Financial openness,disclosure and bank risk-taking in MENA countries

In this paper, we analyze the risk-taking behavior of banks in emerging economies in a context of international capital mobility. Our paper highlights a new channel through which depositors can exercise pressure to control risk-taking. Depositors can reallocate their savings away from their home country to the more protective system of a developed economy. We recover a classical result according to which increased competition resulting from more international financial openness induces banks to take excessive risks. We find however that sufficiently high financial openness is necessary for a positive link between financial transparency and safe risk management. Finally, we test the relationship between disclosure, financial openness and bank risk-taking for a panel of 258 banks from the MENA region and Turkey.     

A new approach to financial integration and market income inequality

Using loan contracts of firms in the syndicated loan market, we generate weighted aggregate measures of financial connections of emerging market economies and relate these financial integration indices to income inequality. The results reveal that financial integration is beneficial in reducing market income inequality, but worsens net income inequality. Financial intermediation is detrimental to net income inequality, but beneficial in lowering market income inequality. The results show that independent access to financing has no relationship with income inequality. The results are invariant using alternative income inequality indices and using external instrument against internal instrument in identifying the equations.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

Trade openness and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of institutional structures

This article examines the role of institutional structures in the relationship between trade openness and financial development in sub-Saharan economies. The study is based on empirical data from sampled sub-Saharan African countries for a period of 1996–2017. The system generalized method of moment was employed to estimate the models. The findings suggest that, even though trade openness has a positive significant influence on the level of financial development in sub-Saharan African economies, this relationship is enhanced through the presence of good institutions in these economies. Thus, for these economies to realize the full benefit of the effect of trade openness on financial development, they need to strengthen their institutions.     

Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors

This paper empirically examines the determinants of domestic credit expansion across a wide range of 24 emerging market economies. We use a dynamic panel data estimation technique to investigate the short-run and long-run effects of internal demand and external supply factors, external balance, different measures of trade openness and global uncertainty on domestic credit. We find that loose monetary policy in the domestic market, differences between domestic and global lending rates and real trade openness positively contribute to domestic credit levels. The findings also show that external balance and perceptions of global tail risk negatively affect domestic credit levels.     

The interest group theory of financial development in China: Openness and the role of interest groups

The interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents' opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows. Based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness, existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings. This paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for China. Using Chinese cross-province data, we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state-owned enterprises and local government in China. The empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone. However, the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness. These results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross-province differences and time-series variation in financial development in China.     

Zero‐interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets

Since 2009, central banks in the major advanced economies have held interest rates at very low levels to stabilise financial markets and support the recovery of their economies. This paper outlines the unintended consequences of the prolonged period of very low world funding interest rates in emerging markets. The paper is informed by a Mises–Hayek‐BIS view on credit booms and Mises' law of unintended consequences. Consistent with the presented credit boom view, I provide evidence that the very low world funding interest rates are associated with a rise in volatile capital flows and asset market bubbles in fast‐growing emerging markets. In line with Mises' law, I further show that these unintended consequences give rise to a new wave of interventionism as policymakers in emerging markets increasingly reintroduce financially repressive measures to isolate the economies from foreign capital inflows.     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

Determinants of FDI inflows to Arab economies

The paper studies location determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to 16 Arab economies over the period from 1984 to 2012, by employing Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond linear dynamic panel data estimation. We find that market size, trade openness, preferential trade agreements and financial development have significant positive impact on FDI inflows to Arab economies. FDI in Arab economies appears to be resource seeking since the total oil supply variable is positive and significant. The paper finds that better institutions and educated labour force may play a key role in attracting FDI inflows. We suggest that Arab economies should sequence their economic policy measures with the institutional ones, beginning with a focus on privatization and trade liberalization, and subsequently shift to improvement in economic growth.     

The impact of trade openness on the unemployment rate in G7 countries

Recent and ongoing literature strongly implies the existence of a significant and robust impact of trade openness (liberalisation) and globalisation on unemployment, particularly in developed economies. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of four different measures of trade openness and globalisation on the unemployment rate in an unbalanced panel framework. The analysis focuses on the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). Robust empirical findings from panel data estimates demonstrate that, along with macroeconomic indicators and market size, all the measures of trade openness and globalisation are significantly and negatively associated with the unemployment rate. Therefore, we conclude that the continuation of the globalisation process instead of protectionism is of great importance in reducing the unemployment rate in developed economies.     

Corporate governance,bank concentration and economic growth

We examine the effects of bank concentration and corporate governance among firms in terms of economic growth using panel data for 34 countries and 29 manufacturing sectors over the period 1980–2010. We show the following results: First, bank concentration exerts a negative effect on growth for industries that are most dependent on external financing. However, for countries with a high level of corporate governance bank concentration is less harmful to economic growth. Our results have important policy implications for emerging markets. Most importantly, they suggest that high corporate governance is a crucial means for promoting growth and prosperity in developing and emerging economies, in which we commonly observe under-developed financial sectors and high levels of bank concentration.     

Does Globalisation Affect Crime? Theory and Evidence

Globalisation sceptics argue that trade liberalisation has high social costs, including an increase in expropriative behaviour such as civil conflict, coercion of labour and crime. We show that a theoretical relationship between trade and expropriation exists, but the sign differs for developed and developing economies. We verify this empirically using data on crime rates. Specifically, we find that trade liberalisation, as measured by both higher openness and lower import duty rates, tends to increase burglaries and theft in very labour‐abundant countries. For other countries, however, we find that trade liberalisation has either a small negative effect on crime or no effect, depending on the country's capital abundance.     

中国服务贸易开放度研究

入世前中国在入世议定书中对服务贸易的开放作出了相关承诺。如今中国入世已近10年,服务贸易对外开放的进展情况如何?本文就这个问题采用修正过的对外贸易比率法进行了实证研究,并用同样的方法研究了美国的服务贸易开放度,然后对中美服务贸易开放度进行了比较。研究结果表明,中国服务贸易处于一个相对较高的水平,服务贸易开放的现状与我国入世承诺基本一致。     

WTO贸易救济制度的政治经济学分析

在当前金融危机的背景下,反倾销、反补贴、保障措施等贸易救济措施的贸易保护性质在实践中不断得到加强,并已演变成为重要的贸易保护工具和维护国内特定产业利益的有效手段,其矫正作用已经被扭曲了。本文运用新政治经济学的"公共选择"理论探讨了WTO贸易救济政策供给的动因,揭示了目前国外对我国实施贸易救济措施的政治经济原因。     

地方政府债务扩张与银行信贷风险

国际金融危机后实施的"金融救市"政策是导致地方政府债务迅速扩张的外部因素,地方政府债务的迅速扩张又反过来加剧了银行的信贷风险,为金融体系的不稳定性埋下隐患。实证研究发现,金融危机后实施的救市政策构成了商业银行"对政府债权"的显著差异与结构突变;商业银行"对政府债权"对银行的不良贷款率和存贷比显著正相关。     

Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies

Nowadays foreign exchange interventions occur in emerging market economies, whereas empirical studies on interventions mainly refer to advanced economies. However, interventions in emerging markets are different from those in advanced economies: they occur ‘regularly’ and central banks have considerable leverage, derived from relatively high reserves, some non‐sterilisation, the central bank’s information advantage and capital controls. Consequently, these interventions often successfully impact the level and volatility of exchange rates. Nevertheless, more research on interventions in emerging markets is needed analysing the influence of heterogeneous institutional circumstances, examining the role of central bank communication and using high‐frequency data.     

The WTO and the trade-environment conflict

The shrimp-turtle case and the angry reactions it produced both inside and outside the WTO are only one striking example of the explosive force with which environmental policy disputes can shake the world trade system. Given a world whose economies are more closely linked and where environmental problems extend over national borders, it is to be expected that interest groups increasingly concentrate on influencing the institution which is dedicated to promoting international trade, the WTO.     

农村民间借贷高利率对农村经济社会发展的影响

通过描述中国农村民间借贷现状,简析了我国农村民间借贷高利率形成的原因,通过建立数理经济模型,分析了我国民间借贷高利率在农村经济社会发展过程中所起的作用。本文认为尽管高利率对农村经济的发展存在各种消极的影响,但是如果能够合理规范农村民间借贷利率,则对经济的发展有一定的促进作用,虽然消极影响要大于积极影响。为此,建议制定相应的法律来完善和规范民间金融借贷,正规化将成为我国历史进程中的迫切要求。     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.