Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

The influence of immigration and international tourism on the demand for imported food products

The role of immigration and international tourism in food product imports, as two factors which potentially influence the (trans-) formation of tastes in a country, is theoretically and empirically analysed. In using an econometric error-correction specification of an import demand function, the scale of the impact of these two factors is estimated for the case of Germany (annual data from 1967 to 1990). The results show that, while aggregate food import demand from India, Thailand, China and Turkey is inelastic with regard to migration to Germany and international travel activities of Germans to these destinations, the estimated average elasticities for imports of wine, cheese and processed/preserved vegetables from France and Italy are all well above unity, thus suggesting that immigration and international tourism may indeed affect the import demand for certain food products.     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.     

Food Demand in Russia: Heterogeneous Consumer Segments over Time

The Russian food system has undergone substantial changes. However, knowledge on how economic transition has affected the structural parameters of food demand is lacking. Based on a two‐stage LES‐LA/AIDS model and annual panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1995–2010), we provide a comprehensive set of food demand elasticities for Russia along two dimensions. First, we estimate demand parameters for three characteristic time periods in order to trace changes during transition. Second, to account for the Russian population's diversity, we derive elasticities for five different consumer segments. These groups are established by a cluster analysis based on households' food purchases. Our findings suggest that demand for food is far from satiated in Russia. We find generally high unconditional expenditure and own‐price elasticities for food. Both expenditure and own‐price elasticities show slight decreases in absolute terms over time. Low expenditure elasticities for staple foods like bread or cereals and high values for luxury goods such as meat, alcohol and tobacco suggest considerable changes in the composition of food baskets with further income growth. Results indicate that food production at home loses in importance while more affluent households in particular increase their demand for food consumption away from home.     

Food demand elasticities for Australia

There is renewed interest in robust estimates of food demand elasticities at a disaggregated level not only to analyse the impact of changing food preferences on the agricultural sector, but also to establish the likely impact of pricing incentives on households. Using data drawn from two national Household Expenditure Surveys covering the periods 1998/1999 and 2003/2004, and adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach that addresses the zero observations problem, this paper estimates a food demand system for 15 food categories for Australia. The categories cover the standard food items that Australian households demand routinely. Own‐price, cross‐price and expenditure elasticity estimates of the Marshallian and Hicksian types have been derived for all categories. The parameter estimates obtained in this study represent the first integrated set of food demand elasticities based on a highly disaggregated food demand system for Australia, and all accord with economic intuition.     

Demand for meat and dairy products by Turkish households: a Bayesian censored system approach

We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present.     

Inter‐ and intra‐seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. This study makes estimations of monthly (i.e., seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for the world's principal staple food crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra‐annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected food supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short‐term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short‐run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.40; price volatility tends to reduce acreage for some of the crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of an essence for acreage response. The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in the northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.     

A Microeconometric Analysis of the U.S. Meat Demand

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on U.S. meat demand are estimated using the newly released 1987–88 USDA household food consumption survey data. The USDA survey for the first time included variables reflecting respondents' concerns for health and diet information. A hybrid demand system, which combines a modified generalized addilog system and a level version Rotterdam demand system, is developed as the analytical framework. The micro econometric analysis takes into consideration the consumer selection problem, the missing-price problem, and the aggregation and quality variation problem. The most significant household characteristic and socio-economic variables are region, ethnic background, household size, urbanization, food planner, received health information, female household head employment status and proportion of food expenditure on away-from-home consumption. The results support the speculation of other time-series meat demand studies claiming both health concerns and convenience are the reasons for changes in consumer preference in favor of poultry and fish and in disfavor of red meat.     

Alternative Methods for Estimating Price Elasticities of Imports

Abstract

This article compares three commonly-used methods for estimating import price elasticities: (1) trade-weighted price elasticities of domestic demand and supply along with price transmission; (2) direct estimates based on ad hoc import demands; and (3) Armington model estimates. Using data from El Salvador's grain markets (white maize, red beans, and rice), the results indicate that the second method provides the most reliable estimates and that the Armington procedure may not be appropriate for estimations of this type. However, the first method offers the best guesstimates to assess potential rather than historical import response as trade is liberalized.     

Do the BRICs and Emerging Markets Differ in their Agrifood Imports?

This study develops an import demand model to explore the role of income in explaining the trade performance of low‐, middle‐ and high‐income countries with a special emphasis on Brazil, Russia, India and China – the BRIC economies. The study estimates the impact of the growth in per capita income on the trade of agrifood products using data from 52 countries and 20 agrifood products for the years 1990–2006. The results suggest that China, Russia and Brazil now have more income elastic import demands than other middle‐income countries. Conversely, the income elasticities of import demand in India are similar to other low‐income countries and for the most part statistically equal to zero.     

Scale Effects and Mark-ups in the US Food and Fibre Industries: Capital Investment and Import Penetration Impacts

Capital investment patterns and import penetration are often alleged to influence firms' costs and prices, and thus economic performance. We examine the impacts of these factors on measures of scale economies, input demand/composition, and market power in the US food and fibre industries. Flexible variable cost functions incorporating quasi-fixity of three categories of private (internal) capital and two external technological and trade (import) factors represent the cost structures of the two industries. Pricing equations, based on inverse demand functions including import prices, represent output decisions. Cost and demand elasticities constructed from this model indicate reduced manufacturing costs from technical and trade, scale and capital effects. This increased cost efficiency arises largely from materials savings in the textiles industry and reduced labour use in the food industry. Mark-up behaviour is exhibited for most of the sample period in the textiles industry, and neither industry appears heavily affected by import prices.     

The Demand for Organic and Conventional Produce in London,UK: A System Approach

The majority of studies on consumer demand for organic products neglect the presence of non‐organic competitors, ignoring their effect on consumer demand for organics. This article uses a demand system which includes both organic and non‐organic fruits and vegetables, with actual (as opposed to stated) data for household purchases. Estimation of our model provides empirical evidence on the interrelationships between organic and non‐organic products, as the relevant cross‐price elasticities. Own‐price elasticities indicate that organic fruits and vegetables are more price elastic than their non‐organic counterparts, and that lower social class households with children have the most own‐price elastic demand. Cross‐price elasticities indicate relatively strong loyalty to organic products.     

Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system

Rapid income growth and urbanisation could significantly change the composition of the food basket in many emerging economies. This study estimates a demand system, including 15 major food items in Vietnam, with multiyear household survey data. We find a large variation in the estimated price elasticities (–0.05 to –0.88) and expenditure elasticities (–0.16 to 2.56). Food types, urban status and income groups can explain this variation. We also find that the staple food, rice, is already an inferior good for rich urban households in Vietnam. Moreover, food preferences are evolving away from rice but towards animal proteins (fish, pork, chicken, eggs and milk), fruits and vegetables, irrespective of urban status and income groups. As the Vietnam economy continues to grow with a doubling of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade, per capita rice consumption in both urban and rural areas and across different income groups will continue to decline, whereas demand for other high‐value products will rise. Thus, government policy should focus on encouraging demand‐oriented food production. In addition, crop diversification at the farm level needs to improve substantially to meet the rising demand for these food products due to income growth and urbanisation.     

Estimating Price Elasticities of Food Trade Functions: How Relevant is the CES‐based Gravity Approach?

The main objective of this article is to examine econometric estimates of price elasticities of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences. We test all these assumptions using intra‐European trade in cheese. In general, the assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our dataset. The bias induced in the estimated price elasticities is ambiguous.     

Growth in horticultural trade: Japan's market for developing countries

This paper explores possibilities and opportunities of expansion of horticultural exports from developing countries through an investigation on a rapidly growing market, Japan, as an example among major promising markets. In this paper six horticultural commodities are selected to analyze, emphasizing on exports from developing countries. Observations on Japan's horticultural imports make us presume that consumers differentiate products by place of production. Therefore, import behavior is considered in a two-stage budgeting procedure. The second-stage demands for imports from different sources are specified in an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and estimated statistically as well as the first-stage import demand equations. The estimated second-stage AIDS equations show that the magnitude of own-price coefficients varies with the source of imports and so does that of expenditure coefficients. Therefore, the characteristics of import demand on a commodity basis, which are captured by the estimates of the first-stage import demand equations, are not equally transmitted to the demand for imports by source in each commodity. The estimated coefficients of the first-stage import demand and the second-stage AIDS equations were combined to obtain the total effects of price and income changes on imports by source. The calculated own-price elasticities are greater than one in absolute value in ten of the 15 cases and so are the calculated income elasticities in twelve cases. The large elasticities promise suppliers that they benefit from Japan's income growth and that they increase their earnings if they can reduce the price by lowering their costs. However, factors in non-price competition also play import roles in the import growth. In this paper, the importance of sales promotions by exporters and preshipment inspections was indicated in the cases of mangoes and cut flowers. Other factors such as market structure and public infrastructure for post-harvest activities were also discussed.     

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

Food consumption patterns in Asia show a trend away from staples toward high protein food derived from animal and dairy products, fruit and vegetables, fats and oils. Such changes in food consumption patterns are due to rising incomes, urbanization, globalization, and modernization of marketing infrastructure. In this article, we analyze the demand for the animal‐derived food group comprising meat (chicken, beef, pork, and mutton), eggs and fish, and derive income and price elasticities in seven Asian countries using the system‐wide approach. Demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry properties were tested and found to be compatible with the data. Our findings reveal that animal‐derived food as a group is a necessity (except in Taiwan) and its demand is price inelastic (except in Taiwan and Sri Lanka). The implied unconditional demand elasticities reveal that, in all countries (except beef in Japan and Taiwan), chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs and fish (except in Taiwan) are all necessities and the demand for all types of animal‐derived food in all seven countries are mostly price inelastic. The cross‐price elasticity estimates are mostly found to be positive, meaning that there is a higher degree of substitutability between chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs, and fish.     

Demand for dairy products in Mexico

Mexico is the world's largest importer of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector. The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non-fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk. Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports.     

Quantifying the structure of food demand in China: An econometric approach

This article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban China. The analysis is based on household‐level expenditure survey data for two cross‐sectional surveys of Chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003. Pre‐committed components of commodity demands, that are insensitive to economic variables, are explored. We use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system (GQAIDS) for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS), and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure (FIML) accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption (FAH). We also use quality‐adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice. Furthermore, we derive GQAIDS elasticity formulas, and estimate income elasticities without restrictions. The results partially support the hypothesis that an average Chinese household has incorporated elements of Western diet (fine grains) into traditional Chinese food diet over time. Moreover, the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study.     

Lithuania's food demand during economic transition

The linear approximate version of the almost ideal demand system (LA‐AIDS) model is estimated using data from the Lithuanian household budget survey (HBS) covering the period from July 1992 to December 1994. Price and real expenditure elasticities for 12 food groups were estimated based on the estimated coefficients of the model. Very little or nothing is known about the demand parameters of Lithuania and other former socialist countries, so the results are of intrinsic interest. Estimated expenditure elasticities were positive and statistically significant for all food groups, while all own‐price elasticities were negative and statistically significant, except for that of eggs which was insignificant. Results suggest that Lithuanian household consumption did respond to price and real income changes during their transition to a market‐oriented economy.