The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

我国汽车产业市场集中度影响因素的实证分析

将产业组织理论与现代计量经济方法相结合,对影响我国汽车产业市场集中度的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国汽车产业市场集中度与市场总规模、市场进入壁垒、产品差别化程度呈正相关关系,汽车进口量对市场集中度的影响不显著。由此,探讨了促进我国汽车产业市场集中度由分散向适度集中转变的政策思路。     

后日美贸易摩擦时代日本的产业分流及其半导体产业衰退

在后日美贸易摩擦时代,遭受美国贸易制裁和打压的日本产业界发生了以汽车产业和半导体产业为代表的产业大分流。与日本汽车产业强劲国际竞争力和继续全球扩张相反,曾经不可一世的日本半导体产业却极度萎缩并出现了行业性衰退。日本综合电机厂商的多元化经营体制和过度重视暗默知识的内部创新氛围,难以适应半导体产业全球化水平分工和开放创新的时代潮流;通产省产业政策模式下的国家开发计划,无法有效应对高度不确定性且急速发展的半导体市场,延误了日本半导体厂商市场化开放创新的步伐。     

美国贸易逆差的福利效应研究——基于OLG和R-C-K理论的实证分析

本文从促成美国贸易逆差的因素之一,即美国政府财政赤字的角度,以世代交叠模型和拉姆赛-卡斯-库普曼理论为基础,构建相应的计量模型,对美国贸易逆差的福利效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:美国政府财政赤字的确在一定程度上促成了其持续贸易逆差;持续的贸易逆差对当前和将来福利水平的提高有着积极的促进作用,并且不存在所谓的福利水平的代际转移;中国对美贸易顺差是互利双赢的贸易结果。根据上述结果,本文提出了政策启示及进一步研究的方向。     

中国汽车产业全要素生产率的微观测量

判断我国汽车产业“以市场换技术”策略成效如何,可以通过对行业全要素生产率的测量予以回答。为了克服传统（宏观）方法估计行业全要素生产率的不足,本文从微观角度,利用汽车企业数据完成了对汽车行业全要素生产率的测量,并通过面板固定效应法、Olley＆Pakes法与Levinsohn＆Petrin法等多种方法的横向比较,得出较为一致的结论。结果显示,1999—2007年我国汽车行业整体全要素生产率明显提升,细分为各控股类型、各子行业研究亦是如此;国有控股汽车企业全要素生产率整体低于非国有控股汽车企业,但由于上升较快,逐步与非国有控股企业趋同。由此说明,“以市场换技术”策略已取得实效,汽车产业正从“引进-吸收-消化”向“创新-超越”转型,继续加强技术研发,构筑中国汽车国际竞争力成为产业发展的主要路径。     

Financial crises,Asian stock indices,and current accounts: An Asian-U.S. comparative study

This paper investigates the effects of financial crises-based exchange rate, real interest rate, and personal consumption expenditure on stock market indices and balances of current account in four Asian countries/areas, and the U.S. from 1997 to 2010. Results obtained from Sims's first-order DSGE representation suggest that two policy variables – changes in the exchange rate and changes in the real interest rate lagged by one quarter – act as stabilizers for contemporaneous changes in stock indices for Thailand, Malaysia, and the U.S., but as destabilizers for Taiwan and Hong Kong. However, changes in personal consumption expenditure lagged by one quarter only play a destabilizing role in Hong Kong. For contemporaneous changes in the current account balance, all three policy variables become destabilizers for all five countries except the one-quarter lagged change in real interest rate, which acts as a stabilizer in Malaysia.     

Monetary Policy,Market Structure and the Income Shares in the U.S

A general equilibrium model of heterogeneous capital is employed to investigate whether, how and to what extent monetary policy and market structure may have contributed to the decline of the labor share in the U.S. in recent decades. By construction the model allows monetary policy to affect the labor share through two channels, i.e. one linking the policy rate to the real interest rate and another linking the latter to the useful life of producers’ goods, whereas regarding market structure, the more competitive the economy, the higher the labor share. From its solution using U.S. data over the period 2000–2014 it emerges that the persistent reduction in the policy rate on the one hand slowed down the decline in the labor share and on the other accelerated it, because the reduction in the policy rate was accompanied by a robust upward trend in the equilibrium real rate of interest, which increased the useful life of producers’ goods. In turn, to gauge the relative strength of these two opposite effects, the equation of the labor share is estimated by means of the autoregressive distributed lag method. The results show that the adverse effect of monetary policy through the useful life of producers’ goods was more than 12 times as strong as the favorable effect of the policy rate and on this ground I conclude that the monetary policy contributed to the decline of the labor share significantly, at least since 2000. As for the market structure, it is found that even if firms had and attempted to exercise monopoly power, it would be exceedingly difficult to exploit it because the demand of consumers’ goods is significantly price elastic.     

当前美国混合动力汽车产业现状及我国的对策

近年来新能源汽车产业成为世界各国关注的焦点,混合动力汽车作为新能源汽车产业发展的重要方向之一,受到前所未有的重视,我国混合动力汽车产业的发展也正方兴未艾。文章首先在实证研究的基础上分析了近3年来美国混合动力汽车产业的发展现状与产业格局;进而从企业微观与政府宏观层面分析了当前美国混合动力汽车产业发展中存在的诸多问题;然后针对美国混合动力汽车产业当前存在的问题,着重为我国汽车企业提出了大力发展自主品牌,积极开展与国外汽车企业合资合作等政策与建议;最后阐明我国政府当前应以混合动力汽车的技术路径与产业方向作为近、中期新能源汽车发展战略的首选这一立场与观点。     

中美软件产业组织比较分析

中国软件产业组织的特点是分散竞争型,美国软件产业组织的特点是寡占垄断型。缺乏明确的软件产业组织政策是目前中国软件产业市场结构的主要成因。要改变中国软件产业分散竞争型的市场结构,应有明确的产业结构导向、制定软件产业并购政策和推广规模化、工业化的软件生产方式以及合理的组织模式。     

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.     

An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Antidumping Sunset Review Decisions

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the U.S. antidumping sunset review process required under WTO commitments. The econometric models study determinants of decisions by three U.S. actors: the petitioning industry, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Domestic industries facing potential vigorous competition seem to use sunset reviews to maintain current high domestic profits. U.S. governmental institutions use criteria broadly consistent with their legal obligations. Exports involving Chinese firms may face negative bias in the ITC process. JEL no. F1, F13     

Trade,Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

Much of the recent empirical literature examining the New Economic Geography has focused on how access to markets impacts wages. In this article, we consider an alternative aspect of the theory by examining how access to markets affects industry growth. We develop a model relating the growth of two key measures of market size—market access and supplier access—to growth in industry employment and the real value of industry shipments. We estimate the model using data on U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find strong evidence to suggest that access to markets positively affects industry growth.     

日美半导体产业竞争中的国家干预——以战略性贸易政策为视角的分析

半导体产业作为高技术产业,具有明显的学习效应、外部经济和规模报酬递增效应,其良好的发展对一国的经济增长有着不可估量的潜在贡献。半导体产业的战略特征决定了其市场结构是寡头垄断的,并且仅靠市场机制来解决半导体产业发展过程中的问题是远远不够的,因此一国政府应用战略性贸易政策进行干预的动机大大加强了。作为经济大国,美日政府在半导体产业的发展中扮演着重要的角色,通过公共采购、进口关税、R＆D补贴、专利保护等方式扶持本国半导体产业,从而在一定程度上替代了企业,成为国际竞争的主体。     

Convergence in Revealed Preferences for Automobiles as Differentiated Goods: U.S. and OECD Countries: 1970–1999

Attributes of differentiated goods in personal consumption have both conceptual and policy importance in macroeconomic applications that include obsolescence rates of capital stock, the savings rate, and environmental issues. While there is both direct and indirect evidence of variation in preferences for these attributes across countries, there is also conjecture that recent global integration has reduced this variation. We examine convergence between the U.S. and four OECD countries in the levels of automobile attributes over the 1970–1999 period. Results of panel unit root tests with the U.S. as the comparison country showed convergence in the constructed measures of size, performance and efficiency. In pairwise comparisons between the U.S. and OECD countries, results of our model estimations indicated convergence in size and efficiency with estimated half lives to convergence of between four to six years. Disaggregating the definitional components of performance, results show convergence in horsepower when selected economic variables are controlled. We find that measures of trade, per capita income and price appear to be among the mechanisms through which increasing global integration relates to convergence. Directions for further study of convergence preferences for attribute profiles across countries are discussed.     

Regional Comparisons,Spatial Aggregation,and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present. Asymmetric pass-through was found across all regions, with faster pass-through when prices are rising. Pass-through patterns, in terms of speed and time for completion, were found to vary from region to region. Spatial aggregation was investigated at the national level and the East Coast with the aggregated cumulative pass-through being greater than the volume-weighted regional pass-through when spot prices increase. These results are useful to the petroleum industry, consumers, and policy makers by providing a basis to estimate the retail price effects that result from a change in spot price.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

中部地区汽车产业集群效率评价

本文利用主成分分析法确定汽车产业集群效率评价指标体系中各评价指标的权重,在此基础上构建汽车产业集群效率评价模型并对中部地区的汽车产业集群效率进行定量研究,然后对评价结果进行分析,最后,对提升中部地区汽车产业集群效率提出对策建议。     

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

Several alternative measures of “effective” exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently-developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined for the U.S., the euro area, and several East Asian countries. The issues that confront the applied economist or policymaker in using the measures of real effective exchange rates available are illustrated in several case studies from current interest: (i) evaluating exchange rate misalignment; (ii) testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect; (iii) estimating the price responsiveness of trade flows; and (iv) assessing the potential impact of competitive devaluations. JEL Classification Numbers: F31, F41     

全球化背景下的美国纺织服装产业与进口产品:竞争还是合作?

传统观点将进口产品的涌入单纯视为美国纺织服装产业生存和发展的负面冲击因素。然而,全球化背景下,美国纺织服装产业事实上实施了多项产业转型策略,产业运行与进口产品之间的关系也随之发生了较大变化。本文首先从理论角度对转型后的美国纺织服装产业与进口产品之间的关系进行了系统分析。研究发现,由于产业自身特点和美国特定的生产要素禀赋,美国纺织产业和服装产业选择了截然不同的转型路径,转型后的美国纺织产业与进口产品依然偏向竞争性关系,美国服装产业与进口产品则形成了合作性关系。