Value Relevance of Inflation-adjusted Equity and Income

This paper investigates the role incremental information content of inflation-adjusted data plays in explaining the market value of equity and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We show the effect of inflation accounting application on basic financial ratios, and we test the value relevance of inflation-adjusted and historical cost-based book value and earnings. The findings show that inflation adjustment affects financial ratios significantly, which may create different risk assessments for the selected firms. Furthermore, the results indicate that both inflation-adjusted and historical cost-based earnings and book values are significantly value relevant. The two sets of data are not to be used as substitutes, but, rather, they are complementary. For this reason, inflation-adjusted data should be required as supplementary data to the historical cost information rather than in place of historical cost data.     

Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis

We examine the ability of selected accounting and audit quality variables measured in a period prior to the financial crisis (i.e., the four quarters of 2006), to predict banks that subsequently failed during the financial crisis. We employ two sets of samples from the US: a troubled banks sample that includes banks that failed in or after 2007 as well as banks classified as being troubled based on profitability, loan quality, and balance sheet position in 2007, and a full sample that includes all banks with available required data. Using the troubled banks sample, we identify six reliable predictors of bank failure: auditor type, auditor industry specialization, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, growth in loans, and loan mix. For the larger full sample of banks, we identify the following ten predictors of bank failure: auditor type, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, nonperforming loans, loan loss provisions, growth in commercial loans, growth in real estate loans, growth in overall loans, loan mix, and whether the bank is a public bank.     

The impact of family-firm structure and board composition on corporate transparency: Evidence based on segment disclosures in Malaysia

The aim of this study is to contribute to the growing literature on the quality of accounting disclosures by family firms by investigating whether the alignment (entrenchment) effect leads to high (low) corporate transparency. Unlike previous studies, this study also examines the relationship between board composition and corporate transparency by distinguishing between the two types of nonexecutive directors, namely independent and affiliated directors. Using the enhanced segment disclosures by Malaysian firms in 2001/2002 as a proxy of corporate transparency, the results indicate that family firms are more inclined to disclose all the required items for the primary basis of segment reporting, consistent with Ali, Chen, and Radhakrishnan (2007) and Wang (2006). The result also indicates that firms with higher proportion of affiliated directors are more likely to make greater segment disclosures. However, no evidence is found to support the contention that independent directors and institutional investors promote corporate transparency, consistent with previous Malaysian studies.     

An examination of the effects of management earnings forecast form and explanations on financial analyst forecast revisions

Using a sample of 978 quarterly management earnings-per-share forecasts made during the period 1993 to 1999, we document that financial analyst revisions to management earnings forecasts are a function of management forecast form. More precise forecasts (measured three different ways) lead to greater revision of financial analyst consensus EPS forecasts for a given level of unexpected earnings as predicted by Kim and Verrecchia (1991) and Bayesian adjustment models. Also, consistent with our arguments, maximum forecasts are interpreted as bad news by analysts. Our results, while consistent with theory, are inconsistent with recent experimental studies which do not reject the null hypothesis of no effect of management earnings forecast form on the association between unexpected earnings and financial analyst forecast revisions. We also re-examine Baginski, Hassell, and Kimbrough's (2004) finding that attributions used to explain management forecasts affect the reaction to the forecast using analyst data. Consistent with their findings using stock prices, the attribution presence (especially external attributions) increases financial analyst revisions pursuant to management forecasts.     

Are incentives for earnings management reflected in the ERC: Large sample evidence

In this study, I examine the effect of exposure to earnings management (EM) incentives on the earnings response coefficient (ERC). Drawing from several anecdotes and normative arguments about the implications of managers' incentives for investor perception, I predict and test that exposure to EM incentives is negatively associated with the ERC. I find that ERC is reliably lower for firms with elevated exposure to EM incentives, holding constant the effects of actual EM and other factors that affect the returns–earnings relation. Furthermore, the effect of the incentive exposure on cash flows as well as on total accruals is reliably negative. These results are robust across alternative price– and returns–earnings specifications, and are insensitive to the inclusion of other measures of earnings quality. Additional analysis shows that the effect of such incentives on the ERC is more pronounced at higher levels of institutional stock ownership. However, a certain class of institutional owners – transient institutions – are less sensitive to the implications of such incentives for earnings quality.     

Disclosure and cost of equity capital in emerging markets: The Brazilian case

In this paper, we conjecture that the weak association between disclosure and cost of equity capital found in the literature (Botosan, 1997) can be caused by the high-level corporate disclosure environment found in the United States. We hypothesize that in low-level corporate disclosure environments the variability in disclosure practices across firms will be larger than in the United States, and, consequently, the marginal effect of voluntary disclosure policies will be higher. Using a newly developed Brazilian Corporate Disclosure Index (BCDI), our results confirm this hypothesis. Disclosure is strongly associated with ex ante cost of equity capital for Brazilian firms. The results are more pronounced for firms with less analyst coverage and low ownership concentration, as expected.     

Hometown advantage: The effects of monitoring institution location on financial reporting discretion

We examine the impact of institutional ownership on financial reporting discretion, focusing on whether the impact varies with institutions' cost of acquiring monitoring information. Using geographic distance between the firm and the institutional investor as a proxy for the cost of acquiring monitoring information, we find that corporate managers are less likely to use financial reporting discretion in the presence of local monitoring institutions than distant monitoring institutions. We also find that the impact of monitoring institutions on financial reporting discretion varies with the costs and benefits of financial reporting discretion.     

Analyzing the German accounting triad — “Accounting Premium” for IAS/IFRS and U.S. GAAP vis-à-vis German GAAP?

This paper critically examines the impact of voluntary adoption of Internationally Accepted Accounting Principles (IAAP, i.e., IAS/IFRS and U.S. GAAP) on the cost of equity capital in Germany. We find that (1) overall cost of equity-capital estimates in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for companies applying IAAP are significantly lower compared to those applying German GAAP, (2) an enhanced multi-factor model which incorporates the accounting-regime differences (called “GM model”) absorbs the cost of equity-capital differences, and (3) changes of the institutional background in Germany and of the accounting standards lead to different cost of equity capital effects for subperiods of the 1998–2004 voluntary-adoption period, while particularly controlling for effects like self-selection, cross-listing, and New Market (Neuer Markt) listing.The central thesis advanced in this paper is that changes in the accounting standards and the institutional infrastructure can influence the impact of applying IAAP. Therefore, we suggest incorporating an accounting factor into the cost of equity-capital analysis.     

The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations

The volatility information found in high-frequency exchange rate quotations and in implied volatilities is compared by estimating ARCH models for DM/$ returns. Reuters quotations are used to calculate five-minute returns and hence hourly and daily estimates of realised volatility that can be included in equations for the conditional variances of hourly and daily returns. The ARCH results show that there is a significant amount of information in five-minute returns that is incremental to options information when estimating hourly variances. The same conclusion is obtained by an out-of-sample comparison of forecasts of hourly realised volatility.     

Perks and the informativeness of stock prices in the Chinese market

While the literature shows that perks can affect firm values positively or negatively, we argue that firms with higher perks are more likely to be associated with a lower quality of financial reporting, which, in turn, can affect the informativeness of stock prices. Based on hand-collected data on perks from Chinese listed firms, we find that firms with lower perks are associated with higher informativeness of stock prices (or lower R-square). Moreover, the positive association between perks and R-square is shown to be weaker for firms with higher financial reporting quality through audit and earnings quality measures.     

The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns: New evidence from newspaper coverage

Previous literature has produced weak evidence to support the hypothesis that real economic news affects stock returns. This is, in part, attributed to the difficulty of measuring how investors interpret macroeconomic announcements in different economic environments. In this paper, we choose a different approach of measuring macroeconomic news to better estimate its effect on stock returns. Since newspaper stories provide an interpretation of the statistical releases, we choose newspaper stories as our measure of news. Our findings indicate that news about GDP and unemployment does affect stock returns.     

Mandating IFRS in an Unfavorable Environment: The Greek Experience

There is an ongoing debate concerning the efficacy of mandating high-quality accounting standards in unfavorable economies with inadequate institutional infrastructures. Greece provides us with an example of an unfavorable jurisdiction for enforcement of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) due to its code-law tradition, bank orientation, concentrated corporate ownership, poor shareholders' protection, and low regulatory quality. Assuming that these conditions undermine managers' and auditors' incentives for high-quality financial reporting, how likely is it that mandating IFRS in such an environment will be effective? To address this research question, we explore potential effects of IFRS enforcement on two salient properties of accounting income: value relevance and conditional conservatism. Our results indicate only minor improvements in both of them after IFRS implementation.     

Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns

We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs approximately as well as Fama and French’s (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.     

Strategic trading by index funds and liquidity provision around S&P 500 index additions

We examine the trades of index funds and other institutions around S&P 500 index additions. We find index funds begin rebalancing their portfolios with the announcement of composition changes and do not fully establish their positions until weeks after the effective date. Trading away from the effective date is more prevalent for stocks with lower levels of liquidity and among large index funds, which is consistent with index funds accepting higher tracking error in order to reduce the price impact of their trades. Small and mid-cap funds provide liquidity to index funds around additions, and added stocks with a greater proportion of these natural liquidity providers experience lower inclusion returns.     

The effect of changes in ownership structure on performance: Evidence from the thrift industry

Restrictions on stock ownership may harm a company's performance, because restrictions prevent owners from choosing an optimal structure. We examine the stock-price performance and ownership structure of a sample of thrift institutions that converted from mutual to stock ownership. We find that after conversion and the expiration of ownership-structure restrictions, firm performance improves significantly, and the portions of the firm owned by managers and the firm's employee stock ownership plan increase. Changes in performance are positively associated with changes in ownership by managers, but negatively associated with changes in ownership by employee stock ownership plans.     

Detecting the presence of insider trading via structural break tests

The occurrence of abnormal returns before the unscheduled announcement of price sensitive information is a potential indicator of insider trading. We identify insider trading with a structural change in the intercept of an extended capital asset pricing model. To detect such a change we introduce a consistent timing structural break test (CTSB) based upon a U-statistic type process. Unlike the traditional CUSUM test, the CTSB test provides a consistent estimator of the timing of a break in the intercept that occurs across the whole evaluation period. We apply our test to a rich data set covering 370 price sensitive announcements relating to FTSE 350 companies. Our test is able to detect potential insider trading far more reliably than the standard CUSUM test. We also show that the majority of suspected insider trading takes place in the 25 days prior to the release of market sensitive information.     

Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?

Banks can decrease their future capital inadequacy concerns by reducing lending. The capital crunch theory predicts that lending is particularly sensitive to regulatory capital constraints during recessions, when regulatory capital declines and external-financing frictions increase. Regulators and policy makers argue that the current loan loss provisioning rules magnify this pro-cyclicality. Exploiting variation in the delay in expected loss recognition under the current incurred loss model, we find that reductions in lending during recessionary relative to expansionary periods are lower for banks that delay less. We also find that smaller delays reduce the recessionary capital crunch effect. These results hold across management quality partitions.     

Investor type trading behavior and trade performance: Evidence from the Thai stock market

This paper examines the trading behavior and decomposes the trading performance of foreign, individual and institutional investors as well as proprietary traders in a dynamic emerging stock market, the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Foreign investors follow a positive feedback, momentum strategy and are good short term market timers but have poor security selection performance in poor markets, thus suggesting that they have a macro (market timing) but not a micro (security selection) informational advantage relative to local investors. Institutions and proprietary traders have poor security selection trading performance. Individuals display herding behavior and have fairly good security selection performance, but individual investors appear to compensate proprietary traders for the provision of short term liquidity by proprietary traders, so individuals' security selection gains are canceled out by market timing losses.     

A note on the returns from minimum variance investing

Disappointed with the performance of market weighted benchmark portfolios yet skeptical about the merits of active portfolio management, investors in recent years turned to alternative index definitions. Minimum variance investing is one of these popular concepts. I show in this paper that the portfolio construction process behind minimum variance investing implicitly picks up risk-based pricing anomalies. In other words the minimum variance tends to hold low beta and low residual risk stocks. Long/short portfolios based on these characteristics have been associated in the empirical literature with risk adjusted outperformance. This paper shows that 83% of the variation of the minimum variance portfolio excess returns (relative to a capitalization weighted alternative) can be attributed to the FAMA/FRENCH factors as well as to the returns on two characteristic anomaly portfolios. All regression coefficients (factor exposures) are highly significant, stable over the estimation period and correspond remarkably well with our economic intuition. The paper also shows that a direct combination of market weighted benchmark portfolio and risk based characteristic portfolios will provide a statistically significant improvement over the indirect pickup via the minimum variance portfolio.     

An empirical assessment of reinsurance risk

We analyse the effect of failing reinsurance cover on the stability of Dutch insurers. As insurers often reinsure themselves with other (re)insurers, a firm's loss could spread contagiously through the sector. Using a unique and confidential data set on reinsurance exposures, we gain insight into the reinsurance market structure and perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. Considering entities on a standalone basis, we find no evidence of systemic risk in the Netherlands, even if multiple reinsurance companies fail simultaneously. At group level our analysis points to the contagion risk of in-house reinsurance structures, given that such in-house reinsurance parties are generally not higher capitalised than other group members.