自然开放度、政策导向开放度与劳动生产率提升——理论和基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

本文以李嘉图模型为基础,分析了贸易开放对提升中国劳动生产率的效应。本文使用1994-2005年间中国省际面板数据,就贸易开放对提升中国劳动生产率水平所产生的效应进行了实证研究。本文得出两个重要的分析结果:第一,贸易开放可以通过比较优势来确定一国专业化产品的生产,如果一国的比较优势存在于干中学系数较大的部门,贸易开放将提高劳动生产率;但若一国的比较优势存在于干中学系数较小的部门,贸易开放将降低劳动生产率;第二,本文将贸易开放度分解为自然开放度和政策导向开放度,结果发现,当自然开放度较小时,政策导向开放度的增加将降低劳动生产率;当自然开放度较大时,政策开放度的增加将提高劳动生产率水平。     

贸易开放度对经济增长的长期均衡效应

对我国外贸开放度与经济增长的长期均衡关系作实证检验表明,目前我国贸易开放度对于GDP的直接拉动作用尚不明显,贸易开放度主要是通过对总供给的影响间接带动经济增长,即通过促进资本形成、加快技术进步和提高要素生产率等来促进经济增长.同时贸易开放度的提高对劳动力的需求具有负效应,因此,提高人力资本和技术水平应该成为我国未来发展对外贸易的关键所在.     

贸易开放与金融开放的内在联系——基于PVAR模型的实证检验

对外开放包括贸易开放和金融开放两个维度,但是学者们一般将两者分开进行研究,对两者之间关系的研究则主要集中于贸易开放与金融开放的政策次序问题上。所以本文首先对贸易开放与金融开放之间的联系渠道做了简单的理论分析,然后利用43个国家1982—2003年的数据建立了包含贸易开放度和金融开放度两个变量的PVAR模型对两者之间的动态联系进行实证检验,检验的结果证实贸易开放对金融开放具有显著的正向影响,而金融开放对贸易开放没有显著的影响。但是,对于金融一体化程度不同的国家而言,这些结论并不一致。     

产业内贸易与经济增长:基于人力资本的分析框架

贸易的知识扩散效应和贸易竞争的资源配置效应是长期内产业内贸易影响增长的最根本的两个方面。本文将包含贸易知识扩散程度参数的人力资本积累函数引入Bucci提出的经济增长模型,把模型拓展到开放经济环境,在动态贸易均衡中考察这两种效应。研究发现：贸易的知识扩散效应促进人力资本积累,有利于经济增长;贸易竞争效应使人力资本更多地配置到低效率的非竞争性部门,不利于经济增长。因此,产业内贸易对经济增长的影响取决于知识扩散效应和贸易竞争效应的影响程度的相对大小比较结果。     

贸易开放、人力资本与环境污染——理论及实证检验

本文从人力资本的角度出发,在人力资本能形成比较优势的模型框架内,通过分析表明:当一国的人力资本较高时,贸易开放会使该国专业化于生产洁净的人力资本密集型产品,从而减少环境污染;相反,如果当一国的人力资本较低时,贸易开放则会诱使该国专业化于生产对环境有污染的产品,进而增加环境污染程度.同时,利用全国省际面板数据进行实证检验,结果验证了本文的模型推断.     

我国贸易开放度与经济增长关系的实证研究

文章运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验对我国外贸依存度与经济增长的长期均衡关系作实证检验.结果表明,目前我国贸易开放度对于GDP的直接拉动作用尚不明显,其主要是通过对总供给的影响间接带动经济增长,即通过促进资本形成、加快技术进步和提高要素生产率等来促进经济增长;同时贸易开放度的提高对劳动力的需求具有负效应,因此,提高人力资本和技术水平应该成为我国未来发展对外贸易的关键所在.     

我国金融服务贸易竞争力和开放度的关系研究

随着改革开放的不断深入,服务行业的国际化正成为我国改革和开放的重点,金融服务业也在开放的同时面临着竞争和挑战。本文通过对金融服务贸易竞争力的计算、金融服务贸易开放度的计算以及二者之间关系进行实证分析的基础上,研究在开放环境下我国金融服务贸易的竞争力状况,以及金融服务贸易的开放对我国金融服务业竞争力的影响。     

我国外汇储备规模与经济开放度的实证研究

本文以国际收支平衡表中的经常账户和金融账户为基础,分别从实体经济层面的贸易开放度和金融层面的投资开放度来界定我国的经济开放度指标,运用两变量VAR系统方法对1982～2004年我国外汇储备规模与经济开放度指标之间的关系进行实证研究,结果显示二者具有显著的正向协整关系,相对投资开放度而言,贸易开放度对外汇储备规模具有较大的影响.     

中国服务业开放40年——渐进历程、开放度评估和经验总结

中国服务业开放40年的历程大致分为初始期、迅速发展期、全面开放过渡期、全面开放新格局期等四个阶段.中国服务业开放40年,不同地区、不同领域服务业开放度差异较大.从中国服务业分行业开放度的角度看,分销服务对外开放程度最高,其次分别为商务服务、旅游服务、通信服务、金融服务、环境服务、运输服务、建筑服务、教育服务;从服务业外商投资开放度的空间分析角度看,中国服务业外商投资开放度排名前5位的分别为江苏、广东、上海、浙江、辽宁;从服务业对外直接投资开放度的空间分析看,中国服务业对外直接投资开放度排名前5位的分别为广东、浙江、江苏、北京、上海;从服务贸易开放度的空间分析角度看,中国服务贸易开放度排名前5位的分别为广东、江苏、上海、山东、浙江.中国服务业开放对经济社会发展产生了积极影响,对服务业发展、改革创新发挥了重要推动作用,但也需防范其可能的风险.因此,应立足中国特色社会主义新时代的战略高度,形成服务业开放的新格局,提高服务业开放水平,助推中国产业攀升全球价值链和创造链.     

中国贸易开放与通货膨胀持续性关系研究

本文分别利用修正的综合贸易强度公式和卡尔曼滤波方法估计了中国改革开放以来的贸易开放度和时变的通货膨胀持续性,并在此基础上对中国贸易开放与通货膨胀持续性关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国贸易开放度的变化表现出明显的阶段性特征;中国的通货膨胀持续性处于不断波动的过程中,从趋势来看,中国的通货膨胀持续性呈现出不断下降的趋势;贸易开放度的提高对中国的通货膨胀持续性具有显著的负向影响。     

“This One Is 400 Libyan Dinars,This One Is 500”: Insights from Cognitive Human Capital and Slave Trade

One of the most disturbing contemporary episodes in human history that has been decried globally is the recent Libyan experience of slave trade, where migrants captured end-up being sold as slaves. We contribute to the understanding of this phenomenon by investigating the role of cognitive human capital on slave trade. To this end, we use the historic intelligence and slave trade variables, respectively, as the independent and outcome variables of interest. Our findings show a negative relationship between slave trade and cognitive human capital. Hence, the slave trade is more apparent when cognitive human capital is low. The Ordinary Least Squares findings are robust to the control for outliers, uncertainty about the model and Tobit regressions. We substantiate why from the perspective of massive sensitization and education, the non-contemporary relationship between cognitive ability and slave trade established in this study has contemporary practical policy relevance in efforts to stem the tide of clandestine travel to Europe through countries in which clandestine migrants are captured and sold as slaves.     

对外贸易开放、人力资本积累与企业技术创新

企业技术创新作为科技创新的核心部分,在促进经济高质量发展中的重要性日益凸显。通过构建一个包含消费部门和生产部门的两部门模型,探究对外贸易开放及其人力资本积累效应对企业技术创新的影响机制,随后基于2011-2017年中国31个省级区域的面板数据实证检验对外贸易开放、人力资本积累及二者的交互作用对企业技术创新的影响。结果显示:从整体层面来看,对外贸易开放不仅对企业技术创新产生直接影响,还会通过人力资本积累效应对企业技术创新产生间接影响;从区域异质性角度来看,贸易开放对企业技术创新产生的直接影响和间接影响存在着空间上的非均衡特征,表现为对发达的东部地区的企业影响更为明显,而对欠发达的西部和中部地区的企业影响相对较弱;从对外贸易方式来看,全样本分析表明出口贸易方式的人力资本积累效应对企业技术创新影响作用较强,而进口贸易方式的作用相对较弱。因此,应当注重不同贸易发展方式的人力资本积累效应差异及其对企业技术创新产生的影响,增强我国通过企业技术创新促进经济高质量发展的实效。     

Gender‐specific Human Capital,Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia

Using data covering 1970–2008 for South Asia, this study investigates the influence of human capital disaggregated by gender, on economic growth. We use an extended version of the Solow growth model with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) a function of the key variables, viz. physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation, trade openness and capital flows, fiscal policy and financial development. The key contribution of this study is to show that openness when interacted with the human capital stock disaggregated by gender, has differential impacts on economic growth. While the positive impact of male secondary schooling captures the direct skill effect relative to primary schooling, the marginal influence of female primary/secondary schooling fails to show a positive impact on growth at higher levels of openness. An implication stemming from this study is that educational opportunities for females at the secondary level should be increased for South Asia.     

对贸易自由化和环境保护关系的经济学思考

文章从经济学角度分析了环保政策对一国比较优势和吸引外资的影响以及贸易自由化对环境的影响,认为评价贸易自由化效应时必须考虑对环境的影响,不能为了贸易自由化而牺牲环境。     

International Trade and Growth Miracles: the Implications of Nonhomothetic Preferences

If the rate of saving increases with income then a low per capita level of the capital stock may be self‐sustaining. In these circumstances international trade may allow an economy to quickly increase its per capita capital stock in a self‐reinforcing “growth miracle” process. A labor‐abundant economy trading with a capital‐abundant economy will see its wage rate rise relative to autarky. This rise in the wage rate also increases the savings rate and so raises the following period’s per capita capital stock. In this way a low‐income economy may exhibit large and permanent increases in its level of GDP per capita after opening its markets to international trade.     

Optimal Income Taxation with Endogenous Human Capital

This paper augments the theory of optimal linear income taxation by taking into account human capital accumulation as a dimension of labor supply. The distribution of earning potentials is endogenous because agents differ in the ability to learn. Taxation affects utilization rates of human capital through labor supply responses. The costs of education that are not deductible from the income tax distort the learning decision as well. We show theoretically that the trade‐off between efficiency and equity is worsened. Quantitative analysis shows that the distortionary costs of taxation increase substantially when human capital formation is endogenous.     

Trade deficits in the Baltic states: How long will the party last?

Since their opening up to international capital markets, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced large and persistent capital inflows and trade deficits. This paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic states. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995–2004 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. The model indicates that trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010.     

The Political Economy of Education and Development in an Open Economy

If the price effect of opening up a developing economy may be expected to act as a disincentive for investment in human capital, the opposite is likely to be true of the income effect, especially in the presence of credit market imperfections among the poor. It is shown in this paper that this may no longer be the case in a society initially dominated by an oligarchic capitalist elite that is afraid of losing its political control in favor of an educated middle class. Although it may sometimes be in its interest to democratize by subsidizing education when the economy is closed, incentives to do so disappear when the economy is open to trade or factor flows.     

Rigid labour markets with trade and capital mobility: theory and evidence

Abstract We develop a multi‐country model with imperfect labour markets to study the effect of labour market frictions on bilateral trade flows. We use a framework that allows for goods trade and capital mobility and show that labour market imperfections exert opposite effects in the absence of capital mobility (the short run) and its presence (the long run), respectively. In the short run, a higher degree of labour market rigidity decreases the value of total trade, but increases the share of intra‐industry trade for a country that is larger than its trading partner. The reverse effects are observed when capital is allowed to cross country borders. Using data on unemployment and income distribution for 23 OECD countries, we compute the central parameter in our theoretical model that describes the degree of labour market rigidity. We use this new empirical concept to provide evidence for our theoretical findings by means of reduced‐form regressions as well as simulation results of a calibrated general equilibrium model.     

Long-term impact of trade liberalization on human capital formation

While a growing line of research has assessed the effect of trade liberalization on human capital formation, most of these studies focus on its short-term effect on individual’s school attendance. Much less is known about its long-run effect, as well as the impact on other aspects of human capital formation such as labor market and noncognitive outcomes. This paper studies the impact of trade liberalization on individuals’ long-term human capital accumulation, including school attendance, cognitive abilities, labor market performance, and noncognitive outcomes. By constructing prefecture-year-level tariff barriers, our identification strategy exploits variations in different cohorts’ exposure to a trade shock at age 16 for individuals within the same prefecture. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalization leads to decreased completed years of schooling, cognitive abilities, wage, and noncognitive outcomes. We provide suggestive evidence that this observed pattern is explained by the expansion of job opportunities in relatively low-skilled and labor-intensive sectors.