谈基础设施建设投资拉动

一、加大基础设施建设投资是经济稳定增长的关键70年代末以来,我国经济持续高速发展,1978年至1997年GDP平均每年递增9．8％,在世界各国中名列前茅。在经历了近对年高速发展后,原有推动经济增长的主要因素已开始发生深刻变化。我国经济正步人一个新的发展阶段,其特征是增长速度逐步趋缓,由以往的持续高速发展转为适度快速增长。1992年以来GDP增幅大约每年递减一个百分点,从14．2％逐年回落到1997年的8．8％,1998年上半年又降至7％。1998年,我国已确定了8％的经济增长速度目标。从经济发展所必需的各种资源要素的供给来看,要实现…     

扩大内需：问题与对策

一、扩大内需遇到的问题１经济增长速度减缓。我国经济增长速度于１９９２达到１４．１０％的高峰后逐年回落，１９９７年回落到８．８％，１９９８年回落到７．８％，比上年下降１个百分点。当前我国经济增长主要靠内需拉动，经济增长速度减缓说明内需不足。２投资增...     

1994年经济走势透析

1993年是我国经济的又一个高速增长年份。1993年7月份以后,随着中央宏观调控措施的实施,工业增长速度从6月份的30.2％回落到10月份的16.4％,10月份之后,随着信贷资金的大量投放,工业增长速度又重新进入高增长状态,调控时滞大大缩短,这种情况在改革以来各年份中是首次出现的。     

充分发挥后发优势 发展广东钢铁产业

在中国的经济版图上,以区域经济板块为特色的竞争格局正在加快形成。其中京津唐经济区、长江三角洲经济区、珠江三角洲经济区是区域经济板块中最活跃的地区。在这三大经济区中,广东的发展慢于华东。广东经济增长前高后低,1993年至2002年10年间,经济增长的领先地区是浙江,年均增长18.8%,比广东高1.2个百分点。10年来,广东经济增长速度逐步回落,1992年     

关于扩大河北省农村居民消费需求的分析

1993年以来 ,河北省ＧＤＰ增长速度一直呈回落态势。在影响ＧＤＰ回落的众多因素中 ,居民消费需求尤其是农村居民消费需求不足是主要因素。因此 ,采取必要的经济手段刺激农村居民消费需求增长 ,是实现河北省经济持续、快速、健康发展的关键。一、河北省农村居民消费需求不足的成因分析1 农民收入增长滞缓是农村居民消费倾向下降的首要因素。 1997年河北省农民人均纯收入2 2 86 0 1元 ,比 1996年增长 11 2 4% ,增幅下降了11 90个百分点。 1998年比 1997年增长 5 2 2 % ,增幅下降了 6 0 2个百分点。消费是收入的函数 ,收入水平低速增长必然…     

对中国经济高速增长的一些看法

<正>改革开放17年来,我国经济发展取得了巨大成就,国内生产总值年平均增长9.6%,“八五”期间,国内生产总值年平均增长速度达11.7%,1992年以后,中国又连续出现了高速增长,1992年为10.8%,1993年为13%,1994年下滑到11.8%,1995年又回落到10.2%.中国能在短短的17年间使国民经济呈现出如此快速的增长,这在世界上实属少见.而我国沿海地区年平均增长率为15%左右,内地年平均增长率为8%左右.如果把我国的沿海地区与日本(199年为10.8%)和南朝鲜(1995年为11%)相比较的话,我们的增长速度要比他们快得多.但从整体上来说,我们的增长速度和他们差不多.许多学者分析认为,我们现在的高速增长势头若能保持到2010     

下半年经济增速和价格涨幅均趋降

经济增长速度继续平缓下降经济增速的继续回落主要由于市场需求增速继续降低。首先,出口增长速度预计将继续有所回落。在上半年增长24%的基础上,7月份出口增长20.4%,虽然较6月份有所提高,但增幅仍低于上半年。到目前为止,美国经济恢复仍然主要依靠     

如何启动下一轮的经济增长?

一、我国的经济增长需要积极的财政政策自1993年实施宏观调控以来，我国经济的增长率逐年回落，1997年的经济增长率是8．8％，下降了4．6个百分点，今年已是第六个回落的年头，仍未止跌回升，主要原因在以下几个方面：一是受东南亚经济危机的影响使我国的出口增长缓慢，外...     

对1988、1993年两次通货膨胀的比较及其相关问题分析

改革开放以来,我国共出现了两次大的通货膨胀:一次是在80年代中后期,确切地说是从1984年下半年开始,到1988年达到膨胀的高峰;一次是在90年代前期,即从1992年初开始、1993年6月份达到高峰的通货膨胀。     

加快经济由外需拉动向内需推动转换

外需贡献率出现下滑。净出口比重明显下降。从使用方面看,最终消费保持较高的增长速度．投资增速有所回落,净出口则大幅回落。据国家统计局初步核算,一季度。货物和服务净出口对经济增长的贡献率为6．％,大幅回落23．5个百分点,拉动经济增长0．7个百分点。从使用结构看。消费和投资比重均有所上升,净出口比重明显下降。一季度货物和服务净出口比重为7．1％．同比下降2．2个百分点。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2003—2004年

中国经济景气在2003年继续其2002年以来的扩张倾向,全年GDP增长率将接近9%,并且将在2004年完成从经济萧条到经济繁荣的经济周期形态转换。21世纪上半叶, 中国经济将继续保持高速增长的历史趋势,核心通货膨胀率将处于较低水平。在当前经济扩张的初级阶段,中国宏观经济管理应该采取适度扩张的财政政策与货币政策,建立以增加国内投资需求为轴心的需求管理政策体系,促进国民经济持续快速增长,并且在此基础上实现增加就业、保持结构平衡和维护人民币汇率稳定的多重政策目标。     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

影响中国服务贸易出口的可量化因素分析

根据1990-2004年中国服务贸易出口及其可量化因素的时间序列数据建立的多元线性回归模型,印证了人均国内生产总值、世界GDP增长率、服务业占GDP的比重、货物贸易出口额等因素对中国服务贸易出口的影响。因此,应优化服务贸易出口结构。扩大市场开发度和加大政府支持力度,以增加中国服务贸易的出口。     

Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC

After more than three decades of unprecedented high growth at an average rate of nearly 10% per annum, China's economy has been slowing down since 2010, dropping to 6.9% in 2015, the lowest annual growth rate since 1990. As the world's largest economy in PPP terms and the second largest in terms of nominal exchange rates, such a slowdown has profound implications. The whole world is asking if the Chinese economy will continue to slow or be trapped in low growth. This paper presents a rather optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, concluding that a reacceleration to 8% in the medium run is possible under favorable conditions. We argue that the main factors that led to the slowdown since 2010 are external and cyclical. Nevertheless, structural and institutional obstacles to the re-acceleration of growth are also discussed, together with policy suggestions.     

中国经济国民投资率的福利经济学分析

本文首次系统地从福利经济学角度出发,运用前沿计算方法,试图回答中国投资率是否过高这一重要问题。本文首先计算了两个投资率:一是境内投资率;二是国民投资率,即(境内投资+对外投资)/GDP。通过横向的对比,发现无论是境内投资率还是国民投资率,即便考虑高经济增长率,中国经济都远高于世界各国。其次,采用经济增长理论的基准模型,利用中国的参数进行校准,并且进行稳健性检验,运用逆向积分法模拟中国经济福利最大化的投资路径。结果表明,中国经济上世纪90年代平均境内投资率低于福利最大化的投资率6%,国民投资率4%;2002年后,平均境内投资高于福利最大化的投资率5%,国民投资率12%;1990—2008年实际投资相对福利最大化的投资路径总福利损失约为5.9%,相当于每期损失约3.8%的GDP。最后,本文进一步分析,如果适当地降低国民投资率,同时改善投资效率,中国经济的GDP增长率并不会大幅下降。     

A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions

Most of the research articles on climate change study the relationships between economic growth, and, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission or energy consumption separately for analyzing the impacts of economic growth and energy consumption on global carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the linkages among CO₂ emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and energy consumption are studied simultaneously using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The time period considered for the study is 1980-2001. The results show that world in the year 1980 was the most efficient in achieving the highest economic growth, emitting least carbon dioxide for a given level of energy consumption for that year. The efficiency index reduced in the next 8 years, fluctuated with a declining trend for the next 7 years, and began to rise from 1996 till 2001. The model is further extended in this paper for technology forecasting to identify the links between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for achieving projected levels of GDP under two different assumptions on efficiency index. It has been identified using the forecasting model that, when the carbon dioxide emissions are restricted to the levels emitted in the year 1990 and when the efficiency index for the year 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1980 (highest value), the non-fossil energy consumption needed to meet the GDP level projected for 2025 will be much smaller (35.46 quadrillion Btu for the reference GDP) than the values actually recorded in the year 1990 (44.59). However, the non-fossil energy consumption in 2025 (118.8) increases much more than the actual recorded in the year 1990 when the efficiency index in 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1990.     

The future of the global economy

Although world growth is continuous throughout history, the balance of power is constantly shifting from one nation to another. From Egypt to Ancient Greece and Rome, all the way through modern western civilization, different nations struggle for power through various ways such as: war, science and technology, arts, commerce, economical transactions, and other forms of interaction.In this article we use the assumption that global activity, as measured by real GDP, follows the well known s-curve of natural growth. Furthermore in order to model the relative power of specific regions, namely Western Countries, China and the rest of the world, we use the Logistic Substitution method developed by Nakicenovic and Marchetti. Estimates from the derived models are tested against actual data and linked to real historical events where appropriate.The bottom line of these forecasts is that World GDP will continue to rise in the next years, and will probably reach its peak growth by the end of the next decade. China's emergence as a superpower is verified and could have been predicted even as way back as 1985 by using the Logistic Substitution method. If the current trend persists it is expected to more than double its percentage contribution to the World's gross domestic product during the next two decades and exceed Western Countries' aggregated GDP by 2034 at a level of almost 40%. By the year 2024 though China's economy is expected to enter the substitution phase, as our world will most likely experience the emergence of a new “superpower” that will take its place, and once more will change the international landscape as we know it today.     

Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks?

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Initial empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000     

货币化率的直接测算及土地与住房的货币化—中国经济改革中的货币化进程再思考

值改革开放四十周年之际,作为我国经济发展的一条重要主线,对Yi(1991)提出的"中国经济改革过程中的货币化进程"问题进行再考察,较科学地测算我国改革开放初期的货币化率,并对现阶段仍存在的"M2消失之谜"进行更深入的研究,是非常有必要的.前者有利于总结我国过去货币化进程的经验教训,对正处在狭义货币化进程中的亚非拉"一带一路"沿线发展中国家具有较强的借鉴意义;后者则有助于理解我国当前的货币创造、货币政策以及资源"脱实向虚"的重要原因.如果学术界不能为我国货币化率测算的核心难题提供一个较准确清晰的答案,那么就很难给上述国家现阶段的货币化进程提供实质性建议.为此,文章初步解决了货币化率直接测算遗留的难题,并分析了"M2消失之谜"的形成原因及其对实体经济的影响.理论测算表明,我国的货币化率在1952年和1978年分别约为31.7%和42.0%,到1993年基本达到100%;货币化率的年均增速则可分为三个阶段:1952?1960年为4.7%?6.1%,1961?1977年为?0.7%?1.2%,1978?1992年为6.0%?6.7%.文章还发现,剔除狭义货币化因素后,我国M2的平均流速仍在逐年下降,说明现阶段我国经济的"货币流速下降之谜"和"高货币化之谜"并未消失,实证分析表明土地与住房的商品化和货币化可能是一个新的重要因素.经济危机后,我国过多的金融资源流向了房地产市场,这暗示土地与住房的过度货币化可能对实体经济造成了伤害.     

人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析

将全世界划分为10个国家(或地区),在全球经济一般均衡框架下,模拟并分析了不同汇率情景下各国和地区的经济增长和产业结构的变化。模拟结果显示:中国的GDP将于2035年超过美国;人民币升值会导致中国的GDP增速放缓,而对其他国家的GDP增长有促进作用;人民币贬值有利于中国GDP的增长,但不利于其他国家GDP的增长;人民币升值后,中国农业、轻工业和建筑业的比重下降,食品加工业、能源业、化学工业和重工业的比重上升,而印度和俄罗斯与中国在地缘经济上是竞争关系,欧美国家与中国在地缘经济上是合作关系,因此印度和俄罗斯的产业结构变化与中国大致相反,而欧美国家的产业结构变化趋势与中国类似。