An economic analysis of the possibility of reducing pesticides in French field crops

The paper aims to study the effects of reducing pesticide use by farmers in the arable sector in France and the feasibility of a policy target of reducing pesticide use by half. The originality of the approach is to combine statistical data and expert knowledge to describe low-input alternative techniques at the national level. These data are used in a mathematical programming model to simulate the effect on land use, production and farmers' income of achieving different levels of pesticide reduction. The results show that reducing pesticide use by 30% could be possible without reducing farmers' income. We also estimate the levels of tax on pesticides necessary to achieve different levels of reduction of pesticide use and the effect of an incentive mechanism combining a pesticide tax with subsidies for low-input techniques.     

农村社会养老保险制度分析——以北京市大兴区为例

农村社会养老保险能否建立并保持可持续发展,仅仅依靠需求动机是不够的,还需要政府的态度、财政能力、农民的意愿、制度设计的合理性等多方面条件。结合北京市大兴区农村社会养老保险试点方案,对上述问题作了简要分析。农村全面实行社会养老保险制度的时机还不够成熟。从防范老年贫困风险的角度出发,对处于贫困线以下的人群提供最低收入保障,尽快建立农村最低生活保障制度和完善农村社会救助制度是目前大多数农业地区比较理性的选择。     

中国BT抗虫棉的收益、成本和影响

本文利用1999年以来关于抗虫棉采用情况的持续调查数据,检验了Bt抗虫棉的生产效果。分析表明,采用Bt抗虫棉能够提高棉花的产量;更重要的是,种植Bt抗虫棉的农户由于减少了农药和劳动力投入而增加了收入,同时,对改善环境和保护农民健康也有正面影响。中国的经验可以被其他发展中国家所借鉴。     

Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator

This article uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of a reduction in the means‐tested benefit taper, or withdrawal, rates in Australia to 30 per cent. That is, all taper rates of 50 per cent and 70 per cent in the March 1998 benefit system are reduced to 30 per cent, while leaving all basic benefit levels unchanged. This change is therefore expected to ‘flatten’ the tax structure by reducing the high marginal tax rates applying to those with relatively low incomes and increasing the marginal tax rates of medium incomes. Simulations in which all individuals are assumed to remain at their pre‐reform labour supply levels are compared with behavioural simulations in which the majority of individuals are free to adjust the number of hours worked. The results reflect only the supply side of the labour market. The database used is the 1997‐98 Survey of Income and Housing Costs, so that weekly incomes are based on the financial year 1997‐98. The comparison shows that, for sole parents, accounting for behavioural effects of the reform results in a lower estimated expenditure for government, whereas for couples, accounting for behavioural effects results in a higher estimated expenditure.     

Income-contingent loan with personal insurance policy: an empirical assessment using Spanish data

We propose an Income Contingent Loan that defers the payment of university fees and charges a fixed proportion of gross income for 30 years or until the debt is written off. Under these conditions, some participants in the scheme will have insufficient income to fully repay their loan balances. The deficit will be covered by the taxpayer, who ultimately bears the risk of investing in higher education. We then propose to transfer this risk to the student by adding a mandatory personal insurance policy to the individual loan. We calculate the premium required for the system to break even in Spain when everybody pays the insurance cost. Alternatively, the payment of the premium can be deferred, adding it to total debt. Then, some participants in the scheme will have insufficient income to even pay the insurance cost, and the premium needs to be increased to maintain the sustainability of the program. Although these mechanisms imply redistribution towards borrowers who end up being low earners, we show that middle-income individuals contribute a higher proportion of their incomes to covering for those unable to repay. To provide the system with more internal progressivity, we propose to impose a minimum period of repayment.     

外部冲击视角下的中国寿险需求分析——基于向量自回归模型及脉冲响应函数的动态计量检验

使用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,从外部冲击视角分析显示:农民收入以及社会保障体系是影响中国寿险需求的主要因素.一般而言,社保和商业寿险呈替代关系,但本文的实证结果意外证明了两者具有长期互补性.由此,作者衍生的政策建议是把增加农民收入作为拉动寿险需求的长期政策,不断完善社保机制,实现社保与寿险的良性互动.     

Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures

This paper decomposes the redistributive effect on annual and lifetime inquality of a range of taxes and transfers in Australia, using a dynamic cohort lifetime simulation model. The redistributive effect is decomposed into vertical, horizontal and reranking effects. Horizontal inequities in the tax and transfer system are found to be negligible. The extent of reranking is greater in the lifetime than in the annual context and is affected by the equivalence scales used to adjust household incomes. If no adjustment is made to household incomes, reranking is about nine per cent of the reduction in lifetime inequality. However, if each child is counted as equivalent to one-third of an adult, reranking is found to be less than one per cent.     

On the Provision of Insurance against Search‐Induced Wage Fluctuations*

Should workers be provided with insurance against search‐induced wage fluctuations? To answer this question, I rely on the numerical simulations of a model of on‐the‐job search and precautionary savings. The model is calibrated to low‐skilled workers in the United States. The extent of insurance is determined by the degree of progressivity of a non‐linear transfer schedule. The fundamental trade‐off is that a more generous provision of insurance reduces incentives to search for better‐paying jobs, which increases the cost of providing insurance. I show that progressivity raises the search intensity of unemployed workers, which reduces the equilibrium rate of unemployment, but it lowers the search intensity of employed job seekers, which reduces the output level. I also solve numerically for the optimal non‐linear transfer schedule. The optimal policy is to provide little insurance up to a monthly income level of $1350, so as to preserve incentives to move up the wage ladder, and nearly full insurance above $1450. This policy reduces the standard deviation of labor income net of transfers by 34 per cent and generates a consumption‐equivalent welfare gain of 0.7 per cent. The absence of private savings does not fundamentally change the shape of the optimal transfer function, but tilts the optimal policy towards more insurance, at the expense of a less efficient allocation of workers across jobs.     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本,发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应,相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下,险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比,并提高资产周转率,从而降低两类代理成本;持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识,同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

Immigrant Generation and Income in Australia*

Microdata for adult men from the 1981 Australian Census are used to study the determinants of income by immigrant generation. The overseas born, 30 per cent of adult males, have 5 per cent lower incomes than the native born, and ceteris paribus, 7 per cent lower incomes. Schooling and pre-immigration labour market experience have smaller effects for the overseas born. Among the Australian born, those with overseas-born parents have 4 per cent higher incomes overall, but, ceteris paribus, there is no difference. The means and partial effects of the explanatory variables among the native born are not related to the parents' nativity.     

Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Australia: A Minimum Disruption Approach

Abstract
While at the Toronto Conference in 1988, Australia adopted a target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent of 1988 levels by the year 2005, however action to reduce emissions has been negligible. Unilateral action is deemed too costly in terms of the negative effects it could have on employment, GDP growth, exports and international competitiveness .
Most Australian studies have evaluated the effect on such variables of employing a specified policy instrument, such as a carbon tax, to reduce emissions. This study instead uses an input-output method developed by Proops, Faber and Wagenhals (1993) to ascertain the minimum set of changes necessary in different sectors of the economy required to achieve the Toronto Target, where constraints on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth and the level of employment, are met. The cost of reducing emissions is defined here in terms of the required structural changes, when factors like GDP growth are held positive .
The results suggest that the necessary changes in various sectors under each of the scenarios are not far removed from the observed rates of change for Australia. The results are also consistent with those obtained for both Germany and the United Kingdom .     

Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work

This article compares five alternative policy options with the January 2006 tax and social security system. Each option is designed to cost a similar amount of approximately $5 billion per year to the government at the observed level of labour supply. The five options include reducing the lowest income tax rate, increasing the tax‐free threshold, increasing the low income tax offset, decreasing all taper rates on own and partner's incomes for a number of allowances, and introducing an earned income tax credit. The criteria for comparison are the labour supply responses, the expected budgetary cost to the government after taking into account labour supply responses, the number of winners and losers from the policy change, the effects on the distribution of effective marginal tax rates, and the effects on the number of jobless households. From the results, it is clear that the option to reduce taper rates is dominated by the other options on all criteria. The other four options each have their advantages and disadvantages; no option scores best on all criteria.     

茶农生物农药属性偏好及支付意愿研究——基于选择实验的实证分析

利用选择实验方法实证分析了茶农生物农药属性偏好和支付意愿。结果表明:(1)茶农偏好"缩短安全间隔期""不提前使用"和"不产生抗药性"的农药属性,但在"缩短安全间隔期"和"针对防治"上存在偏好异质性;(2)茶农愿为优化3类属性多支付16.974、22.250和11.272元/亩/年;(3)种植面积小、受教育年限长、化学农药危害认知程度高的茶农倾向于选择生物农药;(4)生物农药实际支付高于各属性加总的意愿支付,应关注生物农药外部性。     

Repeated Interaction and the Public Provision of Private Goods

The literature suggests that governments can use in-kind transfers to design efficient and targeted redistribution schemes if individual incomes are not directly observable. We investigate the extent to which the self-selection property of in-kind transfers carries through if redistributive transfers are made repeatedly. In a two-period setting, the government may gain information about the individuals' incomes in the first period and exploit this information for making targeted transfers in the second-period. This, however, also triggers changes in the individuals' behavior. If the government can commit to its future policy, the least cost policy may involve randomization between cash and in-kind transfers. Without commitment, the dynamic setting works against the government's interest. It may no longer be able to use in-kind transfers to generate information about the individuals' types.
JEL classification : H 42; H 2     

Standard Oriented Environmental Policy: Cost-Effectiveness and Incentives for 'Green Technology'

Abstract. In their seminal 1971 paper, W. J. Baumol and W. E. Oates analyzed effluent charges and 'command and control' regarding their ability to attain a given standard of environmental quality at minimum cost. In the subsequent literature,transferable discharge permits (TDPs) have been added to the portfolio of standard oriented environmental policy instruments. We place these instruments in a dynamic context. Here, cost minimization is defined in an intertemporal setting allowing for induced technical change. It turns out that the relative performance of alternative policy instruments regarding their 'dynamic cost-effectiveness' crucially depends on the information available to the involved agents. Under adverse informational conditions,only a TDP system with future markets is dynamically cost-effective.     

Cost Heterogeneity and the Potential Savings from Market-Based Policies

Policy makers and analysts are often faced with situations where it is unclear whether market-based instruments hold real promise of reducing costs, relative to conventional uniform standards. We develop analytic expressions that can be employed with modest amounts of information to estimate the potential cost savings associated with market-based policies, with an application to the environmental policy realm. These simple formulae can identify instruments that merit more detailed investigation. We illustrate the use of these results with an application to nitrogen oxides control by electric utilities in the United States.     

Absentee Ownership of Immobile Factors and Environmental Policies in a Federation

This paper studies the effects of absentee ownership of immobile factors on environmental policy of a jurisdiction in a federation. An increase in emissions in a jurisdiction increases factor incomes, but part of the increased factor incomes goes to absentee owners while only the residents of the jurisdiction bear the full disutility. In addition, the increase in emissions in a jurisdiction attracts capital and decreases capital in other jurisdictions, reducing the incomes that the residents of the jurisdiction earn from owning immobile factors in other jurisdictions. Absentee ownership thus reduces the marginal benefit of an increase in emissions while it leaves the marginal cost unaffected from the jurisdiction’s perspective. As a consequence, absentee ownership makes environmental policy of a jurisdiction too stringent relative to the efficient level. The paper also considers the effects of absentee ownership on environmental policy when goods trade is allowed.     

A SAVINGS SUBSIDISATION SYSTEM IN A MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH: AN EXTENSION OF WIGGER (1999)

Population ageing is now an established demographic characteristic of many economies. Economists working in the endogenous growth theory tradition have sought to model the relationship between public pensions, financed on a 'Pay-As-You-Go' basis, and the growth in per capita incomes. The resultant intergenerational wealth redistribution from young to older people seems to decrease private savings, diminish capital accumulation, and lower the growth of per capita incomes. The underlying transmission mechanism appears to be a crowding out effect in private capital markets contingent upon the introduction of public pension systems. A growing literature exists on the interrelationships between public pension schemes, fertility rates and endogenous growth. Following Wigger's (1999) pioneering overlapping generations endogenous growth model, we extend this model to examine the effects of a savings subsidisation system on the rate of per capita income growth, fertility and voluntary intrafamily wealth transfers, where parents view children both as an insurance good and a consumption good. Moreover, children care about the consumption levels of their parents. An increase in contributions to a savings subsidised public pension scheme will crowd out private intergenerational transfers from the young to the old and thereby negate the usefulness of children as an insurance good.     

How does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements?

We use data on UK banks׳ minimum capital requirements to study the interaction of monetary policy and capital requirement regulation. UK banks were subject to both time-varying capital requirements and changes in interest rate policy. Tightening of either capital requirements or monetary policy reduces the supply of lending. Lending by large banks reacts substantially to capital requirement changes, but not to monetary policy changes. Lending by small banks reacts to both. There is little evidence of interaction between these two policy instruments. The differences in the responses of small and large banks identify important distributional consequences within the financial system of these two policy instruments. Finally, our findings do not corroborate theoretical models that raise concerns about complex interactions between monetary policy and macro-prudential variation in capital requirements.     

Perspectives on Australian Retirement Incomes

With important developments over the past two decades in Australian retirement income policy, projected future outcomes—for the public purse, for the national economy and for the future retired—have received considerable attention. This focus on the future should not, however, cause us to lose sight of the present. While the major changes in retirement income policy outcomes will not occur for some decades, the picture for current and recent cohorts of retired people is not static. This article begins with an account of the important policy developments since the 1980s in the Australian retirement income arena—the Australian retirement income system still differs radically from that in most other countries, in relying heavily on a means‐tested income maintenance system, rather than on social insurance. The outcomes for current and recent cohorts of retired people are then examined from two perspectives. The first perspective is an examination of the incomes of the aged in the mid 1990s and of trends over the 1980s and 1990s—including consideration of changes in the level, composition and distribution of aged incomes. The second perspective is an international comparison of the incomes of the aged.