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经常账户失衡的调整:国际经验及其对中国的启示 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文对1980至2005年期间全球范围内106个国家或地区的经常账户失衡调整进行了研究,通过界定经常账户失衡进行调整的事后标准进而识别出经常账户赤字或者盈余的不同调整期间。在对经常账户调整期间合理识别的基础上,本文考察了经常账户失衡调整的国际经验,并且利用Probit模型进行了经验研究。研究结果表明,一些经济变量对于经常账户失衡的调整具有显著的预测作用。本文借助于近30年的经常账户失衡调整的国际经验,结合中国经济发展过程中的现实情况对经常账户收支盈余调整提出了相关政策建议。 相似文献
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本文使用42个发达工业化国家和新兴经济体国家2000~2010年的经济数据,采用面板门槛模型估计不同国家财政政策对经常账户的影响,检验李嘉图等价效应成立的条件。估计结果显示,财政政策与经常账户表现出"双赤字"现象,但政府债务规模对消费与投资的扭曲作用使得财政赤字与经常账户又呈现非线性关系。同时,较高的税负水平对财政政策效果的影响是导致李嘉图等价效应成立的重要条件。本文的结论表明,我国长期实施的扩张性财政政策对经常账户平衡的不利影响已经开始显现。因此,实施审慎的宏观财政政策、降低税负水平对维持经常账户平衡和经济健康发展具有重要的战略意义。 相似文献
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国际分工新形态、金融市场发展与全球失衡 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
本文从国际分工的角度考察了全球失衡问题,通过构造一个金融市场-制造业比较优势指标,利用1990~2005年45个国家的数据进行了系统的计量研究,证实金融-制造业比较优势对于经常账户赤字(盈余)的重要性,一系列稳健性检验支持了我们的主要结论。特别地,我们发现,中国的贸易失衡在很大程度上可以由国际分工新格局加以解释。这一发现对于理解全球失衡和中国的经济增长模式具有重要意义。 相似文献
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埃斯瓦尔&#;普拉萨德 《海外经济评论》2009,(35):14-15
【美国布鲁金斯学会8月2日】此次全球金融危机可归咎于不少因素。其中之一便是全球宏观经济的失衡现象——一面是美国和其他发达国家经常账户的赤字,另一面则是新兴市场国家和石油输出国家的账户盈余。全球失衡即使不是金融危机的关键因素,也是金融危机的导火索。它为美国人提供低成本的贷款,促使美国人大手大脚地消费,并鼓励金融人士玩弄花招诡计,最终导致了危机的爆发。 相似文献
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美国经常账户赤字的实质是国内储蓄不足,需要国际资本流入来弥补。由于其规模越来越大,引发了美国经常账户赤字是否可以持续的担忧。本文经过分析认为,由于美国经济的增长前景良好,美元作为国际储备货币的地位难以动摇,美国目前的经常账户赤字规模在未来几年之内都是可以维持的,美元大跌的风险也不大。尽管美国的净外债规模已经很大,但还没有达到危险的程度。 相似文献
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从结构与制度视角解释中国汇率政策和外部经济失衡 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
一、中国经常账户失衡的原因到底是什么? 中国和世界经济在贸易和资本流动中的失衡已经众所周知:美国在近25年一直保持与全球其他经济体的经常账户赤字.在2006年,经常账户赤字达8570亿美元,相当于国内生产总值的6.5%.美国巨大的赤字主要通过日本、中国和其他石油输出国国际收支经常项目顺差来支持及获得融资. 相似文献
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全球国际收支失衡:中国视角 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
首先,我想讲一下:这是我的角度,而不能代表整个中国的角度. 对于全球失衡来说,我想失衡实际上是把两方面的问题合在一起了,一方面是美国的经常项目赤字,另一方面是亚洲的经常账户盈余.美国的经常项目赤字非常巨大,经常项目赤字的累积额也非常之大,这令人担忧.但是现在首要的问题不是我们要去战胜它,而是要问我们将来往哪儿走. 相似文献
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Global Imbalances: Is Germany the New China? A Skeptical View 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
In this paper we evaluate the current account patterns of China and Germany. We point out that China’s current account surplus
as a share of global GDP in recent years resembles that of Germany’s. Yet, an important difference is that the Euro block’s
current account inclusive of Germany has overall been balanced, whereas emerging Asia’s current account inclusive of China
has mostly been characterized by sizable surpluses. We further find that both China and Germany’s current account surpluses
seem to be accounted for by common factors. However we have reasons to doubt the long run viability of these current account
trends in future decades. Demographic transitions in China and Germany are projected to reduce their surpluses, and this effect
is stronger for Germany. We also discuss plausible reasons to doubt the extent to which the Euro block will move towards significant
surplus in the coming years. 相似文献
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Three current account imbalances – one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) – are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S. current account deficit (nearly 2 percentage points of the 2006 deficit of 5(1/2)% of GDP) will undergo an adjustment process that involves real depreciation in its exchange rate. For Japan, a little more than 1 percentage point (of GDP) of the current account surplus is found to require an exchange rate movement (real appreciation) as the surpluses adjust down. For the Euro area, less than half a percentage point of its current account surplus is found to require an adjustment via real appreciation. 相似文献
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In this paper, we estimate structural VAR models with contemporaneous restrictions based on neo-classical and Keynesian theories to investigate whether the cause of current account surpluses for East Asian economies is a “saving glut” or undervalued currencies. Analytical results show that the major determinant of the current account is the real effective exchange rate for all East Asian countries with the exception of China for which the major determinant is domestic GDP. Accordingly, the recently requested revaluation of the Chinese yuan may not be an effective policy for reducing the Chinese current account surplus, and may affect other Asian current accounts. We also investigate whether a Chinese currency revaluation would contribute to the improvement of current account imbalances in East Asia and find that a revaluation would, indeed, improve the current accounts of Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand. Since the trade structures of major East Asian countries are substitutes with that of China, a Chinese currency revaluation might not lead to a decrease in East Asian current account surpluses. Coordination of currency policy among East Asian countries is, therefore, needed to solve the global current account imbalance. 相似文献
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Atlantic Economic Journal - The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have had persistent current account surpluses in recent decades. While oil production set Norway apart, the... 相似文献
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This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short‐term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one‐way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses. 相似文献
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We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany's balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany's case, credit losses. 相似文献
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从1990~2008年,19年的时间里,中国的国际收支呈现出"双顺差"现象,延续时间之久,差额数值之大实属世界罕见。本文分别对中国国际收支中经常项目顺差和资本与金融项目顺差进行了原因分析,指出消费、税收、宏观经济政策、人民币可自由兑换等方面存在的问题是"双顺差"现象的根源所在,得出短期内"双顺差"现象不可能改变的结论。 相似文献
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This paper provides some empirical evidence on one of the most controversial theoretical implications of the new open economy
literature, which refers to the role of the current account in the international monetary transmission mechanism. In order
to throw some light on this issue, two structural VAR models are estimated separately for 14 industrialized countries. The
main empirical results highlight the importance of the role of nominal disturbances for current account fluctuations. Additionally,
it is found that expansionary nominal shocks generate temporary current account surpluses, whose size is positively correlated
with the openness of the individual countries. JEL no. C32, E40, F41, F42 相似文献
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与流行观点相违背的是,我国外汇储备在1998-2000、2001-2003所表现出来的特征主要是由于非实体资本的流动所引起,而非由外国直接投资所导致。从1997年亚洲金融危机爆发后的1998-2000、2001-2004、2005-2006三个时期来看,我国非实体资本流动分别呈现大规模流出——流入——流出三个特点,表明我国对非实体资本的监控尚缺乏有效力度。2004年后我国加大了对资本市场开放的力度,因此有必要加强对非实体资本流动的监控以降低其带来的负效应。 相似文献
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从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。 相似文献