大数据思维在国库统计分析中的应用

人民银行国库部门作为联系中央银行系统、财政系统、税务征管系统和银行等金融机构的媒介,是政府各部门信息的集中汇集地。相关部门间大数据的整合、挖掘与应用为国库统计分析辅助政府决策、支持重点税源企业、小微企业、进出口企业的政策制定提供了可能。文章以构建"国库大数据基础信息中心"为核心,探索建立人行国库与业务往来部门之间大数据信息共享系统,着重分析大数据在国库统计分析中的应用,为整合部门资源、充分利用大数据技术、深化拓展国库统计分析提供相关参考。     

论横向联网下的国库资金风险管理

国库横向联网系统的推广,改变了传统国库工作模式,加速了资金周转,但同时也出现了新的国库资金风险。加强国库资金风险管理,应该不断完善国库相关制度、加强数据信息传输安全管理、改进事后监督检查方式、建立计算机风险应急机制以及提高国库人员素质。     

实施国库数据集中降低基层央行系统风险

国库会计数据集中是以办理国库会计核算业务的机构为国库会计核算主体,成立全国国库业务处理中心,由中心统一组织实施国库会计核算业务处理,并实现国库会计业务数据集中存储,信息共享使用的一种处理方式。目前,在国库核算上我们一直采用分散式数据管理模式,以湖北省恩施自治州为例,分散管理的方式不可避免地表现出以下弊端。     

国库数据集中及横向联网模式下对加强国库统计工作的思考

近年来,随着国库电子信息化建设步伐的不断加强,财税库行横向联网系统功能逐步拓展和延伸,部分地区已相继进行了国库数据集中模式的尝试和探索,加快了财政资金的入库速度,提高了财政资金的使用效益,实现了财政、税务、海关、国库等部门之间信息资源共享,为国库统计分析工作实现新的突破创造了有利条件. 横向联网系统建设和国库数据集中的不断推进,对国库统计分析利用现代化信息技术优势、挖掘网络数据信息资源,不断提高统计分析质量和水平.对强化国库现金管理、服务地方经济发展等具有重要意义.     

国库数据集中模式的研究与设计

顺应信息技术日益融合的趋势,研究设计我国国库数据库集中或大区城集中式的业务管理模式,将国库业务处理系统升级改造成为新一代业务处理信息系统,实现数据、应用、服务和安全管理的大集中,已成为国库业务信息化的必然趋势。本文拟从国库数据集中的目标、内涵、原则及可行性分析出发,对国库数据集中方案的设计进行选择论证。     

国库统计分析中的大数据运用研究

大数据时代来临,大数据及大数据技术在各行各业产生了巨大的社会价值,并丰富了宏观经济分析的数据基础和分析手段。国库数据具备大数据的主要特征,有运用大数据方法的现实需要。在国库统计分析中,大数据方法能够运用于国库资金运行分析、宏观经济走势预测、服务宏观经济决策,对不断提升国库统计分析质量,提升央行经理国库的履职效能有重要意义。因而,建议逐步完善国库大数据发展环境、信息共享机制、信息系统功能。     

国库会计数据集中后核算管理的变化和风险分析

"国库会计数据集中系统"在实现"预算收人直达目的国库、预算支出即时到账"国库业务处理的目标的同时,同时引发了新的国库资金运行风险。基于此,本文通过对国库会计数据集中后核算管理的变化和风险分析,对如何强化目前的国库风险应对路径进行了探索。     

新上线的《国库数据集中系统》事后监督面临新挑战

2009年7月1日《国库数据集中系统》在吉林省正式上线,数据集中系统是实现国库会计业务处理、数据集中存储、信息共享使用的计算机应用系统。新系统上线也为如何做好事后监督工作提出了新的课题。     

大数据技术在国库退库业务中的应用探索

国家一系列减税降费政策和个税改革方案的落地实施,在为企业纾困和改善民生的同时,也给人民银行各级国库业务带来巨大变化,特别是国库退库业务量呈指数级增长。在人民银行各级国库现有业务模式和人员结构不变的前提下,国库退库业务量的骤增给退库业务审核、管理监督、数据统计分析等工作带来巨大挑战。文章通过分析当前国库退库业务面临的挑战,结合大数据技术的特点,探索应用大数据技术解决国库退库业务中存在的问题,对提高退库效率、规范退库管理、加强审核监督、完善统计分析,进而推动国库业务高质量发展具有很大的现实意义。     

构建信息平台,打造分析品牌 提升基层央行现代国库服务水平

随着国库体制的改革和职能的转变,国库统计分析的服务职能日渐凸显。而目前的TMIS系统（国家金库管理信息管理系统）在运行过程中,有一定的局限性,缺少分行业、分产业以及重点税源企业的数据,且由于支出归口问题,支出分析受限。财税库信息各自为政,较为分散。为整合数据资源,充分实现数据共享,人民银行益阳市中心支行国库依托集中支付系统,搭建财税库统计信息共享平台,达到日常分析的智能化与深度研究的自助式有机结合,提升了国库统计分析的科学性和前瞻性，为提升益阳国库服务能力提供了又一新的载体。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.