THE IMPACT OF LOCAL FISCAL AND MIGRATION POLICIES ON HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND INEQUALITY IN CHINA

We develop and estimate a spatial overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households to study the feasibility of a recently proposed reform of internal migration policies that offers the potential of decreasing inequality within China. We find that this policy change significantly increases the college attainment of migrant children born in rural areas and, therefore, promises to increase the number of high-skill workers. However, it requires significant tax increases to offset the reduction of the positive fiscal externalities provided by migrants.     

地方政府能力建设与移民小城镇发展

首先提出我国城市化的未来健康发展需要有管理体制改革和制度创新做支撑的中心论点。通过分析案例地区移民建镇工程的具体经验,从资金管理和投融资、土地利用模式选择和规划以及创造就业和发展机会三方面入手,探讨地方政府在区域发展中的职能特征和行为模式及其对城市化和小城镇发展的作用和影响。建议从制度、规划和操作等层面加强地方政府能力建设,促进中国的地方社会经济发展、生态环境建设与国家的总体发展和城市化进程的统一。     

FRAMING OF INCENTIVES AND EFFORT PROVISION

A prospect theory model combining loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity predicts that the link between incentives framing and effort is ambiguous: small penalties yield higher effort, but isomorphic contracts with large penalties decrease effort. We conduct two experiments (a framed field and a conventional lab experiment) in which economically equivalent contracts are framed as menus of either (i) bonuses, (ii) penalties, or (iii) bonuses and penalties. The experimental results confirm the main intuition of the model as subjects performed best when bonuses and penalties are combined. A follow‐up lottery experiment confirms that both loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity influenced the performance.     

人口迁移对90年代珠江三角洲人口发展的影响

90年代大量人口向珠江三角洲的迁移集聚，不仅使总人口快速增长、人间分布发生变化、城市化水平显著提高，而且降低了人口性别比、延缓了人口老龄化进程、及受高等教育程度人口比重的提高。虽然人口增速全国最高，但以珠江三角洲为核心的广东省，国内生产总值年均增长速度却低于东、中部部分省市，说明劳动密集型产业的迅速发展是迁移人口迅速增长的主要原因。大量人口迁入，增加了对环境的压力和产业结构调整的难度。建议通过产业政策和区域政策引导、加快城乡劳动市场一体化的步伐、加强对企业经营和劳动用工的调控、健全社会保障体系等，促进提升产业结构和技术结构，缩小区域差异。     

农村人口城市化是实现主体功能区价值目标的根本途径

即将实施的国家主体功能区划提出了一个重大的发展命题,即中国的人口配置和促进农村人口城市化。文章因此分析了农业农村发展的历史局限性和"农业移民"道路的终结。通过对中国广大农村尤其西北、西南地区地理环境的研究表明,当地既没有发展农村小城镇的条件也没有发展大规模城市化工业化区域的条件,中国要实现农村人口城市化就必须实行大跨度的农村人口向城市的迁徙。同时指出,中国人口城市化进程中来自农村人口跨区域流动的机械增长比例很小,其障碍因素很多,并提出了促进农村人口城市化的政策建议。     

地中海联盟移民问题及政策研究

地中海联盟国家之间的移民问题是地中海地区的一个重要议题。从地中海南岸和东岸流向地中海北岸欧盟国家的移民数量众多,且呈现不断上升的趋势。这些移民一方面对欧盟经济发展做出了积极贡献,另一方面,也给移民接收国带来了许多社会问题。为解决地中海地区的移民问题,欧盟与地中海沿岸国家积极开展合作,形成了欧盟、地区、国家多层级的移民政策体系,但其收效并不理想。尽管如此,地中海联盟移民政策体系对中国移民政策发展仍有一定的启发意义。     

地方国有上市公司持股商业银行动机和效应研究*

本文研究地方政府或地方国资委控股国有上市公司（地方国有上市公司）持股商业银行的动机和效应。研究发现，相比于其他国有上市公司，地方国有上市公司更偏好持股商业银行，且多为同地区的商业银行；当公司注册地为省会城市、金融业市场化水平较低、地方官员任职年龄较小时，上述关系更加显著；当政府发布相关促进银行业发展政策后，地方国有上市公司持股商业银行的概率显著上升。除此之外，本文对经济后果进行分析发现，持股商业银行提升了地方金融业水平以及地方官员晋升概率。本文的研究结论表明，地方国有上市公司持股商业银行的经济行为更多地反映了政府动机和地方官员晋升激励动机。     

地方国有上市公司持股商业银行动机和效应研究

本文研究地方政府或地方国资委控股国有上市公司(地方国有上市公司)持股商业银行的动机和效应。研究发现,相比于其他国有上市公司,地方国有上市公司更偏好持股商业银行,且多为同地区的商业银行;当公司注册地为省会城市、金融业市场化水平较低、地方官员任职年龄较小时,上述关系更加显著;当政府发布相关促进银行业发展政策后,地方国有上市公司持股商业银行的概率显著上升。除此之外,本文对经济后果进行分析发现,持股商业银行提升了地方金融业水平以及地方官员晋升概率。本文的研究结论表明,地方国有上市公司持股商业银行的经济行为更多地反映了政府动机和地方官员晋升激励动机。     

我国西部地区乡村坡地聚落迁移的过程与效应

坡地聚落是西部地区在特殊的山区条件下人地关系长期作用的表现形式。随着西部地区的人口增长,区域人地系统的人口压力日趋紧张,导致坡地聚落表现出向上、向下迁移的不同迁移过程,以适应调整中的人地关系。通过分析坡地聚落的空间迁移过程,文章认为应通过市场机制为主、政府扶持为辅的方式,引导人口和聚落向下迁移,减轻人口压力,促进西部地区的整体发展。     

我国的地方经济:制度特征与发展不平衡

区域性是地理学的独特视角,反映在国民经济的研究中就是对区域经济和“地方”的关注。我国的地方经济和地方政府在历史进程和社会经济发展的各个阶段上都占有十分重要的地位,改革开放的成功在很大程度上也得益于地方经济。针对多年来对地方政府和地方经济的不断指责,文章认为有必要从理论上阐述我国地方经济存在和发展的规律,其中,有我国地方政权的历史基础、地方经济的制度基础和在我国形成强势政府与强势经济的制度条件。发展不平衡是地方经济研究的又一个重点领域,但是与其他学科不同的是,地理学更多地要从地理条件方面去解释差异。地方经济发展的差异在很大程度上取决于区域开发的地理成本,恶劣的自然地理条件、偏僻的经济地理位置都会导致地区开发成本的高昂并影响地方经济的发育。文章主要讨论了地理环境和地理位置所导致的区域差异。     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EFFORT, ORGANIZATION, AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN CHINESE FACTORIES

Production reports from a set of Chinese factories reveal very rapid productivity growth from 1980 to 1991. To understand the underlying factors, the effects of work effort and labor organization are separated from the productivity estimates. Data analysis reveals that these two effects jointly explain most of the measured productivity growth during this period. This result suggests that (1) very substantial productivity growth can be realized for economies in the take-off stage even without substantial pure technological advancement, and (2) in reforming the Chinese state factories, there will have to be a more difficult second stage to confront their technological backwardness.     

FUTURE POLICY UNCERTAINTY, EFFORT, AND THE RESPONSIVENESS OF OUTPUT TO MARKET SIGNALS

This paper analyses the consequences of future policy uncertainty on the allocation of effort in an economy undergoing reforms. We demonstrate that uncertainty regarding future tax policies may reduce present effort, and will also reduce the responsiveness of output to productivity shocks and other market signals. The discussion has relevance for cases in which privatization will make present managers of firms the future owners and residual claimants to future output. An expectation that the purchasing price of the firm will have a positive relationship to present output will induce the manager to reduce contemporaneous effort, and uncertainty regarding the relationship will also depress present managerial effort.     

CROSSING THE BORDER AND MIGRATION DURATION

Policies to deter illegal entry and reduce the number of undocumented immigrants have a complex impact on migration patterns, border crossings, and duration. However, studies generally assume the method of crossing into the United States is exogenous with respect to migration duration. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, this paper finds that the migrant's decision to hire a coyote (smuggler) to cross the border is endogenous with respect to duration. Instrumental variable estimates provide evidence that migrants who incur the cost of hiring a coyote have longer migration durations as they need to work longer in the United States. The migrants most likely to hire coyotes have less education, little migration experience, and/or come from rural communities. Results suggest that continuing to increase guest worker programs could actually decrease the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States by eliminating the need for coyotes which would reduce migration durations. This would better utilize the immigrant population in the United States by encouraging immigrants to stay while employed and to migrate home when unemployed, with the knowledge they can later return. Reducing coyote use would also reduce income flowing to Mexican cartels which have profited from human smuggling. (JEL O15, J61, J64)     

基于第五次全国人口普查的河南省人口与可持续发展研究

河南省是我国第一人口大省,加强人口管理具有特殊的重要意义。文章在对建国以来河南省人口发展与人口管理简要回顾的基础上,运用第五次全国人口普查有关河南省的资料分析指出,人口规模庞大、人口文化素质偏低、人口老龄化进程加快、城镇化水平低是河南省人口的突出特点,就业压力大、人才的培养水平较低、人才管理的体制和机制不健全是目前人口管理工作存在的主要问题。最后从观念与制度创新、继续控制人口总量、进一步提高人口素质、加快城镇化进程、注意老龄化问题、广辟就业渠道等6个方面进行了河南省人口管理与建设的对策分析。     

URBAN POPULATION AND AMENITIES: THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL OF LOCATION

We develop a neoclassical general equilibrium model to explain cross-metro variation in population and density. We provide new methods to estimate traded and nontraded productivities, and elasticities of housing and land supply, using density and land area data. From wage and housing cost indices, the model explains half of U.S. density and population variation and finds that quality of life determines location choices more than trade productivity; productivity and factor substitution in housing matter most, but are weak in nicer areas. Relaxing land use regulations would increase population in the West, raising both quality of life and productivity experienced by residents.