我国企业对东盟直接投资的金融对策研究

随着中国东盟自由贸易区的建成,中国与东盟的服务投资领域进一步的拓展,中国企业在东盟国家的投资将会得到进一步的提升。文章分析中国企业对东盟直接投资方面在金融上所面临的一些制约因素,以及如何改进我国的金融服务和加强金融合作为中国企业投资东盟服务。     

How to keep trade policy open: the case of Indonesia

We explore the ups and downs of trade protectionism in Indonesia since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The key constraints to unilateral trade reform include exchange rate factors, the political economy of consumer–producer behaviour, institutional complexity and global pressures. We conclude that trade reform is likely to face difficulties, with protectionism on the rise again, but that, during the temporary halt in the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of trade negotiations, Indonesia may be able to use regional and international engagement to counterbalance rising protectionism.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra‐Regional Trade?

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper examines ASEAN intra- and extra-regional bias in bilateral trade flows and how these relationships have altered over time. We pay particular attention to the periods before and after the signing of AFTA as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis. Given the 'openness' of ASEAN countries we consider not only intra-ASEAN trade but also the effect of AFTA on non-members. We find that trade flows were not significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement and also that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward-oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated by the AFTA process and/or the Asian economic crisis. We do find, however, that that one effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire to source imports from within the region.     

Clothes without an Emperor: Analysis of the preferential tariffs in ASEAN

This paper examines the current state of intra-ASEAN trade under the preferential regime of the AFTA. It partly addresses some data problems and employs a gravity model to arrive at alternative ways of gauging the importance of preferences in the absence of data on the actual utilisation of AFTA preferential tariffs. Our results show that although the range of products where AFTA might have an influence is limited, preferences seem to matter when the differential margin between the MFN and preferential tariff rates reaches a critical amount, allowing regional exporters to cover the costs of requesting preferences. However, at very high differential margins, the significance of AFTA preferences seems to wane. This indicates either the presence of non-tariff measures which prevent traders from exploiting the huge tariff discounts offered by the AFTA, and or, the propensity of ASEAN to extend high preferences on products where little or no intra-ASEAN trade takes place.     

The political economy of trade liberalization in developing countries

The paper addresses the issue of trade liberalization in developing countries from a political economy perspective using the theory of collective action. The role of collective action and interest group behavior is analysed critically both with respect to the initiation of attemps at liberalization and its outcome in terms of success or failure. A probit model is then used to test empirically the various hypotheses as to the determinants of likelihood of success of liberalization attempts. A sample of 51 liberalization episodes relating to 24 countries and spanning the period 1950–80 is used. Five factors are found to be critical in the process of liberalization: the strength of exporters groups as represented by the diversification and importance of manufactures and traditional exports, the strength of import-competing sector's opposition as measured by the share of manufacturing in GDP, the time elapsed since the beginning of import substitution, the size of country and the leadership committment and role.     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

Commitment and coordination in a dynamic game model of international economic policy-making

In this paper, we consider a dynamic game model of two identical countries. Policy-makers of both countries have quadratic intertemporal objective functions and want to stabilize domestic output, domestic inflation, and the real rate of exchange. We present different analytical and numerical solutions for this policy game. Noncooperative open-loop equilibria are interpreted as requiring unilateral commitment and policy-makers' credibility. Potential gains from cooperation are present, as the noncooperative equilibrium solutions are not Pareto-optimal. Under an information pattern that admits memory strategies, the possibility of obtaining cooperative results without coordination and commitment arises.     

东盟旅游合作：动力、障碍及机制研究

不同政府层面的参与加快东盟旅游合作的进程。文章对2002年以来东盟旅游合作的进展进行综述,探讨东盟旅游合作的动因和限制因素。研究发现,东盟旅游一体化进程中,在旅游便利化和人力资源开发方面已经取得了一定的成效,但是总体上效果仍不尽满意。文章以跨边界的视野提出了一个跨国旅游合作的分析框架,从合作主体、合作资源、合作过程与机制三个维度来解释旅游合作的动力和限制因素,认为应加强合作组织关系建设,以促进东盟旅游一体化的形成。     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

The political economy of services trade liberalization: a case for international regulatory cooperation?

Little progress has been made since the creation of the WTOon expanding and deepening the coverage of services liberalizationcommitments. This paper identifies and discusses five hypothesesthat may explain the absence of dynamism: (i) technologicalchanges allowing ever more services to be traded cross-borderunaffected by policy; (ii) strong incentives to pursue liberalizationon an autonomous basis (unilaterally); (iii) perceptions thatbilateral or regional cooperation are a good substitute forthe WTO; (iv) standard political-economy factors, such as adjustmentcosts and resistance by incumbents to erosion of rents; and(v) concerns that the WTO will affect the ability of regulatorsto enforce national norms. We argue that all of these explanationsplay a role, and that some of these factors significantly impedethe scope for reciprocal exchanges of ‘concessions’—theengine of WTO negotiations.     

日本与东盟贸易关系的发展及其问题

近40年来,日本与东盟一直互为重要的贸易伙伴。从上世纪80年代中期至今,双边贸易额剧增,进出口商品结构也发生了显著变化。日本在出口技术密集的高附加值产品的同时,从东盟进口的初级产品比重减少,制成品进口比重迅速增加。但这只是资本全球化、区域经济一体化形势下,部门内非熟练劳动与技术交换的垂直分工形式,并不能说是水平分工。东盟仍是日本重要的资源供应地、生产基地和工业品市场。     

The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation

Cross-country differences in the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade is one reason for cross-country differences in estimated exchange rate coefficients in short-run balance of trade equations. If exports are invoiced in domestic currency while imports are invoiced in a foreign currency, a depreciation will increase the domestic currency value of outstanding import contracts, and may cause the balance of trade to fall in the short run. Countries with different invoicing patterns will have different effects on the short-run trade balance following a depreciation. We explore a simple theory of invoicing currency choice, drawing inferences regarding the likely choices for 14 countries. This allows a classification of countries according to the expected short-run balance of trade effect of a currency depreciation. Empirical estimates support the hypothesized groupings based on suggested currency invoicing patterns.     

中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的困境摆脱及其前景

运用相关指标对一体化水平进行的研究表明,中国与东盟国家的服务贸易一体化显示出以下特点:跨境贸易规模扩大;双边贸易增长率比单个国家快;以直接投资近似表现的商业存在规模占本国对外直接投资比重大;投资的行业和地区分布非均衡等。现阶段中国—东盟服务贸易一体化水平较低,但增长速度远远超过欧盟等区域组织。中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的前景看好。     

服务业FDI和对我国服务贸易竞争力的影响

在经济全球化的进程中,FDI成为利用境外资源和市场的标志性手段,虽然对于FDI对东道国经济贡献存在一系列争论,但是数据显示FDI对于第二产业的发展起到了很大的推动作用,同时也带动着我国在货物贸易方面的发展。然而伴随着服务业管制放松、服务贸易自由化的制度安排以及服务业的特殊性质,使得全球外商直接投资(FDI)的重点已转向服务业。与英美等服务贸易强国相比,我国的服务贸易还存在着相当大的差距。本文通过实证分析得出目前服务业FDI的流入并没有如同制造业那样带来服务贸易国际竞争力的增加,并从三个方面分析了出现这种现象的原因和改进措施。     

A generalized multi-country endogenous growth model

The transitional dynamics of open-economy endogenous growth models are largely unexplored. The present paper fills this gap in the literature. By applying the familiar Travis–Dixit–Norman (Dixit and Norman, Theory of International Trade, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1980) approach to a general class of growth models, it provides original results on the transitional dynamics of the multi-country open-economy versions of several prominent special cases, including the models of Romer (J Polit Econ, 94:1002–1037, 1986; J Polit Econ 98:S71–S102, 1990), Lucas (J Monet Econ, 22:3–42, 1988), Grossman and Helpman (Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991a, Chaps. 3 and 4; Rev Econ Stud 58:43–61, 1991b), Jones (J Polit Econ, 103:759–784, 1995a), and Segerstrom (Am Econ Rev, 88:1290–1310, 1998). This approach also shows that, in the class of models considered, the question of whether or not international economic integration accelerates growth in the long run is equivalent to the question of whether or not scale effects prevail.      

基于SWOT分析的广西对东盟旅游服务贸易发展策略研究

东盟旅游市场是广西旅游服务贸易的一个重要市场。本文运用SWOT分析方法,根据广西对东盟旅游服务贸易的优势、劣势以及面临的机遇和威胁,对政府、行业和企业提出了提高旅游服务贸易竞争力的策略。     

中国与东盟国家果蔬贸易自由化博弈分析

中国与东盟国家在果蔬产品上具有很强的互补性,通过中国-东盟自由贸易区的不断发展,中国与东盟国家果蔬产品贸易自由化在博弈中也取得了很大的发展,本文讨论了中国与东盟国家果蔬贸易的"囚徒困境"和中国充当"智猪博弈"中的大猪的情况,并分析了充当大猪后中国的收益,最后总结中国在进一步博弈中的策略取向。