析不同汇率制度与经济绩效的关系。这一研究方法的提出不仅开辟了实证研究汇率制度与经济绩效关系的新视角 ,而且还促使人们对汇率制度选择的依据进行重新认识与思考。     

汇率制度选择理论研究

汇率制度选择是一国经济发展的重要议题,合适的汇率制度会促进一国经济的发展,不合适的汇率制度则可能导致金融危机.在当前我国经济快速发展、人民币升值加速的情况下,汇率制度选择问题的研究显得尤为重要.本文介绍了近年兴起的几种汇率制度选择理论,主要有蒙代尔--弗莱明模型、第一代货币危机模型、第二代货币危机模型和两极汇率制度理论等,并分析了这些理论之间的关系,最后特别指出蒙代尔--弗莱明模型在汇率制度选择理论中占有非常重要的地位.     

理性认识汇率的作用与趋势

汇率最初是基于世界各国贸易的需求而产生的,汇率与每个国家及个体息息相关。对于一个国家而言,汇率是本国经济的晴雨表,在国际贸易中扮演着重要角色,兼备政治和经济的双重属性。对个体而言,汇率既能通过期货等交易进行价值创造,又能满足人们的避险需求。本文不仅深入分析了汇率的历史演变、汇率的价值创造问题,而且深入探讨了汇率是否会随着经济的发展而消失等问题。笔者持续观察研判汇率市场的变化,不懈寻求探索汇率市场的规律,指导科学理性认识汇率的作用,引导感知汇率市场的变化趋势,从而做出明智的战略决策,取得更大的经济效益。     

汇率与外贸进出口

一、汇率政策选择的含义及汇率政策目标 1、一国在采取什么样的汇率,政策上可以有多种选择.按照浮动程度,划分为固定汇率与浮动汇率,在固定汇率中分为调整钉住和爬行钉住;而在浮动汇率中分为管理浮动和自由浮动.理论上看,在资本流动条件下,浮动汇率有助于保持货币政策的独立性,而固定汇率则削弱了中央银行在货币政策上的自主性.但在各国实践中,汇率的浮动性的选择有所不同,结果也不尽相同.国际经验表明,汇率浮动程度的选择并无绝对的优劣可言.一国汇率制度的选择主要应与本国的经济与金融结构相适应,并有利于实现该国的汇率政策目标.     

金融全球化下汇率制度的选择

我国作为一个发展中国家,在开放金融体制的过程中面临着应选择哪一种汇率机制来有效地调节外汇供求关系,以便避免金融风险的问题。本文从汇率制度的选择理论及我国现行的汇率制度出发,分析其利弊,建议我国应根据国际经济环境的不同和对应货币的不同制定动态汇率目标区,从而建立一套有助于我国经济发展的汇率制度。     

探讨人民币双重汇率制度时期(1981～1993)

自1949年新中国成立以来,我国先后经历了单一的汇率制度时期、双轨汇率制度时期和相对稳定的汇率制度时期。2008年金融危机以来,尤其是随之引发的欧债危机爆发以后,人民币汇率制度不断受到来自各方面的压力,在现阶段重温我国的汇率史,对我们处理现在的人民币汇率问题具有一定的启示作用。本文分两个阶段探讨1981～1993年我国的双重汇率制度实施情况。     

汇率政策、货币政策与财政政策——浅析当前汇率制度下中国的货币政策效应

在中国当前的汇率制度下,外汇储备持续增加,使得基础货币投放量被动增加,进而导致了经济中流动性过剩问题。提高货币政策独立性的根本途径在于汇率制度改革:完善中国汇率形成的市场机制,培育相对均衡汇率;深化中国外汇管理体制改革,有序开放资本市场;汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革配合协调。     

我国汇率制度选择与改革建议

汇率制度选择直接关系一国的经济稳定,在全球金融一体化的背景下,通过对我国现行的人民币汇率制度的运行效果分析,我国汇率制度存在一定缺陷。为了更好的适应国际金融发展形势,我国应对现行汇率制度进行战略性调整,推动汇率的市场化进程。     

人民币现行汇率制度存在问题与对策分析

汇率选择问题基本上为固定或者浮动之争,虽然国际学术界并无定论。但是在不同的宏观经济发展阶段,需要不同的汇率制度搭配。本文在梳理我国宏观经济与汇率制度下,寻找现行人民币汇率存在问题,并提出相关政策建议。     

Gift exchange in the workplace

Certain altruistic phenomena in the workplace that exceed the bounds of contract theory can be explained within the framework of gift exchange theory. We discuss the application of gift exchange theory to interactions between an employer and an employee as well as between employees themselves. We emphasize the opportunities of gifts to improve coordination and contract efficiency in the workplace and argue that there exists the productive function of gifts. We use the framework of a market for externalities in order to demonstrate that given the inter-related activities of agents a gift exchange between them can lead to Pareto improvement.     

Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates

Currency volatility is defined to be the standard deviation of day-to-day changes in the logarithm of the exchange rate. After a discussion of statistical models for exchange rates, the paper describes methods for choosing and assessing volatility forecasts using open, high, low and close prices. Results for DM/$ futures prices at the IMM in Chicago from 1977 to 1983 show high and low prices are valuable when seeking accurate volatility forecasts. The best forecasts are a weighted average of present and past high, low and close prices, with adjustments for weekend and holiday effects. The forecasts can be used to value currency options.     

Kidney exchange: Further utilization of donors via listed exchange

There is a set of incompatible patient–donor pairs and these pairs are matched pairwise. A match between two pairs corresponds to a paired kidney donation, where pairs exchange donated kidneys, or a paired listed exchange, where the first donor donates a kidney to the deceased donor wait-list, the first patient receives the kidney of the second donor, and the second patient receives a priority on the wait-list. We characterize the set of exchanges with the maximum number of transplants from the set of pairs. This characterization generalizes the well-known Gallai–Edmonds Decomposition Theorem.     

Non-linear,hybrid exchange rate modeling and trading profitability in the foreign exchange market

A neuro-fuzzy decision-making technology is designed and implemented to obtain the optimal daily currency trading rule. It is found that a non-linear, artificial neural network exchange rate microstructure (hybrid) model combined with a fuzzy logic controller generates a set of trading strategies that earn a higher rate of return compared to the simple buy-and-hold strategy. After accounting for realistic transaction costs, the gains from utilizing a dynamic, neuro-fuzzy model are still present.     

exchange rates and the liverpool six

Professor Tim Congdon, 'the sage of Lombard Street', reviews the possible exchange rate regimes for a medium sized country such as Britain and relates them to the arguments of the 'Liverpool Six'.     

Stable processes of exchange

In this paper we address a long standing gap in economic theory—the gap between claims for the dynamic efficiency of trading in markets, and the findings of formal economic theory, which justify those claims only under restrictive assumptions. We use agent-based methods to study the dynamics of exchange with trading agents who are characterized by several different preference relations. We see that outcomes converge with high probability to Pareto optima in the cases studied, including the well-known example due to Scarf.     

China''s exchange rate and the balance of trade

This paper examines the responsiveness of the balance of trade of the People's Republic of China to the real exchange rate. We find that, in both the short-run and the long-run, devaluation serves to improve the balance of trade. Using quarterly data for 1980:I to 1989:IV we show that the bulk of the response to devaluation occurs over a one year period, with noJ-curve effect. These results suggest that the two-tier price system and other measures to liberalize the Chinese economy have made the exchange rate an effective indirect tool for regulating trade.     

Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.     

Small firms and the governance of interorganizational exchange

This article explores some new concepts concerned with the coordination of environmental exchange in small firms. The management of communicative networks is presented as a method supplementary to market steering and administrative coordination of exchange relations. The article is based on the results of in-depth studies of 20 sets of inter-organizational relations in five small firms. The results suggest that the building, maintainance and decoupling of the personal relations in a communicative network affects the costs associated with environmental exchange. Communicative networks make it possible to operate at a higher level of system complexity without increasing the transactions costs or losing any of the small-scale advantages of small firms. In this study the difference between discrete instrumental action and communicative action occupies a central place. Communicative action in networks is based on rationality norms that differ from the pure instrumental action patterns of the marketplace. The manager has to act in accordance with the different personal life spheres of the actors involved. The implications for leader competence managing this kind of relations are discussed.     

A forward looking model of the exchange rate

This paper outlines a simple framework for testing some of the underlying concepts which form the basis of a number of recent models of exchange rate determination. It estimates a structural exchange rate equation with explicit forward expectations using the Wickens errors-in-variables method. The paper finds a strong rejection of the simple open arbitrage model in favour of a more complex model.