The spillover effects of target interest rate news from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank on the Asia-Pacific stock markets

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the U.S. Fed's and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s target interest rate news on the market returns and return volatilities of 12 stock markets in the Asia-Pacific over the period 1999–2006. The news spillover effects on the returns are generally consistent with the literature where a majority of stock markets shows significant negative returns in response to unexpected rate rises. While the results of the speed of adjustment for the Fed's news are mixed across the markets, the ECB news was absorbed slowly, in general. The return volatilities were higher in response to the interest rate news from both sources. In addition, both the Fed and the ECB news elicited tardy or persisting volatility responses. These findings have important implications for all levels of market participants in the Asia-Pacific stock markets.     

Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?

Interest rate decisions by central banks are universally discussed in terms of Taylor rules, which describe policy rates as responding to inflation and some measure of the output gap. We show that an alternative specification of monetary policy, in which the interest rate tracks the Wicksellian efficient rate of return as the primary indicator of real activity, fits the U.S. data better than otherwise identical Taylor rules. This result holds for a variety of specifications of the other ingredients of the policy rule, including the output gap, and of private agents׳ behavior.     

The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on REITs returns over a monthly period from 1972:01 to 2015:12, and sub-samples from 1972:01 to 2009:06, and 2009:07 to 2015:12, to accommodate for the possible effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy decisions. We use the recently-proposed variations in the price of gold, around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty as an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Moreover, to control for news-related effects associated with these events, uncertainty and news shocks are jointly identified based on a set-identified proxy SVAR, as recently suggested in the VAR literature. Our results show that the uncertainty shock generates a larger negative impact on REITs returns over the post-GFC period to the extent that it also outweighs the impact of the otherwise dominant news (productivity) shocks. In addition, the impulse response dynamics related to the recursively identified uncertainty shock, as is standard in the literature, resembles the effects of a news shock, and somewhat contrary to intuition suggests that the impact of the uncertainty shock on REITs returns were higher during the pre-GFC era.     

The Influence of U.S. GAAP on the Harmony of Accounting Measurement Policies of Large Companies in the U.K. and Australia

U.S. GAAP has increasingly become an influence on accounting practices in other countries, even aside from those traditionally considered under direct U.S. influence. The change arises from the large number of U.S. accounting standards, non-U.S. companies listing on U.S. stock exchanges, and the amount of U.S. direct investment abroad. As the impact of U.S. GAAP varies across countries, it may affect international accounting harmony. This idea is tested by examining the level of international harmony for eleven accounting measurement policies in matched pairs of large companies from Australia and the U.K., two countries with historically strong cultural and economic links. It is argued that, in recent decades, accounting practice in Australia, more so than in the U.K., has become increasingly U.S.-oriented. The concepts of harmony of Tay and Parker (1990) and Archer et al . (1996) are employed. International harmony is measured by the between-country C index and chi-square test; national harmony by van der Tas's (1988) H index. While considerable national harmony is found in the U.K. for seven and in Australia for five accounting policies, there is considerable or complete international harmony for only three policies. Evidence is presented of the influence of U.S. GAAP as one factor explaining the poor degree of U.K./Australia international harmony. Australian companies appear to follow U.S. GAAP to a greater extent than do U.K. companies. The state of partial harmony thus existing restricts international comparability of accounting reports and may cause problems for regulators.     

美国乔治敦大学访问观察与启示(一)——师资管理

本文介绍了美国乔治顿大学师资管理制度,并总结出其三大特点,借以提出我们在学习和借鉴国外先进经验的同时,应从我国高校师资队伍建设的实际情况出发,不断改进和完善现行的政策措施,为建设高素质的教师队伍而做出努力。     

Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the U.S. and Malaysia

Previous research that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of Malaysia concentrated only on the aggregate exports of Malaysia to the rest of the world. In this paper we first concentrate on the trade flows between Malaysia and the U.S. After showing that exchange rate volatility has neither short-run nor long-run effect on the trade flows between the two countries, we disaggregate the trade data by industry and consider the experience of 101 U.S. exporting industries to Malaysia and 17 U.S. importing industries from Malaysia. While exchange rate volatility seems to have significant short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries, short-run effects translate into the long run only in a limited number of small industries.     

Modeling the time varying volatility of housing returns: Further evidence from the U.S. metropolitan condominium markets

This study extends the literature on modeling the volatility of housing returns to the case of condominium returns for five major U.S. metropolitan areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco). Through the estimation of ARMA models for the respective condominium returns, we find volatility clustering of the residuals. The results from an ARMA‐TGARCH‐M model reveal the absence of asymmetry in the conditional variance. Dummy variables associated with the housing market collapse unique to each metropolitan area were statistically insignificant in the conditional variance equation, but negative and statistically significant in the mean equation. Condominium markets in Los Angeles and San Francisco exhibit the greatest persistence to volatility shocks.     

探析中美贸易逆差的原因及影响

近年来,随着中美经贸关系的日益紧密,分析不断扩大的美中贸易逆差具有十分重要的意义。本文主要研究了美中贸易逆差的原因和影响,结构安排如下：首先交代了研究背景,通过一些数据介绍了美中贸易逆差的现状,批出研究此问题的必要性。第二部分,分别采用国际收支平衡原理和要素禀赋定理两种方法进行分析,得出美国的国内政策是造成美国经济项目赤字的主要原因的结论,同进批出了一些流行说法的纰漏之处。可以看到,在全球储蓄结构巨大失衡情况下,单单通过削减美国财政赤字或通过人民币升值,都不有解决巨额美中贸易逆差。这一问题的解决需要中美双方的政策协调。     

A statistical comparison of the short-term interest rate models for Japan,U.S., and Germany

We propose a simple and practical model selection method for continuous time models. We apply the method to several continuous time short-term interest rate models using discrete time series data of Japan, U.S. and Germany. All the models can be easily estimated from discrete observations, and their performances can be evaluated in a uniform statistical framework. The models that allow dependence of volatility on the level of interest rates tend to perform well empirically. The degree of volatility dependence on the interest rate levels seems to be different across the countries. For the German data, we observe that a model with nonlinear drift performs better than the best linear drift model.     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

美国洪水保险计划的运营启示

在我国,洪水灾害是主要的自然灾害之一。然而,洪水保险制度却迟迟未能建立。本文搜集和分析有关美国洪水保险计划(NFIP)的最新文献,对以NFIP为代表的政府主导洪水保险运营模式进行了历史脉络的梳理,研究了其法制发展、运营现状、模式特色以及出现的问题,最后对洪水保险的政府运营模式进行了启发式的总结和建议。     

美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计研究

上世纪90年代开始的美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计改革是联邦政府加强财务管理的一项重要内容。经过多次改革,形成了以权责发生制为主要会计计量基础的联邦政府财务报告体系,和以审计署的外部审计与监察长办公室的内部审计相结合的联邦政府财务报告审计模式。当前这种财务报告体系与审计模式仍处于发展与完善过程中,需不断改进财务信息质量和强化审计的作用。     

美国证券域外纠纷诉权新解

2010年6月美国联邦最高法院审结的莫里森案,是美国证券法发展史上的重要节点,代表了全球化背景下最大资本市场在处理涉外欺诈纠纷问题上的转向。以往的行为和影响标准被否定,交易标准得到强调,《证券交易法》第10(b)条的适用范围被限缩,存托凭证和国外基础证券受到区别对待。此后一年间,尽管不无争议,莫里森案判决和交易标准被下级法院广泛援引,并经受住了Dodd-Frank法案的考验。由此释放出的信号包括,美国有意愿加强公共执法和国际多边合作。     

美国的新贸易保护主义与我国必须应对的挑战

美国对中国的巨额贸易逆差主要是美国自身的产业结构问题造成的,并且美国实行限制对中国高技术转让的贸易政策,自己封闭了实现贸易平衡的渠道。在WTO机制下,美国一方面坐享贸易自由化的成果,另一方面又不愿其他国家也分得一杯羹;旨在推行世界贸易自由化的世贸组织,也对各国的贸易争端持务实的态度,承认贸易保护在双边和多边谈判中的重要作用,这是美国的新贸易保护主义盛行的本质原因。美国等西方国家的贸易保护政策严重损害了我国的贸易利益,我们必须妥善应对。     

中国高额持有美国国债的风险与对策

美国国债曾是公认的最安全的投资品。2001年以来,中国持有的美国国债随外汇储备的快速增长而增加;美国国债规模也随美国"双赤字"的扩大而膨胀。美国的政治生态及美元的霸权特性使得美国的"双赤字"难于控制,美国国债的潜在风险日益显现。中国主要面临退出困难及债权资产实际价值可能大幅缩水的困扰。建议中国利用最大债主的地位制约美国以维护自身权益;同时控制外汇储备增量优化外汇储备结构以掌握风险控制的主动权。     

Individual investors’ attitudes towards listing requirements for foreign entities on U.S. stock exchanges and the promulgation of international accounting standards

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently requires foreign issuers of securities listed on U.S. securities exchanges to either employ U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) or include a statement of reconciliation to U.S. GAAP if they use their home country's accounting standards. With some exceptions, they are also required to comply with the provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOA). John Thain, CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, states that these requirements hamper U.S. investments, economic growth, and employment opportunities. The Chairman of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), Sir David Tweedie, echoed Thain's comments. An important stakeholder who is affected significantly by the U.S. listing requirements is the U.S. individual investor. Accordingly this study examines their attitudes involving the extant rules for foreign listings on U.S. exchanges and other aspects of the issue. The study also examines their perceptions regarding accounting standard promulgation authority and the use of a global set of accounting principles. The results indicate that although U.S. investors are very much in favor of the listing of foreign companies on U.S. exchanges, they also endorse the current rule requiring either employment of U.S. GAAP or reconciliation to it as well as mandatory adherence to the SOA. In the area of accounting standards, although a large majority believed that the U.S. should control the accounting standards for U.S. listings, a smaller majority also believed that there should be a universal set of accounting principles for all stock exchanges.     

美国经常账户失衡:表现、理论与政策——兼驳伯南克“世界储蓄过剩”论

本文考察了美国经常账户失衡的发展过程,指出了其对手方的国别与地区结构特点,随后总结了对该现象的有关研究和解释。文章简述了伯南克世界储蓄过剩论,指出了该观点论证逻辑中的错误,然后分析了其理论分析框架——储蓄缺口模型与新古典增长模型对美国经常账户失衡解释的不适用。     

美国金融监管制度改革的新趋势及启示

本文基于美国国会于2010年7月15日通过的《金融监管改革法案》,比较了次贷危机前后美国金融监管制度的异同,特别是针对美国在反思其传统监管模式基础上从预防系统性风险角度出发所进行的金融监管改革的新趋势,提出了美国金融监管制度改革对我国金融业未来发展以及金融监管改革的启示。     

信用评级行业竞争和规制:美国的经验和启示

美国信用评级行业高度集中,标普、穆迪是评级市场的统治者。美国证券交易委员会对国家认可的统计评级机构(NRSROs)的指定以及基于监管目的广泛使用NRSROs概念导致评级行业的准入壁垒。声誉资本、网络效应以及评级透明也是影响信用评级行业竞争状况的因素。为了增进评级行业竞争,美国已经加强对信用评级机构的法律监管,并正在酝酿新一轮的竞争规制措施和改革方案。美国的经验和做法对于我国刚刚起步的信用评级行业的发展具有借鉴意义。     

美国投资银行危机及其转型剖析

本文通过分析美国投资银行经营模式的缺陷,找出2008年美国投资银行危机及其转型的深刻原因。分析结果显示,融资模式的缺陷、过度依赖高风险业务是美国投资银行危机的内因,而外部监管漏洞放任了投资银行的经营管理,是投资银行危机的重要外因。投资银行危机促使美国主要独立投资银行转型为全能银行经营模式,这是美国银行业发展一个重要的转折点。但危机仅仅是投资银行转型的诱因,全能银行经营模式的相对优势是美国独立投资银行转型的根本原因。